What is the break even point for an AP with DVC discount?

WDWorld2003.....If 10 days is the max for park tickets, then the AP definitely makes sense.

My next issue is going to be Tables in Wonderland vs. DDP. You mentioned that you are getting Tables in Wonderland for a 5 day trip. Unless you have a huge family, I am wondering if that will save you that much money over buying DDP. For the longest time, I have wanted to crunch the numbers for DDE vs DDP, but unless I can get my hand on the menus at the various restaurants, I think it is pointless.

For many, I think the DDP is a better deal (seems to work out that way more often), but not everyone wants the DDP, better deal or not -- like our family. We're very happy with the TiW card - it paid for itself on a 4 day trip (meaning our discounts = the price paid for the card) and now it's just all savings to us for future trips through next year.

And allears has all the restaurant menus and prices if you want to figure it out for yourself.
 
Usually we go to 4 or 5 sit down meals each costing anywhere from $130 to $160 a meal for a family of 4. Saving 20% on $700 in meals for the week would be $140 minus the card cost of $60 for a total of $80 in savings. If we do return in the next year that savings would be much greater.

The only reason the AP works for us this trip is because of the room savings - otherwise we would get the 10 day non-expiring pass which is what we have for the rest of our family. We usually can get 2-3 trips out of one pass depending on how we use them. We can only go 1 week at a time and usually it's every 1 1/2 to 2 years.

Only my DH will be getting the AP for the room code. There are no other codes available during the time we will be there. I like the DDP but only for a few days... it's way too much food for us.
 
This is the way I compared it for my family.
We are planning on 2 trips per year 5 days each.
Since our oldest turned 10 last month and our youngest isn't 2 yet, we need :

3 Adults + 1 Child >

5 day Park Hopper = $1053 x 2 trips per year = $2,106


10 day Park Hopper with No Expireration = $2,037.36 (2 trips - 5 days each)


Annual Pass (w/DVC discount) = $1526.16/3 trips x2 per year = $1,017.44
(3 trips: June 7th,2009 + Dec 18th 2009 + June 1st 2010)


Here are 2 links you might want to look at
http://allears.net/pl/discounts.htm
http://allears.net/pl/ticketchart.htm
 
Here is what I worked out to make the decision. It may seem a little complicated, but it's just a matter of answering yes or no to the situations. This does not take into account any discounts obtained from the AP, such as merchandise, room discounts or TIW. This is based on prices from Disney, not discount brokers (which actually doesn't really affect the decision).
MYW = Magic Your Way ticket
PH = Park Hopper add on
WFM = Water Park Fun and more
NE = Non-Expiring
AP = Annual Pass
PAP = Premium Annual Pass
WPSA = Water Park Single Admission

For One Trip of 14 Days or Less
If you will visit the major parks 10 days or less, buy a 10d MYW PH - $306
If you will visit the major parks 11 days, buy a 10d MYW PH and 1d MYW non-PH - $386
If you buy a MYW as above, and will visit the water parks only once - buy a WPSA - $43
If you buy a MYW as above, and will visit the water parks more than once - add WFM to the MYW ticket - $54 (watch the 14 day expiry)
If you will visit the major parks 12 or more days, buy a DVC-discounted AP - $391
If you have an AP, and will visit the water parks 2 times (or less) - buy WPSA - $78 (with AP discount)
If you have an AP, and will visit the water parks 3 or more times - buy a PAP - $504 ($113 more than AP)

For Multiple Trips Within a Year
If you will visit the major parks a TOTAL of 6 days or less, buy a 6d MYW PH NE - $378 (with a discount broker this increases to 7 days)
If you buy a MYW as above, and will visit the water parks only once - buy a WPSA - $43
If you buy a MYW as above, and will visit the water parks more than once - add WFM to the MYW ticket - $54
If you will visit the major parks 7 or more days, buy an AP - $391
If you have an AP, and will visit the water parks 2 times (or less) - buy WPSA - $78 (with AP discount)
If you have an AP, and will visit the water parks 3 or more times - buy a PAP - $504 ($113 more than AP)

A Word About Non-Expiring Tickets
Non-expiring MYW tickets can have great value if your trips do not occur within the same year. Since this thread is more about an AP, I haven't done a lot of analysis other than the following observation.

NE MYW have value only if they completely cover your needs for entire trips. For example, if you have a 10day NE and 6 days are used, you get the value for a trip where you only go to the parks 4 days. If your next trip is going to be longer than 4 days, save the ticket and buy an expiring ticket for this trip.

There is also a sweet spot for people who do the water parks. A 10day Non-Expiring ticket costs $213 more than the expiring version. This non-expiry applies to the water park options as well. Even if you use all 10 days of your major parks in a single trip, the water park admissions are still left. This means that you paid $267 for 10 water park admissions ($54 for the WFM option and $213 for the NE). This works out to less than $27 per admission compared to the gate price of $43. Or it could mean not having to pay for the WFM for several trips. This is a good option to consider if you go 1 or 2 times to the water parks on each trip. If you do the water parks 2 times each trip, 5 trips will cost $270 in WFM options compared to the $267 doing it the NE way (a breakeven proposition until you consider the inevitable price increases). If you do the water parks once each trip, the savings are as much as $160.


Anyway, that's my analysis on a DVC-discounted AP versus MYW decision.
 














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