Originally posted by Horace Horsecollar
Half of 5-6 years would be 2.5-3 years. I can't see that 18 buildings with a totel of 828 rooms will sell out in just 3 years, even if the first 4 buildings are off to a strong start.
I wasn't implying that 18 buildings would sell out in 3 years--I was referring to the original design for 12 buildings, and using the reduced development time for this "Phase 3" as justification for adding more units.
If they sold 3 buildings in 9 1/2 months, almost entirely sight-unseen, there is little reason to believe that the pace won't continue. But Phase 3 will buy them another 18 months for the next property.
I expect to see the plans for Eagle Pines dusted off when SSR is down to 4 unsold buildings. I imagine there will be some minor adjustments to those plans, reflecting changes in technology and lessons learned from SSR.
Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm not commenting either way. But the naysayers have an awful lot of ammo given the way that EP keeps getting brushed aside. Three weeks ago people were posting here that DVC Guides claimed EP was next and ground prep work had already begun.
I've never seen anything more than the formal press release for EP. But if they look back on it now and decide that EP just doesn't suit the growing needs of the program, the development costs certainly wouldn't be the largest chunk of change that Disney has ever written-off.
If it is EP, the plans would have to be condusive to an extremely large-scale resort. I would be absolutely stunned if the next property were announced at any size under 800 rooms. While there is certainly room at SSR for this "Phase 3", it was clearly not even on the radar 6 months ago. But people are absolutely gobbling up the points.
EDIT: I guess my point here is this: SSR will still take another 2+ years to sell-out. And it was clearly designed to be a 12-unit resort. If EP is to be the next property, with only minor adjustments, why wouldn't they just have announced EP? Why the change of direction with this new development at SSR? Something just doesn't add up.
Don't you think that waiting for 4 unsold buildings at SSR to start a new property is a little late in the game? If memory serves, SSR was announced in September '02 and opened in May '04. That's over 18 months for a property that already had some infrastructure (utilities, common area buildings) in place.
EDIT: The EP press release was issued in Sept '01, and noted an estimated opening of Spring / Summer '04. So even DVC/DVD was figuring nearly 3 years to open this resort. Resort size is listed as 600 rooms.
Even if sales were to slow a bit (which is debatable), I'm thinking they would want to start working on a new property when they had 6-8 SSR buildings remaining. If DVC was a profitable venture at $40-60-80 per point, they've got to be absolutely salivating at the prospect of $95 and up. The last thing they want is to end up with no completed units to sell for months at a time, as was the case in the lull between BCV and SSR.
Interesting fact: BCV (142 rooms) was the fastest resort to sell-out at just 13 months. According to DVC, the first three buildings of SSR (138 rooms) were sold in just 9 1/2 months (8/9/03 to 5/27/04). Not bad for a property that many have labeled "less desirable" than others.
