Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[CastAStone]

Do you have data on all the resorts? My theory has been that listings were SSR/OKW heavy but I always like to check my hypothesis against data.

Here is chart of the approximate % of total DVC points sold to date by the resort they are tied to. I stress approximate because I have guessed at Riviera and Aulani. In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points. In reality, the older resorts had higher buy in minimums, so there are usually a lower % of OKW, BWV, HHI, etc contracts listed than points listed. You can check this against the various resale sites, a few tell you how many contracts are available, others you have to count (or drop the info into excel and make excel count)

 

[bookwormde]

I think the question was around total active listings, not new listings. Do you track that?

not broadly,

active listings fluctuate around a trend line, I do not closely track TSS, for active resales but yes as the reseller you referenced was dropping (about 6) active listings, TSS went up about that many or even a few more

 

[Dismrk155]

Awith COVID nowhere near under control you might be better off waiting till mid-year 2021 before buying.

 

[Brian Noble]

In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points

There are some other factors that can influence this across a period of years. There are a few moments when folks who purchased reconsider their ownerships. One is a few years after buying, having discovered that the return trips are not as wonderful as the first few were. Two is when kids get old enough to think Disney "isn't cool" and/or move out of the house. Three is around retirement or any similar sharp change in income circumstances.

Just like neighborhoods have "an age" to them, so too do the individual resorts. We moved into our neighborhood early in the turnover cycle--a lot of the other families had high-school aged kids while ours were pre-school/grade school. Now that we have kids in college, many of those families have downsized and there are suddenly more families with young kids, strollers, etc.

Resorts have a bit of a similar dynamic underlying the normal churn. It is possible that e.g. AKV is entering a lower-ebb period of its long-term cycle. It was in active sales for a long time---about seven years---thanks in part to the recession. If the typical family bought mid-cycle, that would be about 2010 or so. The early sellers have probably been flushed out, but we may be a bit too early to get the "kids out of the house" wave.

 

[Kickstart]

There are some other factors that can influence this across a period of years. There are a few moments when folks who purchased reconsider their ownerships. One is a few years after buying, having discovered that the return trips are not as wonderful as the first few were. Two is when kids get old enough to think Disney "isn't cool" and/or move out of the house. Three is around retirement or any similar sharp change in income circumstances.

Just like neighborhoods have "an age" to them, so too do the individual resorts. We moved into our neighborhood early in the turnover cycle--a lot of the other families had high-school aged kids while ours were pre-school/grade school. Now that we have kids in college, many of those families have downsized and there are suddenly more families with young kids, strollers, etc.

Resorts have a bit of a similar dynamic underlying the normal churn. It is possible that e.g. AKV is entering a lower-ebb period of its long-term cycle. It was in active sales for a long time---about seven years---thanks in part to the recession. If the typical family bought mid-cycle, that would be about 2010 or so. The early sellers have probably been flushed out, but we may be a bit too early to get the "kids out of the house" wave.

Very interesting observation... any speculation on what cycle BLT is in?

 

[Brian Noble]

No idea, just pointing out that there might be a long term factor.

 

[TexasEric]

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Is this the aggregator site that looks like it hasn’t been updated since May 19, 2020? If so, anyone have the inside scoop on why it stopped Updating?

 

[Noah_t]

Yeah the way I look at it is I can easily rent the 122 points at $15 a point so $1830 (and I did not pay MF on these points). So that takes the sales price from $17,300 to about $15,500 or $88 a point. And a contract at $88 with full 2020 and forward points would not last more than a day on a listing site.

I also highly value banked/loaded points. So much so where I will not even consider a stripped contract when looking at resale unless it was ridiculously under priced.

Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.

 

[Noah_t]

Yeah the way I look at it is I can easily rent the 122 points at $15 a point so $1830 (and I did not pay MF on these points). So that takes the sales price from $17,300 to about $15,500 or $88 a point. And a contract at $88 with full 2020 and forward points would not last more than a day on a listing site.

I also highly value banked/loaded points. So much so where I will not even consider a stripped contract when looking at resale unless it was ridiculously under priced.

Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.

 

[bookwormde]

7/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 400-410% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

Since there appears to be interest, I am going to begin to more formally track active listings for the 3 big resellers DVC resale market, Fiderlity and Time Share Store.

For the last month DVC resale is up 10% with a current 304 count, Fidelity is up about 8% with 147.

TSS appears to be up between 10 and 15% over the past week with 154 (by hand count)

If anyone else if following any other resellers and want to post counts I can add them to my spreadsheet also.

 

[bookwormde]

Is this the aggregator site that looks like it hasn’t been updated since May 19, 2020? If so, anyone have the inside scoop on why it stopped Updating?

yes it is, no idea why

 

[bookwormde]

7/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 380-400% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[davidl81]

Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.

That is very fair. I would think rental income will be very tough till at least 2021. So for instance let’s say you were looking at a super loaded contract that had full 18 points banked into 19, but you had to use those points by Nov 30th then I would put very little value in those points. Since to your point assuming you close in time to use them you may only be able to get in the $5-$8 range for them if you are lucky. Of course if you were going to take a trip on your own with them the value will change.
And in 2021 rental points may be cheaper if we assume that there will be a lot of banked points on the market that people are trying to dump. We don’t know for sure how that’s going to work out, but it’s a fair assumption.

 

[davidl81]

It’s also a personal preference of mine to buy a contract with as many banked/loaded points as possible. The reason I’m buying a resale contract is because I’m always borrowing points from my current contracts and it’s like this vicious cycle of not having enough points. So if I’m going to buy a new contract I don’t want it to start out the way my current contracts are. I mean sure I could be smart and not use points for a year or so to let the fill back up, but I am not very smart.

 

[bookwormde]

7/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

7/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[RoseGold]

The reason I’m buying a resale contract is because I’m always borrowing points from my current contracts and it’s like this vicious cycle of not having enough points.

Well, 2020 has certainly showed that borrowing is smarter than banking...

 

[sethschroeder]

Well, 2020 has certainly showed that borrowing is smarter than banking...

Losing 1 year worth of points or buying a whole new contract. Which one is less expensive lol.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Here is chart of the approximate % of total DVC points sold to date by the resort they are tied to. I stress approximate because I have guessed at Riviera and Aulani. In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points. In reality, the older resorts had higher buy in minimums, so there are usually a lower % of OKW, BWV, HHI, etc contracts listed than points listed. You can check this against the various resale sites, a few tell you how many contracts are available, others you have to count (or drop the info into excel and make excel count)

View attachment 512432

Yeah, with that context it's interesting how small the deviation is and as you said, contract sizes would vary and could explain it. "Deviation" is percentage of contracts available total across the 3 sites compared to all contracts. Totals are a few days old but were all taken on the same day.