*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[JimmyV]

per park,yes, but per ride?

I don't think so.

No one ever said that they have increased them "per ride". The statement that you originally disagreed with is that there were more FPs floating around the park. Total. That is incontrovertible.

As for "per ride", we have no proof. Except that in the past, the earliest return time for a FP was around 9:45 or so. Now, people can book them for 9:00. That does not prove that there are more FPs for each ride. But it hints in that direction.

 

[DividedSky]

No one ever said that they have increased them "per ride". The statement that you originally disagreed with is that there were more FPs floating around the park. Total. That is incontrovertible.

As for "per ride", we have no proof. Except that in the past, the earliest return time for a FP was around 9:45 or so. Now, people can book them for 9:00. That does not prove that there are more FPs for each ride. But it hints in that direction.

I apologize, I misunderstood your point.

fp per park has to be up because the number of attractions issuing fp have went way, way up.

 

[NavyDad]

Agreed. Otherwise there would be no people waiting in the return line after the first scanner, especially since the return line has priority over SB.



Posters keep saying this about people with an agenda, and I never understand it....

Do you mean they work for US?

For the life of me, I can't understand why anyone who doesn't work for a theme park would come on here and blatantly post false information in order to totally screw up somebody's trip planning. So I take these posts at face value -- every single family is different, every single experience is different, and unless you were in the ride line right behind them your experiences at a different park, on different day and at different hour may differ. But that in itself is good to know, since there are better times to do particular things than others. But I'm realist -- I don't run the parks so I can't control them. I would like to know the good and the bad so I can find a way to avoid the bad.

So, yeah, you must mean they work for US. For the record, I don't.

I don't believe that is the agenda they are talking about.

The agenda is that many people on these boards were not in favor of FP Plus from the begining because it detracts from some of the advantages WE enjoyed under the old system.

They cherry pick data that supports their agenda (but does not really mean what they think it means) and try and support the conclussion that FP+ is a disaster and/or needs to be scrapped.

Many of these people (not all) believe that if they complain enough about it on internet message boards that Disney will go back to the old system (that's just not happening).

 

[EMode]

Which is why my kids and I have FP+ during spring break for my kids' absolute favorite ride, Haunted Mansion, even though it goes against conventional wisdom, because we'll be hitting it in the early afternoon. I know I'm contributing to the problem, but we do what we must to avoid disappointing the kids or being tortured by a 40min wait for HM. I have also left painfully large gaps in our schedule for riding standby on Small World and PotC in the afternoon.

If I was planning a trip this year I'd be contributing to that problem too. HM is my favorite ride so it would definitely be a FP+ pick for me. Problem is I have a family of 5 and we all have different favorites so 2 of us will be stuck in much longer SB lines for our favorites than we ever had to stand in in the past.
I wouldn't go to WDW and expect no SB lines, but I don't want to spend my Spring Break vacation hoping for the best from now on either. Its sad that is what WDW vacations have come too

 

[JimmyV]

if Disney is issuing more passes, why didn't the most popular rides see a huge increase in stand by waits?

On crowded days, we are seeing that. Go back and look at what people were reporting first hand on President's Day weekend and Mardi Gras. Lots of "I've never seen waits like this, even for this time of year" posts. Maybe they are all exaggerations, or all inaccurate. But there are a lot of posts like that and it is difficult to discount all of them. And I am a first-hand observer. I have done the "Rope Drop to Soarin' and then head straight to Test Track" probably 20 times in my life. By the time I get to TT, the wait is usually around 20 minutes. When I got there this last time, the posted wait had just clicked over from 20 to 30 minutes. I waited 75. Pretty much everyone around us in line could be heard saying the same thing: "We've never waited 70 minutes for Test Track at 9:20 in the morning!" So I don't think it is fair to conclude that wait times have not increased. There were thousands of people standing in line for TT that day that would not agree with that. Now, did the wait bubble up to unheard of proportions? No. But it did get much longer much earlier. So averaged out over the course of a full day, the fact that the wait jumped to 75 minutes at 9:20 as opposed to 10:30 probably gets watered down to the point of insignificance. But it isn't insignificant to people who had a touring strategy of getting there before 10:00 to beat the crowd. And this is why such things need to be factored in to one's touring plan.

 

[NavyDad]

If I was planning a trip this year I'd be contributing to that problem too. HM is my favorite ride so it would definitely be a FP+ pick for me. Problem is I have a family of 5 and we all have different favorites so 2 of us will be stuck in much longer SB lines for our favorites than we ever had to stand in in the past.
I wouldn't go to WDW and expect no SB lines, but I don't want to spend my Spring Break vacation hoping for the best from now on either. Its sad that is what WDW vacations have come too

I don't see why using a FP on HM is being "part of the problem" at all. It seems to me that is part of the solution.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I don't believe that is the agenda they are talking about.

The agenda is that many people on these boards were not in favor of FP Plus from the begining because it detracts from some of the advantages WE enjoyed under the old system.

They cherry pick data that supports their agenda (but does not really mean what they think it means) and try and support the conclussion that FP+ is a disaster and/or needs to be scrapped.

Many of these people (not all) believe that if they complain enough about it on internet message boards that Disney will go back to the old system (that's just not happening).

I would disagree with your conclusion. Most who have been labeled "fp+ haters" here have no illusions re:the old system. They know it is gone and not coming back.

As always, I find it interesting that its ok for one side to apply labels and agendas to the other, but if the other side were to do the same it wouldn't be ok.

 

[EMode]

I don't see why using a FP on HM is being "part of the problem" at all. It seems to me that is part of the solution.

Did you see the new data chart? Putting FP+ lines on rides that never had them before is going to create longer SB times for those rides. Me standing in that FP+ line is part of that problem.

 

[NavyDad]

On crowded days, we are seeing that. Go back and look at what people were reporting first hand on President's Day weekend and Mardi Gras. Lots of "I've never seen waits like this, even for this time of year" posts. Maybe they are all exaggerations, or all inaccurate. But there are a lot of posts like that and it is difficult to discount all of them. And I am a first-hand observer. I have done the "Rope Drop to Soarin' and then head straight to Test Track" probably 20 times in my life. By the time I get to TT, the wait is usually around 20 minutes. When I got there this last time, the posted wait had just clicked over from 20 to 30 minutes. I waited 75. Pretty much everyone around us in line could be heard saying the same thing: "We've never waited 70 minutes for Test Track at 9:20 in the morning!" So I don't think it is fair to conclude that wait times have not increased. There were thousands of people standing in line for TT that day that would not agree with that. Now, did the wait bubble up to unheard of proportions? No. But it did get much longer much earlier. So averaged out over the course of a full day, the fact that the wait jumped to 75 minutes at 9:20 as opposed to 10:30 probably gets watered down to the point of insignificance. But it isn't insignificant to people who had a touring strategy of getting there before 10:00 to beat the crowd. And this is why such things need to be factored in to one's touring plan.

I totally agree the changes in STBY wait times need to be factored into touring plans. I'm sure Josh and the folks at TP are hard at work figuring this stuff out.

I will say that "first-hand" reports on internet message boards are about the most un-reliable indicators you could depend on.

Your comment earlier that went something like "Even more important than Josh's data is first hand reports we are seeing from the parks" actually made me laugh out loud

I've seen on here for years anecdotes about "the parks are way more crowded now then they ever were in the last 30 years" = not true

"People are going to stop eating at Disney because food quality is down and prices are up" = not true

"I know for a fact people are not spending as much on shopping at Disney any more because my cousin's wife's brother at Disney usually spends $800 and this year on their 15th trip they only spent $200" = means nothing because merchandise sales are up over 60% in the last decade.

 

[JimmyV]

Many of these people (not all) believe that if they complain enough about it on internet message boards that Disney will go back to the old system (that's just not happening).

Agree 100%. But if they complain enough, there may be substantial tweaks and changes that end up preserving many of the original features of FP-, and that is just as good. I am convinced that the final roll out will allow people to utilize the system in ways that are far more similar to FP- than Disney had originally planned. The "rolling FP" system which they are polling about (and which has an 80% approval rate on this Board's poll) is far more similar to FP- than it is to the original test of FP+. If we get to that point as a final product, it would be fair to conclude that we did not get there organically, and instead got there because of complaints and guest dissatisfaction. That is, of course, impossible to prove. But a rolling FP system that allows people to use 5 or 6 a day seems antithetical to every reason that Disney provided for making the change over to FP+ in the first place.

 

[NavyDad]

Did you see the new data chart? Putting FP+ lines on rides that never had them before is going to create longer SB times for those rides. Me standing in that FP+ line is part of that problem.

Again - I just don't see that as a problem. Using a Fast Pass (virtual queue) for a ride you love and don't want to miss out on is part of the solution IMO.

 

[redrosesix]

I don't believe that is the agenda they are talking about.

The agenda is that many people on these boards were not in favor of FP Plus from the begining because it detracts from some of the advantages WE enjoyed under the old system.

They cherry pick data that supports their agenda (but does not really mean what they think it means) and try and support the conclussion that FP+ is a disaster and/or needs to be scrapped.

Many of these people (not all) believe that if they complain enough about it on internet message boards that Disney will go back to the old system (that's just not happening).

Well, I knew I wouldn't like it better...and I don't. My family can get completely distracted by things like the monkeys in AK so we even avoid ADRs as much as possible. But I found the negative posts about the system before I left to be very helpful (otherwise we'd have never selected a FP for PoTC). It is what it is and nothing about the system right now is perfect. But if you're going, you have to find a way to deal with it so as not to let it ruin your vacation. By saying so, does that mean I have an agenda? I don't think so.

To me, it's the same as saying that if you're going to be in Florida in February you should pack a sweater because it can get cold after dark. Certainly doesn't mean I have an agenda to keep people from traveling to Florida in the winter.

 

[DividedSky]

On crowded days, we are seeing that. Go back and look at what people were reporting first hand on President's Day weekend and Mardi Gras. Lots of "I've never seen waits like this, even for this time of year" posts. Maybe they are all exaggerations, or all inaccurate.

I looked at Presidents day weekend and touring plans reported wait times

For 2013, I used Saturday 2/16

For 2014, I used Saturday 2/15

Space Mtn
2013 – 95 minutes
2014 – 53 minutes

BTMRR
2013 – 68
2014 – 51

Peter Pan
2013 – 95
2014 – 61

Haunted Mansion
2013 - 40
2014 - 27

President’s day weekend was way busier in 2013 and the lines were longer. I do remember people complaining about how much longer the waits were (because of fp+), and I think an agenda has much to do with it as the waits were actually shorter because the park wasn't as busy as the year before.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Again - I just don't see that as a problem. Using a Fast Pass (virtual queue) for a ride you love and don't want to miss out on is part of the solution IMO.

What exactly is the problem that this is the solution to?

 

[Planogirl]

If I was planning a trip this year I'd be contributing to that problem too. HM is my favorite ride so it would definitely be a FP+ pick for me. Problem is I have a family of 5 and we all have different favorites so 2 of us will be stuck in much longer SB lines for our favorites than we ever had to stand in in the past.
I wouldn't go to WDW and expect no SB lines, but I don't want to spend my Spring Break vacation hoping for the best from now on either. Its sad that is what WDW vacations have come too

I've been mulling over that and the only logical conclusion I can come to is to make it to rope drop to ride a few of those favorites and also to definitely get to MK more than one day maybe even three. It's odd because we would likely have to skip one or more of the other Disney parks to make sure that we rode our favorites at MK though. We only go to the Disney parks a maximum of 6 days and I don't see that changing.

 

[JimmyV]

Your comment earlier that went something like "Even more important than Josh's data is first hand reports we are seeing from the parks" actually made me laugh out loud

You can take my first-hand report that I have never waited in a 75 minute line at Test Track at 9:20 (and for which the CMs just changed the posted wait time from 20 to 30 minutes due to their vast experience and seasoned expectations) and discount it as a lie or an exaggeration. That is your prerogative. I cannot make you believe that account. If you want to look at Josh's data and conclude that the chronograph function on my watch was inoperative or that I did not know how to use it, that is fine. But when hundreds of people say that they are now waiting in longer SB lines than ever before, my eyes and ears will perk up. And when I experience it first-hand, I will believe. This Board is comprised of some of the most skilled and experienced Disney guests on the planet. When we get first-hand reports here, I do not think that they warrant a "laugh-out-loud" reaction. Skepticism? Perhaps. But not outright, laughed-off disapproval.

 

[NavyDad]

I would disagree with your conclusion. Most who have been labeled "fp+ haters" here have no illusions re:the old system. They know it is gone and not coming back.

As always, I find it interesting that its ok for one side to apply labels and agendas to the other, but if the other side were to do the same it wouldn't be ok.

When it comes down to it you either have an agenda or you do not whether someone labels you with it or not.

In my case I prefered the old system the way it was because it benefited my family. I did tons of research and was able to exploit ineficiency in the system to my advantage. If I had to pick I would pick the old system and milk ever ounce of fun I could out of my vacation.

At the same time I understand the science of queueing and what Disney is tryig to do. I understand that under a more efficient queueing system some people are going to benefit less (my family) but most are going to benefit more. I also understand internet message boards for Disney experts and social media are not representative of the whole.

Many people on here either don't understand these concepts or they just refuse to admit them because the outcome does not benefit them.

A duck is a duck even if no one "labels" it as such.

 

[JimmyV]

I looked at Presidents day weekend and touring plans reported wait times...

But that was the problem. "Reported wait times" are based on the posted wait and people all over were complaining about how inaccurate they were. More so than they had experienced before. I, myself reported the wait at Test Track to be 30 minutes the second that it rolled over on the board from 20 to 30. Here I was, thinking that I was helping Touring Plans by reporting a wait time and it turns out that I was contributing to the problem. But I waited 75 minutes. Unfortunately, Touring Plans does not have an accurate statistic for "timed waits" as there aren't enough of those. After my Test Track debacle, I started submitting "timed waits" whenever I could. But internet connectivity was bad and often times the system had trouble receiving my data. But I did what I could.

Edit to add:
I just checked TP myself. I don't seem to be able to call up 2013 data. But here is what I found for Test Track on 2/16/14 at 9:50 (the day we there and the closest time to when we were there):

• Reported Wait Time=57 minutes
• Predicted Wait Time=25 minutes
• "Observed Wait Time"=90 minutes

The Reported Wait Time is the Posted Wait Time. That is meaningless to me.
The Predicted Wait Time is what Touring Plans earns its money trying to figure out. Based on years and years of data, statistics and observations, they predicted that at 9:50, the wait should be about 25 minutes. Now, nobody is paying me for my predicitions, but in my earlier post, I stated that I would have expected the wait to be right in that ballpark based on my many days of repeating this same itinerary.
Now come the biggie. "Observed Wait Time". This is, apparently, the amount of time that people actually waited. For us, about 20 minutes earlier, it was 75 minutes. For the unlucky behind us, it was 90 minutes. So go ahead. Laugh out loud about the fact that the most reliable wait time prediction company predicted a 25 minute wait, Disney posted a 60 minute wait, and people actually waited 90 minutes.

 

[redrosesix]

I totally agree the changes in STBY wait times need to be factored into touring plans. I'm sure Josh and the folks at TP are hard at work figuring this stuff out.

I will say that "first-hand" reports on internet message boards are about the most un-reliable indicators you could depend on.

Your comment earlier that went something like "Even more important than Josh's data is first hand reports we are seeing from the parks" actually made me laugh out loud

I've seen on here for years anecdotes about "the parks are way more crowded now then they ever were in the last 30 years" = not true

"People are going to stop eating at Disney because food quality is down and prices are up" = not true

"I know for a fact people are not spending as much on shopping at Disney any more because my cousin's wife's brother at Disney usually spends $800 and this year on their 15th trip they only spent $200" = means nothing because merchandise sales are up over 60% in the last decade.

I disagree. While some things posted may be true fabrications, I think most are things that could happen -- good or bad.

But I've had people disagree with my posts about Pres Week by saying that it couldn't have happened because FP+ worked perfectly for them in October. Obviously, not a fair comparison. But if somebody else was there in January, when crowds are historically low, I would have to decide whether their experience is relevant to what I should have expected. Same for anyone traveling at a less crowded time in the future -- what I saw/experienced may not be relevant for them at all, especially since by that time the system may have changed...again.

 

[NavyDad]

I looked at Presidents day weekend and touring plans reported wait times

For 2013, I used Saturday 2/16

For 2014, I used Saturday 2/15

Space Mtn
2013 – 95 minutes
2014 – 53 minutes

BTMRR
2013 – 68
2014 – 51

Peter Pan
2013 – 95
2014 – 61

Haunted Mansion
2013 - 40
2014 - 27

President’s day weekend was way busier in 2013 and the lines were longer. I do remember people complaining about how much longer the waits were (because of fp+), and I think an agenda has much to do with it as the waits were actually shorter because the park wasn't as busy as the year before.

Josh's data suggested many of the headliners had similar or even lower STBY times while many secondary rides have had higher STBY times. These numbers will continue to fluctuate as they tweak the system but it appears to me the system is working exactly as it was intended. (not including anecdotes and cherry-picking)