*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[DividedSky]

But that was the problem. "Reported wait times" are based on the posted wait and people all over were complaining about how inaccurate they were..

This entire thread is about Josh interpreting reported wait times to try to ascertain what fp+ is doing to user experiences.

If wait times can’t be trusted, then Josh’s analysis is also worthless.

 

[NavyDad]

I disagree. While some things posted may be true fabrications, I think most are things that could happen -- good or bad.

But I've had people disagree with my posts about Pres Week by saying that it couldn't have happened because FP+ worked perfectly for them in October. Obviously, not a fair comparison. But if somebody else was there in January, when crowds are historically low, I would have to decide whether their experience is relevant to what I should have expected. Same for anyone traveling at a less crowded time in the future -- what I saw/experienced may not be relevant for them at all, especially since by that time the system may have changed...again.

When sampling you will get the most accurate results from sampling the largest pool and completely dis-regarding any "self-selectors".

Using anecdotes from a message board is like buying a car because Aunt Suzie says it is a great car and not using the extensive data and research put out by Consumer Reports.

 

[JimmyV]

This entire thread is about Josh interpreting reported wait times to try to ascertain what fp+ is doing to user experiences.

If wait times can’t be trusted, then Josh’s analysis is also worthless.

I said that way back in one of the first few pages of this thread. Until the CMs come to terms with the "new normal", three months of inaccurately posted wait times is worthless.
FYI: I went ahead and editted my earlier post above to show what the actual wait time was for our TT experience. I think this focuses the issue better.

 

[flicx]

Here is a point that I don't think was mentioned yet. With this mb technology they know where you are at all times. Hence they know what time you entered the standby line. So they should/could link the actual wait times from information gathered from the band itself. Perhaps we should be asking Disney to do just this. Of course maybe they won't want to give out accurate information because many of the waits may reflect badly.

 

[WillAustin]

Here is a point that I don't think was mentioned yet. With this mb technology they know where you are at all times. Hence they know what time you entered the standby line. So they should/could link the actual wait times from information gathered from the band itself. Perhaps we should be asking Disney to do just this. Of course maybe they won't want to give out accurate information because many of the waits may reflect badly.

It wouldn't really be any better than the red card method. The waits would still show just how long it took someone to get to the front of the line, not how long the line is for someone at the back. It's a restrospective number, not real-time, but probably the best they can do.

 

[Angel Ariel]

When it comes down to it you either have an agenda or you do not whether someone labels you with it or not.

For you that may be true. That doesn't mean it is for anyone else. I have no agenda here. I post on this board because I enjoy discussing Disney with other people who love Disney. I don't like FP+, I won't pretend that I do. But I have no illusion that complaining about it will make Disney go back to legacy FP. I'm pretty sure the core group of people that have been labeled the "FP+ haters" would also agree that they know that legacy FP is not coming back, no matter what. in fact, most of that group that I can think of off the top of my head were some of the first ones to say legacy was going away and never coming back. The phrase "the FP+ genie has been let out of the bottle and isn't going back" (or something to that effect) rings a bell.

You're, of course, welcome to your conclusion - that doesn't mean your conclusion is accurate.

As for the rest of your post - you are obviously welcome to your opinion of people. Personally, I've found most people here to be very intelligent and realistic, whether I agree with them or not. The insinuation that many just don't understand or just can't admit to themselves..I'm just not going to bother.

 

[DividedSky]

I said that way back in one of the first few pages of this thread. Until the CMs come to terms with the "new normal", three months of inaccurately posted wait times is worthless.
FYI: I went ahead and editted my earlier post above to show what the actual wait time was for our TT experience. I think this focuses the issue better.

in 2013, on Sunday the 17th, the observed wait time was 117 minutes for TT

 

[Angel Ariel]

When sampling you will get the most accurate results from sampling the largest pool and completely dis-regarding any "self-selectors".

Using anecdotes from a message board is like buying a car because Aunt Suzie says it is a great car and not using the extensive data and research put out by Consumer Reports.

Yes, but when buying a car you don't solely use the extensive data and research. I just bought a car last week. Consumer Reports data absolutely played a huge part in our decision making process. That said, reports of the brand's reliability from others we know and trust who own either the same exact car, or the same brand were also important. Not nearly as important or influential as the data in CR, but not worthless (or laughable) either.

 

[surferdave]

I'm pretty sure the core group of people that have been labeled the "FP+ haters" would also agree that they know that legacy FP is not coming back, no matter what. in fact, most of that group that I can think of off the top of my head were some of the first ones to say legacy was going away and never coming back. The phrase "the FP+ genie has been let out of the bottle and isn't going back" (or something to that effect) rings a bell.

Yep. I remember when some folks here insisted that FP- was not going away, it was part of the basis of why FP+ was great. In fact, I gathered from many of the reports here that much of Disney's positive feedback that they got on FP+ was by people assuming FP- would always be available as well.

 

[Angel Ariel]

in 2013, on Sunday the 17th, the observed wait time was 117 minutes for TT

Do you have a link? I'm also in TP right now, and as JimmyV said, the only years I can pull up for TT are 2014 and 2015.

Ah, NVM. I see where you are pulling that from, and it is different from where JimmyV pulled his data from this year.

The 117 mins you are looking at is the average observed wait time for the entire day. (Getting to the number by goign to the crowd calendar for February 17th, then clicking on the "Click here to see individual attraction details used in determining crowd levels" to get the 117 for TT.

JimmyV and I both went to the "Parks" menu up top, clicked on Epcot, then clicked on "Wait Times" on the left hand menu. From there it took you to a page where you could click on Test Track and it gives you a graph of what the varying times were throughout the day - not an average for the entire day, as the 117 number is.

 

[DividedSky]

Do you have a link? I'm also in TP right now, and as JimmyV said, the only years I can pull up for TT are 2014 and 2015.

http://touringplans.com/epcot/wait-times/date/2013-02-17

 

[jtowntoflorida]

I'm also curious about what people think easywdw's agenda might be. It's a free site with no ads. He's never been particularly critical of FP+ and has done posts about how to best utilize to minimize waits and has made many comments about how it's not going to destroy one's experience in the parks. All he's reporting is the large amount of data he has access to and is drawing logical conclusions from it, which I would think we'd all welcome because we can't seem to get enough information about Disney in general.

So please...enlighten me? What is this nefarious agenda some of you are referring to?

 

[Planogirl]

I'm also curious about what people think easywdw's agenda might be. It's a free site with no ads. He's never been particularly critical of FP+ and has done posts about how to best utilize to minimize waits and has made many comments about how it's not going to destroy one's experience in the parks. All he's reporting is the large amount of data he has access to and is drawing logical conclusions from it, which I would think we'd all welcome because we can't seem to get enough information about Disney in general.

So please...enlighten me? What is this nefarious agenda some of you are referring to?

I'm sitting here wondering that myself. In fact, I doubt that he or most of the people here have any type of agenda.

 

[WillAustin]

Yep. I remember when some folks here insisted that FP- was not going away, it was part of the basis of why FP+ was great. In fact, I gathered from many of the reports here that much of Disney's positive feedback that they got on FP+ was by people assuming FP- would always be available as well.

I don't think anyone believes FP- would be coming back. I do believe FP+ is still in for more significant changes beyond what we see now, probably sooner than later.

I'm sitting here wondering that myself. In fact, I doubt that he or most of the people here have any type of agenda.

I'd be perfectly happy if I found I was able to ride just as many rides as before in a given day with the same or less overall wait in lines. I'd also let everyone know that it was the case.

 

[flicx]

It wouldn't really be any better than the red card method. The waits would still show just how long it took someone to get to the front of the line, not how long the line is for someone at the back. It's a restrospective number, not real-time, but probably the best they can do.

It would be better because it should tell you exactly how many people are in line. It would give more data especially when combine with how many are in the FP line.

 

[JimmyV]

in 2013, on Sunday the 17th, the observed wait time was 117 minutes for TT

Found it.
Predicted Wait Time for 9:30=44 minutes
Observed Wait Time at 9:42=40 minutes

 

[Planogirl]

I'd be perfectly happy if I found I was able to ride just as many rides as before in a given day with the same or less overall wait in lines. I'd also let everyone know that it was the case.

If that's an agenda, it's one that I can get behind!

 

[Angel Ariel]

http://touringplans.com/epcot/wait-times/date/2013-02-17

Thank you. I found it while you were posting, and I edited my last post. Where you are looking and where JimmyV and I looked are different places. The link you provided is the average observed wait time over the course of the day. Where JimmyV and I were looking is a graph of the times throughout the day, not an overall average. And on that page, only 2014/2015 is available.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I'd be perfectly happy if I found I was able to ride just as many rides as before in a given day with the same or less overall wait in lines. I'd also let everyone know that it was the case.

Me too

 

[DividedSky]

Found it.
Predicted Wait Time for 9:30=44 minutes
Observed Wait Time at 9:42=40 minutes

I’m having a hard time understanding your point. Your anecdotal time means zip to anyone but you.

The average observed wait time in 2013 was way, way higher than 2014 for presidents day weekend.

So when people on this forum complain about how horrible presidents day weekend is, and blame it on fp+, I don’t believe them.