Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[becauseimnew]

Did you try to put an offer on this one? If I remember correctly this is what you have been looking for?

I have not, I usually wait a day or 2 before I put in my lowball offer, don’t want to seem desperate.

 

[glamdring269]

It is going to be interesting to see what the next few days/couple of weeks bring (depends on how long it takes for an agreement). If the federal unemployment relief is dropped from $600 to $200 then that is going to be a significant cash flow blow to our economy. I don't know how many people receiving that type of relief are barely hanging on to DVC contracts but I do expect it to have a ripple that will indirectly impact others who may not be on unemployment but who may also be impacted if this relief is removed.

 

[firedust]

We put in an offer on Saturday on an extended OKW contract thru Fidelity. I have not heard anything from them other than the canned "we got your offer" email. I guess we'll hold off a little longer and see what happens with the economy in the coming months and see if we find an even better deal.

 

[sethschroeder]

Hoping the prices are coming down across the board because the margins vary far and wide from what I'm seeing site to site.

What is happening is more price reduction and people taking prices further below posted price based on one of the 3 main resellers that I talked with.

 

[bookwormde]

I’m seeing multiple listings on DVC Resale App notifications that show Relisted as a status.

I do not use the app, if you give me the contract numbers I can try and check

 

[chunks]

I do not use the app, if you give me the contract numbers I can try and check

Ss41657 is a“relist”

 

[bookwormde]

Ss41657 is a“relist”

1657 was not posted in the standard sequence back in june there were 2 1656 contracts listed so they may be fixing that duplication. one was 160 june points for $99 and the other 160 December points for $111

 

[bookwormde]

7/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site

 

[bookwormde]

Active listing levels and changes since 7 days ago

DVC resale 302 down 2

Fidelity 145 down 2

TSS 147 down 7

 

[CastAStone]

Active listing levels and changes since 7 days ago

DVC resale 302 down 2

Fidelity 145 down 2

TSS 147 down 7

For a reference point I had: DVC Resale Market at:
450 active listings on 4/7
404 active listings on 4/14
367 active listings on 4/21
381 active listings on 4/28
354 active listings on 5/5
310 active listings on 5/12
294 active listings on 5/17
279 active listings on 5/27
258 active listings on 6/2

I stopped tracking all listings at that point because I narrowed my own search, but anecdotally it dropped into the 240s and slowly started rising at about the beginning of July.

I didn't track TSS or Fidelity.

 

[chunks]

The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere. Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?

 

[striker1064]

The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere. Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?

I can think of several reasons off the top of my head...

Closed/limited parks - DVC is significantly longer-term than a 4 month closure. DVC is, at a resort's inception, a 50 year contract. Making decisions based on even one year is a recipe for losing a lot of money.
Job loss - Potentially, but the extra $600 weekly unemployment hasn't run out yet.

Also, this tends to be a slower time for DVC sales in general. There are always more listing near year-end. Why? Maintenance fee bills come in December/January. Those who pay in full for the year and have a paid off contract essentially owe nothing for DVC until the next round of MF bills post, which is still several months away. So if you got a lot of enjoyment out of DVC previously and you are not actively making any payments on it, why sell it? It's a luxury item, and people tend to hold on to luxury items as long as they can.

It's been said repeatedly on these boards, but it's worth mentioning again - the real glut of DVC sales lagged behind the Great Recession by almost a year. Expect to see more listings this winter and next year. It's not terribly surprising there aren't a lot of contracts right now. Plus, buyers think they can get a screaming deal, and sellers are likely hesitant to put anything up right now because of how many lowball offers they'll get, so if they can afford to wait it out, they will.

 

[TCRAIG]

I keep hearing about maintenance bills’ impact on listing - makes me wonder how many pay yearly and how many pay monthly?

 

[CastAStone]

I keep hearing about maintenance bills’ impact on listing - makes me wonder how many pay yearly and how many pay monthly?

I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.

I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.

 

[Ruttangel]

Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference.

 

[hlhlaw07]

I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.

I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.

I pay once a year as I usually catch a sale on Disney gift cards towards the end of the year. BJ’s usually puts on a pretty nice sale if you buy in bulk. Gives a good discount on the dues.

 

[sethschroeder]

I pay once a year as I usually catch a sale on Disney gift cards towards the end of the year. BJ’s usually puts on a pretty nice sale if you buy in bulk. Gives a good discount on the dues.

Yup pay yearly, with gift card, and don't worry about it.

I can't imagine the number are that different because I am not going to be calling monthly to pay with a Gift Card so I would just let auto-pay take care of it (just don't want to worry about it).

If I could do autopay with a gift card then I would do that or if I had some crazy $5k-$10k-$20k in MFs I would pay monthly as well.

 

[becauseimnew]

Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference. View attachment 514592

That’s how I did my calculations, where did you find a Boardwalk contract for $95?!! Great price.

 

[Ruttangel]

That’s how I did my calculations, where did you find a Boardwalk contract for $95?!! Great price.

Got lucky, was up for $119 on a site and got a low offer accepted, I can’t link on here sadly, still a reputable one though. Title co. Is J Sweet which also seems well used on here in closing thread

 

[CastAStone]

Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference. View attachment 514592

I'd suggest if you're taking any money from savings OR if you're spending money that you would have otherwise put into savings OR if you're financing, that you shouldn't straightline the "burnout" of the contract buy in.

If you want to discount the out years to account for opportunity cost / cost of capital / time value of money, the number of years you would divide the buy in by would be (1-(r^n))/(1-r) where r is the savings rate AFTER inflation (so if your retirement savings is earning 8% it should be about 6%) and n is the number of years left. While this makes all of the numbers "worse" in terms of payback, it improves the standing of the 2042 resorts vis-a-vis the other resorts considerably.

If one is financing the math is more complicated, and worse.