*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[Love Tink]

Again - I just don't see that as a problem. Using a Fast Pass (virtual queue) for a ride you love and don't want to miss out on is part of the solution IMO.

So when a new development benefits one family (but is known to cause new delays for everyone else) it is a "part of the solution"...

At the same time I understand the science of queueing and what Disney is tryig to do. I understand that under a more efficient queueing system some people are going to benefit less (my family) but most are going to benefit more.

Many people on here either don't understand these concepts or they just refuse to admit them because the outcome does not benefit them.

But at the same time we are supposed to view this new system from the perspective of the guest experience as a whole, not just our own experience (or else we're just too dumb to "understand these concepts.")

So which is it - are we required to view it personally or collectively? (Or just whichever way you can spin as a "positive" in that specific scenario?)

 

[Angel Ariel]

I’m having a hard time understanding your point. Your anecdotal time means zip to anyone but you.

The average observed wait time in 2013 was way, way higher than 2014 for presidents day weekend.

So when people on this forum complain about how horrible presidents day weekend is, and blame it on fp+, I don’t believe them.

The average observed wait time for the entire day, yes. JimmyV wasn't discussing the entire day. He was talking about the shift in wait time at the beginning of the day.

It is very entirely possible for the entire day's average to have dipped, and yet still have the wait in the first hour of the day be higher than it was the previous year - and both could potentially be attributed to FP+.

 

[DividedSky]

The average observed wait time for the entire day, yes. JimmyV wasn't discussing the entire day. He was talking about the shift in wait time at the beginning of the day.

so if average wait for the entire day was worse in 2013, how is it presidents day 2014 is so bad because of fp+?

 

[Davey Jones II]

You can take my first-hand report that I have never waited in a 75 minute line at Test Track at 9:20 (and for which the CMs just changed the posted wait time from 20 to 30 minutes due to their vast experience and seasoned expectations) and discount it as a lie or an exaggeration. That is your prerogative. I cannot make you believe that account. If you want to look at Josh's data and conclude that the chronograph function on my watch was inoperative or that I did not know how to use it, that is fine. But when hundreds of people say that they are now waiting in longer SB lines than ever before, my eyes and ears will perk up. And when I experience it first-hand, I will believe. This Board is comprised of some of the most skilled and experienced Disney guests on the planet. When we get first-hand reports here, I do not think that they warrant a "laugh-out-loud" reaction. Skepticism? Perhaps. But not outright, laughed-off disapproval.

He laughed because hundreds of first-hand accounts don't fit his agenda, which is to defend this system because it is high tech.

Yet, empirical data is used in most fields of study. And when hundreds of posters are reporting the same thing, because they are in the parks and experiencing it in person, dismissing all of them is just willfull blindness.

 

[NavyDad]

I'm also curious about what people think easywdw's agenda might be. It's a free site with no ads. He's never been particularly critical of FP+ and has done posts about how to best utilize to minimize waits and has made many comments about how it's not going to destroy one's experience in the parks. All he's reporting is the large amount of data he has access to and is drawing logical conclusions from it, which I would think we'd all welcome because we can't seem to get enough information about Disney in general.

So please...enlighten me? What is this nefarious agenda some of you are referring to?

I'm not sure I remember anyone saying Josh at EasyWDW had an agenda. He hasn't really advocated one way or another or presented any data in a manner that suggested an agenda.

 

[Angel Ariel]

so if average wait for the entire day was worse in 2013, how is it presidents day 2014 is so bad because of fp+?

I don't recall saying it was. Nor do I recall JimmyV saying the entire day was. He was talking about a specific time frame, and the data you posted does not actually refute that as you compared apples to oranges (comparing data for a specific time to an overall average for the day).

 

[DividedSky]

I don't recall saying it was. Nor do I recall JimmyV saying the entire day was. He was talking about a specific time frame, and the data you posted does not actually refute that as you compared apples to oranges (comparing data for a specific time to an overall average for the day).

I don't recall having the conversation with you.

but the person I was talking with said:

On crowded days, we are seeing that. Go back and look at what people were reporting first hand on President's Day weekend and Mardi Gras. Lots of "I've never seen waits like this, even for this time of year" posts. Maybe they are all exaggerations, or all inaccurate. But there are a lot of posts like that and it is difficult to discount all of them.

 

[JimmyV]

The average observed wait time for the entire day, yes. JimmyV wasn't discussing the entire day. He was talking about the shift in wait time at the beginning of the day.

It is very entirely possible for the entire day's average to have dipped, and yet still have the wait in the first hour of the day be higher than it was the previous year - and both could potentially be attributed to FP+.

Exactly. I mentioned in an earlier post that if the line climbs to its normal level and stays there, then the fact that the wait time was increased in the first hour of the day may in fact get watered down to nothing. But that isn't much comfort to people who have a touring plan that places them at Soarin' at RD and TT at 9:30. What matters to these people is, what will my wait be at 9:30. One's entire touring plan can get shattered when an expected 25 minute wait (or a 44 minute wait) turns into a 90 minute wait. Why was the line so big so fast?? FP+. Plain and simple. In 2013, there were NO people returning to TT in the FP line at 9:20, and hence, the SB line was not getting cut off. In 2014, there was a steady stream of people returning in the FP line at 9:20. The "Posted Wait Time" didn't account for this, because the CM saw a line of a particular linear length and assumed, based on past experience, that a line of such length would be about 20-30 minutes long. Touring Plans didn't account for this because it had no data by which to base an estimate because FP+ was brand new and had not yet been used on a "9" day in full roll-out mode.

Total average wait time isn't as meaningful as it seems. At some point, (around 120-150 minutes) people simply stop getting in line and skip the attraction. (Unless you are waiting to see Scandanavian Princesses, apparently). So the line at TT, or Soarin' or RnR or TSM may never climb above historical highs because historical highs may establish people's tolerance point. But if FP+ is causing lines to back up sooner, even though the daily average might not change, the effect on one's touring plan absolutely could.

 

[DividedSky]

Exactly. I mentioned in an earlier post that if the line climbs to its normal level and stays there, then the fact that the wait time was increased in the first hour of the day may in fact get watered down to nothing. But that isn't much comfort to people who have a touring plan that places them at Soarin' at RD and TT at 9:30. What matters to these people is, what will my wait be at 9:30. One's entire touring plan can get shattered when an expected 25 minute wait (or a 44 minute wait) turns into a 90 minute wait. Why was the line so big so fast?? FP+. Plain and simple. In 2013, there were NO people returning to TT in the FP line at 9:20, and hence, the SB line was not getting cut off. In 2014, there was a steady stream of people returning in the FP line at 9:20. The "Posted Wait Time" didn't account for this, because the CM saw a line of a particular linear length and assumed, based on past experience, that a line of such length would be about 20-30 minutes long. Touring Plans didn't account for this because it had no data by which to base an estimate because FP+ was brand new and had not yet been used on a "9" day in full roll-out mode.

Total average wait time isn't as meaningful as it seems. At some point, (around 120-150 minutes) people simply stop getting in line and skip the attraction. (Unless you are waiting to see Scandanavian Princesses, apparently). So the line at TT, or Soarin' or RnR or TSM may never climb above historical highs because historical highs may establish people's tolerance point. But if FP+ is causing lines to back up sooner, even though the daily average might not change, the effect on one's touring plan absolutely could.

Average observed wait times less in 2014. Reported wait times less in 2014.

But because a single point in time was worse for you personally, the entire system is horrific?

I’m not sure how to respond because I am not sure if your goal post is going to stay planted, or if you will keep moving it.

Instead, I’ll just remind everyone this entire thread is an analysis of reported wait times, but the minute I use those same times to prove presidents day wasn't worse, we start looking at a 30 minute window to evaluate the system.

 

[NavyDad]

So when a new development benefits one family (but is known to cause new delays for everyone else) it is a "part of the solution"...



But at the same time we are supposed to view this new system from the perspective of the guest experience as a whole, not just our own experience (or else we're just too dumb to "understand these concepts.")

So which is it - are we required to view it personally or collectively? (Or just whichever way you can spin as a "positive" in that specific scenario?)

WOW

It is part of the solution that Disney was trying to accomplish: Having guests reserve a particular time slot for a particular attraction they wanted to make sure they experienced.

They want MORE people to do this (FP+ with a limit) not LESS people to do this MORE often (Legacy Fastpass) for the reasons that have been explained at length.

The facts that more people are using Fastpass overall combined with the data Josh provided that showed headliner STBY times are staying about the same while secondary attractions are seeing longer STBY times (due increase of FP use on secondary attractions) indicates the system is working as designed even if the Disney pro's like us aren't benefited by it.


Again it is one thing to say: "I like the old system better - it was better for my family"

and a completely different thing to say "Obviously the system is not working as intended" or "The system has been a complete failure"

 

[NavyDad]

He laughed because hundreds of first-hand accounts don't fit his agenda, which is to defend this system because it is high tech.

Yet, empirical data is used in most fields of study. And when hundreds of posters are reporting the same thing, because they are in the parks and experiencing it in person, dismissing all of them is just willfull blindness.

I'm not sure that word means what you think it means......because it doesn't relate to testimonials relayed on message boards

Anecdotes, testimonials and Urban Legends

 

[*disgal*]

For you that may be true. That doesn't mean it is for anyone else. I have no agenda here. I post on this board because I enjoy discussing Disney with other people who love Disney. I don't like FP+, I won't pretend that I do. But I have no illusion that complaining about it will make Disney go back to legacy FP. I'm pretty sure the core group of people that have been labeled the "FP+ haters" would also agree that they know that legacy FP is not coming back, no matter what. in fact, most of that group that I can think of off the top of my head were some of the first ones to say legacy was going away and never coming back. The phrase "the FP+ genie has been let out of the bottle and isn't going back" (or something to that effect) rings a bell.

same here. And I agree. Dead. Cremated.

Yep. I remember when some folks here insisted that FP- was not going away, it was part of the basis of why FP+ was great. In fact, I gathered from many of the reports here that much of Disney's positive feedback that they got on FP+ was by people assuming FP- would always be available as well.

Oh, wow, I had been away from the boards for a long time. I didn't realize that. Well,......I'm sure that was a bummer when they found out. Ouch.

I'd be perfectly happy if I found I was able to ride just as many rides as before in a given day with the same or less overall wait in lines. I'd also let everyone know that it was the case.

here,here! Would love it if that happened. To you or to me. And I'll be first in line to toot Disney's horn.

If that's an agenda, it's one that I can get behind!

 

[jtowntoflorida]

I'm not sure I remember anyone saying Josh at EasyWDW had an agenda. He hasn't really advocated one way or another or presented any data in a manner that suggested an agenda.

Really? Did you read the whole thread? You used the term yourself!

What did you lose? The article is drawing a connection between longer waits and FP+. That connection is arbitrary and chosen to make a point. You can always slice data to make a point if that is your goal.

...
President’s day weekend was way busier in 2013 and the lines were longer. I do remember people complaining about how much longer the waits were (because of fp+), and I think an agenda has much to do with it as the waits were actually shorter because the park wasn't as busy as the year before.

my analysis is people with an agenda are clinging to an incomplete subset of data in a rush to judgement.

without park attendance numbers, and ride malfunction variables, I see this as completely unscientific

I don't believe that is the agenda they are talking about.

The agenda is that many people on these boards were not in favor of FP Plus from the begining because it detracts from some of the advantages WE enjoyed under the old system.

They cherry pick data that supports their agenda (but does not really mean what they think it means) and try and support the conclussion that FP+ is a disaster and/or needs to be scrapped.

 

[DividedSky]

Really? Did you read the whole thread? You used the term yourself!

not towards the person that runs easyWDW.

 

[JimmyV]

Average observed wait times less in 2014. Reported wait times less in 2014.

But because a single point in time was worse for you personally, the entire system is horrific?

I’m not sure how to respond because I am not sure if your goal post is going to stay planted, or if you will keep moving it.

The goal post isn't moving. This all started back around post #520 or so with a discussion of whether people "in the know" have enough information to be able to adjust touring plans. The answer is, while we may not know all that we are going to know, it is absolutely clear that we do know enough to make certain adjustments. Rides that used to be walk-ons will not be walk-ons any longer because they are now FP eligible whereas they were not before (see GMR and PoTC), and major attractions that used to slowly build up waits until they reach their critical mass will build those waits at a faster rate because people will be returning in the FP return line earlier than in the past. Neither of these statements are earth shattering, and neither is suggestive of a system that is "horrible" (a word not heretofore used). But despite the non-controversial nature of these two observations, certain people insisted that Josh's data shows that average wait times aren't increasing. The question (beginning around post #520 or so) is not whether average wait times are increasing, but whether individual touring plans should be adjusted to account for some testable and observed results. Nothing more. But somehow, I was detoured into using Touring Plans to show that what people expected to happen on a given day (a 25 minute wait), turned out to be quite different (a 90 minute wait). When one is plotting out a touring plan (and using TP as a guide), I think this is useful knowledge. TP has a ways to go before its predictions catch up to reality. And so does Josh.

 

[redrosesix]

I looked at Presidents day weekend and touring plans reported wait times

For 2013, I used Saturday 2/16

For 2014, I used Saturday 2/15

Space Mtn
2013 – 95 minutes
2014 – 53 minutes

BTMRR
2013 – 68
2014 – 51

Peter Pan
2013 – 95
2014 – 61

Haunted Mansion
2013 - 40
2014 - 27

President’s day weekend was way busier in 2013 and the lines were longer. I do remember people complaining about how much longer the waits were (because of fp+), and I think an agenda has much to do with it as the waits were actually shorter because the park wasn't as busy as the year before.

Funny you should use that particular date, because I was there for both of them that night. It was extremely cold last year, and close to freezing that night -- my daughter was in the Twirlmania parade and it was so cold they had to put them up in the CMs dressing rooms before the parade. So the parks were super crowded during the day that weekend and much much better at night.

So you're saying other people have an agenda, yet you only showed 4 rides -- all rides that had longer reported SB times last year on one particular day -- what about all the other rides in MK? And you use one day -- yet Josh's data is over 60 days. We rode PoTC right after the parade both years because that's the gate where we pick the girls up -- after 10 pm last year the SB wait was only 10 minutes, which we figured was kind of long because it was an indoor ride and nobody wanted to be outside. This year it was 20 minutes but we used a FP, as did a lot of the families who were affiliated with the parade -- I actually don't know how long people got stuck in SB because of us So there are two things that can throw your data off if you only look at one day.

Btw, it was so cold that night that I had to scrape the ice off my windshield the next morning.

 

[surferdave]

Oh, wow, I had been away from the boards for a long time. I didn't realize that. Well,......I'm sure that was a bummer when they found out. Ouch.

From September to December there were plenty of trip/FP+ reports that said "FP+ is awesome! Between it and FP- we rode TSMM four times!!! great job Disney!" Very few people seem to get what they were testing and what it would be like without the legacy system. Remember that when Disney says that most of their feedback has been positive.

 

[DividedSky]

Funny you should use that particular date, because I was there for both of them that night. It was extremely cold last year, and close to freezing that night -- my daughter was in the Twirlmania parade and it was so cold they had to put them up in the CMs dressing rooms before the parade. So the parks were super crowded during the day that weekend and much much better at night.

So you're saying other people have an agenda, yet you only showed 4 rides

we were discussing presidents day weekend, so there is nothing funny about the dates, I compared a Saturday to a saturday.

And we were talking about the top attractions.

I guess you could fault me for leaving out splash mountain, but since it is closed, that would be a pretty silly critique as well.

 

[NavyDad]

Really? Did you read the whole thread? You used the term yourself!

Yes

I have used the term often in this tread but again not in regards to Josh.

He presented the data.

Others have cherry picked his data to suit their agenda.

 

[agavegirl1]

Took a while but I just skimmed/read this thread. I did read the Josh's analysis days ago but it sure is interesting how many comments it could generate. I only have some idea how the whole FP+ system will affect me on my next trip but the effect on Standby Lines has been my biggest question mark. I have about 7 months to watch and wait. I for one, appreciate any analysis and anecdote regarding this issue and commend the posters on this board for the civil, thoughtful and helpful information ... well most of you