Why wait times have gotten crazy

[DoingDisney]

Kudos to Disney if that trend bears out over the entire year.

But I've been contending for some time that increasing prices might just push people from peak (more expensive) times into lesser expensive times of year. I would love to see figures for the entire year. I don't doubt that attendance in general is up, but I just wonder how much of this quarter's spike is movement from other times of year.

Note they can only account for 0.7% increase in people January for August, but he thinks it might be 1.5% or 2%

He speculates its actually the promotions people who filled the rooms, which yes is great for Disney I am sure.

 

[DoingDisney]

Also note Testa was questioned as to whether this was a result (partial or in full) of the fact there was an extra week included in the quarter, which would increase attendance up to 8.3% alone. Should be interesting to see what his response is on that front.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Also note Testa was questioned as to whether this was a result (partial or in full) of the fact there was an extra week included in the quarter, which would increase attendance up to 8.3% alone. Should be interesting to see what his response is on that front.

I also believe the 15% increase was for all of the domestic Disney Parks. Hard to say exactly how big the increase for the WDW Parks or any individual parks.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I also believe the 15% increase was for all of the domestic Disney Parks. Hard to say exactly how big the increase for the WDW Parks or any individual parks.

if it was for all if the domestic parks, i would be interested in seeing the breakdown. DLR's 60th, in conjunction with the premiere of 3 new nighttime spectaculars b/w the 2 parks, has definitely impacted attendance there quite a lot from all reports I've been reading on those forums.

 

[over50visits]

For decades we went to WDW at all times of the year, and NEVER was there a wait for POTC, IASW, or HM. Then they create the data mining/tracking system, sold it as MDE, and simultaneously the wait times for these "go to" rides started climbing.

Hmmm....quacks like a duck

 

[mom2rtk]

if it was for all if the domestic parks, i would be interested in seeing the breakdown. DLR's 60th, in conjunction with the premiere of 3 new nighttime spectaculars b/w the 2 parks, has definitely impacted attendance there quite a lot from all reports I've been reading on those forums.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a huge piece of that was indeed from DLR. Reports of peak crowds continue to roll in. I know we experienced some crazy crowds a few of our days, including one that turned out to be rated a level 10.

 

[larryz]

For decades we went to WDW at all times of the year, and NEVER was there a wait for POTC, IASW, or HM. Then they create the data mining/tracking system, sold it as MDE, and simultaneously the wait times for these "go to" rides started climbing.

Hmmm....quacks like a duck

And smells like a duck...

 

[MrInfinity]

You can give people who stay on-site their 60 day window to grantee themselves a FP+ while letting the guests staying off-site or locals a shot to try their luck with legacy FPes (I'd say divvy up the Fastpass hourly rations to about 60% go to FP+ reservations and 40% to legacy paper tickets).

It's just numbers. There are enough attractions at the MK for all guests to do 6 things. However you want to break them down, you're just moving FPs from one system to another. Unless you can come up w a system that gets you or I significantly more than the average guest, you're not going to get back to the goodness that was FP-.

 

[flicx]

For decades we went to WDW at all times of the year, and NEVER was there a wait for POTC, IASW, or HM. Then they create the data mining/tracking system, sold it as MDE, and simultaneously the wait times for these "go to" rides started climbing.

Hmmm....quacks like a duck

Interesting theory!

 

[Angel Ariel]

Len Testa's tweet: Disney said WDW attendance was up 15% this past quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/LenTesta/status/662615633792737280?p=v

That plus attraction closings goes a long way toward explaining the increase in wait times.

Also shows the reason for the huge increase in prices (and why we should anticipate more in the future). If they can get that many more people to show up for a diminished product, there's no reason not to keep increasing prices.

Also note Testa was questioned as to whether this was a result (partial or in full) of the fact there was an extra week included in the quarter, which would increase attendance up to 8.3% alone. Should be interesting to see what his response is on that front.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if a huge piece of that was indeed from DLR. Reports of peak crowds continue to roll in. I know we experienced some crazy crowds a few of our days, including one that turned out to be rated a level 10.

So I was reading the DIS article on the earnings call and it said the attendance growth was 7%...quite a difference from the 15% quoted here, so I did a google search to try and figure out the discrepancy.

This is what Len posted on Touring Plans on Friday 11/6:

Something interesting from Disney’s earnings call yesterday:

At Parks and Resorts the investments we’ve made in our domestic Parks continue to drive higher guest visitation. Attendance at our domestic Parks was up 15% in the quarter and up 7% excluding the benefit of the fifty-third week. Disneyland in particular saw very strong attendance growth due to tremendous excitement for the 60th anniversary celebration. Per-capita spending was up 1% on higher admissions, merchandise and food and beverage spending. Per-room spending at our domestic hotels was up 7% and occupancy was up one percentage point to 84%.

Our Magic Kingdom analysis earlier this week showed 11.5% more people in line in September and October alone.

Disney’s didn’t break down attendance increases at the individual parks. Because it’s the most popular park by far, I suspect the Magic Kingdom got the largest bump. We’ll go back and check our models for the other parks, just to be sure.

Congrats to Disney – this is an historic level of growth.

Crowd calendar updates coming within days – Fred and Steve are working on them.

So 2 of the above questions seemed to be answered...the full quarter attendance (with the extra week) was 15%. But take that extra week out and compare last year's 4th quarter to this year's 4th quarter w/the same number of weeks and attendance growth was 7% (not as shocking as 15%). It also appears that DLR "in particular saw very strong attendance growth".

 

[DoingDisney]

So I was reading the DIS article on the earnings call and it said the attendance growth was 7%...quite a difference from the 15% quoted here, so I did a google search to try and figure out the discrepancy.

This is what Len posted on Touring Plans on Friday 11/6:



So 2 of the above questions seemed to be answered...the full quarter attendance (with the extra week) was 15%. But take that extra week out and compare last year's 4th quarter to this year's 4th quarter w/the same number of weeks and attendance growth was 7% (not as shocking as 15%). It also appears that DLR "in particular saw very strong attendance growth".

Ah yes, ok, now we are getting back to normal ... which again puts back into question, which Len has been investigating (and has pointed fingers at FP+) why the lines are so long and the crowds (at least seem to be) so large.

If attendance is up in the domestic parks by 7% in the quarter, but even the earnings call is noting the massive excitement over at DL ... if we split the attendance that would be 3.5% ... if we said it was more DL than WDW ... what are we talking 2% ? Seems about normal/right.

Great read and follow up Angel

 

[NYHeel]

Ah yes, ok, now we are getting back to normal ... which again puts back into question, which Len has been investigating (and has pointed fingers at FP+) why the lines are so long and the crowds (at least seem to be) so large.

If attendance is up in the domestic parks by 7% in the quarter, but even the earnings call is noting the massive excitement over at DL ... if we split the attendance that would be 3.5% ... if we said it was more DL than WDW ... what are we talking 2% ? Seems about normal/right.

Great read and follow up Angel

That's not how the math works. You don't split the attendance. Plus doesn't WDW get more visitors than DL, so it would be more weighted towards WDW.

But if you said that DL had a 10% increase over last year and you assumed that both parks had the same number of visitors then you're looking at a 4% increase for WDW. In reality it would probably be more like a 5% increase at WDW given a 10% increase at DL since WDW has more visitors and therefore their increase in attendance is more heavily weighted than DL.

 

[Retro Magic]

Been here since Saturday. Been to all parks and haven't waited more than 20min for anything. Again, between FP and going on stuff at non peak times, I rarely ever seem to have to worry about waits.

 

[3DisneyFanz]

That's not how the math works. You don't split the attendance. Plus doesn't WDW get more visitors than DL, so it would be more weighted towards WDW.

But if you said that DL had a 10% increase over last year and you assumed that both parks had the same number of visitors then you're looking at a 4% increase for WDW. In reality it would probably be more like a 5% increase at WDW given a 10% increase at DL since WDW has more visitors and therefore their increase in attendance is more heavily weighted than DL.

Just because WDW typically draws more people doesn't mean you should assume it is responsible for a majority of the growth. What has been done in Orlando to have you believe they've all of a sudden doubled or even triples the growth numbers they've previously seen?

 

[Happy_2_B]

For those following this issue on the TP blogsite, Len posted a new one this morning. Here is the link:

http://blog.touringplans.com/2015/11/09/breaking-disney-worlds-q4-attendance/

 

[ELSA711]

Been here since Saturday. Been to all parks and haven't waited more than 20min for anything. Again, between FP and going on stuff at non peak times, I rarely ever seem to have to worry about waits.

We were there last week and had the same experience. Longest wait was HM for 20 min on Halloween when the posted time said 35min
We found all the posted times were 15-20 min off. It was strange.

 

[NYHeel]

Just because WDW typically draws more people doesn't mean you should assume it is responsible for a majority of the growth. What has been done in Orlando to have you believe they've all of a sudden doubled or even triples the growth numbers they've previously seen?

Math and Disney's report tells me. They said they had 7% growth in domestic park attendance, right? So that has to come from DL and WDW. If you make an assumption for DL you can easily solve for the WDW growth rate.

Unless I'm missing something about other parks being included in the report.

 

[Happy_2_B]

Math and Disney's report tells me. They said they had 7% growth in domestic park attendance, right? So that has to come from DL and WDW. If you make an assumption for DL you can easily solve for the WDW growth rate.

Unless I'm missing something about other parks being included in the report.

Correct. But the 7% is across all parks. Since Disney said the majority of this was from DW due to the 60th anniversary celebration- there is only going to be a small percentage of that 7% left over that can be 'allotted' to WDW. Then those left over 'percentages' have to be attributed to a given park(s). So each park, overall, is going to see a minimal increase above and beyond the normal 2-3% growth they have been experiencing annually. Is attendance up? Yes. Is it up enough to solely explain the increase in waits? Probably not.

 

[NYHeel]

Correct. But the 7% is across all parks. Since Disney said the majority of this was from DW due to the 60th anniversary celebration- there is only going to be a small percentage of that 7% left over that can be 'allotted' to WDW. Then those left over 'percentages' have to be attributed to a given park(s). So each park, overall, is going to see a minimal increase above and beyond the normal 2-3% growth they have been experiencing annually. Is attendance up? Yes. Is it up enough to solely explain the increase in waits? Probably not.

I don't mean to be a jerk but I think a quick Math lesson is due. You don't allot percentage points to WDW and DL from the 7%. The 7% is the total change for the quarter from the year before and is essentially an average from WDW and DL. Here's an example.

Say there were 100 visitors in a day (or quarter it really doesn't matter) and they're evenly split between WDW and DL. A year later after 7% growth there are 107 visitors. Now let's assume that DL had a 10% increase in visitors. So that means that DL, which had 50 visitors the year prior, now has 55 visitors. This means that WDW had the remaining 52 visitors which amount to a 4% increase. So with equal visitors between the two resorts and assuming a 10% DL growth, WDW had a 4% increase. You don't merely allot percentage points to each park.

However, if you assume that WDW has twice as many visitors than DL (which is true based on 2014 numbers from wikipedia across the 4 WDW parks vs. the 2 DL parks) and say that, in my example WDW had 66 visitors to DL's 34. Now DL grows to 37.4 and that leaves WDW with 69.6 visitors. This is an almost 5.5% increase in attendance, significantly higher than 2%.

Now I don't know if DL really had a 10% increase in attendance and I don't know if Disney counts attendance per park or just looks at unique visitors in total (though they probably do count attendance per park) but my main point is that you can't allot percentage points to WDW and DL. You have to average them across to get to the 7% number. The same also goes for parks within WDW. It's all averaged against each other to get to 7%. It's not allotted to each park.

 

[dlavender]

This thread is amazingly crazy....

Since no one except Disney knows the real numbers, can we just pretend that WDW saw a 7% increase?

If they did see a 7 % increase, is that enough to increase wait times?

If Stitch was a better ride, would we be having this argument?