Cases rising or dropping by you?

[JimMIA]

A lot of news media in Florida are harping on our new cases rising, which they have slightly if that is the only number you look at. But those politically-motivated assessments conveniently ignore a couple of very relevant facts:

1. We have roughly doubled our testing in the last 3 weeks, from a little over 100,000 per week to over 200,000 per week, and
2. Our positive test rate has been below 4% for the last 5 weeks. For context, our goal was <10%, so we're at less than half of our goal.

 

[HeatherC]

I feel like Charlie Baker in Mass and Andrew Cuomo in NY have been leading the charge against coronavirus, with Ned Lamont (CT) and Gavin Newsom (CA) in close support. Although I don't live there anymore, I am a Mass girl, born and bred, and am proud of my home state and their forward-thinking; even the Republican governors they elect (Baker, Weld, Romney) have been openminded thinkers, not stuck-in-a-rut party supporters. I love that Mass elects governors who represent and support the people, not the parties.

I feel the same way Leebee! The response from our state government has been calm and measured and based on scientific data. I so wish other states would have followed Governor Baker’s lead. I honestly think we would have seen cases across the country declining as a whole instead of on the upswing. I also think for a predominantly Democrat state, the Republican Governors have done a very good job through the years and have managed to work very successfully together with those of the opposing party. I feel very fortunate to live here.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

That's true, but geographic size does have to be taken into account when you are talking about restricting the movement of people. An outbreak in the Bay area has very little consequence for people who live 500 miles away in San Diego, for example. It's not like you are going to have huge numbers of people moving between the two, as you might in a smaller, more compact state where people travel across county lines frequently.

Right. I was also thinking where the population is concentrated at (or not) makes a difference too and make up of certain populations in the respects of movement. This is in respects to counties being able to make their own decisions rather than be at the directive of the state.

I would def. agree there's a point where realistically even that takes a backseat when your state is small enough. Just IMO there's a wide variety of states that don't necessarily have that issue (they may not be huge but not really small either) and have just different situations that are stark enough that a governor's orders may not make the most sense as opposed to allowing counties to make that decision. I've even seen where regional control by a governor doesn't quite work (where the area is broken up into regions) all the time. In those cases it might end up being better to be left to one's "in the field" if you will meaning those who are living in such area...after a certain point at least.

We're not in disagreement at all though at the general principle

 

[Pyotr]

A lot of news media in Florida are harping on our new cases rising, which they have slightly if that is the only number you look at. But those politically-motivated assessments conveniently ignore a couple of very relevant facts:

1. We have roughly doubled our testing in the last 3 weeks, from a little over 100,000 per week to over 200,000 per week, and
2. Our positive test rate has been below 4% for the last 5 weeks. For context, our goal was <10%, so we're at less than half of our goal.

We had a couple of days this past week of massive test dumps from private labs. Yesterday Sarasota reported like 2k tests with only 8 positive. They’re testing every person who has an elective surgery at Sarasota Memorial Hospital. I was talking with a couple nurses in my neighborhood and SMH is down to 9 Covid-19 cases currently admitted.

 

[RamblingMad]

They're continuing to go to the moon by me.

 

[Pyotr]

I live in Manatee county my home has more in common with our southern neighbor Sarasota.

6/6 Sarasota 2,182 negative 12 positive. .5% positive rate. Manatee 1,286 negative, 13 positive. 1% positive rate.

Not too bad.

 

[disneychrista]

We only get results Monday, Wednesday & Friday.

After a couple weeks of seeing increases each day, Friday's report showed zero new positives and no change to hospitalizations.

After having NO reports of positive test from surveillance testing Wednesdays report showed all new positives from surveillance testing.

I am crossing my fingers that we don't see new spikes from Memorial Day, which might just start showing up and/or the protests we had.

 

[RangerPooh]

Yesterday’s new case count for my county was over 300! No that’s not a typo. No that’s not for the state. Our county! This is why we limit going out to run errands and always wear masks.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Yesterday’s new case count for my county was over 300! No that’s not a typo. No that’s not for the state. Our county! This is why we limit going out to run errands and always wear masks.

Do you mind sharing where you're from? State is fine if you don't want to get more specific.

I really wish across the board we could get more context with numbers.These could very well be new cases. They could also be a back log in testing, which I've been reading is more common than I think we've been led to believe. FL & Washington DC specifically have warned about it.

 

[disneychrista]

I really wish across the board we could get more context with numbers.These could very well be new cases. They could also be a back log in testing

If the cases haven't been previously reported doesn't that make them "new" cases? The actually tests may have been from a week ago, true, but it would still be an increase in cases.

 

[EveDallas]

Ah, so people who didn't lose income or health insurance are back to berating those who did and need their businesses opened up so they can earn those things for their families. And trying to claim a moral high ground. Lovely.

Yep. We're right back to "people are willing to let others die for $$$$$". Mostly from those who have been making money all along.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

If the cases haven't been previously reported doesn't that make them "new" cases? The actually tests may have been from a week ago, true, but it would still be an increase in cases.

Yes, but there needs to be context to them. I've mentioned before, my county reported 15 new cases one day last week, which showed an increase of 3% in new cases. Statistically correct. But when you broke it down, ALL 15 cases went into recovered, not active, which almost exclusively points to a testing back long. Yes, they existed, but were no longer a threat. Anybody who just looks at the brief summary would have probably freaked out, when it wasn't necessarily warranted.

Also, if these people didn't all test on the same day, then it's really not 300 new ones in a day. It's 300 new ones, but spread out would look differently.

I am not saying either of these is the case here. I don't know. I do know context matters thought and that people tend to only look at the baseline numbers and don't delve any further into what they actually mean. The same goes for people only looking at total cases and not percentage positives. It's the same idea.

 

[EveDallas]

Texas has been reporting spikes the last few days. More testing or did they open too soon? Or something else? It's hard to quantify.

More positives in Dallas County yes, but hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and emergency room visits for Covid 19 have all remained stable.

 

[godisney14]

Yes, but there needs to be context to them. I've mentioned before, my county reported 15 new cases one day last week, which showed an increase of 3% in new cases. Statistically correct. But when you broke it down, ALL 15 cases went into recovered, not active, which almost exclusively points to a testing back long. Yes, they existed, but were no longer a threat. Anybody who just looks at the brief summary would have probably freaked out, when it wasn't necessarily warranted.

Also, if these people didn't all test on the same day, then it's really not 300 new ones in a day. It's 300 new ones, but spread out would look differently.

I am not saying either of these is the case here. I don't know. I do know context matters thought and that people tend to only look at the baseline numbers and don't delve any further into what they actually mean. The same goes for people only looking at total cases and not percentage positives. It's the same idea.

Does your county keep track and report status updates on every single new patient case?

 

[Meriweather]

Yesterday’s new case count for my county was over 300! No that’s not a typo. No that’s not for the state. Our county! This is why we limit going out to run errands and always wear masks.

Our county was up 672 cases from yesterday!!

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Does your county keep track and report status updates on every single new patient case?

We get it reported as new cases and then broken down by total active and total recovered for a total number of cases. And that is updated each day. I don't know what they use to determine recovered though.

We only get total hospitalizations (which have remained the same for the last 2-3 weeks at 42, 11 total in the ICU), although I finally found a place that shows current hospitalizations (13, with 4 in ICU and 3 on vents).

Let me find our dashboard and I will edit to screenshot a picture of what I'm talking about in the breakdown of active/recovered. (Also just saw our positives are 2% of all tests done, so 98% came back negative).

 

[Pyotr]

Minnesota changed the way they reported cases on Thursday. Previously it was each person was counted, now it’s each test. So if a person tested positive two weeks ago, takes another test and they’re positive , it’s now counted as two positives.

 

[disneychrista]

We get it reported as new cases and then broken down by total active and total recovered for a total number of cases.

Based on above isn't it possible the day they reported the 15 NEW cases 15 OLD cases were deemed recovered? Not that the 15 new cases were already recovered.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Based on above isn't it possible the day they reported the 15 NEW cases 15 OLD cases were deemed recovered? Not that the 15 new cases were already recovered.

I suppose it’s possible, but the chances of those numbers matching exactly is slim.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Minnesota changed the way they reported cases on Thursday. Previously it was each person was counted, now it’s each test. So if a person tested positive two weeks ago, takes another test and they’re positive , it’s now counted as two positives.

Oh wow! That seems convoluted and way to really skew numbers. Do they break it down for you at all?