*** Updated to add spring break Data*** New Data, FP+ impacting wait times, discuss

[Shaden]

Bingo!

Plus the expanded FantasyLand at MK brought in add'l visitors and the South American contingent, which used to be mostly during summer months and tightly surrounding the winter holidays, now appears to be spreading out more and more. Plus an economy that's coming back, a renewed real estate boom in the Orlando area (add'l resident visitors?), more rooms (GF DVC), etc.

One can't just say the lines are longer due to FP- or any other single factor.

Josh has already been on here to state, attendance is up 1.5%, and that does not in any way account for the differences in lines.

Also, it went from 15 - 30 minutes, the wait doubled.

 

[Mad Hattered]

From the link in the OP:

Dinosaur nearly doubled in its wait time
Safaris did double in its wait time
ITTBAB stayed the same
Kali stayed the same
TTS stayed the same
PW went up a bit
EE went up a bit

Soo...two of the headliner rides at AK went up about double in peak wait times. I do like the subjective dismissal of Dinosaur wait times from the link in the OP. After 4pm, the wait times for much of AK goes down. We've gone there the last two hours of opening and ridden EE several times in that timeframe (along with Dinosaur, PW, and TTS)

Now, for Epcot...Figment went up a bit. Maelstrom doubled but, guess what happened in Epcot the last couple of months?? It wasn't FP-...it was the Elsa and Anna meet and greet at Norway dumping TONS of people into a line to see them and, naturally, onto Maelstrom as people hold spots in line while others in their party go on the ride (or they ride it after meeting Elsa and Anna)

The rest of the list shows little to no change in the rides. Test Track's peak is down but that doesn't surprise me as the newness of the ride is starting to wear off. The first 65 days of 2013 were the 2nd and 3rd months of the new ride. Of course interest was higher then...it's begun to wane. Only natural.

Similar things have affected other major differences in ride times (BTMRR rehab...Little Mermaid newness wearing off, etc etc)

You are picking parks that have very few rides. This is also from the original post:

Magic Kingdom is perhaps the most interesting, where median and peak waits have actually gone down significantly at the headliners and up considerably at several of the secondary attractions, most notably it’s a small world, Haunted Mansion, Jungle Cruise, and Pirates of the Caribbean.

 

[JDUCKY]

Josh has already been on here to state, attendance is up 1.5%, and that does not in any way account for the differences in lines.

Also, it went from 15 - 30 minutes, the wait doubled.

See the post above yours.

 

[Shaden]

It's not just tour groups. It's a general trend in the demographics. I've been seeing more and more South Americans that aren't with tour groups. Like seeing Brits at DLP

Well, since you have absolutely no idea that they are having larger crowds.....

That made absolutely zero sense

That made perfect sense. You, like the PP you quoted, come here and claim that there are increased crowds, with ZERO evidence to back you up.

Except, like I said, Josh has already been around to tell us Crowds are up about 1.5% which can not account for any real increase in wait times ....

 

[JDUCKY]

You are picking parks that have very few rides. This is also from the original post:

Magic Kingdom is perhaps the most interesting, where median and peak waits have actually gone down significantly at the headliners and up considerably at several of the secondary attractions, most notably it’s a small world, Haunted Mansion, Jungle Cruise, and Pirates of the Caribbean.

It's hard to really see how the peak times are affected when we're just given a value and not all the data to see a trend.

But, take Jungle Cruise. The new Jingle Cruise ran into January 2014 and was VERY popular and likely the reason the peak time hit 70 mins in 2014 (not due to FP-...Jungle Cruise has had FP for years so it's not something newly added to the FP system)

 

[Angel Ariel]

I'd love to know the reasoning behind Great Movie Ride and the Backlot having 45 and 50 min waits (respectively) this afternoon around 3:30 (I was on MDE at that time, looking b/c of another thread). Star Tours was at 30 mins at that time.

We were at WDW at this exact time last year (March 11th-18th). We *never* saw waits that high for GMR or the Backlot. I don't recall seeing Star Tours have a line longer than 10 - 15 mins while we were there. Yet, the headliner waits at DHS were about the same as they were last year (no significant increase).

With no significant changes at DHS aside from FP+ and tiering, what is the non-FP related reasoning behind the increased wait times in those attractions, but *not* the headliners?

 

[Shaden]

See the post above yours.

It's hard to really see how the peak times are affected when we're just given a value and not all the data to see a trend.

But, take Jungle Cruise. The new Jingle Cruise ran into January 2014 and was VERY popular and likely the reason the peak time hit 70 mins in 2014 (not due to FP-...Jungle Cruise has had FP for years so it's not something newly added to the FP system)

How about I stick with Josh's analysis, who bothered to take the time to consider everything instead of cherry picking particular attractions and taking them out of context to try and support his illogical conclusions.

"Overall, FP+ is causing wait times to increase at most secondary attractions, while having a less substantial impact at the most popular attractions with the longest wait times."

Unless you want to actually pay attention to all the ride wait times, particular the median waits, and tell us what trend you see ?

 

[Davey Jones II]

I've been in line several times with people who don't even know what they are in line for. "Is this a ride, or what?"

Best answer: "No, it's a line."

 

[Davey Jones II]

How about I stick with Josh's analysis, who bothered to take the time to consider everything instead of cherry picking particular attractions and taking them out of context to try and support his illogical conclusions.

"Overall, FP+ is causing wait times to increase at most secondary attractions, while having a less substantial impact at the most popular attractions with the longest wait times."

Unless you want to actually pay attention to all the ride wait times, particular the median waits, and tell us what trend you see ?

FP+ gets introduced mere months ago, suddenly nearly everyone is using FP whereas before it was 50%, and since then we have seen bizarre distortions in the wait times which none of us ever experienced.

Despite all this, certain posters want to insist that this is all just a coincidence...

Yep, some people should be sending their C.V.s to Disney's P.R. Department immediately.

 

[JDUCKY]

How about I stick with Josh's analysis, who bothered to take the time to consider everything instead of cherry picking particular attractions and taking them out of context to try and support his illogical conclusions.

"Overall, FP+ is causing wait times to increase at most secondary attractions, while having a less substantial impact at the most popular attractions with the longest wait times."

Unless you want to actually pay attention to all the ride wait times, particular the median waits, and tell us what trend you see ?

How was a logical explanation of several of the differences a cherry-picking and taking them out of context?!

The data provided by easywdw doesn't show much of anything other than differences in times (easily attributable to various factors as I've shown). If they want to show the detail behind the data to show us the trends, when the peak times occurred (dates/times), then I might start thinking FP- has had the effects that site says it does.

Until then, I can only use logic and facts to explain a great number of the differences.

The trouble with the site linked to in the OP is that it started out with an assumption and made a page with a subjective summary that reached a pre-determined conclusion. It did so by excluding any other possible reason for ride time differences and hiding the detail behind the numbers.

 

[bcrook]

That's really what is so perplexing about all of this.

Everything about this FP+ seems to make less sense, as we see more revealed.

 

[Davey Jones II]

As I said recently in another thread...this is not a court of law. We don't need to prove something beyond a reasonable doubt. We can come to reasonable conclusions based on the evidence (and Josh's analysis is hardly the only evidence; there is a ton of empirical evidence that has been reported in other threads), and guess what? If we add one plus one, it probably equals two.

FP+ is a huge change, and replaces something that also impacted wait times in various ways. It is being used by almost all visitors. FP+ is a much bigger change than a paltry 1.5% increase in attendance, or anything else you can name in the past year. Thus, it is extremely logical and likely to assume that FP+ is the reason for the sudden and strange distortions we are observing. Arguing otherwise is just an exercise in defending Disney at all costs, when, in fact, almost certainly 1+1=2.

 

[bcrook]

As I said recently in another thread...this is not a court of law. We don't need to prove something beyond a reasonable doubt. We can come to reasonable conclusions based on the evidence (and Josh's analysis is hardly the only evidence; there is a ton of empirical evidence that has been reported in other threads), and guess what? If we add one plus one, it probably equals two.

FP+ is a huge change, and replaces something that also impacted wait times in various ways. It is being used by almost all visitors. FP+ is a much bigger change than a paltry 1.5% increase in attendance, or anything else you can name in the past year. Thus, it is extremely logical and likely to assume that FP+ is the reason for the sudden and strange distoritions we are observing. Arguing otherwise is just an exercise in defending Disney at all costs, when, in fact, almost certainly 1+1=2.

Yup!

And as MagicBob wrote earlier, it has been predicted by many based on the mathematical limitations. It all adds up.

What doesn't add up is... What was Disney thinking?

 

[Shaden]

Yup!

And as MagicBob wrote earlier, it has been predicted by many based on the mathematical limitations. It all adds up.

What doesn't add up is... What was Disney thinking?

Seriously, that last one is actually tough to answer.

 

[mom2rtk]

And as MagicBob wrote earlier, it has been predicted by many based on the mathematical limitations. It all adds up.

When you hear hoofbeats, think horses. Not zebras. Unless you are at AK of course.

 

[mom2rtk]

So it has just come to light that Anna and Elsa are moving to Fairytale Hall in the MK. It will be a huge boon for anyone who scores a FP. And a huge frustration for anyone who doesn't.

Does anyone else wonder if we will soon have tiered FPs for the MK, with the Mine Train and A/E in a "pick one" grouping?

 

[sieprincess]

So it has just come to light that Anna and Elsa are moving to Fairytale Hall in the MK. It will be a huge boon for anyone who scores a FP. And a huge frustration for anyone who doesn't. Does anyone else wonder if we will soon have tiered FPs for the MK, with the Mine Train and A/E in a "pick one" grouping?

Any word on when this is happening for Ana and Elsa?

 

[mom2rtk]

Any word on when this is happening for Ana and Elsa?

It's on the Disney calendar Easter Sunday 4/20 going forward. No FP slots loaded yet.

 

[*disgal*]

So it has just come to light that Anna and Elsa are moving to Fairytale Hall in the MK. It will be a huge boon for anyone who scores a FP. And a huge frustration for anyone who doesn't.

Does anyone else wonder if we will soon have tiered FPs for the MK, with the Mine Train and A/E in a "pick one" grouping?

you mean the meet and greet that is now in Norway?

And DON'T EVEN THINK ABOUT IT!!!

 

[LBIJim]

I've been in line several times with people who don't even know what they are in line for. "Is this a ride, or what?"

I occasionally play dumb and ask someone ahead of me in line that question, hoping to discover a clueless guest. Alas, everyone I've asked so far knew what the attraction was.

So it has just come to light that Anna and Elsa are moving to Fairytale Hall in the MK. It will be a huge boon for anyone who scores a FP. And a huge frustration for anyone who doesn't.

Does anyone else wonder if we will soon have tiered FPs for the MK, with the Mine Train and A/E in a "pick one" grouping?

I'm not surprised they moved the meet and greet location. Based on what I've read, it couldn't stay in the Norway pavilion much longer.

I don't want to speculate whether MK will go with tiered FPs. I did chuckle at a previous poster's suggestion that certain attractions will become signature, requiring 2 FPs. Maybe the Frozen girls would be one of those.