Cases rising or dropping by you?

[DisneyJamieCA]

It looks like it's going back up in some states that "reopened".

https://www.azcentral.com/story/new...ld-fully-activate-emergency-plans/5321075002/

It’s interesting that they’re now going up so rapidly in states that never really truly shut down. I don’t have the answers, but it makes me wonder if they just really prolonged what many of the other states had already seen.

 

[Colleen27]

It’s interesting that they’re now going up so rapidly in states that never really truly shut down. I don’t have the answers, but it makes me wonder if they just really prolonged what many of the other states had already seen.

It will be interesting to see how much contact tracing is done and if particular transmission spots are identified. I keep looking at the numbers and thinking about that Chinese study showing the role of ventilation systems in indoor spread - the states that are reopening, by and large, had low rates during the mild weather of early spring (often despite weak or delayed stay-at-home orders) but are reopening just as air conditioning season kicks into high gear. It may be an interesting case study when all is said and done, especially when contrasted with how transmission rates in former hot spots have stabilized or fallen in northern states that have now moved into the time of year when people aren't cooped up indoors.

 

[ronandannette]

But there’s always going to be new cases. Covid 19 is here to stay, it’s not going anywhere. That’s why context matters. You have to look at the bigger picture or you’ll make yourself nuts worrying about every new case.

You are so right and today, in a completely unexpected turn of events, our Provincial Government has decided that the current levels of infection/hospitalizations/mortality are "acceptable", even if they persist into perpetuity. As of today there are 355 cases in our province, 44 people in hospital and 6 in ICU (out of a population of 4.4 million). Since March 15 we have had 149 deaths; almost 90% of being residents isolated inside long-term care facilities. Only 43 of the deaths have occurred since May 1 and 100% have been elderly persons in care facilities. During that same period there have been over 14,000 tests done on asymptomatic individuals and only 7 positive results, implying the risk of community spread via casual contact is very limited.

As of Friday, our State of Medical Emergency will be dropped along with practically all restrictions on activity. Private businesses will of course have the prerogative of requiring whatever measures they want on their premises but officially, there is nothing other than the recommendation that individuals maintain social distancing and hygiene "in their own best interest". We launched a very cautions "Phase 1" on May 29 and absolutely no one saw this coming.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/deena-hinshaw-covid-19-coronavirus-1.5603084

 

[HeatherC]

It looks like it's going to get worse.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/20...coronavirus-after-unsanctioned-prom/24517402/

Not a surprise.

 

[godisney14]

Yesterday Australia had its first day of no local transmissions! The only new cases were 2 returned travelers in hotel quarantine (everyone arriving from overseas now has to spend 14 days locked up in a hotel room). My state, after a bit of a rocky couple of weeks with a few clusters finally seems back on track and even had zero cases on both Saturday and yesterday. We will have to wait a couple of weeks to see if there are any new cases arising from the BLM protests on the weekend.

If I’m not mistaken, NZ and AU blocked ALL entry from from foreigners who aren’t permanent residents. Plus, they’re island countries isolated from others. This is just like shelter in place on a much larger scale. So, you guys have fared much better than the US. The US only stopped entry from the areas with hotspots. Eventually the borders will reopen and cases will rise again. But, at least the “restart” will allow for more effective contact tracing. Completely different scenario with what the US is in.

 

[godisney14]

It will be interesting to see how much contact tracing is done and if particular transmission spots are identified. I keep looking at the numbers and thinking about that Chinese study showing the role of ventilation systems in indoor spread - the states that are reopening, by and large, had low rates during the mild weather of early spring but are reopening just as air conditioning season kicks into high gear. It may be an interesting case study when all is said and done, especially when contrasted with how transmission rates in former hot spots have stabilized or fallen in northern states that have now moved into the time of year when people aren't cooped up indoors.

What’s interesting about Texas is that state orders supersede local orders, and Texas has no requirement for masks. Local counties and cities can put in a mask ordinance in place but cannot be enforced by any consequence.
Personal freedom has always been alive in TX.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

What’s interesting about Texas is that state orders supersede local orders,

In my state it was this too however you could have equal or stricter rules but not more lenient than the governor's. If I had to guess other states are probably like this too where the counties' ability to have looser restrictions were not allowed causing friction with the state. Our stay at home order was superseded by the state's stay at home (our county was enacted first) in terms of timing. But our stay at home order was much more specified at my county's level than at the state's level.

Local counties and cities can put in a mask ordinance in place but cannot be enforced by any consequence.

This may be the more unique aspect but it went through the courts so that may be why the judgement was handed down that way.

There was a city in my county that looked at mandating masks (it failed to pass) and it would have been considered an unclassified violation with not more than a $25 fine. My state doesn't mandate masks and technically control is in the counties' hands now, but even when it wasn't that mask requirement at the city level would have been allowed even though at the state level no such rule existed, unless it was put forth in the courts and a decision made otherwise.

 

[elphaba91]

If I’m not mistaken, NZ and AU blocked ALL entry from from foreigners who aren’t permanent residents. Plus, they’re island countries isolated from others. This is just like shelter in place on a much larger scale. So, you guys have fared much better than the US. The US only stopped entry from the areas with hotspots. Eventually the borders will reopen and cases will rise again. But, at least the “restart” will allow for more effective contact tracing. Completely different scenario with what the US is in.

We started off with the hotspot approach, but I think when the next countries on the list were going to be the States and the UK it was diplomatically easier to close the borders entirely (to everyone who isn't a citizen, permanent resident or a close relative of one). There is also a travel ban for us leaving the country (with some exemptions). The compulsory quarantine applies to everyone though, and I think that has been the biggest factor in our success. We have also had restrictions on non-essential activities (which are gradually easing), a lot of contact tracing and high testing rates which have prevented the cases we did have in the country from spreading too widely. So yes, being an island has been helpful, but Britain is also an island and I don't think the States can really claim that many of their cases came from people illegally crossing the border from Canada or Mexico, so clearly there is a lot more to it than just geography.

That being said, I don't think there are any plans to fully open our borders until there is a vaccine or something else to control the virus. Hopefully we will have a 'Trans-Tasman bubble' with New Zealand and then perhaps some other island countries like Fiji, Vanuatu, the Cook Islands, in the very near future. In the meantime we will have to be happy staying in our own country!

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

So yes, being an island has been helpful, but Britain is also an island and I don't think the States can really claim that many of their cases came from people illegally crossing the border from Canada or Mexico, so clearly there is a lot more to it than just geography.

The UK is very close to many countries. I haven't heard anyone discuss illegal crossings into the U.S with respects to this. We just didn't close borders as quickly and a good amount of our citizens traveled (plane and cruises) and they were not prohibited from entering the U.S they just may have had flight issues coming back to the U.S. The first known case in the state next to me was from a student who returned home from study abroad in Italy when their university suspended that program.

Yes it is more than geography but it is also true that isolation of NZ and AU allows for different approaches as well as size and population density.

 

[Darcy03231]

Our town has been holding steady at 0 active cases and 1-4 total cases for weeks now. I suspect that will be changing soon as we live in a tourist destination and things are starting to open up. Restaurants are slated to open with 100% capacity, but tables at least 6 feet apart on June 15th. DH and I have already decided that we're sticking to take-out for the summer.

 

[okeydokey]

Well it looks like FL may very well be hosting the RNC in Jacksonville. So FL is not concerned with numbers at all.

Seems strange that they are planning University classes to be mostly remote this fall after welcoming thousands of people to gather in enclosed spaces in August.

 

[billlaurie]

In my state, everything is going down, # of cases, % positive, # of hospitalizations, all while testing has increased. I thought there might be an uptick after the Memorial Day OC boardwalk images plastered all over the news but nothing so far. Still waiting to see what the protests might do but so far not a jump, despite MD's proximity to DC.

 

[tvguy]

Rising here. Family gatherings being blamed. Specifically where families who live in different households get together in one household.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243376046.html

 

[HeatherC]

Still declining here in Massachusetts. Today we had 267 cases with something like 60 of those probable cases.

 

[jlmarr]

Orange County CA: still trending up - hospitalizations (293) and patients in ICU (129) hit a new high for the county.

Thirteen deaths reported today - one of the worst days we've had - and hospitalizations (306) and ICU (146) reached new highs for OC.



Oh, and Disneyland will re-open on July 17th!

 

[godisney14]

Thirteen deaths reported today - one of the worst days we've had - and hospitalizations (306) and ICU (146) reached new highs for OC.

View attachment 500343

Oh, and Disneyland will re-open on July 17th!

The same county where anti-maskers outnumbered maskers 100:1 at a public hearing and where the health director just resigned because of excessive death threats.
But, hey, I guess it’s still a hoax to some.


And Texas, get your act together.
This isn’t some race to see which state can be the worst.

The top chart is of daily new cases. And for everyone that keeps on using the increased number of testing as hopeful justification, the bottom chart is of daily tests conducted in Texas.



If this is what is happening in the beginning of summer, imagine what Fall and Winter will be like.

 

[ronandannette]

Rising here. Family gatherings being blamed. Specifically where families who live in different households get together in one household.

https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243376046.html

Our State of Emergency ends on Friday and places of worship can open this weekend with no gathering-size restrictions. The results will be interesting.

 

[traces7]

I think our state in general is staying steady, but I'm concerned about Oshkosh, WI where my daughter lives. The cases have tripled since Memorial Day, mainly in the 20-29 age group. 2 of my daughters roommates and 1 of their boyfriends tested positive, luckily their symptoms were minor and they recovered quickly. My daughter came home right before that, so she stayed here for 2 weeks quarantining, she tested negative. She had to go back to Oshkosh for work, but I worry about her. It's all over up there right now. I think they're mainly getting it from the bars that just reopened. People here in Wisconsin are just acting like everything is back to normal. I'm still cautious and wear my mask and haven't been many places. I won't go inside a restaurant or bar for a while!
https://www.thenorthwestern.com/sto...ases-triple-3-weeks-officials-say/3161058001/

 

[jlmarr]

The same county where anti-maskers outnumbered maskers 100:1 at a public hearing and where the health director just resigned because of excessive death threats.
But, hey, I guess it’s still a hoax to some.

The county supervisor for my district says his emails in favor of masking are running 10:1, so maybe sanity will prevail.

 

[Searc]

I think our state in general is staying steady, but I'm concerned about Oshkosh, WI where my daughter lives. The cases have tripled since Memorial Day, mainly in the 20-29 age group. 2 of my daughters roommates and 1 of their boyfriends tested positive, luckily their symptoms were minor and they recovered quickly. My daughter came home right before that, so she stayed here for 2 weeks quarantining, she tested negative. She had to go back to Oshkosh for work, but I worry about her. It's all over up there right now. I think they're mainly getting it from the bars that just reopened. People here in Wisconsin are just acting like everything is back to normal. I'm still cautious and wear my mask and haven't been many places. I won't go inside a restaurant or bar for a while!
https://www.thenorthwestern.com/sto...ases-triple-3-weeks-officials-say/3161058001/

It's a combo of bars reopening and Memorial Day. The cluster in Oshkosh is an anomaly, but now those 100 people have infected who knows how many more.