*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[Shaden]

Instead of having rides exiting into the shops like on POTC and Splash...

Maybe they should just build all the lines for the rides so that they snake through shops for most of their length.

That way guests would have to visit shops while they wait to board rides!

Lol, too good of an idea. Though where would they display the picture on a screen for me to take a picture of with my phone instead of paying $20 ???

 

[Planogirl]

I like some of these ideas but they'd better include restrooms along the way too.

 

[Shaden]

I like some of these ideas but they'd better include restrooms along the way too.

The only time I have ever stood in a line more than 25 mins, was for EE. The post outside was for 20. I had just had 2 back to back iced Chai Latte's from the shack by the Bird Show (AWESOME) .... yea ... the wait was actually about an hour. Half way in ... I was DYING ... so I am on board with this.


Really though, given that before the busy time of the year, it appeared wait times were about the same.

It is only with data including the Busy time around presidents day that we see wait times increasing.... but at the same time we also say FP return wait times peak beyond what was ever experienced ... so I wonder what the total impact on wait time was ... Thoughts ????

 

[Planogirl]

The only time I have ever stood in a line more than 25 mins, was for EE. The post outside was for 20. I had just had 2 back to back iced Chai Latte's from the shack by the Bird Show (AWESOME) .... yea ... the wait was actually about an hour. Half way in ... I was DYING ... so I am on board with this.


Really though, given that before the busy time of the year, it appeared wait times were about the same.

It is only with data including the Busy time around presidents day that we see wait times increasing.... but at the same time we also say FP return wait times peak beyond what was ever experienced ... so I wonder what the total impact on wait time was ... Thoughts ????

Wait... Chai lattes from somewhere by the bird show?! I've seen the bird show but missed the chai and I LOVE chai lattes. I'll have to pay more attention.

As for wait times, I think that we need more data. I expect that this summer will tell the tale.

 

[magicbob]

For some? Yes. Overall? No. The AVERAGE wait is the same. Which is the whole point of this thread. The average wait across all guests is unchanged.

Take these two number sets:

A) 10, 10, 10, 40, 40, 40, 50, 60, 60, 60 Total 380, Average 38
B) 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 40, 40, 50, 50, 50 Total 380, Average 38

If those are wait times. And you are a park operator. And you can choose for every 10 guests to experience Set A or Set B. Which would you choose?

A) First 3 ppl averaged 10 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 50 min.
B) First 3 ppl averaged 30 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 41 min.

Set A involves 3 out of 10 people riding very quickly, but most people waiting a long time. This is akin to FP-

Set B involves everyone waiting more or less 30-50 minutes, for an average of the same 38 minutes. This is FP+

Now, imagine EVERY time those ppl go on a ride, the times are the same. As you can see, the first 3 ppl in Set A rock out on FP-, waiting 10 min PER RIDE. But the last 7 wait extreme times over and over.

If you were one of "the 3" who used FP-, FP+ sucks for you as your typical wait goes up from 10 min to 30 min. But if you were part of the majority 7 people, your average wait went down from 50 min to 41 min. Over the course of say 6 rides (picking 6 as 6 would be 6 FP- for a good FP- user and 0 for a non FP- user, or 3 FP+ and 3 via non-FP+ in the new system) that saves those 7 people about an hour per day!

(It costs the first 3 ppl a boatload per day - but, 7 are happier and 7 is more than 3).

The AVERAGE time waiting is the same. It is only who is doing the waiting that is different.

I really don't think it has "degraded" to anything, actually I think the conversations in here are pretty awesome.

As for the 80/20 rule. I don't think you understand it.

The 80/20 rule is that 20% of clients account for 80% of revenue.

Now, I am not sure what the ratio is, but I am relatively sure that that there is a portion of Disney guests, who account for a larger portion of Disney revenue than their "portion". Ie: 10 or 20 or 30% of return guests account for 20, 30, 40% of Disney revenue.

That's why it is so important to make sure these guests are happy, and these guests are likely the guests "in the know" and those who would be most upset about FP+ ...

Really, you guys don't understand the 80/20 rule ... Its Called Pareto's Principle, you should google it.

fuzzylogic, your example does support your argument that FP+ makes the wait better for some at the expense of others who used to have shorter waits. But it only shows it for that ride and doesn't take into account that the FP+ holders for that ride will NOT have a FP+ for other rides due to limits, tiering, etc.

It also supports what some of us have been saying... FP+ makes it a lot worse (using your numbers... 30-40 minute wait vs. 10 minutes) for the 20%ers in order to marginally improve the wait (50 minutes vs. 60 minutes) for the 80%. And even though they saved 10 minutes for the ride in your example, it is offset by long waits the rest of the day after their three FP+ are gone.

This is a classic case of redistribution. You have to take a lot away from those who have more in order to have enough supply to redistribute. But in order to give some to everyone, it's spread so thin that it really only amounts to symbolism and no substance. The "have not" beneficiaries don't see any substantial benefit, but it's significantly detrimental to the former "haves."

ETA: The real beneficiaries are NOT the "average" guest, but the small subset of guests who are savvy planners that want to sleep in, eat breakfast, golf, etc. and then stroll into the parks later and ride TSMM, etc. without a long wait instead of having to get up for RD to facilitate that.

 

[Shaden]

Wait... Chai lattes from somewhere by the bird show?! I've seen the bird show but missed the chai and I LOVE chai lattes. I'll have to pay more attention.

As for wait times, I think that we need more data. I expect that this summer will tell the tale.

Frozen Chai Lattes ... they are awesome !!!!

And ... I guess its more like, if you walked out the exit for Kali River Rapids and walked straight ... there is a snack cart right there, and that's where they sell them ... just awesome

 

[Shaden]

fuzzylogic, your example does support your argument that FP+ makes the wait better for some at the expense of others who used to have shorter waits. But it only shows it for that ride and doesn't take into account that the FP+ holders for that ride will NOT have a FP+ for other rides due to limits, tiering, etc.

It also supports what some of us have been saying... FP+ makes it a lot worse (using your numbers... 30-40 minute wait vs. 10 minutes) for the 20%ers in order to marginally improve the wait (50 minutes vs. 60 minutes) for the 80%. And even though they saved 10 minutes for the ride in your example, it is offset by long waits the rest of the day after their three FP+ are gone.

This is a classic case of redistribution. You have to take a lot away from those who have more in order to have enough supply to redistribute. But in order to give some to everyone, it's spread so thin that it really only amounts to symbolism and no substance. The "have not" beneficiaries don't see any substantial benefit, but it's significantly detrimental to the former "haves."

ETA: The real beneficiaries are NOT the "average" guest, but the small subset of guests who are savvy planners that want to sleep in, eat breakfast, golf, etc. and then stroll into the parks later and ride TSMM, etc. without a long wait instead of having to get up for RD to facilitate that.

Indeed, this really is the problem.

So if the once in a life timers, are getting a marginally better time, saving a few minutes, but the return guests and the people Disney should/I imagine does care most about, are having significantly longer waits, doubling, tripling in some cases, they are probably going to give second thought about where to spend their vacation dollars.

And there are not "10 people waiting to take their spot" ... if there were, Disney would already have those people as return/loyal repeat guests.

 

[flicx]

And there are not "10 people waiting to take their spot" ... if there were, Disney would already have those people as return/loyal repeat guests.

I agree with you on this point. While things have been good for a few years that doesn't mean it will always be. Lest we not forget what happened after the 911 incident. Travel was off for years after that. A lot of the loyal customers were the first to return. Upsetting them isn't the best business plan!

 

[yeahhhhh7]

Collecting data is one thing. Analyzing it correctly is another!

The premise of that article:
FP+ changed the standby wait time of Dinosaur from 15 to 25 minutes.

However that is completely subjective. It could just as well be:

Disney World is experiencing a boom in attendance, as clearly evidenced by no free dining, fewer room discounts, higher ticket prices, and record crowds. Wait times are higher, driving the standby time for rides like Dinosaur from 15 to 30 minutes. But thanks to new ride management solutions like the revolutionary FP+, guests are able to get on 20% faster, reducing standby from 30 to 25 minutes, and getting any guest that would like to ride Dinosaur, on in 5-10 minutes once per day.

It's all in how you look at it. FP+

This. You can't look at one piece of the whole data picture and come to a conclusion like that. All possible evidence has to be considered.

 

[Shaden]

This. You can't look at one piece of the whole data picture and come to a conclusion like that. All possible evidence has to be considered.

Lol, people occasionally pop in an just quote that post by Fuzzy, and its one of his worst.

"Disney is currently experiencing a boom in attendance"

Attendance is up 1.5% .... that is not a boom, and as Josh has noted, that does not account for the increase in wait times.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Indeed, this really is the problem.

So if the once in a life timers, are getting a marginally better time, saving a few minutes, but the return guests and the people Disney should/I imagine does care most about, are having significantly longer waits, doubling, tripling in some cases, they are probably going to give second thought about where to spend their vacation dollars.

And there are not "10 people waiting to take their spot" ... if there were, Disney would already have those people as return/loyal repeat guests.

Disney thinks they can have their cake and eat it, too.

The loyalty of the 20% came about largely thanks to fast pass -- it's availability, and the flexibility of the system (in reality far more flexible than FP+, since you took FPs when you needed it, and just got in SB when you didn't, or when coming back later wasn't convenient).

They're clearly taking us for granted with this move. When they pulled the trigger on this tech boondoggle, they must have arrogantly assuming that they will retain our loyalty -- and that we will continue to account for 80% of their revenue -- while simultaneously thinking that they could get comparable loyalty from the 80% of occasional, casual or first-time guests.

That's why I compared it to communism in an earlier post; it creates the illusion of spreading the wealth, by offering a pittance to everyone, and thereby helping no one.

 

[Shaden]

Disney thinks they can have their cake and eat it, too.

The loyalty of the 20% came about largely thanks to fast pass -- it's availability, and the flexibility of the system (in reality far more flexible than FP+, since you took FPs when you needed it, and just got in SB when you didn't, or when coming back later wasn't convenient).

They're clearly taking us for granted with this move. When they pulled the trigger on this tech boondoggle, they must have arrogantly assuming that they will retain our loyalty -- and that we will continue to account for 80% of their revenue -- while simultaneously thinking that they could get comparable loyalty from the 80% of occasional, casual or first-time guests.

That's why I compared it to communism in an earlier post; it creates the illusion of spreading the wealth, by offering a pittance to everyone, and thereby helping no one.

I do agree with you to some extent here, good post.

I don't think that this change alienates all return guests, clearly some people definitely do enjoy the changes. BUT, I don't see that its going to gain them any more return guests.

As we stated, the impact on the once in a life timers is minimal, the impact on the people who return over and over and used the system to its fullest, is Huge. So where is the net impact going to be ? On luring first timers into becoming returners by marginally decreasing their wait times, when they probably would not even have noticed the difference either way ? (assuming their wait times don't actually increase as well that is) .... OR, by massively increasing the wait times for loyal return guests who used to make the most of the system ?

My guess is that this will have the greatest impact on the later, they will lose return guests (not all, this system does suit some people's touring style after all, esp those not really into maximizing attractions), but they wont really pick up an increase in return guests.

In the end, I don't see this as serving the interests of WDW as a company, esp not considering the investment they have had to front for it.

I think we will end up seeing this function much more like FP- did, though electronically and with the element of pre-booking.

 

[Planogirl]

I agree with you on this point. While things have been good for a few years that doesn't mean it will always be. Lest we not forget what happened after the 911 incident. Travel was off for years after that. A lot of the loyal customers were the first to return. Upsetting them isn't the best business plan!

I never understand why some are so dismissive of loyal guests. The once in a lifetime visitors are great but unless Disney can get them to change, they are still just once in a lifetime and then they're done.

 

[Planogirl]

I do agree with you to some extent here, good post.

I don't think that this change alienates all return guests, clearly some people definitely do enjoy the changes. BUT, I don't see that its going to gain them any more return guests.

As we stated, the impact on the once in a life timers is minimal, the impact on the people who return over and over and used the system to its fullest, is Huge. So where is the net impact going to be ? On luring first timers into becoming returners by marginally decreasing their wait times, when they probably would not even have noticed the difference either way ? (assuming their wait times don't actually increase as well that is) .... OR, by massively increasing the wait times for loyal return guests who used to make the most of the system ?

My guess is that this will have the greatest impact on the later, they will lose return guests (not all, this system does suit some people's touring style after all, esp those not really into maximizing attractions), but they wont really pick up an increase in return guests.

In the end, I don't see this as serving the interests of WDW as a company, esp not considering the investment they have had to front for it.

I think we will end up seeing this function much more like FP- did, though electronically and with the element of pre-booking.

Plus there is that word of mouth element that helps or hurts any company. Will it be good or bad? Or (as looks likely) both?

But don't forget that Disney also wants to keep track of us now so that they can market the right things at the right time. I personally find that more annoying than exciting.

 

[Davey Jones II]

In the end, I don't see this as serving the interests of WDW as a company, esp not considering the investment they have had to front for it.

Indeed. They spent $1.5 billion on a continuing headache and ongoing backlash. And this at a time when Universal is spending half a billion per year on new attractions, with the Potter expansion opening soon.

If Disney's master plan was to drive their most loyal customers into the arms of the competition, I'd have to say they're making great strides.

 

[KatieCharlotte]

Plus there is that word of mouth element that helps or hurts any company. Will it be good or bad? Or (as looks likely) both?

The Disney FB page seems to have had a recent flood of four and five star reviews. A week ago, there were quite a few bad reviews, many complaining about fastpass, but I couldn't find any of those this morning.

But I tend to think word of mouth from friends is more effective. We've all convinced people to go to Disney by mentioning the fun we had. A few years ago, I heard a mom complaining to a large group of moms about a two hour line for Peter Pan, but some of them had also heard from me about our trip a couple weeks earlier in which we avoided long lines.

 

[2Tiggies]

I never understand why some are so dismissive of loyal guests. The once in a lifetime visitors are great but unless Disney can get them to change, they are still just once in a lifetime and then they're done.

Absolutely. Also, your loyal repeat guests are free advertising for the company. If we haven't seen them, we are them, encouraging friends and family to try it out - just once- and then proceeding to help them become informed thereby upping their chances of a better experience with as many tips and tricks as possible ..... Yeah, I don't buy this attitude that Disney is disregarding the value of return visitors. That viewpoint can be forgiven the way we perceive these changes to affect us/them, but I'd be very surprised if that is the intention of Disney.

 

[flicx]

The Disney FB page seems to have had a recent flood of four and five star reviews. A week ago, there were quite a few bad reviews, many complaining about fastpass, but I couldn't find any of those this morning.

Ah yes seems they are monitoring the facebook page and taking down the negatives again. This kind of thing is wrong IMO!

 

[2Tiggies]

Ah yes seems they are monitoring the facebook page and taking down the negatives again. This kind of thing is wrong IMO!

I noticed that just before the weekend. I agree, it's out of order. Maybe it's time for a bit of peppering on their other posts about it lol. A few folk did that when they removed the review section entirely and it later magically reappeared after a minor rehab

 

[Shaden]

Ah yes seems they are monitoring the facebook page and taking down the negatives again. This kind of thing is wrong IMO!

The real backlash I saw was on the FP+ commercial they posted a couple months ago. Dramatically negative replies.

I am not sure if they are pulling down negative WDW reviews. But I also don't think its exactly relevant to FP+.

I mean, I would imagine, as others have pointed out about FP- ... that many of those people don't even know about FP or FP+. They might have been to WDW last week and used FP+ .... the just as likely (maybe more likely if you go by the numbers alone) were at WDW 5 or 10 years ago, and remember loving it, so are providing a 4 or 5 start review. Or, if you read some of them, there are even people who have never BEEN to WDW giving it a review.

I don't know how much general ratings of WDW apply to FP+ FP- .... but I would think the response to their commercial was pretty informative.

It also IS possible to hate FP+ and still like ... even love ... wdw ....