*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[JimmyV]

I have also left painfully large gaps in our schedule for riding standby on Small World and PotC in the afternoon.

But you are supposed to ease your pain through retail therapy!!

 

[DividedSky]

While there certainly will be changes to the math, it does seem pretty clear that the number of FPs disseminated has increased (that was the whole point of this)

false.

The amount of orphaned fp's have likely been greatly reduced, but we have no way of knowing if they increase the total number of passes issued.

 

[gilltrooper]

So once the "test" is over are things supposed to be"normal" again, or is this the new normal ? I guess no one knows for sure.. My DW & I will be there in October for our honeymoon .. I hope things have leveled out a little by then. I believe in rope dropping it everyday... Maybe that'll help.

 

[JimmyV]

But we have no way of knowing if they increase the total number of passes issued.

Of couse we do. Disney is reporting that in the past, 50% of guests used FP- and that the average number of FPs used per guest was "1.something". (I don't know if that was 1.x per the 50% who used it, or 1.x per the total number of guests, but that isn't material to the conclusion.) We are now being told that 90% of all guests are using FP+, and since the system requires that you book 3 per day and not just 1 or 2, then, assuming a relatively constant rate of total guests in the parks each day, the total number of FPs disseminated has to have increased. 90% > 50% and 3 > 1.x. I did not mean that the total number has increased for any particular ride. But the total number of FPs floating around the park is absolutely greater. Before, there were 0 for PoTC. That number is now > 0. Unless they cut back on a ride that used to have FP-, then the total of, say, Space Mountain (assuming it is constant), + PoTC > Space Mountain alone.

 

[2Tiggies]

false.

The amount of orphaned fp's have likely been greatly reduced, but we have no way of knowing if they increase the total number of passes issued.

Actually I think it's pretty apparent that they have increased the number of FP's being issued from what was being offered under the old system. The lines bear testament to that. While the system itself and the scanning process may be slowing things down, I don't think that alone is an explanation for the much longer lines, including FP lines

 

[DividedSky]

Actually I think it's pretty apparent that they have increased the number of FP's being issued from what was being offered under the old system. The lines bear testament to that. While the system itself and the scanning process may be slowing things down, I don't think that alone is an explanation for the much longer lines, including FP lines

I think it’s pretty apparent people with an agenda are pushing it, even without backing data to do so.

The new system encourages using every single fp you select because you only get 3. It also makes it easier to return and select a new one if you don’t want to travel the park. The old system wouldn’t penalize you as harshly for selecting a fp and not utilizing it.

If the same number of passes are handed out, but the new system has a higher rate of utilization, waits would increase, even though the exact same # of passes were handed out

 

[DividedSky]

since the system requires that you book 3 per day and not just 1 or 2, then, assuming a relatively constant rate of total guests in the parks each day, the total number of FPs disseminated has to have increased. 90% > 50% and 3 > 1.x. I did not mean that the total number has increased for any particular ride. But the total number of FPs floating around the park is absolutely greater. Before, there were 0 for PoTC. That number is now > 0. Unless they cut back on a ride that used to have FP-, then the total of, say, Space Mountain (assuming it is constant), + PoTC > Space Mountain alone.

you can cancel any of your fp selections. It is true the system forces you to initially select three, but you can remove the second or third choice and only have 1 or 2.

 

[clsteve]

But you are supposed to ease your pain through retail therapy!!

And food... lots of food.....

 

[JimmyV]

you can cancel any of your fp selections. It is true the system forces you to initially select three, but you can remove the second or third choice and only have 1 or 2.

So what? Simple math. Let's use Epcot as an example:
Take all of the attractions that utilized FP- that also now utilize FP+ and eliminate them as a constant. For this exercise, we will assume that FP(2013)=FP(2014).
Now, compare all of the attractions that utilized FP- but do NOT utilize FP+ and compare that to the attractions that did NOT utilize FP- but now use FP+. I am not aware of any attractions that fit into the former category, so that number is "0". As for attractions that fit the second category, we have, at a minimum:
Nemo
Eo
Journey Into Imagination

I am not certain about Living With The Land, Spaceship Earth or Crush. I cannot recall if they used FP- or not.

Bottom line is that every FP+ handed out for these attractions adds to the total number of FPs disseminated. The only way around this is to assume either that the number of FPs for the other attractions has been ratcheted back, or that no one is actually using their FPs for rides that didn't used to use FP, but now do. Neither conclusion is supported.

There is no agenda here, other than Disney's which is to increase the use of Fast Passes. It is hard to imagine how a supporter of FP+ could agree with Disney's mission statement, while simultaneously denying that its impact will be to disseminate more passes.

 

[*disgal*]

Which is why my kids and I have FP+ during spring break for my kids' absolute favorite ride, Haunted Mansion, even though it goes against conventional wisdom, because we'll be hitting it in the early afternoon. I know I'm contributing to the problem, but we do what we must to avoid disappointing the kids or being tortured by a 40min wait for HM. I have also left painfully large gaps in our schedule for riding standby on Small World and PotC in the afternoon.

Hey, no judgement here. I'm going to get my party's must-do's and then make a plan. If that's different from everybody else's plan on here, so be it. And at this point, it's anyone's guess how your plan will affect my plan and vice versa. Ya just gotta do for your family what you think will work. (with some good educated guesses from people on here)

In 6 months we might know more, maybe even in 3. But we spring breakers are pretty much guinea pigs right now.

 

[redrosesix]

It took me forever to find this again...

Honestly, I think Disney shot itself in the foot when it came out of the box with 3 pre-booked FPs. Anything less now will seem like a retraction, even though at Epcot, you are really only getting one that is useful. I think a better system would have been to allow guests to book one per day in advance. That way, they could have "locked in" their "must do" attraction, and then left the old system in place, even if that meant replacing the operations of the old system with a digital system. In other words, other than your one advanced FP, all others would be booked while in the park with no restrictions other than a limit of how much time must pass in between your selections. If they had come out of the box with this system, it would give the appearance of giving guests a huge benefit that they never had before without mucking up a system that was actually working. And to the people who would respond that 50% of the people weren't using the old system, I would say that once people got the opportunity to pre-book (just as they have now) it would familiarize them with the system such that they would have used in upon arrival. There is no reason to think that the current system is educating people on its use more so than what I would have done.

Edit to add: And instead of "Lock It In", my marketing campaign would have been: "What's Your Disney Must-Do?"

THIS would have been ideal -- you get your must-do, no more paper FPs but... for most rides you actually have to look at the SB line to decide whether you want to pull a FP or ride immediately. And no priority for the FP line - do it the same as the old FP system where they pull riders from each. So that would minimize the effect on SB wait times.

However I agree that going from 3 to 1 is probably impossible at this point. But what about 1 FP+ for an attraction, 1 FP+ for a show/fireworks or parade? One of the great additions in FP+ IMO is being able to use them for advanced seating at shows and fireworks, and the capacity for these is enormous. My DD does the Twirlmania parade through MK every year -- we were told that there are 10,000 people lined up along the parade route.

We used one of our FPs for F! this year and it was well worth it -- it saved us so much time not waiting in line and we got better seats than if we had done SB. If the SB wait times weren't so mucked up, that extra time could have really paid off for us when touring the rest of the park.

 

[NavyDad]

false.

The amount of orphaned fp's have likely been greatly reduced, but we have no way of knowing if they increase the total number of passes issued.

I am with you on this. However -

It is LIKELY that the total number of FP issued has increased.

There are people on here who will pick a data point and draw wild conclussions because they suit their agenda.

Some things we don't know:

How many "orphaned" FP were issued before that were not actually used. I have seen some numbers of average FP usage before but we don't know if that was based on how many were issued or how many were collected at the end of the day.

I haven't seen concrete numbers on if people are actually using all three of their FP. I would expect to see a much higher usage rate since it is now possible to change times. I believe this is exactly what Disney was going for.

Also, even if we had all of this data it would be important to compare three different periods: un-enforced paper FP, enforced paper FP and FP+

Josh didn't give us hard numbers but said FP usage was up. When he puts something like that out he always has the data to back it up even if he doesn't give it to us. I trust what he says.

It would also be interesting to see FP usage totals and usage rates for each ride(we probably won't ever get to see this). If headliner usage totals is about the same but secondary rates are much higher then this would be an indicator that the system is working as designed.

 

[redrosesix]

Actually I think it's pretty apparent that they have increased the number of FP's being issued from what was being offered under the old system. The lines bear testament to that. While the system itself and the scanning process may be slowing things down, I don't think that alone is an explanation for the much longer lines, including FP lines

Agreed. Otherwise there would be no people waiting in the return line after the first scanner, especially since the return line has priority over SB.

I think it’s pretty apparent people with an agenda are pushing it, even without backing data to do so.

The new system encourages using every single fp you select because you only get 3. It also makes it easier to return and select a new one if you don’t want to travel the park. The old system wouldn’t penalize you as harshly for selecting a fp and not utilizing it.

If the same number of passes are handed out, but the new system has a higher rate of utilization, waits would increase, even though the exact same # of passes were handed out

Posters keep saying this about people with an agenda, and I never understand it....

Do you mean they work for US?

For the life of me, I can't understand why anyone who doesn't work for a theme park would come on here and blatantly post false information in order to totally screw up somebody's trip planning. So I take these posts at face value -- every single family is different, every single experience is different, and unless you were in the ride line right behind them your experiences at a different park, on different day and at different hour may differ. But that in itself is good to know, since there are better times to do particular things than others. But I'm realist -- I don't run the parks so I can't control them. I would like to know the good and the bad so I can find a way to avoid the bad.

So, yeah, you must mean they work for US. For the record, I don't.

 

[JimmyV]

I am with you on this. However -

It is LIKELY that the total number of FP issued has increased.

(Test Track + Soarin' + Nemo + EO + Figment) > (Test Track + Soarin').

The number of FPs issued HAS to have increased unless they decreased the number being issued for Test Track + Soarin', and based on the hours for which they are being distributed (opening until closing) and the streams of people coming in through the FP return line at a constant rate all day, that has not happened.

 

[redrosesix]

Which is why my kids and I have FP+ during spring break for my kids' absolute favorite ride, Haunted Mansion, even though it goes against conventional wisdom, because we'll be hitting it in the early afternoon. I know I'm contributing to the problem, but we do what we must to avoid disappointing the kids or being tortured by a 40min wait for HM. I have also left painfully large gaps in our schedule for riding standby on Small World and PotC in the afternoon.

We FP'd HM twice on our trip

But the SB line through the graveyard is pretty cool. It did take us almost 40 minutes to get through it but it's worth doing once per trip.

We learned to budget about an hour for each of the SB lines on "secondary" rides ie. not BTMRR, SM, or Pinocchio (it was the worst line most days). Not that you always need an hour, but sometimes you do and you don't really know how long it will be until you get through it.

 

[NavyDad]

It took me forever to find this again...



THIS would have been ideal -- you get your must-do, no more paper FPs but... for most rides you actually have to look at the SB line to decide whether you want to pull a FP or ride immediately. And no priority for the FP line - do it the same as the old FP system where they pull riders from each. So that would minimize the effect on SB wait times.

However I agree that going from 3 to 1 is probably impossible at this point. But what about 1 FP+ for an attraction, 1 FP+ for a show/fireworks or parade? One of the great additions in FP+ IMO is being able to use them for advanced seating at shows and fireworks, and the capacity for these is enormous. My DD does the Twirlmania parade through MK every year -- we were told that there are 10,000 people lined up along the parade route.

We used one of our FPs for F! this year and it was well worth it -- it saved us so much time not waiting in line and we got better seats than if we had done SB. If the SB wait times weren't so mucked up, that extra time could have really paid off for us when touring the rest of the park.

I do find it funny that the number of FP (currently 3) is what most people seem to get wrapped around. This is actually the easiest part of the entire system for Disney to change once they get the system implemented and a larger pool of guests "conditioned" to use the system.

A lot of people have brought up that Disney could start charging for extra FP or giving more to on-site guests.

They could just as easily increase them for busier times of day or times of year just like they do with free dining:

If you want to visit at Peak times you get 3. If you want to visit off peak you get 4. This would actually make more sense considering the business model of Disney Parks: keeping the park attendance high enough throughout the whole year to ensure their hotels, dining locations and shopping areas are full.

Also if they see higher than expected number of FP being booked at a certain parks on a certain day the system could automatically send out an email offering an extra FP at another park for that same day.

Disney has never showed any interest in using FP as a DIRECT revenue stream, but more as a Queue control to support their actual revenue streams.

(Also spare me the anecdote about how you or your cousin doesn't spend as much money shopping or eating anymore. The earnings reports show year after year that shopping and food sales are huge money makers for Disney Parks. This system is all about leveraging those revenue streams as much as possible)

 

[DividedSky]

I am with you on this. However -

It is LIKELY that the total number of FP issued has increased.

per park,yes, but per ride?

I don't think so.

 

[mom2rtk]

per park,yes, but per ride?

I don't think so.

Based on?

 

[JimmyV]

They could just as easily increase them for busier times of day or times of year just like they do with free dining:

If you want to visit at Peak times you get 3. If you want to visit off peak you get 4. This would actually make more sense considering the business model of Disney Parks: keeping the park attendance high enough throughout the whole year to ensure their hotels, dining locations and shopping areas are full.

I am absolutely convinced that we are going to see this, and that the "extra" FP will be an on-site perk. It is no secret that Disney detests Free Dining and wants to do away with it (if it can). So now that they have harvested a new carrot, they are going to dangle it at the end of a stick in the off peak season as an enticement to get people to come. Will it be as effective as Free Dining? Probably not. But I expect them to test the waters. And who knows? Since there were two levels of Free Dining, ("QS only" and "QS+TS"), perhaps there will be two levels of FP upgrades, ("add a 4th" and "add a 4th and 5th").

 

[DividedSky]

Based on?

wait time analysis.

orphaned fp's were less likely for rides like TSMM,EE, Space, etc because that is what visitors were prioritizing, and are still prioritizing.

if Disney is issuing more passes, why didn't the most popular rides see a huge increase in stand by waits?