2023 resale price speculation

[HIRyeDVC]

I am one of those having purchased 260 OKW points in 1993 and 200 BWV subsequently. We still enjoy going, and will turn 84 about when the 2042s wrap up. So I really have no desire to get money back for them at this point. I have grandchildren now and we will enjoy our trips for as long as we can.

You are blessed beyond measure! I hope to share the same story in 30 years when DVC costs a million dollars!

 

[DsneyDude1]

You are blessed beyond measure! I hope to share the same story in 30 years when DVC costs a million dollars!

Thank you!! We often say it is the best money we ever spent. The family memories are priceless!

 

[havoc315]

I recall seeing data that showed something similar - about 1% of OKW contracts sell per year, and some of those could have been sold more than once.

Another question is: Is the typical OKW buyer typical of all DVC buyers?

Not sure you can ever identify a "typical" buyer. A 150 point buyer is very different than a 1,000 point buyer. A direct RIV buyer is different than a re-sale SSR buyer, etc.

OKW definitely were "typical" buyers 30 years ago, when OKW was the only resort.

I don’t see why not but perhaps there’s something different about those who bought in the 1990s?

For example, in its early days, DVC represented an elite status - it meant something special to be a DVC member. Obviously, there were a lot fewer points then there are today and DVD was even less aggressive about selling then they are today? The point? DVC buyers in the 1990s might have been more devoted to the Disney brand than DVC buyers of today.

Then there’s the huge price difference. Even adjusted for inflation, DVC was a much better value for new buyers.

Of they are more likely to re-sell because they have seen their dues increase while the benefits have been decreased. They bought back in the day when free park tickets were included. They bought when an annual pass was $180... So they had their pre-paid accommodations, while park tickets were low. They could take a family of four for 2 weeks at WDW for $720. Now, two weeks of park tickets for a family of 4 would be about $6,000-$7,000. If they can't even afford the park tickets and dues anymore, a good reason to re-sell!

With DVC being less of a financial burden in the 1990s, perhaps those buyers never felt the same degree of financial strain when times got tough, meaning they are less likely to sell their contracts for financial reasons.

As I said, maybe they felt even more financial strain than current buyers, as they bought without expecting the massive inflation in dues and ticket prices, all while benefits were reduced.

Added together, it’s possible that those who bought at OKW in the 1990s are less likely to sell than today’s buyers.

Or added together, they are more likely to re-sell, given how long it's been. If they bought when they were in their 30's.. They are now retiring, and might not want to continue paying dues now that they are on a fix income. And their kids are completely grown up.
If they bought in their 40's, they may now be getting to the point where they don't want to travel as much.
If they bought in 1992 in their 50's, they may now be getting to the point where they can't travel..
If they bought in 1992 in their 60s... their kids may now be looking to sell off OKW if they don't have an interest themselves.

Ultimately, I don't think there is sufficient evidence to say that OKW owners are less likely to re-sell than other buyers. All we can do is look at overall averages, the big data.

 

[Cfabar1]

Aulani is starting to look very attractive, especially if you are someone who doesn’t care too much about WDW home resort availability. Yes, the dues are higher, but the sales prices are collapsing.

Aulani direct is almost impossible to justify right now, even with their incentives.

 

[tom1944]

Aulani is starting to look very attractive, especially if you are someone who doesn’t care too much about WDW home resort availability. Yes, the dues are higher, but the sales prices are collapsing.

Aulani direct is almost impossible to justify right now, even with their incentives.

My concern is potential restrictions on resale purchases there. I could deal with restrictions at WDW resorts but I could see Aulani restrictions being potential problem

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

My concern is potential restrictions on resale purchases there. I could deal with restrictions at WDW resorts but I could see Aulani restrictions being potential problem

Aulani resale owners can stay at any property except Riviera as of right now. Even in 2060 they’ll still have several WDW choices.

 

[tom1944]

Aulani resale owners can stay at any property except Riviera as of right now. Even in 2060 they’ll still have several WDW choices.

It still makes me worried. It would have to be a significant savings to make me feel comfortable

That said I am going to run the numbers over the next few months

 

[pianomanzano]

It still makes me worried. It would have to be a significant savings to make me feel comfortable

That said I am going to run the numbers over the next few months

You’d likely be grandfathered in from any restrictions if you already own AUL. I’d personally be more worried about them selling AUL off before them putting in any restrictions that would affect people that already owned there.

 

[disneydreamer781]

I don’t know. Those original OKW owners had some amazing perks. Including free park tickets. Free park tickets for everyone in their reservations! They also bought them for like $50pp. If I was an original OKW owner, I’d be very tempted to sell after having gotten more than my money’s worth over those years, and still have the ability to make a profit.

Oh yeah, I remember this! Not too shabby. I believe it was free park tickets per bed so if you were in a studio or 1 BR you got 2 park tickets as they considered the pull-out a bed in the 1 BR. Since it was the 3 of us, my mom, me, and my niece who was a child during most of those trips it worked out pretty well. I have also thought about selling but not because of the idea of making a profit. The decision was based mostly on short-term financial reasons but I've managed to hold on to it up to now and I also just could never find myself letting it go. We still go to WDW a lot. It was such a good decision at the time and even with a little diligence, I've been able to stay at most of the DVC resorts that I've wanted to.

 

[CarolynFH]

If I was an original OKW owner, I’d be very tempted to sell after having gotten more than my money’s worth over those years, and still have the ability to make a profit.

We're original BWV owners and have gotten much more than our money's worth over the years. I'm afraid to sell because I don't want to pay the capital gains tax on the profit!

And anyway, we still like using our points....

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Oh yeah, I remember this! Not too shabby. I believe it was free park tickets per bed so if you were in a studio or 1 BR you got 2 park tickets as they considered the pull-out a bed in the 1 BR. Since it was the 3 of us, my mom, me, and my niece who was a child during most of those trips it worked out pretty well. I have also thought about selling but not because of the idea of making a profit. The decision was based mostly on short-term financial reasons but I've managed to hold on to it up to now and I also just could never find myself letting it go. We still go to WDW a lot. It was such a good decision at the time and even with a little diligence, I've been able to stay at most of the DVC resorts that I've wanted to.

We're original BWV owners and have gotten much more than our money's worth over the years. I'm afraid to sell because I don't want to pay the capital gains tax on the profit!

And anyway, we still like using our points....

You guys truly enjoyed those DVC golden years. Do you feel slighted after all those perks were taken away? Sounds to me you all still love going to Disney.

 

[CarolynFH]

You guys truly enjoyed those DVC golden years. Do you feel slighted after all those perks were taken away? Sounds to me you all still love going to Disney.

LOL, what perks taken away? The free ticket incentive ended before we bought, and for a number of years the most common complaint here on DISboards was that DVC owners didn’t get any respect, much less perks, from Disney. “All we paid for was a room, and that’s all we got.” Oh yes, almost forgot, we did enjoy free valet parking at the resort!

Yes, we do still love going to Disney, but we’re slowing down some now. However, we expect a new grandbaby this year, so we hope to be back to booking 2br again in a couple of years!

 

[disneydreamer781]

You guys truly enjoyed those DVC golden years. Do you feel slighted after all those perks were taken away? Sounds to me you all still love going to Disney.

No, not really because I knew it was for a limited time (7 years) anyway and that was because it was financed which was the only way I would be able to purchase them since I was a secretary and $12K was a lot of money to me at the time. It was also the first DVC and a new concept for Disney but yeah, it was perfect timing because I never could afford the points now at current prices. Where could I get 230 points in the 12K area (closer to 14K with financing) today?

 

[Cfabar1]

It seems to me like prices are trending lower, 8 days into the new year. I get an email (as I’m sure many of you do) each day from the board sponsor as to the current prices. 150 Aulani points at $104 per point popped out at me. 2 Poly Contracts with 0 for 22, but full in 23 at $162 pp - and 100 point contracts at that. Seems to me sellers are getting the message that prices need to come down a little bit.

 

[RoseGold]

I am one of those having purchased 260 OKW points in 1993 and 200 BWV subsequently. We still enjoy going, and will turn 84 about when the 2042s wrap up. So I really have no desire to get money back for them at this point. I have grandchildren now and we will enjoy our trips for as long as we can.

So.... You're saying you'll be here for the big quitclaim fight! I know you didn't sign the quitclaim, right?

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

It seems to me like prices are trending lower, 8 days into the new year. I get an email (as I’m sure many of you do) each day from the board sponsor as to the current prices. 150 Aulani points at $104 per point popped out at me. 2 Poly Contracts with 0 for 22, but full in 23 at $162 pp - and 100 point contracts at that. Seems to me sellers are getting the message that prices need to come down a little bit.

Biggest droppers i see in the last few weeks are Riviera and OKW-Extended. Riviera resale has been consistently dropping several dollars a month since summer (which makes sense given that we’ve gone from just a smattering of contracts for sale to a whole bunch in year 4 of the resort)

 

[Cfabar1]

They’re all dropping, and the board sponsor can only do so much to prop up prices. It’s really up to Disney to decide how much they want to ROFR, and up to buyers to decide how much they want to pay. Probably in that order.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

They’re all dropping, and the board sponsor can only do so much to prop up prices. It’s really up to Disney to decide how much they want to ROFR, and up to buyers to decide how much they want to pay. Probably in that order.

I think demand drives ROFR not the other way around. Why would disney buy back contracts they can’t sell any time soon?

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

They’re all dropping, and the board sponsor can only do so much to prop up prices. It’s really up to Disney to decide how much they want to ROFR, and up to buyers to decide how much they want to pay. Probably in that order.

And when I look at the ROFR thread, which obviously is just a small subset of all deals, I see a different market than what is presented elsewhere. Hence some of my comments in another thread.

 

[Sandisw]

I think demand drives ROFR not the other way around. Why would disney buy back contracts they can’t sell any time soon?

They took a lot of points via ROFR at SSR and AKV in the last year and have not sold anywhere close to what was taken back.

So, while I do think sometimes they take because they have direct buyers, the numbers between ROFR points and sales for direct at sold out are just too far apart to suggest that the lack of ROFR these past few months and the lower prices is simply because they don’t have interested buyers.