Why wait times have gotten crazy

[larryz]

So uhhhhh 40 pages. You guys ever figure it out?

I think we've decided it's all your fault, what with free crowd calendars and all...

 

[Budshark]

Completely unscientific, non-statistical observations...

Just came back from 6 nights at Disney. First time with Magicbands and FP+... went in "scared".

General Observations:

• Most crowded early November I've ever seen.
• Crowds were more widely dispersed than I've ever seen.
• People moved with a purpose, most common statement "our Fastpass starts in X minutes, we need to go"

Wait time observations:

• On more than 1 occasion observed a cast member scan a wait time badge and then hold it for many minutes (>5) - artificially inflating wait times.
• Wait times were rarely close to the posted or MDE claimed time. 50 minute Peter Pan was 30 minutes. 60 minute RnRC was 35 minutes. 40 minute 7DMT was 25 minutes. 25 minute Buzz Lightyear was 10 minutes. 30 minute Pooh was 10 minutes. Every line had a "scary" wait posted, and a very reasonable actual wait time.
• Line stacking was in full use. On multiple occasions found exterior switchbacks in use, while many interior switchbacks were bypassed. Not sure if this was by design.
• Worst rides for waits - Jungle Cruise and TSMM. Those were the only 2 rides we found to be close to their posted waits.

So what do I think is happening?
I think FP+ has distributed crowds more widely, I think it is keeping people moving and not loitering. I think either with intent or at the CM level they are inflating ride times to discourage the "let me jump on this ride since its only 10 minutes and then hit my fastness". I think with inflated wait times showing 30 minutes+, it pushes people into scheduling and using their fast passes more exclusively. We made several decisions based on posted wait times to not take a chance, despite knowing the posted wait time was likely wrong.

Edit: Also, I think its a new system that hasn't been fully adjusted to. The lines have been adjusted so its hard to "observe" what the wait is like you could formally, because they've changed how they flow in the buildings. Also, with Fastpass+ there seems to be more peak and dead surges. For example, we watched on several occasions where the FP+ line would be empty, then a show/parade/event would end, and there would be a flood of FP+ people come into the ride, which then effectively brought the quickly moving standby line to a halt. So a 10 minute wait might surge up to a 30 minute wait in a matter of 5 minutes - without a change in the length of the standby line. I don't think Disney has a good way to handle these variables yet. They don't take a posted wait time of 10 minutes, look at the FP+ line and adjust it to 25. So maybe, all the other items (artificially inflating wait times) are a way to cover themselves. Better to post 40 minutes, and take 20 then to post 20 and take 40.

 

[tlmadden73]

Edit: Also, I think its a new system that hasn't been fully adjusted to. The lines have been adjusted so its hard to "observe" what the wait is like you could formally, because they've changed how they flow in the buildings. Also, with Fastpass+ there seems to be more peak and dead surges. For example, we watched on several occasions where the FP+ line would be empty, then a show/parade/event would end, and there would be a flood of FP+ people come into the ride, which then effectively brought the quickly moving standby line to a halt. So a 10 minute wait might surge up to a 30 minute wait in a matter of 5 minutes - without a change in the length of the standby line. I don't think Disney has a good way to handle these variables yet. They don't take a posted wait time of 10 minutes, look at the FP+ line and adjust it to 25. So maybe, all the other items (artificially inflating wait times) are a way to cover themselves. Better to post 40 minutes, and take 20 then to post 20 and take 40.

This I think the posted wait times are just not easily predictable now because of this. A surge of fast pass users at any given time will cause an immediate increase in the standby wait and that can't be predicted.

So people potentially complaining about "Haunted Mansion never used to have wait times of X before Fast Pass" .. are correct .. but is the actual wait time what is posted?

 

[mesaboy2]

This I think the posted wait times are just not easily predictable now because of this. A surge of fast pass users at any given time will cause an immediate increase in the standby wait and that can't be predicted.

So people potentially complaining about "Haunted Mansion never used to have wait times of X before Fast Pass" .. are correct .. but is the actual wait time what is posted?

Hasn't this always been the case, since the introduction of Legacy FP?

 

[larryz]

Hasn't this always been the case, since the introduction of Legacy FP?

Indeed, the very incarnation of FP+, specifically to avoid exactly that kind of thing...

 

[helenb]

Okay, I'm not an expert, but I read both the Touring Plans blog and Josh's blog regularly, and from what I've seen on both of those sites, it looks like the average waits/crowds were up in September and October, and down in the first week of November. The obvious conclusion (although not necessarily the only conclusion) is that the holiday parties are what is driving the craziness.

There have been threads here talking about how crowded the parties were this year, and how difficult it was to get things done. The parties sold out in record time, and while the parties were going on, every day at the MK was crowded, even days where there wasn't actually a party going on (as non-party-goers wanted to stay later at the MK). Then in the first week of November, where there were no parties, all of a sudden everything was reasonable again.

So I'm thinking that this party thing has backfired, and suddenly the 'down times' for the resort are insane, because everyone wants to go to (or avoid) the parties. It makes me glad that we usually go in June, when there's nothing like this going on.

I'm not saying that this is the answer, but I'd like to know what people think of this conclusion.

 

[dlavender]

Completely unscientific, non-statistical observations...

Just came back from 6 nights at Disney. First time with Magicbands and FP+... went in "scared".

General Observations:

• Most crowded early November I've ever seen.
• Crowds were more widely dispersed than I've ever seen.
• People moved with a purpose, most common statement "our Fastpass starts in X minutes, we need to go"

Wait time observations:

• On more than 1 occasion observed a cast member scan a wait time badge and then hold it for many minutes (>5) - artificially inflating wait times.
• Wait times were rarely close to the posted or MDE claimed time. 50 minute Peter Pan was 30 minutes. 60 minute RnRC was 35 minutes. 40 minute 7DMT was 25 minutes. 25 minute Buzz Lightyear was 10 minutes. 30 minute Pooh was 10 minutes. Every line had a "scary" wait posted, and a very reasonable actual wait time.
• Line stacking was in full use. On multiple occasions found exterior switchbacks in use, while many interior switchbacks were bypassed. Not sure if this was by design.
• Worst rides for waits - Jungle Cruise and TSMM. Those were the only 2 rides we found to be close to their posted waits.

So what do I think is happening?
I think FP+ has distributed crowds more widely, I think it is keeping people moving and not loitering. I think either with intent or at the CM level they are inflating ride times to discourage the "let me jump on this ride since its only 10 minutes and then hit my fastness". I think with inflated wait times showing 30 minutes+, it pushes people into scheduling and using their fast passes more exclusively. We made several decisions based on posted wait times to not take a chance, despite knowing the posted wait time was likely wrong.

Edit: Also, I think its a new system that hasn't been fully adjusted to. The lines have been adjusted so its hard to "observe" what the wait is like you could formally, because they've changed how they flow in the buildings. Also, with Fastpass+ there seems to be more peak and dead surges. For example, we watched on several occasions where the FP+ line would be empty, then a show/parade/event would end, and there would be a flood of FP+ people come into the ride, which then effectively brought the quickly moving standby line to a halt. So a 10 minute wait might surge up to a 30 minute wait in a matter of 5 minutes - without a change in the length of the standby line. I don't think Disney has a good way to handle these variables yet. They don't take a posted wait time of 10 minutes, look at the FP+ line and adjust it to 25. So maybe, all the other items (artificially inflating wait times) are a way to cover themselves. Better to post 40 minutes, and take 20 then to post 20 and take 40.

I see these observations a lot, but I have never been so lucky with inflated SB times. DW and I always joke that the SB signs should read "at least" and then the time....even 20 mins before closing when most people have observed that sb's are purposely inflated, we waited 40 mins in a 35 min sb line...

We watched in real time from the snack stand underneath the People Mover the Buzz wait shoot from 45 to 70 mins as a hoard of FPsers descended on the ride..

Hopefully next time we get to observe these inflated times...

 

[NYHeel]

Yeah, when I was at MK on 10/26 we waited in 2 long lines, Buzz and the Under the Sea rides. Both were longer than the posted wait time, with Under the Sea by about 15 minutes. I think there was actually an announcement apologizing for the long wait time. It was about a 45-50 minute wait when the posted time was 30 minutes (may have been 35). Buzz was only about 5-10 minutes longer than posted.

 

[patdoc98]

Okay, I'm not an expert, but I read both the Touring Plans blog and Josh's blog regularly, and from what I've seen on both of those sites, it looks like the average waits/crowds were up in September and October, and down in the first week of November. The obvious conclusion (although not necessarily the only conclusion) is that the holiday parties are what is driving the craziness.

There have been threads here talking about how crowded the parties were this year, and how difficult it was to get things done. The parties sold out in record time, and while the parties were going on, every day at the MK was crowded, even days where there wasn't actually a party going on (as non-party-goers wanted to stay later at the MK). Then in the first week of November, where there were no parties, all of a sudden everything was reasonable again.

So I'm thinking that this party thing has backfired, and suddenly the 'down times' for the resort are insane, because everyone wants to go to (or avoid) the parties. It makes me glad that we usually go in June, when there's nothing like this going on.

I'm not saying that this is the answer, but I'd like to know what people think of this conclusion.

Probably a lot of truth here, although the parties are just one of the factors. But I wouldn't say anything has necessarily "backfired" from Disney's perspective. "The parks are too crowded with paying customers" is a good problem to have.

 

[dlavender]

With the success of the parties, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Easter, and 4th of July party soon...

 

[mesaboy2]

With the success of the parties, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Easter, and 4th of July party soon...

No chance. Parties are there to spike attendance during traditionally low-crowd times. Clearing MK of day guests near Easter or Independence Day at 7:00p would go over like a fart in church.

 

[dsdeleon]

The problem is that WDW has not yet implemented a true queueing strategy. They have a priority queue (the FP+) which can easily starve the second class standby queue. The FP+ is also not a low latency queue b/c it's still such a PIA for CMs to explain and wait on Mickey to Mickey. The good news is, this can all be fixed and there are plenty of lessons learned in computers and networking. Disney needs to do a longer range RFID (like MM) and start to implement things like forward and backwards congestion queuing based on real time things (for examples: ride breakdowns, people that reserved FP+ and didn't enter a park, etc.) and also basic queueing algorithms for the 2 classes of lines themselves.

Also just want to mention that Disney already has no problem giving lots and lots of FP+ if you want to pay for it. I can get 9 FP+ for a single day in multiple parks 60 days out with a few sets of tickets and a couple throwaway campsites.

I also think AP holders horde FP+ and they give them to others or just don't show up at all and Disney is not rereleasing those spots in the queue because it's not setup to track and queue real time.

 

[mom2rtk]

No chance. Parties are there to spike attendance during traditionally low-crowd times. Clearing MK of day guests near Easter or Independence Day at 7:00p would go over like a fart in church.

Agreed. And Disney already tried adding a hard ticket party to other times of the year with the Pirate & Princess Party. Everyone here loved it because of the low attendance...... which is precisely why Disney discontinued it.

 

[DoingDisney]

Hasn't this always been the case, since the introduction of Legacy FP?

True, but if they have increased the ratio of FP to SB then surges could be more extreme ?

 

[wisblue]

True, but if they have increased the ratio of FP to SB then surges could be more extreme ?

Agreed. If more FPs are issued there can be more variance in how many guests arrive with FPs in a given period of time, making it more difficult to estimate the standby wait. So, if Disney wants to be conservative with posted wait times, they will likely be more overstated than they were in the past. Without access to Disney's data on actual waits (which they get from those red cards) there is no way to prove one way or another if this is happening. But, I know that our experience has been that actual waits are routinely shorter than posted waits.

 

[bcrook]

Okay, I'm not an expert, but I read both the Touring Plans blog and Josh's blog regularly, and from what I've seen on both of those sites, it looks like the average waits/crowds were up in September and October, and down in the first week of November. The obvious conclusion (although not necessarily the only conclusion) is that the holiday parties are what is driving the craziness.

There have been threads here talking about how crowded the parties were this year, and how difficult it was to get things done. The parties sold out in record time, and while the parties were going on, every day at the MK was crowded, even days where there wasn't actually a party going on (as non-party-goers wanted to stay later at the MK). Then in the first week of November, where there were no parties, all of a sudden everything was reasonable again.

So I'm thinking that this party thing has backfired, and suddenly the 'down times' for the resort are insane, because everyone wants to go to (or avoid) the parties. It makes me glad that we usually go in June, when there's nothing like this going on.

I'm not saying that this is the answer, but I'd like to know what people think of this conclusion.

For me, I agree with this idea. The parties and FP+ are two variables that don't work well together. I think an early June trip makes the most sense for me going forward. Maybe Pandora will be open by June 2017, and I might give this another try.

 

[WillAustin]

The parties and FP+ are two variables that don't work well together.

I completely agree with this statement.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Hasn't this always been the case, since the introduction of Legacy FP?

But with legacy, we would have come back later if the FP return line was that long. Now we don't have a choice.

Agreed. And Disney already tried adding a hard ticket party to other times of the year with the Pirate & Princess Party. Everyone here loved it because of the low attendance...... which is precisely why Disney discontinued it.

They realized they could just add races and make even more money.

True, but if they have increased the ratio of FP to SB then surges could be more extreme ?

I'm sure it has to do with utilization rate. With legacy FP, we only used to see a few rides run out of FP before the end of the day; Soarin', Test Track, and TSMM. Now it's much harder to get any of the headlines past 10 or 11 in the morning. And we saw lots of people using their FP for attractions that only had a 5 minute wait.

 

[alopez926]

Just back from trip starting 11/11 and ending 11/15. MK was a 9 on 11/11 (7 predicted), HS was an 8 on 11/12 (5 predicted), Epcot was a 6 on 11/13 (5 predicted), not including F&W which made WS crazy busy on Friday night--felt like a 9/10. MK was a 9 on 11/14 (8 predicted) and AK was a 6 on 11/15 (6 predicted). With good planning we survived our MK and HS days and got everything done that we hoped to accomplish. And coming from me, who never goes to WDW when crowds are predicted to be above a 5 or 6, it wasn't awful, but it was unpleasant at times. My mom was using an ECV for the first time and just trying to navigate the crowds on the scooter was a bit too much for her.

I will never go back during party season, even though the decorations were lovely. The parties have made MK almost unbearable on non-party days, and if you want to see Wishes and the night time parades you have to go on a non-party day. Yes, Virginia, the crowds are way up, and I don't see them going away any time soon. Today was our departure day so we didn't go to the parks. Just for fun I checked wait times while sitting in the airport. 7DMT was posted at 160 minutes at 2:15 this afternoon!! I couldn't believe it. MK was supposed to be a 5 today.

 

[larryz]

MK was supposed to be a 5 today.

Haven't you heard? 5 is the new 10.