Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

[_Iowa_]

Can we not name the site we're talking about?

It's dvcresalemarket, right? They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.

Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.

 

[jlnten17]

Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward). It was first listed at 107, then 101. I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99. Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700. So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.
I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but who really knows.

We just agreed to a very similar offer 160 points at $98 because it had some 2019 banked points and full 2020. We are paying MF for 2020 and closing. One thing I noticed was some of the brokers charged an additional administrative fee of $150-$250 and this really negated contracts offered at a lower price per point because like you said we are only dealing with a few hundred dollars difference to begin with. I am adding on points because the 200 we have now has not been enough. I have no interest in a stripped contract. I think you got a great deal!

 

[WestCoastDVC]

Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.

agree with this - also found their listings to be generally lower / more reflective of market prices than some other sites. And the value estimate they have under the seller section seemed to give good results as well.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.

We used them for our contract and were also very happy with the speed and quality of service!

I've noticed that many sites have what appear to be high prices at the moment. But those that say "sale pending" don't disclose what the final agreed upon price was... only the initial listing price. Contracts are likely selling for less than the asking prices right now.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.

Their list prices on smaller (~100 point) AKV contracts is $15-$20 higher than Fidelity or *************. I was in no way commenting on their service or anything else, just that their pricing seems to be a bit higher on that particular property for some reason.

Note that a bunch of them are marked pending so it's obviously not a hurdle to some. Maybe they're closer to what market value really is? Hard to say without knowing final transaction prices.

 

[Lorana]

Their list prices on smaller (~100 point) AKV contracts is $15-$20 higher than Fidelity or *************. I was in no way commenting on their service or anything else, just that their pricing seems to be a bit higher on that particular property for some reason.

Note that a bunch of them are marked pending so it's obviously not a hurdle to some. Maybe they're closer to what market value really is? Hard to say without knowing final transaction prices.

Just a note that they don't display the selling price. So just because it's marked pending, doesn't mean it sold for the listing price.

 

[_Iowa_]

Just a note that they don't display the selling price. So just because it's marked pending, doesn't mean it sold for the listing price.

Yep. Ours are listed as sale pending both at ~$6-8 over what we paid.

 

[bookwormde]

7/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[Kickstart]

7/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

Any tracking of the current total open resale contracts?

I just had a agent tell me that sales are up and inventory is down, that it's turned back into a sellers market. I'm not seeing that in the last month I've been keeping an eye on resale listings, but I'm also only looking at one resort so maybe sales have been brisk on average?

 

[CastAStone]

Any tracking of the current total open resale contracts?

I just had a agent tell me that sales are up and inventory is down, that it's turned back into a sellers market. I'm not seeing that in the last month I've been keeping an eye on resale listings, but I'm also only looking at one resort so maybe sales have been brisk on average?

Total Listings are way down on www.dvcresalemarket.com since early April, by my tracking, and while they’ve come up some in the last 30 days they’re still far below normal (About 600 in early April, about 240 at the low point, about 300 now). I don’t have tracking for other sites back as far but total available listings seem to be increasing overall in the last 30 or so days.

 

[bookwormde]

7/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

 

[bookwormde]

Total Listings are way down on www.dvcresalemarket.com since early April, by my tracking, and while they’ve come up some in the last 30 days they’re still far below normal (About 600 in early April, about 240 at the low point, about 300 now). I don’t have tracking for other sites back as far but total available listings seem to be increasing overall in the last 30 or so days.

Yes they have listed lower numbers of new listings the last few days, TSS has been listing significantly more so those 2 have offset each other

 

[TinkB278]

Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket. 160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket. 160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.

Funny when there are 2 185 point contracts listed at $105/point.

 

[CastAStone]

Yes they have listed lower numbers of new listings the last few days, TSS has been listing significantly more so those 2 have offset each other

I think the question was around total active listings, not new listings. Do you track that?

 

[ldo]

also a new 160 AKV listed at TTS for $108 with Dec 2020 points.

 

[CastAStone]

Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket. 160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.

Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.

 

[TinkB278]

Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.

I’m just not sure about that as this has been the trend with dvcresalemarket even when they had a plethora of AKV 160 point contracts over the last couple of weeks.

 

[Prince John Robin Hood]

A few people have commented that every fall prices drop a bit as sellers want to avoid annual MF's. I would expect this year will be no different. Something that I expect will further motivate a lot of sellers this year is the ending of financial stimulus. Many countries have stopped or will be stopping their stimulus programs and upcoming MF's will be a concern for some.

 

[Starport Seven-Five]

Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.

Do you have data on all the resorts? My theory has been that listings were SSR/OKW heavy but I always like to check my hypothesis against data.