Cases rising or dropping by you?

I suppose it’s possible, but the chances of those numbers matching exactly is slim.

Not necessarily. We had a fluke with our testing where two positives were deemed to be false positives. The same day those two were removed we had two new cases added. So our numbers didn't change.
 
Not necessarily. We had a fluke with our testing where two positives were deemed to be false positives. The same day those two were removed we had two new cases added. So our numbers didn't change.
Which goes back to exactly what I’m saying. More context to numbers is needed before we rush to judgement on just a rise in cases!
 
Oh wow! That seems convoluted and way to really skew numbers. Do they break it down for you at all?

I live in Florida. I follow Nate Silver on twitter and he gives daily statistics and background information. I prefer to follow him rather than the news.
 
Which goes back to exactly what I’m saying. More context to numbers is needed before we rush to judgement on just a rise in cases!
I do understand what you are saying. For me it doesn't matter if they were test 2 days ago or 2 weeks ago. If there new cases there are new cases. Everyone has their own opinions and varying outlook on this topic. But just the same I do like reading others opinions, even when they differ from mine.
 

I live in Florida. I follow Nate Silver on twitter and he gives daily statistics and background information. I prefer to follow him rather than the news.
I wish I could find something like that here!

As it is, we couldn't even find out ages of our 4 deaths until about 3 weeks ago and even now we only know they were all over 65 with pre-existing conditions. We know two came from the Princess cruise ship, but we don't know anything about the other two. We don't know any breakdown of our hospitalizations except gender.

But the lack of information got so bad, our Sheriff said he would no longer enforce our SIP because he didn't feel the numbers warranted the restrictions. They've come an agreement since then, but it got ugly there for awhile.
 
I wish I could find something like that here!

As it is, we couldn't even find out ages of our 4 deaths until about 3 weeks ago and even now we only know they were all over 65 with pre-existing conditions. We know two came from the Princess cruise ship, but we don't know anything about the other two. We don't know any breakdown of our hospitalizations except gender.

But the lack of information got so bad, our Sheriff said he would no longer enforce our SIP because he didn't feel the numbers warranted the restrictions. They've come an agreement since then, but it got ugly there for awhile.

This is what I get from Florida. It gives me a daily breakdown by county for ER visits and cases.

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/action/report_archive/county/county_reports_latest.pdf
I highly recommend Nate Silver for National breakdowns. He’s the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, which is a sports statistics site. Since there are no sports, he’s been posting coronavirus statistics. He gives a pretty unbiased report around 5:30 pm eastern every day.
 
Having insurance isn't the same as having insurance that works for them. People losing their plans should be eligible for an ACA plan. But it doesn't mean it will actually cover anything for them.

Many people have been out of work for 3 months. People had carefully constructed lives they had worked very hard to put in place. In some cases they chose jobs that had insurance plans that worked for them. They invested their life savings into businesses. Many are on the verge of losing it all. Not everyone just picked up a computer and started working from home.

So how long do we do this? Another 3 months? Until we get a vaccine? We were asked to stay at home until we could flatten the curve and not overwhelm our hospitals. Hospitals have now had to lay off staff because of it.

I'm just saying it's easy to say "let's just keep this going" if your life is mostly unchanged. We know a lot more about this virus now than when this started. Nobody is asking to just throw caution to the wind. They want to find ways to safely get back to their livelihoods.

If you want to keep everything shut down, then for how long?

Where did I say I want to keep everything shut down? We're already opening up. What I want is for the people who are so worried about some people going 3 months without insurance to stop only worrying about the people they care about & support healthcare that does cover everyone's needs. If they're not willing to do that, they need to stop complaining about people going a few months without insurance. It's an incredibly hypocritical POV.

It's hard for me to believe that so many Americans don't realize how many jobs there are that don't provide insurance. It seems more likely that they don't care, but I'd like to give them the benefit of the doubt. It's impossible for everyone to get a job with a company that offers insurance. Someone has to fill the jobs with employers who exploit every loophole possible to prevent subsidizing healthcare for their employees. Those people deserve insurance too.
 
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How did Florida handle nursing homes? Was it the same way as the states in the Northeast where Governors required them all to accept back Covid positive patients?

Nope we have been praised with how we handled them. The worst ones were ones already run poorly. They aren’t sent back till negative.
 
I do understand what you are saying. For me it doesn't matter if they were test 2 days ago or 2 weeks ago. If there new cases there are new cases. Everyone has their own opinions and varying outlook on this topic. But just the same I do like reading others opinions, even when they differ from mine.
But there’s always going to be new cases. Covid 19 is here to stay, it’s not going anywhere. That’s why context matters. You have to look at the bigger picture or you’ll make yourself nuts worrying about every new case.
 
But there’s always going to be new cases. Covid 19 is here to stay, it’s not going anywhere. That’s why context matters. You have to look at the bigger picture or you’ll make yourself nuts worrying about every new case.

I guess for me that is why knowing WHEN the person was tested doesn't matter (to me). To me the big picture is total number of cases. The details are symptomatic, asymptomatic, surveillance testing, close contact testing, when someone was tested, % positives, etc.
 
I guess for me that is why knowing WHEN the person was tested doesn't matter (to me). To me the big picture is total number of cases. The details are symptomatic, asymptomatic, surveillance testing, close contact testing, when someone was tested, % positives, etc.
I think it matters because people see a “a big day” and think it’s spike when the overall trend is that it’s not. If for whatever reason tests don’t come through for a week and then suddenly they’re all dumped on one day it looks like things have gone through the roof but if we know when they were tested you can see how it’s spread out. We have give or take 100 cases a day in our state. Sometimes there’s 50, sometimes there’s 150 but the overall trend is 100. If I know those extra 50 are from the weekend and not only yesterday I know it’s not a spike, we’re holding steady and things are remaining “flat.”
 
I think it matters because people see a “a big day” and think it’s spike when the overall trend is that it’s not. If for whatever reason tests don’t come through for a week and then suddenly they’re all dumped on one day it looks like things have gone through the roof but if we know when they were tested you can see how it’s spread out. We have give or take 100 cases a day in our state. Sometimes there’s 50, sometimes there’s 150 but the overall trend is 100. If I know those extra 50 are from the weekend and not only yesterday I know it’s not a spike, we’re holding steady and things are remaining “flat.”
Yes, exactly this!
 
I think it matters because people see a “a big day” and think it’s spike when the overall trend is that it’s not. If for whatever reason tests don’t come through for a week and then suddenly they’re all dumped on one day it looks like things have gone through the roof but if we know when they were tested you can see how it’s spread out. We have give or take 100 cases a day in our state. Sometimes there’s 50, sometimes there’s 150 but the overall trend is 100. If I know those extra 50 are from the weekend and not only yesterday I know it’s not a spike, we’re holding steady and things are remaining “flat.”

What if that spike is beyond the upper bound of the prior 3-day moving average?
And there’s one variable to your explanation...People do not get tested at the exact same time since onset of infection.
 
But there’s always going to be new cases. Covid 19 is here to stay, it’s not going anywhere. That’s why context matters. You have to look at the bigger picture or you’ll make yourself nuts worrying about every new case.

What is this bigger picture you speak of?
 
As has been said multiple times, are hospitalizations and deaths going up. Is percentage positive going up? Are they mostly close contact household cases or community spread? Are they rising slowly or was there really a spike? Cases rising alone doesn’t really tell us anything.

Ah, got it. Those I understand as well.
Just sounded to me like he was talking about some overarching, grandiose larger picture idea.
 
My county of 161,300 as of 2019 was down to only 2 active cases and in the last week has seen that increase to 14. Now before anyone goes oh my that is a case to start shutting things down let's take a look at the numbers
14 total active cases
2 cases prior to June 1
12 cases reported between June 1 and June 6 as the previous days numbers are reported at 10 am local time statewide
1 case reported in a prisoner held at the county jail (which happens to hold those sentenced for shorter sentences from several smaller surrounding counties as well as those on pretrial holdings for violent crimes from those counties and those from the smaller counties sentenced for transport to the state prison due to a combination of lack of space and security at the smaller counties jail facilities) for a federal law enforcement agency not specified-person has since been moved by the federal law enforcement agency to their location.
11 cases remaining now
8 cases of inmates currently in the county jail
3 cases remaining
1 case of a jail employee (there were 2 previous employee cases in March with 0 spread to the jail population)
2 cases remaining that are unknown if connected to either the jail employee or the 2 that were active cases prior to June 1 or additional inmates in the jail.

The jail has issolated the 8 that are positive in a separate unit. Those who have symptoms (fever, cough, shortness of breath, ect but have not tested positive and were in the same unit as all the inmates who tested positive are issolated in a seperate unit, and those remaining in the unit where the 9 (8 jail inmates plus 1 hold) tested positive are being kept seperate from the general population. There is also a full time medical staff at the jail to monitor both the positive as well as symptomatic cases and a unit for each gender where incoming inmates are held for a period of observation of 2-5 days due to space before being moved to one of the units. Our county sherriff has indicated that no additional inmates will be placed in the unit where the cases occured until they know for certain that there are no additional cases in an effort to contain the spread. We have had a total case count in my county of 105 cases since since the first case reported in Montana on March 3 with a total of 3 of the 18 deaths 2 of which were those living on a part of a reservation in my county. The other was an elder person.

The other area of a large spread is a neighboring county which has a population of 13,388 as of 2018 with 70.57% of the county comprising land for two native american reservations. There is significant community spread in that county which currently has 24 active cases, 39 total cases and 1 death.

If you read this article about everything this remarkable young lady has had to overcome in her life to fullfill a dream you will learn a lot about how life is on the reservations and how quickly a disease can spread in that type of environment.
https://billingsgazette.com/news/st...l7l6i4Y2eqcTqVbXYjqi-yZteaViiDrVeJ-vavPaCd2ZM
while it is good that the community steps in to take care of children and youth when the parents are unable to due to their own problems and this care extends to others in the community as well in cases where there is illness it also means that the illness is being passed around from household to household at a higher rate than the general population.

While most of MT is on phase 2 of reopening this county has gone back to a combination of lockdown and phase 1 with resturants in the little over 29% of the county that is not reservation land on phase 1 to include only 25% capacity and no more than 6 at a table with all tables located 6 feet from each other and those on the reservations restricted to take out (delivery due to distance is very limited to the few blocks that make up a town so is not advertised) only no dining in-this was a decision made in the conjunction with the tribal governments of both tribes who requested the stricter standards in an attempt to stop or at least slow the community spread within their respective tribes. Per Montana Governor executive orders on reopening both counties and native american tribes can impose stricter guidelines than what is outlined in the state including tribes can maintain checkpoints along any and all highways that transpose their land to inquire abou the business of motorists going across their land and perform tempature checks. They can only let those who register a tempature greater than their set limit (not sure if it is 100.0 or 100.4) know where the closest testing facilites are located in their county or in neighboring counties. They can escort those driving from one side of the reservation to the other through as well as closing off any public recreation areas on or accessed through the reservation in order to stop travelers who are asymptomatic from bringing sickness into their community. Most of these recreation areas that are on or accessed through reservations are on county roads that have an indication of inquire locally before travel year round and the law enforcement of both the tribal and the counties that make up the reservations is limited. Even the small portion of a reservation that is in my county which being one of the highest populated counties has a significantly large sheriff dept and 2 of our "cities" having a seperate police force as well there is only 1-2 deputies patrolling the area at a time depending on the time of day. Additional help is 30-90 minutes away. The tribal law enforcement is spread even more thin with sometimes 1-2 officers covering over 3000 sq miles and they are limited to what they can do regarding law enforcement compared to other areas and at time are restricted to basically doing a citizens arrest situation until back up from the local county or state (highway patrol) law enforcement agency arrives.
 
Nope we have been praised with how we handled them. The worst ones were ones already run poorly. They aren’t sent back till negative.
Makes a lot of sense and seems to have made a critical difference. I wonder why this hadn’t gotten more notice.
 

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