Hurricane Gustav (forcast models in first post) Be safe those in the path!

[dennis99ss]

Don't freak out about the newest models, but...
The latest computer models have been released and they reflect a distinct shift westward, toward Texas, for Hurricane Gustav's path. This almost certainly presages a similar shift in the National Hurricane Center's forecast track that will be released at 4 p.m. CT.

Here are most of the models we care about:


Weather Underground

Each of the newest models now appear to show an influence from a high pressure system forecast to build southward from the Great Lakes region, which would push Gustav west. What this means is that we're looking at storm that will probably make landfall in Louisiana or Texas.

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I cannot overstate the tendency of models to flip-flop with their forecasts like a pair of windshield wipers, so it's entirely plausible that the models will move back toward eastern Louisiana tonight. But as of now the computers foresee a greater chance of a Texas storm than they did this morning.

And seeing that they all now mark the influence of the Great Lakes high pressure system, my sense is that this trend in the models might just be something that sticks.

Areas from Corpus Christi to New Orleans appear to be at the greatest risk of a direct hit by Gustav. As I mentioned in the chat earlier today, my prediction for the last couple of days has been the Texas-Louisiana border. We shall see, as much uncertainty remains and I don't think we'll really know with Gustav until at least Sunday morning.

 

[Gina]

Please stay safe everyone - evacuate if you are supposed to!

And DON'T evacuate if you're NOT supposed to!! That was a huge part of the Rita evacuation nightmare... people in extremely landlocked areas, plenty safe, deciding to leave anyway -- right when people down here in the coastal counties were trying to comply with the mandatory evacuation orders.


On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!


Okay, off my rant box now... lol

I hope that everyone is prepared, and stays safe!

 

[NotUrsula]

LSU has just announced that the game time for the season opener has been moved up. The game will now begin at 10 Saturday morning, instead of late afternoon, presumably so that they can get all of the game traffic cleared from I-10/I-12 before contraflow needs to begin.

 

[Shutterbug]

On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!

That is true....look at Hurricane Charley. At the last minute it made a turn and slammed into Punta Gorda instead of Tampa where they thought he was going to hit.

 

[S. C.]

Sending prayers your way-please be safe everyone.x.

Me too! Prayers said for everyone in the storms path.

 

[yankeechick]

And DON'T evacuate if you're NOT supposed to!! That was a huge part of the Rita evacuation nightmare... people in extremely landlocked areas, plenty safe, deciding to leave anyway -- right when people down here in the coastal counties were trying to comply with the mandatory evacuation orders.


On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!


Okay, off my rant box now... lol

I hope that everyone is prepared, and stays safe!

 

[Shutterbug]

From NHC 5pm update:

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

The whole report:

000
WTNT42 KNHC 292100
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008

VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO
FORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
THAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH
BENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN
RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA. PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT
LIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE
FORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH
SLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND
DESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT
96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.

GUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW
MOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE
THAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL
REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS. THERE ARE IMPORTANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS. THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO
DIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. MODELS WITH
THE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF
GUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN
WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS. OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND
HWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FARTHER EAST. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
LATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DUE TO THE NOTABLE
MODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN
IMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.

 

[rie'smom]

On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!


Okay, off my rant box now... lol

I hope that everyone is prepared, and stays safe!

I wish the models weren't pointed towards Louisiana. Most of the news outlets are making a big deal of LA and New Orleans because of Katrina. Believe me, those who have lost everything would be more than happy to not have the attention focused if they could have back the way of life that's gone.
If people you know really do have the " "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations" attitude, they're idiots.
Would you rather have the attention focused on your area because it was devastated?

 

[TigerKat]

I wish the models weren't pointed towards Louisiana. Most of the news outlets are making a big deal of LA and New Orleans because of Katrina. Believe me, those who have lost everything would be more than happy to not have the attention focused if they could have back the way of life that's gone.
If people you know really do have the " "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations" attitude, they're idiots.
Would you rather have the attention focused on your area because it was devastated?

Well said and SO true.

 

[Shutterbug]

Tropical Storm Watch issued for the lower florida keys

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS.

 

[Shutterbug]

I know I mentioned before but if Gustav does move west of N.O. this could put N.O. in a BIGGER danger of higher winds and higher storm surge due to the counter clockwise motion of the storm.

 

[Nancy]

And DON'T evacuate if you're NOT supposed to!! That was a huge part of the Rita evacuation nightmare... people in extremely landlocked areas, plenty safe, deciding to leave anyway -- right when people down here in the coastal counties were trying to comply with the mandatory evacuation orders.


On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!


Okay, off my rant box now... lol

I hope that everyone is prepared, and stays safe!

A lot off topic here..but Gina..I agree about Dixie Landings. It was my first ever stay on property an I still call it that.

Back on topic.I've been reading here and hoping that where ever it decides to hit down there that everyone stays safe and out of harms way.

 

[Amlee]

And DON'T evacuate if you're NOT supposed to!! That was a huge part of the Rita evacuation nightmare... people in extremely landlocked areas, plenty safe, deciding to leave anyway -- right when people down here in the coastal counties were trying to comply with the mandatory evacuation orders.


On a related note, I am really not liking the 2pm model map... They keep making such a big dang deal about New Orleans and Louisiana, it's like the media as a whole has forgotten that there are other states along the coast who are in as much potential trouble. But I have spoken with several people who have said "Oh, the weather people say it's going to Louisiana, so we're not making any preparations", and they don't seem to realize just how unpredictable this storm has been so far, and it's WAY too early to say anyone along the coast is in the clear. There are just too many variables, and the storm isn't even in the Gulf yet!


Okay, off my rant box now... lol

I hope that everyone is prepared, and stays safe!

One thing that has always bothered me and will ALWAYS bother me. Is the fact that New Orleans did not take a direct hit from Katrina. Mississippi did!

 

[Planogirl]

Stupid levees. If the Corps of Engineers just would do their jobs.

I'm hoping this thing will just veer off to.... ???? That's the trouble, I don't know where it should go.

 

[Shutterbug]

One thing that has always bothered me and will ALWAYS bother me. Is the fact that New Orleans did not take a direct hit from Katrina. Mississippi did!

Exactly, you were more east getting the brunt of the storm and the huge storm surge. I remember the photos of the beach casino boats.

I am with you how all the media was all zeroed in on N.O. and seem to ignore the rest.

edited to make content correct..

 

[Shutterbug]

The 8:00pm models are almost in total agreement. Whats really scary is its like a straight line. I have a feeling that the actual path will wobble and turn this way and that but with those models its like Louisana has a bullseye on it that Gustav is headed straight for.

 

[rie'smom]

Exactly, you were more west getting the brunt of the storm and the huge storm surge. I remember the photos of the beach casino boats.

I am with you how all the media was all zeroed in on N.O. and seem to ignore the rest.

Mississippi is East of New Orleans.

 

[Shutterbug]

Mississippi is East of New Orleans.

You are right.. I mean EAST side...man when get things backwards I really get them backwards...I kept telling people today that I needed lawn the mow when I got home

Thank you for correcting me

Now I need to make all those corrections...grrrrr

 

[TigerKat]

Exactly, you were more east getting the brunt of the storm and the huge storm surge. I remember the photos of the beach casino boats.

I am with you how all the media was all zeroed in on N.O. and seem to ignore the rest.

edited to make content correct..

Maybe because of the loss of lives we suffered.

 

[Shutterbug]

Maybe because of the loss of lives we suffered.

as did Mississippi....