Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

bookwormde

<font color=darkorchid>Heading out now, another ad
Joined
Mar 16, 2008
Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

Below is the average asking on the aggregating site and my guesses for what resale contacts that come on the market will average for the next 6 months, what are yours?

actuals in (###)

3/20 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1



AKV 114 110(107) 105 100 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95 90 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135 130 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140 135 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115 110 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90 85 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142 136 128 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168 165 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72 68 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90 84 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136 130 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94 88 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60 56 52 50 48
 
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TraderSamWDW

The Head Salesman
Joined
Feb 24, 2020
It is a good question. A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.

Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.

I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash
 
  • TraderSamWDW

    The Head Salesman
    Joined
    Feb 24, 2020
    Is there a source for that? Or is it just speculation?
    Speculation. Disney has a lot of debt service and very little income right now. They actually have to worry about the health of their overall business. Certainly could be wrong, but between the Fox acquisition and almost non existent income right now, they have a lot of debt service and little cash flow. Combine that with how they cannibalized their own business models for Disney Plus (at least in the short term) further reducing income.....

    ETA: a lot of other companies in similar sectors are likely to go bankrupt or need a bail out just to stay in business. (Carnival and Royal Caribbean being 2 that come to mind)

    I should have said "PROBABLY wont be doing that"
     
    Last edited:

    bookwormde

    <font color=darkorchid>Heading out now, another ad
    Joined
    Mar 16, 2008
    Much of the modeling I used was from the great recession (figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective). As part of this I am expecting a dramatic reduction in ROFR in late spring and summer, except where they are selling new points and need to support the market.
     

    Fido Chuckwagon

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Apr 29, 2018
    It is a good question. A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
    ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.

    Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.

    I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash
    Has there been an announcement that DIS won’t be doing ROFR?

    Edit: Nevermind, I see it was speculation. Makes sense though.
     

    poofyo101

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    Aug 13, 2019
    One of the big brokers who does instant sale has lowered their prices really really low on their instant offers now.
     

    MICKIMINI

    Love the Mouse!
    Joined
    Sep 6, 2003
    ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

    There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!
     

    Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    ROFR is/has always been a threat. DVC will step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners. If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners. I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

    There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value. I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract. My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not. I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not. Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!
    Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in. Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.
     

    MICKIMINI

    Love the Mouse!
    Joined
    Sep 6, 2003
    Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in. Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.
    With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996. DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero. I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop. If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract. DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR. Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO. Be well.
     

    skippytx

    Bay Lake Tower
    Joined
    Aug 24, 2015
    They'll soften what they take in ROFR, but there won't be any giveaways like VGF @90 or something silly like that.

    This all depends on how long the current situation lasts. If the domestic parks are closed for 2 more months it'll be a much different situation than if things get back up and going in 2 weeks or so.
     

    Brianstl

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Sep 8, 2019
    With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996. DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero. I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop. If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract. DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR. Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO. Be well.
    Disney has never had revenue disrupted to this level before. Disney just sold another $6 billion in debt to fund operations. Disney isn't paying 3.8% interest to have cash to buyback DVC contracts at a time they have no revenue coming in.
     

    Brian Noble

    Gratefully in Recovery
    Joined
    Mar 23, 2004
    figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective
    I think we are headed for something that will be worse than the Great Recession. Illinois saw 64,000 unemployment claims in three days starting on March 16. Ohio saw 140,000 in the week ending yesterday. The WSJ has a panel of economists estimating about 875,000 claims this week nationwide. Goldman Sachs thinks it could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.

    Some of those jobs will come back, but some of them won't---at least, not right away. The underlying businesses will have failed in the meantime.
     

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