Phase 3 a go for Saratoga Springs

[stacy6552]

That article doesn't indicate that this phase is in addition to the original plans. They were just laying the foundation for the third set of buildings last week, so Im still wondering if this phase 3 isnt just the third set of buildings going up.

And as for the pool, its hard to say. The thing seemed huge when it was just the 4 of us in it.

 

[Beca]

Originally posted by stacy6552
That article doesn't indicate that this phase is in addition to the original plans. They were just laying the foundation for the third set of buildings last week, so Im still wondering if this phase 3 isnt just the third set of buildings going up.

Here's a quote from the press release (as posted on another thread):

"The guest response to Disney's Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa has been so overwhelming, we have decided to add a third phase of development to the resort," Weiss said.

Another poster on that same thread wrote:

If I did the numbers correctly, this will be an additional 6 buildings over the original plans, for a total of 18 if each continues to have 46 units.

When I looked at the drawing that DVC sent me when I was considering a purchase, they only had 12 buildings in their drawing .

12 x 46 =552
18 x 46 =828

So, it does seem like an addition beyond what DVC was originally planning.



Beca

 

[FLYNZ4]

Originally posted by Beca
So, it does seem like an addition beyond what DVC was originally planning.

Or at least an increase of what they disclosed. It is hard to know what was in their plans.

/Jim

 

[Beca]

It would be VERY interesting to see a new drawing!! My bet is that DVC adds another cool pool, and maybe more food attractions!



Beca

 

[Sammie]

Originally posted by Beca
Here's a quote from the press release (as posted on another thread):

"The guest response to Disney's Saratoga Springs Resort & Spa has been so overwhelming, we have decided to add a third phase of development to the resort," Weiss said.

Another poster on that same thread wrote:

If I did the numbers correctly, this will be an additional 6 buildings over the original plans, for a total of 18 if each continues to have 46 units.

When I looked at the drawing that DVC sent me when I was considering a purchase, they only had 12 buildings in their drawing .

12 x 46 =552
18 x 46 =828

So, it does seem like an addition beyond what DVC was originally planning.



Beca

The map of the property on the Member Site shows the 12 buildings so I guess you are correct in that this would be a new addition over what has been shown.

 

[JimC]

Is this accurate?

OKW - opens 10/91 - 1st DVC resort. Large complex (527 units), built in phases. Flagship of the DVC program.

VB - opens 10/95 - Attempt to broaden beyond the WDW property, lack of sales scuttles about 2/3 of the original plans leaving 171 units. Some excess property sold, remainder underutilized (across A1A).

HH - opens 3/96 - Started before VB sales problems stop off site projects. Were the 102 units its original size?

Other off site properties (Southern CA, others?) sold or options abandoned.

BWV - opens 6/96 - 383 units sharing common facilities with the Boardwalk Inn. Were they built together, if not was the Inn first?

VWL - opens 11/00 - Separate but affiliated with WL and 136 units.

BCV - opens 7/02 - Seperate but affiliated with YC/BC resort complex and 142 units.

SSR - opens 5/04 - First DVC II property takes advantage of an underutilized DI property and established infrastructure. Large standalone resort with 552 units (before phase 3). Flagship of the DVC II. Phase 3 announced to expand further, possibly to exploit even more of the existing infrastructure (treehouse villas area?).

OKW and SSR both first, large, standalone and flagship resorts for their respective contract terms. OKW I suppose because they needed a certain scale when it was the sole DVC property for the concept to work. SSR I suppose because of the cost savings of the large DI infrastructure that was underused.

The remaining on-site DVC I resorts, as partners to existing WDW resorts are scaled to fit site requirements and probably limitations on the number of additional rooms that each WDW resort's existing infrastructure and common services can handle. They add flexibility to the system and additional themes to enjoy. All sell briskly.

Along the way they realize the economies of scale in using big box construction (first being BWV) as opposed to condo style of OKW, VB and HH. Also learned is that superior themes and attention to detail keeps the big box popular. Experience teaches them that they can reduce the unit size without hurting interest and have pretty much standardized each unit type's size since BWV.

I don't see how Phase 3 does anything but leverage existing investments and a program that works, is popular and very profitable. It appears that price and price increases are not a barrier, particularly with the new contract term. EP (golf theme?) and the rumored Contemporary projects should not be affected by Phase 3. Future projects will depend on site considerations and later the fifth park project that has been in the rumor mill as well.


Any urban planners or developers to check/correct my thinking?

 

[stacy6552]

Well if that's the case, then I think we should make some noise requiring more ammenities, like a "main" quailty pool rather than simply another quiet pool.

 

[jbwolffiv]

I agree, if it is going to become that big there should be another "theme" pool and not a quiet one. Maybe a restaurant as well to go along with The Artists Pallette.

 

[kweaver]

828 units is a bunch!

I completely agree with the idea of needing another themed pool (with a slide) and adding a sit down restaurant along with phase 3. An extra playground and BBQ area on the other side of the resort would be a good idea too.

 

[DaveH]

Another large pool theme or otherwise sounds about right. A sit down restaurant I question. Maybe a second food court or increasing size of current one. Plenty of resteraunts at DTD.

 

[VanHouten]

Originally posted by Doug7856
For those that have seen SSR in person: Will the pool support that large of a resort? From the pictures and the picture in VM, I thought that it will be tight when phase I and phase II are complete. Now that phase III has been announced, I am a bit concerned.

No, the pool isn't nearly large enough in my opinion to support all those extra rooms. It is about the size of the pool at the WL.

I can't imagine Artist Point or the bike rental place supporting all of the people in those buildings either.

I wonder where the buildings will go, will they be on the right as you drive in? Is there room over there that isn't golf course? If so, they will be too far from DTD for many to walk.

I think they would need another large pool and food service location when they add phase III.

I have to admit, I'm a little concerned myself. I though the place was large with the construction that is underway and I wondered if the pool would be adequate to support what is already underway. I expected phase I and II, but phase III has caught me by suprise. I'm looking forward to seeing what they do with phase III and if they do it right.

 

[pirateparrot]

I asked at the DVC Preview Center at SSR yesterday about where these additional units would be constructed. The representative there told me that they would be tearing down the fairway villias and replacing them with SSR buildings.

With these being right on the golf course, I wonder if DVC is thinking that this would be an alternative to the Eagle Pines project and provide a nice place for golfers. This is speculation but I could see them adding a restaurant that would cater to members and the golfing crowd.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Originally posted by pirateparrot
I asked at the DVC Preview Center at SSR yesterday about where these additional units would be constructed. The representative there told me that they would be tearing down the fairway villias and replacing them with SSR buildings.

That makes good sense. I found a map of the old Villas at Disney Institute at http://www.mouseplanet.com/dtp/maps/wdw_resorts/VDI_map.htm

The green boxes in the center are the SSR check-in, lobby, spa, restaurant, and DVC sales center.
The first four SSR buildings have replaced the old villas in the lower right, facing the lagoon. The next buildings will be around Willow Lake. And the six newly announced phase 3 buildings will be in the areas that are labled Fairway Villas and Grand Vista Homes.

Originally posted by pirateparrot
With these being right on the golf course, I wonder if DVC is thinking that this would be an alternative to the Eagle Pines project and provide a nice place for golfers. This is speculation but I could see them adding a restaurant that would cater to members and the golfing crowd.

The phase 3 buildings will be right on the golf course -- in the same way that OKW is right on the golf course.

Phase 3 is an alternative to Eagle Pines only in that it postpones the need to build at Eagle Pines for another two years, compared to when contruction would have needed to begin if SSR stopped at 2 phases.

 

[VanHouten]

Originally posted by pirateparrot
I asked at the DVC Preview Center at SSR yesterday about where these additional units would be constructed. The representative there told me that they would be tearing down the fairway villias and replacing them with SSR buildings.

Those buildings would be very far from DTD and a sitdown meal. I think they really would need to add a full or cafeteria style restaurant somewhere on site.

They would then have three separate locations. Phase 1 is the DTD accessible water views. Phase II is close to the pool (and some close to the road) and PHase III would be the golf view.

I don't think I have any problems with this setup provided they add adequate recreation/dining options.

 

[BigDisneyKids]

Could it be that it's no longer cost effective to "create" a new resort like Eagle Pines? What I mean is all the themes, design, infrastructure, building a resort from scratch etc...

It seems easier to just keep adding on to a proven product, especially if the real estate is close by and available and sales continue to be a success.

Another thing to consider is all the revenue coming in to DVC from new purchases (like myself). Look at it this way, there is A LOT OF MONEY being forked down for this luxury as of the late. And if all indications are correct, people aren't even blinking an eye at the $95 per point price.

Does anyone have a general idea on the proposed size of Eagle Pines? Could it be similar in size to the phase 3 of Saratoga Springs?

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by BigDisneyKids
Could it be that it's no longer cost effective to "create" a new resort like Eagle Pines? What I mean is all the themes, design, infrastructure, building a resort from scratch etc...

It seems easier to just keep adding on to a proven product, especially if the real estate is close by and available and sales continue to be a success.

Another thing to consider is all the revenue coming in to DVC from new purchases (like myself). Look at it this way, there is A LOT OF MONEY being forked down for this luxury as of the late. And if all indications are correct, people aren't even blinking an eye at the $95 per point price.

Does anyone have a general idea on the proposed size of Eagle Pines? Could it be similar in size to the phase 3 of Saratoga Springs?

Purely speculation, but I think there are two main factors behind this decision:

1. Timing - Phase 1 of SSR should be completely sold out by August / September. That means that DVC will AGAIN be in a position where they have no readily-accessible points to sell for about 3-4 months. That's after going about 9 months with nothing to sell (roughly Sept '03 to May '04).

This is definitely an undesirable position to be in. Someone buying SSR cannot schedule a stay until their building is open. Occupancy issues notwithstanding, I have to believe they are losing out on SOME sales from people who are considering DVC, want to visit WDW in November / December, yet would not be able to book a stay until at least 2005 because they end up buying into building #5 (or 6!)

2. Scope - Even the most agressive estimates had SSR on the market for 5-6 years. It's now looking to be HALF of that.

Clearly there is demand for DVC, and they really need to re-think the size of resorts they build. No more 120 room add-ons. The next property needs to be massive in scale and amenities. It may be Eagle Pines. It may be a redesigned EP. It may be an entirely new resort design built on the EP site. Or none of the above may apply.

I think it's a little early to label SSR a "proven product"--rather it's more a case of DVC being a proven product. Only a fraction of SSR owners have even seen the resort first-hand, and THOUSANDS purchased sight-unseen.

IMO, the decision to add-on to SSR is driven mostly by need (quick turnaround for additional accommodations) and the accessibility of undeveloped land.

 

[JimC]

Another option is redevelopment of the treehouse villas area of the old DI. That could be developmed into a Phase IV of SSR.

 

[Horace Horsecollar]

Originally posted by tjkraz
2. Scope - Even the most agressive estimates had SSR on the market for 5-6 years. It's now looking to be HALF of that.

Half of 5-6 years would be 2.5-3 years. I can't see that 18 buildings with a totel of 828 rooms will sell out in just 3 years, even if the first 4 buildings are off to a strong start.

Originally posted by tjkraz
Clearly there is demand for DVC, and they really need to re-think the size of resorts they build. No more 120 room add-ons. The next property needs to be massive in scale and amenities. It may be Eagle Pines. It may be a redesigned EP. It may be an entirely new resort design built on the EP site. Or none of the above may apply.

I expect to see the plans for Eagle Pines dusted off when SSR is down to 4 unsold buildings. I imagine there will be some minor adjustments to those plans, reflecting changes in technology and lessons learned from SSR.

 

[tjkraz]

Originally posted by Horace Horsecollar
Half of 5-6 years would be 2.5-3 years. I can't see that 18 buildings with a totel of 828 rooms will sell out in just 3 years, even if the first 4 buildings are off to a strong start.

I wasn't implying that 18 buildings would sell out in 3 years--I was referring to the original design for 12 buildings, and using the reduced development time for this "Phase 3" as justification for adding more units.

If they sold 3 buildings in 9 1/2 months, almost entirely sight-unseen, there is little reason to believe that the pace won't continue. But Phase 3 will buy them another 18 months for the next property.

I expect to see the plans for Eagle Pines dusted off when SSR is down to 4 unsold buildings. I imagine there will be some minor adjustments to those plans, reflecting changes in technology and lessons learned from SSR.

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm not commenting either way. But the naysayers have an awful lot of ammo given the way that EP keeps getting brushed aside. Three weeks ago people were posting here that DVC Guides claimed EP was next and ground prep work had already begun.

I've never seen anything more than the formal press release for EP. But if they look back on it now and decide that EP just doesn't suit the growing needs of the program, the development costs certainly wouldn't be the largest chunk of change that Disney has ever written-off.

If it is EP, the plans would have to be condusive to an extremely large-scale resort. I would be absolutely stunned if the next property were announced at any size under 800 rooms. While there is certainly room at SSR for this "Phase 3", it was clearly not even on the radar 6 months ago. But people are absolutely gobbling up the points.

EDIT: I guess my point here is this: SSR will still take another 2+ years to sell-out. And it was clearly designed to be a 12-unit resort. If EP is to be the next property, with only minor adjustments, why wouldn't they just have announced EP? Why the change of direction with this new development at SSR? Something just doesn't add up.

Don't you think that waiting for 4 unsold buildings at SSR to start a new property is a little late in the game? If memory serves, SSR was announced in September '02 and opened in May '04. That's over 18 months for a property that already had some infrastructure (utilities, common area buildings) in place.

EDIT: The EP press release was issued in Sept '01, and noted an estimated opening of Spring / Summer '04. So even DVC/DVD was figuring nearly 3 years to open this resort. Resort size is listed as 600 rooms.

Even if sales were to slow a bit (which is debatable), I'm thinking they would want to start working on a new property when they had 6-8 SSR buildings remaining. If DVC was a profitable venture at $40-60-80 per point, they've got to be absolutely salivating at the prospect of $95 and up. The last thing they want is to end up with no completed units to sell for months at a time, as was the case in the lull between BCV and SSR.

Interesting fact: BCV (142 rooms) was the fastest resort to sell-out at just 13 months. According to DVC, the first three buildings of SSR (138 rooms) were sold in just 9 1/2 months (8/9/03 to 5/27/04). Not bad for a property that many have labeled "less desirable" than others.

 

[WorknFires]

I'm always facinated reading the speculations of what is to come. I guess I've never put that much thought into it. I'm just happy to turn up when things open. LOL

I'm one of the "thousands" that purchased SSR unseen. But 2 weekends ago, with family members jonesing for a little pixie dust, we made the 8 hour trek to mecca and was impressed by the construction that has already been accomplished. I'm not overly pleased with the "outer" appearance of the main facilities but the rooms are gorgeous! I'm well please with our purchase.

We already own @ OKW and try as we might, we just can't seem to want to go anywhere else but I can see SSR pulling us away from time to time.

My only complaint about SSR is the lack of a sit-down restaurant that isn't fast convenient food. I'm not interested in the choices at DTD (except for EofS but hey... it's quick & easy) One of our favorite past times is traveling to the other resorts to eat in grand style and why on earth wouldn't they WANT people to come for the food and end up buying into DVC?!

Oh well, just my 2 cents.... keep up the great debate. I love my family here on the disboards!

Cheryl