Hurricane Gustav (forcast models in first post) Be safe those in the path!

[rie'smom]

The good thing is the waters right off the coast are a little cooler, so it probably wouldn't go inland as a Cat 5.
The bad thing is someplace is going to get a Cat 5 surge.

 

[Seahunt]

And today is the 3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina (August 29, 2005).

Please stay safe everyone - evacuate if you are supposed to!

Your possessions mean nothing, your life means everything

 

[JB111107]

DH was tracking the water temps in the area today (he was in weather before changing careers in the AF) and thinks that NO won't get the brunt of things but probably will see landfall. He's basing that on the fact that the warmer waters are farther west in the gulf, which is going to draw the storm that way, and allow it to pick up in intensity. He's predicting a landfall closer to Galveston than New Orleans, but its just a prediction. (and quite possibly a little bit of wishful thinking, as he really doesn't want to be any farther from home than he has to be if he's deployed down there)

I think Jindal has shown himself to be proactive rather than reactive in regards to preparations for this storm. Aid is already waiting and on standby from various places, and hopefully most people will abide by the warnings and get out while it is offered.

I'm ready for the next week or so to be over with now. Keeping all the coastal people in my thoughts and prayers.

 

[Shutterbug]

If the storm goes west of NO that might me actually worse for them.
Look at the storm surge that hit Mississippi from Katrina.

 

[Shutterbug]

From NHC's 5am discussion:

AFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE
VERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY
QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION
BEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME
MODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH
CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV
AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A
LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

 

[Shutterbug]

Current computer models:

 

[MrsKreamer]

How is everyone doing this morning?

 

[ImMarcik]

I woke up a bit nervous.

 

[rie'smom]

The models have switched from further east back to pretty much where they were yesterday. All I can say is everyone from Galveston to Pensacola keep your eyes and ears open.
Katrina was all set to go ashore at Ft. Walton Beach. 9 hours before landfall, Katrina turned and we all know what happened.
Until landfall, no one, including the pros know exactly where a hurricane is going.

 

[Jenvenza]

I am a bit nervous, too. We took a direct hit from Rita 3 years ago, and it is not something I want anyone to have to go through again.

Just go back out into open waters and stay there, Gustav!!

 

[Shutterbug]

From Natinal Hurricane Centers 11 am advisory:

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. GUSTAV COULD
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING WESTERN CUBA.


AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

I have a feeling that the NHC thinks Gustav will hurricane by 2pm and thats the reasone for the intermediate advisory at 2pm

 

[yankeechick]

everybody stay safe. we are leaving for tyler sat afternoon!

 

[5Slays]

MS governor just issued a mandatory evacuation for 2 coast counties. Looks like it will be a busy weekend!

 

[Snowy-girls]

Sending prayers your way-please be safe everyone.x.

 

[Amlee]

Is that these people will leave and nothing will happen in their area. Good news! But the next time or the time after that, they will not be so quick to leave and will end up caught like they did in Katrina.

Katrina was a 360 year storm for New Orleans. Galvestion hasn't been wiped out since the 1900 storm that still to this day holds the record for the deadlist natural disaster in U.S. History.

 

[coteau_chick]

Is that these people will leave and nothing will happen in their area. Good news! But the next time or the time after that, they will not be so quick to leave and will end up caught like they did in Katrina.

Katrina was a 360 year storm for New Orleans. Galvestion hasn't been wiped out since the 1900 storm that still to this day holds the record for the deadlist natural disaster in U.S. History.

You are so right. People leave and sit in traffic for hours and when nothing happened they decide to stay next time. I feel like that too but I can't risk to take a chance. Lots of my cousins lost everything for Katrina. The month before Katrina hit a storm came through and my cousin who lived near Venice Louiaiana evacuated to my house. She brought everything but her kitchen sink. Nothing happened and she had to unpack all that when she got home. When Katrina came along a few weeks later she just brought what she needed for a couple of nights. I am sure you can figure out the rest. She lost pictures and everything else she and her family had. Film from her recent Disney World trip and her Colorado trip. Stuff you can't replace. Her house floated blocks away from where she lived. I just have that in my mind right now. I don't feel like packing everything but I am NOT taking a chance. I live in New Iberia which is along the central La coast.

 

[THE HAT]

my thoughts and prayers are with you all...I can't even begin to imagine what any of you are feeling, please stay safe.

 

[Shutterbug]

Its official...what we all new was going to happen. Gustav is now a hurricane

From 3:15 NHC update:

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.

 

[TigerKat]

Its official...what we all new was going to happen. Gustav is now a hurricane

From 3:15 NHC update:

And now it just grows.....

 

[yankeechick]

yes the 1900 storm was really bad. there are alot of ghost stories about the children who died in the storm. i got married in a church that surived the 1900 storm! well i will keep praying for everyone. i hate that someone will get hit.