I am perfectly prepared for my assumptions to be blown up, and to be proven wrong. But (and I know I sound like a broken record on this thread) unless for some reason Disney significantly reduces LL capacity under this new system, I do not see much of a necessary change in strategies from
Genie+.
I'm still trying to see how this forces anyone to rope drop. Under Genie+, you could make one selection at 7AM, and the next at 11, and then 1PM - from anywhere. Under LLMP, you can make three in advance, for any times, from anywhere. I get that if you didn't want to actually arrive at a park until after 5PM you could have more LLs under Genie+ lined up, but then how much time would you actually have to use them? And based on my experience, at that point in the evening, these two systems become basically interchangeable, for all but a few extremely popular attractions (SDD, 7DMT, etc). In other words, at 7PM at HS either with LLMP or Genie+ or FP+ once you tap in there's probably lots of other LL options to choose from.
As to the tiers - I've been mulling this over. The feeling is the new system could freeze you out of more than one Tier 1 ride a day. Maybe true - but was Genie+ much better? With that, assuming you picked a Tier 1 at 7AM, the earliest you could try for another Tier 1 was at 11AM, or after you tapped in, which, if the ride is super popular, could probably be after 11AM anyway with your return time. And if your strategy with Genie+ was get the earliest possible time for a Tier 1, so you have a better shot at another one for later, that meant rope dropping that park anyway.
I get that's confusing; my point is, under Genie+ it isn't like you can sleep in or not actually enter a park until the afternoon and still have a great shot at difficult to book rides. If you did that, and Tier 1 rides were still available at 11AM, that suggests to me they still will under LLMP. Which means, I guess, if we really want to try for another Tier 1 that day, we probably should be at a park by 11AM to use our first selection. Which is a decision we will have to make.
I do get the flexibility thing; I am hoping you can modify (or even cancel? - probably not) easily. The fear folk have is that somehow pre-booking will mean
having to select in advance or risk not having any choices day of. But remember, it's not like MORE people will be making LL picks than before with Genie+ - in fact, there should be quite a few less. So if in the afternoon at MK most rides had LL return times available when you were using Genie+, the same should be true with LLMP.