*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[2Tiggies]

The actual % is irrelevant. Point is, you are standing in line. You did not used to. You used to ride a lot more, a lot faster. Now you are standing in lines that you cannot avoid, while person after person is waived ahead of you cuz they have Fast Passes that you used to get instead.

I feel the % is relevant. FP super users also rode standby. That was a key part of the strategy. I am not understanding why you are fobbing it off as irrelevant (?)

 

[coopersmom]

Do you not see they attended to Deluxe guests first, then Mods and Values, then APs, and now, last, day-passers? Do you see the progression of money spent there and why this makes sense?

While it would have made sense if they did it like that, both because deluxe guests are paying more (thus giving a reasoning for increased services) AND it's a smaller pool to begin with, but they didn't. They actually started public testing of the system at various value resorts, then went to moderates and deluxes in a mixed order.

 

[Angel Ariel]

Usage stats are showing most ppl are choosing to use it. Far more than FP-. If you disagree w this, then ask yourself why, again, ppl are going ahead of you as you stand in standby for POTC.

I didn't say that most people aren't choosing to use it. Choosing to use it ≠ liking it, or thinking it makes your park experience better. I'm sure I'm not the only one who doesn't want to be that scheduled on vacation, but will do so because I understand what the result will be if I don't.

You can pick on the bus ride to the park. You can pick at the hotel. You can pick on your phone while walking around the park. You can walk up to a ride, see it's got a long wait, and pick right then and there. There are so many ways to use FP+. This is what's making it so successful -- it can be used so easily.

You can only do those things if you stay onsite, at the moment.

Rides aren't running out. Unless you want the SDMT or A&E greet, you can get pretty much any other ride, day-of.

For now that is the case. Will that be the case if/when offsite guests get prebooking access? No one knows.

The point of my post (which apparently I didn't make very clear) was that there are casual visitors who did not extensively use FP- who also have issues with FP+. This notion that the only people who don't like FP+ are those who were FP- optimizers/commandos is flawed, IMO.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I already agree, the Kiosk ppl need a re-do, and I think that will come. Disney is clearly rolling out in phases. Do you not see they attended to Deluxe guests first, then Mods and Values, then APs, and now, last, day-passers? Do you see the progression of money spent there and why this makes sense?

IIRC, this is not actually how the roll out happened...at least not the entire roll out. Weren't values the first resorts to go to MB only, no KTTW offered (and therefore no access to legacy FP that was still available at the time). Pretty sure I heard people complaining about that in November/early December....

 

[FLchick415]

Pop was one of the first to go MB only, because I stayed there in December right after that was put into place.

 

[MrInfinity]

I didn't say that most people aren't choosing to use it. Choosing to use it ≠ liking it, or thinking it makes your park experience better. I'm sure I'm not the only one who doesn't want to be that scheduled on vacation, but will do so because I understand what the result will be if I don't.

I think for most ppl, a tool like a ride queuing system is not a "like Disney World or not like Disney World" factor. It's just a tool. It's like the tram that takes you to your car. You hate it, you hate waiting for it, you use it, you go have fun at Disney World. Don't want to use it? Fine go drop your family off at the gate, or take a bus, or whatever. But it's not a make-or-break thing. If picking Fast Passes in general is not of interest to you, you're no worse off.

You can only do those things if you stay onsite, at the moment.

AP users can do 30-day bookings now. No?

It's only non-AP offsiters that we're talking about here, and it's already been posited that their time will come. Unfortunately they were part of "stage 3". I feel for them. I do. Anyone "having to use the Kiosks" is currently very justified in not being happy w having to sacrifice rope-drop time to get in a kiosk line. But that will change.

For now that is the case. Will that be the case if/when offsite guests get prebooking access? No one knows.

Disney knows. They've already got the analysis thus far that shows the % taken for each ride, and how many guests this includes, and how many ridings of those rides there are, and they know exactly if the capacity is there. I'm gonna go w them on this one and say "they have the data, they got this".

 

[surferdave]

That's not the 80/20 law Davey Jones II was referring to...try this.

You have explained over and over again that the new system will meet more unique customers needs and therefore that is better for Disney. It kind of flies in the face of the Pareto Principle.

It is worth discussing.

Your turn, explain why Disney doesn't have to worry about basic business rules.

Yep. Many a naive business manager has looked at a distribution like this and thought "if I change this thing here I get as much out of the 80% as I do the 20%!" and started his whole apple cart tumbling.

 

[tomu570]

True but one can only do so much shopping. If these people stay in the parks and get shopped out then that only leaves the standby lines. Will the inexperienced park-goer use up their three FP+ and then head for the standby lines? I wonder.

Why does Disney assume we have more money to spend post Legacy FP? I know my budget will still be the same. I still can't afford certain sit down meals or that $60 golf shirt. Just because I'm being forced to tour differently doesn't mean I have more money to drop at the Emporium. My budget hasn't changed because of FP+. Maybe if Disney would stop raising ticket prices twice a year and charging $45 for a New York Strip steak I might have some extra coin to bring to the parks. But that's a whole other thread. Whew! I feel better now.

 

[Angel Ariel]

I think for most ppl, a tool like a ride queuing system is not a "like Disney World or not like Disney World" factor. It's just a tool. It's like the tram that takes you to your car. You hate it, you hate waiting for it, you use it, you go have fun at Disney World. Don't want to use it? Fine go drop your family off at the gate, or take a bus, or whatever. But it's not a make-or-break thing. If picking Fast Passes in general is not of interest to you, you're no worse off.

I will disagree with you here. I'll freely admit, my brother may just be a weird one (), but he had absolutely no desire to go to Disney World with his kids. He hates crowds, hates lines, and basically everything about theme parks in general. After learning about legacy FP, though, he was more willing to give it a shot. We took an extended family trip with them last year, and in large part due to FP, he had a fantastic time. So much so they were excited to go back in Nov 2014 - something he *never* would have considered before our trip last year (going a second time). The 2013 trip was supposed to be their "once in a lifetime" trip. They did not use FP in a commando manner at all, but it was a large part of the success of the trip for them. Now learning about FP+, he's less excited again. I think they'll end up going (not in 2014, that's been postponed for other reasons) because SIL now wants to run a RunDisney race, but they are both a LOT more hesitant about it than they were before. And they learned about FP+ from the Food Network special, not from me, so no one can claim I biased them

AP users can do 30-day bookings now. No?

It's only non-AP offsiters that we're talking about here, and it's already been posited that their time will come. Unfortunately they were part of "stage 3". I feel for them. I do. Anyone "having to use the Kiosks" is currently very justified in not being happy w having to sacrifice rope-drop time to get in a kiosk line. But that will change.

it's "only non-AP offsiters" - you speak as though that is a small number of people...

Disney knows. They've already got the analysis thus far that shows the % taken for each ride, and how many guests this includes, and how many ridings of those rides there are, and they know exactly if the capacity is there. I'm gonna go w them on this one and say "they have the data, they got this".

My point was that no one here, on the DIS, knows. People here can say there will be same-day availability even when everyone can prebook. That there will still be flexibility to change rides around the day-of, etc....but none of us here know that. You can have faith that'll be the case, absolutely...but no one here can say that that availability/flexibility will happen with 100% certainty.

 

[AndreaA]

The point of my post (which apparently I didn't make very clear) was that there are casual visitors who did not extensively use FP- who also have issues with FP+. This notion that the only people who don't like FP+ are those who were FP- optimizers/commandos is flawed, IMO.

Bingo.

I'm not sure how many times I have to say that my family did NOT use FPs and I am still annoyed with the new system. I HATE the fact that SB lines for non-headliners (the majority of our rides since we have young kids) are now going to be longer even early in the morning. Me making rope-drop and running through the rides quickly did NOT affect anyone else (we were not "hoarding" FPs, we were not "gaming" the system) and yet now people who didn't plan and research and properly organize themselves after spending THOUSANDS of dollars are now going to be affecting MY family's experience. I don't care if that means some poor person finally gets to ride TSMM for the first time. Maybe they should have done some RESEARCH and made ropedrop instead of hoping for the best.

If I go to my local Six Flags at three in the afternoon, you can darn well bet I won't be walking on to any rides. I'm not sure why people think that WDW should make that possible.

I also really think that if Disney doesn't make some serious corrections to the system, they are going to see a big drop in return visitors. You know that "20%" didn't spring up from no where. Once upon a time, those 20%ers were first time visitors, and if more and more first time visitors become ONE TIME visitors thanks to a lousy experience, then that WILL affect Disney's bottom line.

 

[coopersmom]

I will disagree with you here. I'll freely admit, my brother may just be a weird one (), but he had absolutely no desire to go to Disney World with his kids. After learning about legacy FP, though, he was more willing to give it a shot. We took an extended family trip with them last year, and in large part due to FP, he had a fantastic time. So much so they were excited to go back in Nov 2014 - something he *never* would have considered before our trip last year (going a second time). They did not use FP in a commando manner at all, but it was a large part of the success of the trip for them. Now learning about FP+, he's less excited again.

That describes us. We visited Disney a couple times when I was a kid (literally, 2), and then I went on a school trip there and it was OK and I like the movies and I had a decent time but it wasn't some place that I felt I NEEDED to go back to, even as a kid. Then my husband (then-boyfriend) had a work-related event taking placing at Disney, invited me along and I went. Heck, I mostly just sat by the (off-site) pool while he worked. Tickets were, yikes, expensive and I wasn't so excited about Disney that I wanted to go no matter what, but we did plan two days together, after his work stuff ended, that we would go in the parks. Someone gave me a copy of the Unofficial Guide and I casually skimmed it, reading about touring plans and FastPasses, which were a new-ish thing then, poolside. But even without any real advance planning and just a hint of how the system worked and this visit is what sold me on Disney. FastPass made me a Disney World convert. Being able to enjoy all the things in the park I already liked AND not having to wait in ungodly, hour-long lines to do it? THAT is what truly made this a magical destination for our family.

Take that away and it's back to being a lot less so. I've said it before, but we've had three trips in the past four years and I'm a current long-distance AP holder that initially thought we'd go on two trips to make that worthwhile but at this point, I'd rather take a loss on the ticket (will have only used it for 7 days in a year) than plan another Disney trip with the system as reported.

 

[flicx]

So from what I have gathered the fast pass plus equals more wait time for rides overall. What a glorious way to drop a billion and a half dollars. More money spent by Disney means less for their customers.

 

[MrInfinity]

fast pass plus equals more wait time for rides overall.

For some? Yes. Overall? No. The AVERAGE wait is the same. Which is the whole point of this thread. The average wait across all guests is unchanged.

Take these two number sets:

A) 10, 10, 10, 40, 40, 40, 50, 60, 60, 60 Total 380, Average 38
B) 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 40, 40, 50, 50, 50 Total 380, Average 38

If those are wait times. And you are a park operator. And you can choose for every 10 guests to experience Set A or Set B. Which would you choose?

A) First 3 ppl averaged 10 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 50 min.
B) First 3 ppl averaged 30 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 41 min.

Set A involves 3 out of 10 people riding very quickly, but most people waiting a long time. This is akin to FP-

Set B involves everyone waiting more or less 30-50 minutes, for an average of the same 38 minutes. This is FP+

Now, imagine EVERY time those ppl go on a ride, the times are the same. As you can see, the first 3 ppl in Set A rock out on FP-, waiting 10 min PER RIDE. But the last 7 wait extreme times over and over.

If you were one of "the 3" who used FP-, FP+ sucks for you as your typical wait goes up from 10 min to 30 min. But if you were part of the majority 7 people, your average wait went down from 50 min to 41 min. Over the course of say 6 rides (picking 6 as 6 would be 6 FP- for a good FP- user and 0 for a non FP- user, or 3 FP+ and 3 via non-FP+ in the new system) that saves those 7 people about an hour per day!

(It costs the first 3 ppl a boatload per day - but, 7 are happier and 7 is more than 3).

The AVERAGE time waiting is the same. It is only who is doing the waiting that is different.

 

[bcrook]

For some? Yes. Overall? No. The AVERAGE wait is the same. Which is the whole point of this thread. The average wait across all guests is unchanged.

Take these two number sets:

A) 10, 10, 10, 40, 40, 40, 50, 60, 60, 60 Total 380, Average 38
B) 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 40, 40, 50, 50, 50 Total 380, Average 38

If those are wait times. And you are a park operator. And you can choose for every 10 guests to experience Set A or Set B. Which would you choose?

A) First 3 ppl averaged 10 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 50 min.
B) First 3 ppl averaged 30 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 41 min.

Set A involves 3 out of 10 people riding very quickly, but most people waiting a long time. This is akin to FP-

Set B involves everyone waiting more or less 30-50 minutes, for an average of the same 38 minutes. This is FP+

Now, imagine EVERY time those ppl go on a ride, the times are the same. As you can see, the first 3 ppl in Set A rock out on FP-, waiting 10 min PER RIDE. But the last 7 wait extreme times over and over.

If you were one of "the 3" who used FP-, FP+ sucks for you as your typical wait goes up from 10 min to 30 min. But if you were part of the majority 7 people, your average wait went down from 50 min to 41 min. Over the course of say 6 rides (picking 6 as 6 would be 6 FP- for a good FP- user and 0 for a non FP- user, or 3 FP+ and 3 via non-FP+ in the new system) that saves those 7 people about an hour per day!

(It costs the first 3 ppl a boatload per day - but, 7 are happier and 7 is more than 3).

The AVERAGE time waiting is the same. It is only who is doing the waiting that is different.

You keep posting this explanation. And there are other things to consider.

1. A higher percentage of people are riding rides.
2. On the secondary rides the rides never used complete capacity for a day, but people are being moved into those lines filling up the lines at a higher rate causing line wait times to go up.

3. This may mean the headliner waits drop some but, probably not because if the wait time on a headliner drops below a certain threshold, more people will fill it up.

Josh's article is about secondary ride waits going up. They are doing that. Because many more people are being funneled that way. It really is simple.

The only way your math works and your example is if the exact same number of people are riding the secondary rides as before, and that cannot be true. Actually, Disney has said that they want to move more people into those lines. So, unless this FP thing is failing in that area too, there is no other conclusion... Fastpass is pushing more people into the rides like POTC, and those lines are now longer. It is exactly what Disney planned, and apparently it is working.

 

[WillAustin]

You keep posting this explanation. And there are other things to consider.

1. A higher percentage of people are riding rides.
2. On the secondary rides the rides never used complete capacity for a day, but people are being moved into those lines filling up the lines at a higher rate causing line wait times to go up.

3. This may mean the headliner waits drop some but, probably not because if the wait time on a headliner drops below a certain threshold, more people will fill it up.

Josh's article is about secondary ride waits going up. They are doing that. Because many more people are being funneled that way. It really is simple.

The only way your math works and your example is if the exact same number of people are riding the secondary rides as before, and that cannot be true. Actually, Disney has said that they want to move more people into those lines. So, unless this FP thing is failing in that area too, there is no other conclusion... Fastpass is pushing more people into the rides like POTC, and those lines are now longer. It is exactly what Disney planned, and apparently it is working.

The other issue with the math is that average waits aren't a constant. It's not a zero-sum situation where the waits are just shifted around, even though it may appear that way.

The dynamic of wait times changes every time someone decided to either get in line or not get in line. An assumption that all rides are at capacity and all lines are as full as they can be at any given time isn't a safe one to make.

 

[JimmyV]

For some? Yes. Overall? No. The AVERAGE wait is the same. Which is the whole point of this thread. The average wait across all guests is unchanged.

Take these two number sets:

A) 10, 10, 10, 40, 40, 40, 50, 60, 60, 60 Total 380, Average 38
B) 30, 30, 30, 30, 30, 40, 40, 50, 50, 50 Total 380, Average 38

If those are wait times. And you are a park operator. And you can choose for every 10 guests to experience Set A or Set B. Which would you choose?

A) First 3 ppl averaged 10 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 50 min.
B) First 3 ppl averaged 30 min. Last 7 ppl averaged 41 min.

Set A involves 3 out of 10 people riding very quickly, but most people waiting a long time. This is akin to FP-

Set B involves everyone waiting more or less 30-50 minutes, for an average of the same 38 minutes. This is FP+

Now, imagine EVERY time those ppl go on a ride, the times are the same. As you can see, the first 3 ppl in Set A rock out on FP-, waiting 10 min PER RIDE. But the last 7 wait extreme times over and over.

If you were one of "the 3" who used FP-, FP+ sucks for you as your typical wait goes up from 10 min to 30 min. But if you were part of the majority 7 people, your average wait went down from 50 min to 41 min. Over the course of say 6 rides (picking 6 as 6 would be 6 FP- for a good FP- user and 0 for a non FP- user, or 3 FP+ and 3 via non-FP+ in the new system) that saves those 7 people about an hour per day!

(It costs the first 3 ppl a boatload per day - but, 7 are happier and 7 is more than 3).

The AVERAGE time waiting is the same. It is only who is doing the waiting that is different.

An excellent analytic. Now, if we look at the wait times of headliners like Test Track and Soarin, and factor in Tiering such that whereas ALL people could have gotten FPs for both rides in the past, and now no one can get a FP for more than one, and we assume the following wait times "on the half hour", beginning at 9:30 and ending at 12:30 (because we will assume that from 12:30-closing, 2014=2013), you might get this:

2013: 20, 40, 80, 80=220 total minutes
2014: 50, 50, 60, 60=220 total minutes

Your analytic suggest that 2014 is better "on average". But if you ask the average guest, (not just the Dis Board member) which they would rather have knowing that they cannot have a FP for this ride, they would choose 2013 and plan on making the effort to beat the crowd and take advantage of the 20 minute wait at 9:30 or 40 minute wait at 10:30. They might goof and miss that window. But they would at least like to have the option of squeezing it in there with a little effort. The guy who wants to hang by the pool will choose 2014. But the person who plans to get to the park by 10:00 will choose 2013. We can make up percentages here, but I'd say that at least 60%-70% of guests assume that they will pass the turnstile each day by 10:00. I think that the one thing that you discount too heavily is Tiering. If I know that I have to ride a ride in the SB line, then I want the curve to be more bell-like and less flat so that I can seize on the opportunity to hit the flat part of the bell. I do not think that this is 1% logic or 20% logic. I think most people, given the option, would like to see a window of time that they can squeeze through. That window still exits at RD, but it closes more quickly now.

 

[flicx]

So if wait times are even the same what have we really have gained? IMO not much. I really think Disney has created a 1.5 billion dollar edsel here! At least from a customer stand point. Where have you gone Michael Eisner? Disney needs you back!

 

[2Tiggies]

So if wait times are even the same what have we really have gained?

This is the $1.5 billion question. We have gained a complicated system which requires unprecedented levels of planning and scheduling, working with an erratic and ill functioning online system that frankly is proving to be a whole lot of hassle for either little gain or significant loss (depending whether you are part of the 1% or the 99% )

 

[bcrook]

So if wait times are even the same what have we really have gained? IMO not much. I really think Disney has created a 1.5 billion dollar edsel here! At least from a customer stand point. Where have you gone Michael Eisner? Disney needs you back!

This is the $1.5 billion question. We have gained a complicated system which requires unprecedented levels of planning and scheduling, working with an erratic and ill functioning online system that frankly is proving to be a whole lot of hassle for either little gain or significant loss (depending whether you are part of the 1% or the 99% )

Apparently, you gain a lot if you wander into the park after 3:00 pm and only want to ride three rides and enjoy a parade and fireworks. That is where the big payoff lies. Disney is encouraging us to spend a lot of half days in the parks.

 

[WillAustin]

Apparently, you gain a lot if you wander into the park after 3:00 pm and only want to ride three rides and enjoy a parade and fireworks. That is where the big payoff lies. Disney is encouraging us to spend a lot of half days in the parks.

I guess that frees up capacity. Much easier than building a ton of new attractions.