Direct Sales For October

[igrsod]

RIV is a lovely resort and I would love to buy there, but what has stopped me is the resale restrictions.

 

[tjkraz]

I just hope they are not miss calculating the demand, you know like they miss calculated the appeal of RIV.

Riviera outsold Grand Floridian by 6% over its first 12 months of sales, retailing at much higher prices. In December 2019 Riviera logged the best December sales in 8 years and January 2020 was the best single month in more than 10 years.

Grand Floridian was effectively sold out after 25 months, selling 2.41 million points from April 2013 until May 2015.

Riviera has now been selling for 27 months--April 2019 to October 2021, less 3 month shutdown--and has sold 2.40 million points. With 16 of those months obviously influenced by a global pandemic (no international travel, Canadian border closed, Disneyland and Aulani shut down much longer, etc)

 

[Sandisw]

If we use 65K as the average monthly sales amount, it will take 66 months to sell out RIV. Well DVC needs to continue to grow and needs cash flow if for no other reason to plan there next resort. So now the selling of GFV II makes total sense. Disney is counting on these points selling fast. I just hope they are not miss calculating the demand, you know like they miss calculated the appeal of RIV.

Since sales overall are depressed, attendance for August/September and even in October is not yet its normal level, you have to consider that as part of the reason. Yes, RIV has its issues for current owners, but new buyers are still choosing that over other options.

Unfortunately, the pandemic hit and there will never be a way to know how much that impacted RIV. No other resort had to deal with that. VGF sales will be the true test IMO. If those sales are much stronger than RIV, then you know the resort itself is playing a larger role in why its not reaching the normal 70 to 75% of overall sales like most of the others did. But, prior to March 2020, it really was doing well.

 

[DonMacGregor]

My husband was just at Disneyland less than 2 weeks ago. None of the kiosks were staffed. He was wanting to talk to someone about direct while he was there. I was really surprised because we have always seen those kiosks staffed in the past.

Yup, just a single Guide in the GCV center. No one else anywhere on property.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think Tim (and others) have a point here.

October being soft is not surprising. It's historically in the bottom 1/3, well below average, even in The Before Times.
https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...27-direct-sales-unspectacular-in-october-2019
Add in \waves-at-all-of-this and it is not immediately obvious to me that DVD is unhappy. In fact, it looks like they are doing okay all things considered.

Unfortunately, the pandemic hit and there will never be a way to know how much that impacted RIV.

No other DVC resort experienced this...but plenty of other timeshares have.

As a comparison, Wyndham Vacation Ownership (Wyndham, WorldMark, and Shell) had gross sales of $663M in 3Q2019, vs. $440M in 3Q2021, or a drop of about 1/3. DVC's total sales volume in October 2019 was just shy of 149K points. An October 2021 total of just shy of 100K is....a drop of about 1/3.

Add the fact that, for Disney we are comparing points not dollars, and it is likely that the cost per point is higher in 2021 than it was in 2019, and DVD is doing just fine.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Riviera outsold Grand Floridian by 6% over its first 12 months of sales, retailing at much higher prices. In December 2019 Riviera logged the best December sales in 8 years and January 2020 was the best single month in more than 10 years.

Grand Floridian was effectively sold out after 25 months, selling 2.41 million points from April 2013 until May 2015.

Riviera has now been selling for 27 months--April 2019 to October 2021, less 3 month shutdown--and has sold 2.40 million points. With 16 of those months obviously influenced by a global pandemic (no international travel, Canadian border closed, Disneyland and Aulani shut down much longer, etc)

Arguing over the success of RIV does no one any good. There are those like myself who believe that Disney is terribly disappointed in the sale results. Then there are others who believe sales are just fine. The only thing I pointed out in my earlier post is that from this point foreward it would take 66 months to sell out- or approx 84 months from when it was first offered. Aside from Aluni, there is no other resort will have taken that long. Even SSR took 5 years and that resort has over 13 million points (not counting the treehouses that were added several years later and caused the resort to be an active sale). Yes, I am fully aware of COVID issues. But blaming everything on Covid is turning a blind eye to some of the negative issues which I do not want to get into as they have been rehashed numerous times. As I have mentioned many times before, this is a beautiful resort and I really hope sales become more robust. Just call me skeptical.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Arguing over the success of RIV does no one any good. There are those like myself who believe that Disney is terribly disappointed in the sale results. Then there are others who believe sales are just fine. The only thing I pointed out in my earlier post is that from this point foreward it would take 66 months to sell out- or approx 84 months from when it was first offered. Aside from Aluni, there is no other resort will have taken that long. Even SSR took 5 years and that resort has over 13 million points (not counting the treehouses that were added several years later and caused the resort to be an active sale). Yes, I am fully aware of COVID issues. But blaming everything on Covid is turning a blind eye to some of the negative issues which I do not want to get into as they have been rehashed numerous times. As I have mentioned many times before, this is a beautiful resort and I really hope sales become more robust. Just call me skeptical.

I too am skeptical, but I also think the sale of Riviera is doing just fine. I think Disney understands that Riviera is the next generational DVC product, and it's going to take the next generational consumer to eventually buy up all the contracts. Those who are used to the legacy DVC model will never accept the resale restrictions, the high points chart, and diminished perks. I too think it will take Disney 5-10 years to sell out. But eventually, there will be enough new and younger generation of Disney loving families that buy into this beautiful resort. My only hope is that as it nears selling out, I don't haveto own there to book there at 7 months.

 

[Brian Noble]

The only thing I pointed out in my earlier post is that from this point foreward it would take 66 months to sell out

Except that you made that claim conditional on:

If we use [a smidge over October's sales total] as the average monthly sales amount

That's almost certainly not going to happen because October is in the bottom third of months even in normal times for DVC sales, and this is not a normal time for any timeshare developer.

But, you are right about one thing:

Arguing over the success of RIV does no one any good.

though we both seem to be doing it.

 

[RoseGold]

Arguing over the success of RIV does no one any good.

We can all agree about Aulani's failure on the other thread and argue about whether it should be sold.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

We can all agree about Aulani's failure on the other thread and argue about whether it should be sold.

lol - I don't think I'd call it a failure per se. They never even try and still it! If they were really promoting it and it did this then I'd agree but in the decade since it was built they've hardly even tried it seems.

 

[davidl81]

I too am skeptical, but I also think the sale of Riviera is doing just fine. I think Disney understands that Riviera is the next generational DVC product, and it's going to take the next generational consumer to eventually buy up all the contracts. Those who are used to the legacy DVC model will never accept the resale restrictions, the high points chart, and diminished perks. I too think it will take Disney 5-10 years to sell out. But eventually, there will be enough new and younger generation of Disney loving families that buy into this beautiful resort. My only hope is that as it nears selling out, I don't haveto own there to book there at 7 months.

RIV was aimed to be just the next in the line of DVC resorts. Nothing next generational about it. The reality is that it has a less optimal location than the most recent “new” resorts (BLT,VGF,Poly,Maybe CCV although CCV was far smaller), and it has the highest $ per point requirement and almost the highest point chart. It’s a perfectly fine resort, but nothing about it makes anyone just scream “this is the DVC resort I’ve always been waiting for!”.
VGF2 will tell a lot. If priced close to RIV I assume that it will outsell RIV 2:1 or maybe more.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

We can all agree about Aulani's failure on the other thread and argue about whether it should be sold.

Aulani is a paradox. In terms of its imagineering and authenticity, I think most agree that it’s an unequivocal success. On the sales side however, it’s definitely been a failure. It is a little strange that this resort is generally beloved by most everyone in this community. And yet, no one wants to actually own it.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Aulani is a paradox. In terms of its imagineering and authenticity, I think most agree that it’s an unequivocal success. On the sales side however, it’s definitely been a failure. It is a little strange that this resort is generally beloved by most everyone in this community. And yet, no one wants to actually own it.

It’s so true. Lol.

 

[AvidDisReader]

Except that you made that claim conditional on:

That's almost certainly not going to happen because October is in the bottom third of months even in normal times for DVC sales, and this is not a normal time for any timeshare developer.

But, you are right about one thing:

though we both seem to be doing it.

So let's use facts, I went back and added all the points sold at RIV this year. It came to 695K points, over 10 months we have 69.5K average per month so far in 2021. The single best month for 2021 is 91.9K, good but in almost any other year the main Resort being sold would have one or more months over 100K. So if we use the 2021 average sale the number of months to sell out is reduced from 66 to 62, and the total months from the beginning of RIV being offered goes from 84 to 80- which is still far greater than any resort but Aulani. Brian can we just agree to not agree on RIV appeal.

 

[Sandisw]

So let's use facts, I went back and added all the points sold at RIV this year. It came to 695K points, over 10 months we have 69.5K average per month so far in 2021. The single best month for 2021 is 91.9K, good but in almost any other year the main Resort being sold would have one or more months over 100K. So if we use the 2021 average sale the number of months to sell out is reduced from 66 to 62, and the total months from the beginning of RIV being offered goes from 84 to 80- which is still far greater than any resort but Aulani. Brian can we just agree to not agree on RIV appeal.

Except you are not using any of the sales figures from 2019 or 2020, yet counting those months in how long it takes to sell. Or am I misreading?

Sure, DVC sales are flat and RIV is not as high right now. But DVD is far from disappointed because we don’t see massive changes in the pricing and incentives. I

So, what is the actual average of sales from the start, minus the 3 months they were shut down? And what is that timeline considering all that?

I do agree that if VGF is priced similar and it goes quickly, then it will be something DVD has to deal with.

New buyers are still chosing it over the other resorts when going direct. Resale is holding its own for a restricted resort. But we do know that many current owners, regardless of how they like the resort, won’t buy for restrictions so there is a depressed market for it.

As already points out, it has sold roughly the same number of points in 27 months that VGF did in 25. So, pretty good given it is different.

Again, we all have our favorites but not sure sales will ever be good enough for some.

 

[tjkraz]

Arguing over the success of RIV does no one any good. There are those like myself who believe that Disney is terribly disappointed in the sale results. Then there are others who believe sales are just fine.

It's not really an either / or situation. There's a lot of middle ground between "terribly disappointing" and "just fine", encompassing many factors which are out of DVC's control.

But one thing they can control is the incentives offered to buyers. Here's a quick summary of discounts on 200 Riviera points to a new member since the February price increase:

Feb - Apr 7: $22 discount
Apr 8 - May 12: $11 discount
May 13 - Aug 4: $15 discount
Aug 5 - Sept 8: $10 discount
Sept 9 - Nov 3: $11 discount
Nov 4 - Dec 14: $13 discount
Dec 15 - Mar 2, 2022: $8 discount

Unsurprisingly, March and April were 2 of the 3 best months this year. (April sales numbers would have included about 3 weeks worth of sales with the $22 per point discount.)

Aside from the short periods where DVC is offering "additional incentives" to goose sales, overall the discounts are declining / prices are rising. Does that sound like the actions of a company that is "terribly disappointed" in the numbers?

Yes, I am fully aware of COVID issues. But blaming everything on Covid is turning a blind eye to some of the negative issues which I do not want to get into as they have been rehashed numerous times.

Dismissing COVID and all associated issues (inflation, higher park prices, services still reduced, masks) while blaming everything on Riviera's so-called "negative issues" seems like it may lead to some flawed conclusions.

 

[perchy]

Aulani is a paradox. In terms of its imagineering and authenticity, I think most agree that it’s an unequivocal success. On the sales side however, it’s definitely been a failure. It is a little strange that this resort is generally beloved by most everyone in this community. And yet, no one wants to actually own it.

I live on the East Coast. I’ve had the fortune of visiting Hawaii twice in my 52 years. From the East Coast, that kind of trip is a once in a lifetime trip for many. Many also never visit Hawaii. I would love to visit Aulani. But to own there is not practical. From the East Coast, I can drive to Florida.Why would I buy in Hawaii and visit once? Or twice?

I have a hard time believing that buying there makes it easier to visit someplace so far away.

 

[Disneybuckeye]

No desire to own or stay at Riviera. We have ridden the skyline 3 times from Epcot to DHS and it had long stoppages each time. They are selling it as an Epcot resort but it is not.

We were going to buy 150 GF points in out kids names. Once they eliminated Magical Express that idea went out the window.

We will enjoy or BW points for the next 20 years and continue to vacation our other 4 weeks a year at other places. Disney made their decisions and we have made ours.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Riviera outsold Grand Floridian by 6% over its first 12 months of sales, retailing at much higher prices. In December 2019 Riviera logged the best December sales in 8 years and January 2020 was the best single month in more than 10 years.

Grand Floridian was effectively sold out after 25 months, selling 2.41 million points from April 2013 until May 2015.

Riviera has now been selling for 27 months--April 2019 to October 2021, less 3 month shutdown--and has sold 2.40 million points. With 16 of those months obviously influenced by a global pandemic (no international travel, Canadian border closed, Disneyland and Aulani shut down much longer, etc)

You are forgetting that was the time of incentives. Riviera with incentives was around 145 ish - as I almost purchased. I will not buy at 200 and regret not buying back then. Bottom line, it is overpriced at 200 - and 200 points is 40,000 that is a downpayment for a condo in orlando instead.

 

[tjkraz]

You are forgetting that was the time of incentives. Riviera with incentives was around 145 ish - as I almost purchased. I will not buy at 200 and regret not buying back then. Bottom line, it is overpriced at 200 - and 200 points is 40,000 that is a downpayment for a condo in orlando instead.

Day One pricing for 250 Riviera points was $166 for current members and $170 for new buyers. (At smaller volumes, it was higher.) Today price is $175 for members and $185 for newbies at same 250 level.

Grand Floridian started at $145 per point for any amount and rose to $165 while actively selling.

Comparing the two resorts at their debut, an add-on of 250 points at RIV was $21 more expensive than VGF. RIV was $25 more expensive for 175 points, $31 more expensive at 150 points and $39 more expensive at 125 points.

https://dvcnews.com/resorts/riviera...-pricing-revealed-for-disney-s-riviera-resort
Look, any comparison is bound to be somewhat flawed. Different base prices, different incentives, different marketing approaches, etc. But Riviera had historically good sales in its early months. It outperformed Grand Floridian, Polynesian, Copper Creek, etc. I really don't understand why people are twisting themselves in knots to brand the resort an unappealing failure due to declining sales in the midst of a global pandemic. I realize some people take issue with the point charts at Riviera, the resale restrictions and even the resort theme & location. But giving too much weight to those personal biases is going to lead to some flawed conclusions.