2023 resale price speculation

[gscott8075]

There are just 18 years left on the 2042 resorts (VB, HHI, BWV, BCV, Boulder Ridge) and then they expire with no value. When we originally bought, there were almost 40 years remaining. 18 years is not a long time. And if you keep it until the end, you will have no value remaining.

You need to be committed to annual vacations at a DVC resort and if so, determining if the initial cost + dues will be less expensive than Disney hotel rates.

One major factor is that the kids grow up. We used to go to WDW once every 1-2 years. Then we discovered the DVC at Hilton Head and after our first trip there, our daughters chose Disney Hilton Head over Disney World for annual trips (We all did - the resort provided magical vacations for many years)

And during the high school / college years, they preferred that we rent a house in HHI with other families and to take trips to other places.

When my wife and I discussed with them that we thought we should sell DVC, they were initially opposed, and then they agreed that it made sense and really we haven't looked back. We went to WDW a few years ago for the first time in years and had a great time. Since we sold DVC, we rented points and stayed at Aulani - it was great. But the next time we went to Hawaii, we stayed elsewhere.

We are going on the Fantasy for New Years and expect to have a great trip.

When we first bought DVC, we had been doing WDW and we saw how quickly our kid's vacation interests evolved and matured over the years. We were able to sell our interest and just about break even after 18 years of ownership. If we bought now, there would be nothing to sell in 18 years.

This is just my family's story - everyone is unique! But one thing is for sure - 2042 is not that far away!

 

[Jack Kerouac]

Depending on your philosophy, metaphysics, or religion this isn’t something you get to do. In mine, clean living might buy you a little but only at the margins. Arguably I’m already playing with house money.

As Vin Scully put it: we are all day to day.

Additionally, working in finance, there is a lot more focus on money by advisors and clients than there probably should be. We have clients with a lot of money but have no idea who they are or what they want to do. We also have clients that ended up with a lot more money than they ever thought they would have and had they known this, they would have spent more on experiences when the kids were home or their spouse was still alive. A good friend of mine has a wife that has a health issue that will cause them to not travel like they thought they would when they retire. A few years ago, I was in the trap of trying to save every dollar so I would be able to do more things with my wife during retirement. Seeing and hearing these stories, I'm now trying to shift to a more-balanced approach that allows me to enjoy today while also saving for later goals. So it's not so much about getting more time in a literal sense, but pulling some things forward that I was saving for later. I want to create those memories with my kids and wife now, and hopefully later too. But there may not be a later or that later could be very different than how I imagine it today.

 

[DonMacGregor]

A few years ago, I was in the trap of trying to save every dollar so I would be able to do more things with my wife during retirement. Seeing and hearing these stories, I'm now trying to shift to a more-balanced approach that allows me to enjoy today while also saving for later goals. So it's not so much about getting more time in a literal sense, but pulling some things forward that I was saving for later. I want to create those memories with my kids and wife now, and hopefully later too. But there may not be a later or that later could be very different than how I imagine it today.

Much of that is our attitude now. As I've said before, we did an REI Adventures Machu Picchu trek a couple of years ago. There's zero chance that would have been anywhere near enjoyable, or maybe even possible, at 65 or 70 versus 55 (and 45 would have been even better, LOL).

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

So has it been firmly legally established by DVC that there won't ever be any more extensions offered to 2042 contracts?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

So has it been firmly legally established by DVC that there won't ever be any more extensions offered to 2042 contracts?

No. Nobody really knows what will happen. It’s just all speculation.

 

[BeachClub2014]

No. Nobody really knows what will happen. It’s just all speculation.

I doubt DVC even has a concrete plan yet for what will happen in 2042.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I doubt DVC even has a concrete plan yet for what will happen in 2042.

even if they do, no one who works there now will work there in ~2038 when they’re making final decisions. It’s gonna change a lot.

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

2038 is only 15 years away...There must be a few CMs who can make it til then (Tho I sympathize with how many times a day they have to answer USE YEAR questions )

Anyway, unless there's a master plan at some point to sell off all 2042 properties to an outside company (an idea I see discussed here sometimes) or create a new kind of Disney real estate product, I think the only other choices are let contracts expire making them worthless by '42 or offering attractive extensions every few years.

The longer they wait to decide, more owners will dump their contracts, fewer will be resold & DVC will need to fund the absent dues that owners would otherwise be paying for maintenance.

Or am I looking at that ?

 

[havoc315]

even if they do, no one who works there now will work there in ~2038 when they’re making final decisions. It’s gonna change a lot.

They will start planning long before that. They may not have started yet, but this is basically a huge chunk of real estate that they re-take ownership of, as of January 30, 2042.
Whether they have already started considering their long term options or not, I really can't say. But certainly, by 2032, they will be formulating long-term plans for resort development that includes the 2042 resorts.

 

[Sandisw]

2038 is only 15 years away...There must be a few CMs who can make it til then (Tho I sympathize with how many times a day they have to answer USE YEAR questions )

Anyway, unless there's a master plan at some point to sell off all 2042 properties to an outside company (an idea I see discussed here sometimes) or create a new kind of Disney real estate product, I think the only other choices are let contracts expire making them worthless by '42 or offering attractive extensions every few years.

The longer they wait to decide, more owners will dump their contracts, fewer will be resold & DVC will need to fund the absent dues that owners would otherwise be paying for maintenance.

Or am I looking at that ?

Everything reverts to Disney on Feb 1st, 2042. They will inherit a whole bunch of new hotel rooms to rent to guests.

While we are all guessing, I think the fact nothing has been offered and we are 19 years left is a big clue,

OKW was done so far in advance and it didn’t work well and there will be owners who never paid for an extension and still own it. Since the ground lease was extended, the resort will still exist so they will have to deal with that. There would no need for sellers to sign quit claim deeds if it was an automatic Disney gets the contract.

But, an extension means that DVD can’t adjust the point charts because they can’t sell more points if they are extending the ground lease of the resort.

I think if one did get extended, it would be BRV to have to expire with CCV. I think VB and HH get sold, and that really only leaves BWV and BCV…and those are prime properties that can command higher charts and resale restrictions. I just don’t see DVD giving up on that.

 

[Nabas]

They will start planning long before that. They may not have started yet, but this is basically a huge chunk of real estate that they re-take ownership of, as of January 30, 2042.

I wondered about this.

The resorts currently being offered for sale (AUL, RIV, and VGF2) add up to 20.0 million points.

The 2042 resorts (OKW, BWV, BRV, BCV, VB, and HHI) add up to 20.5 million points.

Maybe all Disney needs to do is keep it going till 2024 and they can start the cycle all over again?

 

[sethschroeder]

I believe less than 1 in 4 OKW contracts has been resold even once in 30 years. So I'm not sure what statistics you're referencing.

1% of all points turnover annually typically

As a resort times out fully maybe that speeds up or slows down but everything is still 20 years out from expiration.

Obviously my calculations are based on a random sample size but align to a very old thread on this board as well that pulled every OKW resales contract through like 2014 or something.

 

[havoc315]

1% of all points turnover annually typically

As a resort times out fully maybe that speeds up or slows down but everything is still 20 years out from expiration.

Obviously my calculations are based on a random sample size but align to a very old thread on this board as well that pulled every OKW resales contract through like 2014 or something.

So assume 1% of OKW contracts re-sell a year. Over 30 years.. but that doesn’t mean 30% of OKW contracts are currently held by re-sale buyers, as some contracts may have been re-sold multiple times.
So a conclusion that less than 1/4th of OKW contracts are held by re-sale buyers may be pretty close to accurate.

 

[sethschroeder]

So assume 1% of OKW contracts re-sell a year. Over 30 years.. but that doesn’t mean 30% of OKW contracts are currently held by re-sale buyers, as some contracts may have been re-sold multiple times.
So a conclusion that less than 1/4th of OKW contracts are held by re-sale buyers may be pretty close to accurate.

Yup could be.

I didn't mean to say its wrong I just was outlining the typical volume that I saw.

 

[Nabas]

So assume 1% of OKW contracts re-sell a year. Over 30 years.. but that doesn’t mean 30% of OKW contracts are currently held by re-sale buyers, as some contracts may have been re-sold multiple times.
So a conclusion that less than 1/4th of OKW contracts are held by re-sale buyers may be pretty close to accurate.

I recall seeing data that showed something similar - about 1% of OKW contracts sell per year, and some of those could have been sold more than once.

Another question is: Is the typical OKW buyer typical of all DVC buyers?

I don’t see why not but perhaps there’s something different about those who bought in the 1990s?

For example, in its early days, DVC represented an elite status - it meant something special to be a DVC member. Obviously, there were a lot fewer points then there are today and DVD was even less aggressive about selling then they are today? The point? DVC buyers in the 1990s might have been more devoted to the Disney brand than DVC buyers of today.

Then there’s the huge price difference. Even adjusted for inflation, DVC was a much better value for new buyers. With DVC being less of a financial burden in the 1990s, perhaps those buyers never felt the same degree of financial strain when times got tough, meaning they are less likely to sell their contracts for financial reasons.

Added together, it’s possible that those who bought at OKW in the 1990s are less likely to sell than today’s buyers.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Added together, it’s possible that those who bought at OKW in the 1990s are less likely to sell than today’s buyers.

I don’t know. Those original OKW owners had some amazing perks. Including free park tickets. Free park tickets for everyone in their reservations! They also bought them for like $50pp. If I was an original OKW owner, I’d be very tempted to sell after having gotten more than my money’s worth over those years, and still have the ability to make a profit.

 

[Sandisw]

I don’t know. Those original OKW owners had some amazing perks. Including free park tickets. Free park tickets for everyone in their reservations! They also bought them for like $50pp. If I was an original OKW owner, I’d be very tempted to sell after having gotten more than my money’s worth over those years, and still have the ability to make a profit.

I don’t believe the free ticket offer was for everyone. I believe it was for half the number of occupancy. So, studios and 1 bedrooms got 2, 2 bedrooms got 4 and GVs 6.

I think the initial price was $51/pt so those owners have gotten so much value out of it and can still make some money!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I don’t believe the free ticket offer was for everyone. I believe it was for half the number of occupancy. So, studios and 1 bedrooms got 2, 2 bedrooms got 4 and GVs 6.

I think the initial price was $51/pt so those owners have gotten so much value out of it and can still make some money!

What I would do for those prices and perks now! They were truly DVC golden years

 

[E2ME2]

And that’s definitely understandable. Money is not the only thing you are spending on vacation; you are also spending time. Some people would really enjoy spending that time with the Mouse. Others would not.

Arguably, the time is more important. As I used to tell my grad students, money is a renewable resource. Time on the other hand? Not so much.

AGREED!
I teach Project Management for Community Colleges and on-site for staff at local corporations,
and I always emphasize that same point. I relate the business principles of time & money to applying that to one's life.
Time has a value that can not be monetized When you're out of money, you can come up with ways to get more money,
but when you're out of time, you're out of time !!
Nevertheless, I still chart my DVC expenses and try to establish a break-even and a positive return point.
If I do nothing more than break even, I still come out ahead because of the intrinsic value of the good times we have enjoying DVC!

 

[DsneyDude1]

I don’t know. Those original OKW owners had some amazing perks. Including free park tickets. Free park tickets for everyone in their reservations! They also bought them for like $50pp. If I was an original OKW owner, I’d be very tempted to sell after having gotten more than my money’s worth over those years, and still have the ability to make a profit.

I am one of those having purchased 260 OKW points in 1993 and 200 BWV subsequently. We still enjoy going, and will turn 84 about when the 2042s wrap up. So I really have no desire to get money back for them at this point. I have grandchildren now and we will enjoy our trips for as long as we can.