2023 resale price speculation

[CarolynFH]

They took a lot of points via ROFR at SSR and AKV in the last year and have not sold anywhere close to what was taken back.

So, while I do think sometimes they take because they have direct buyers, the numbers between ROFR points and sales for direct at sold out are just too far apart to suggest that the lack of ROFR these past few months and the lower prices is simply because they don’t have interested buyers.

They're still posting exchanges on both RCI and II, so sometimes I wonder whether they're using their points (e.g., points taken in ROFR as well as foreclosure in addition to their regular 2% ownership) for that, too. BWV and AKV have shown up on II in the last few months, as well as the usual SSR and OKW.

 

[Brian Noble]

sometimes I wonder whether they're using their points (e.g., points taken in ROFR as well as foreclosure in addition to their regular 2% ownership) for that, too.

I will bet big on "no". They used to use RCI as a rental outlet during the Great Recession (the RDXX codes), but they were very much Not Cheap. There is zero incentive for Disney to deposit developer-owned inventory into either exchange--particularly because they don't do much to get inbounds on a tour. They don't get anything out of it.

I think instead the RCI volume is just people who are finally confirming exchanges with points deposited prior to 2022.

 

[tom1944]

The Personal Savings Rate just hit a low of 2.2%. The last time it was this low was 2006/2007 and we all know what happened soon after that.


The question - was there built-up savings from during the pandemic. IMHO I do not believe so.