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Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Oct 14, 2013
- Messages
- 194
Wait a second. Didn't you just say that most people, almost all of them I think you said, are uninformed impulse buyers?
Yes. Why do you ask?
Wait a second. Didn't you just say that most people, almost all of them I think you said, are uninformed impulse buyers?
Ok thanks. I'll look at those boards tomorrow. This wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I can't buy a $30 watch without finding out if it's a good deal. We researched and questioned for months. We really have no plan to ever stay anywhere else and we never go at peak season. To be honest there will be times we go and never even go into the parks. We're resort people and this is where we want to stay.
Then it sounds like you made a good decision for yourself. Again, just because it is a mistake for many people, does not mean it is a mistake for you. Based on what you say here, it sounds like you may be in the group where buying will turn out well.
Thanks. I'm getting there. No regrets. Yet!!!
You people are fun to argue with, I'm learning lots. Goodnight.
I can't speak for others but personally I believe many buy in either on the hype or without sufficient information among other mistakes, I haven't said most, I don't have the %. I'm quite certain I've never told a specific person THEY made a mistake in this area unless they asked. As I quoted earlier, I think it was in this thread, I have a friend that bought another timeshare when I gave him a trip there. I didn't warn him before the fact but did give him the info afterwards that he had paid significant dollars for something he could get essentially free resale. He was within the cancelation period. It was his choice but there really was no reason to keep the purchase as he did. I've seen this scenario happen over and over again in timeshares as well as people who bought and later found out how much they'd overpaid. Fortunately for DVC the difference is not as great % wise as for some timeshares but the sheer dollars are as much or more in many cases. We've seen a number of examples here over the years of people who wished they hadn't bought or they'd made a different purchase. I've formulated my opinion on 20 years of owning DVC going back to the days of the Prodigy Board before the internet, 16 yrs here (really started 98 not 99 due to BBS issue), plus extensive timeshare experience with almost 10 years of TUG, almost 10 years of Timesharing Today not to mention other email lists related to Marriott, Bluegreen and Wyndham. That doesn't make me right necessarily but does give me accumulated experience.I have to agree with Ben that- I don't feel that MOST people who buy in direct are stupid or ignorant...
Reasons why:
1. we live in a world people can google DVC on their cell phones.. Thus pulling up the resale market..
2. I believe The lower 99% of people are much more careful with their money since 2009..
And would at least a little research before dropping $15k on anything..
3. I really doubt that when people buy in, that was the 1st time they have heard about DVC..
4. We all get the 10 day window to cancel our purchase.. A type of cool off period.. Everyone has this chance..
5. I think people value things differently...
The full 50 years means a lot to us.. Not so much to others..
If I was ok with staying at SSR every time, than I would have bought there..
We waited 5-6 years to buy in b/c we didn't like the other DVC resort.. And I knew I would regret not buy into VGF why we had the chance..
I think the reasons why we see people regret their purchase is
1. They fall on hard times.. It now has become a burden
2. Didn't use it like they thought they would.. Not even the best planner can plan 50 years out
Both these are not b/c they were stupid or ignorant.. Just facts of life..
And that is the main goal. Remember these thread's influence the posters but also those reading now and in the future. IF we help one person to make a better decision for them, all the effort and back and forth is worth it.Thanks. I'm getting there. No regrets. Yet!!!
You people are fun to argue with, I'm learning lots. Goodnight.
I used $1 difference in fees which I think will be conservative long term, invested the difference at 8% and used 4% inflation, conservative numbers in my book. I didn't factor in paying cash for an occasional VGF trip, didn't know that'w where we were going. 100 points at VGF will get you between 3-5 days per year with one weekend day with maybe 1 extra day every 2-3 years only if you go low season. You'd only need maybe 60 SSR points if you wanted to get the same number of days but rent VGF every 4 years. You can run the match on the TVM differences from the 100 vs 100 comparison above. Rental of VGF at say $1400-1500 each time, still far less than the difference if you invested the differences, even if you took the VGF rental out of the same pool. I realize you can spin these type of numbers about any way you want but it gives you an idea of the relative costs of each depending on how an individual would use it. This comparison also assumes that one always used the points at VGF, any variation from that assumption quickly removed value in favor of the SSR purchase.
Worst case scenario is I'm completely wrong and now one gets into VGF ever. In that case I'll just have to console myself with my many exchanges in to DVC, HI OF trips, Aruba OF trips, HHI OF trips and our Summer Gatlinburg options just to name a few of my failures to understand the process.
The information on the DVC Resource Center thread would suggest otherwise.
http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2823943 Post #3
I'm not sure how you are defining value here. I think most would agree that VGF are the most luxurious villas in the DVC system and the location has at least as much and sometimes much more to offer than other DVC locations. But the price of entry is roughly double the price of resale at other resorts and the point requirements to stay there more or less follow that ratio as well. So yes, I agree, that the VGF are amazing, but I'm not sure that there is any value in staying there. To me it seems like a "you get what you pay for" proposition.
That being said, I think you're being taken down a road that you don't need to go down, and in the process missing the opportunity to make a convincing argument that I have not seen on this thread (I apologize if it's been posted and I missed it). The value of owning at VGF is not just the ability to book at the 11 month window. It's the security one gets from having that ability. I typically plan my Disney vacations a year in advance and I almost always stay at BLT standard view and/or BWV BW view (two very high demand booking categories). I own at both resorts. So I know that barring extreme circumstances, I will be able to stay there almost any time I want to vacation there (given my planning practices). That in and of itself has value, regardless of whether or not I actually book the room.
Going back to the original question of whether or not VGF is worth it, I can clearly see that you think it is, Ben. The only argument you need to make is that if you compare the purchase of VGF to any other reliable option of staying there, you will be saving money by purchasing. Everything else is speculative and anecdotal. The fact is that there will be many people for whom purchasing VGF is not worth it. They will trade the points in exchanges, use them to stay at other resorts, rent them out at market rates and not a premium and even let them expire. All these things do happen, and I think it's a bit unwise to assume that VGF will be any different.
The problem I'm seeing is that you are projecting your experience and desires onto all other purchasers. Yes, you researched your purchase. Yes, it made sense to you. Yes, you are going to extract every bit of value from every point by staying at the VGF and booking at the 11 month window to insure that you will get what you want. But based on what I know about timeshares in general and DVC specifically, not everyone will behave in such a fashion.
What you suggest here is not out of the realm of possibility. Savvy owners stepped in and bought the fixed week option for the high demand weeks very early in the offering period. On top of that, there will be a higher number of people trying to book those weeks and many will walk reservations. The DVC system is structured so that every owner of a home resort can have nights at that resort equal to their point ownership every year. Unfortunately, it's not that clean and we know that certain weeks are in higher demand. Because of this, many people will be shut out during the first week of December. I don't think it's a problem that DVD is particularly worried about.
If you look at the number of registered members here on the DIS and compare that to the number of DVC owners at large, you will find that we here on the DIS comprise a very small percentage of DVC owners. And even here you see people with wildly differing opinions and levels of research or planning regarding their DVC purchase. Given the nature of timeshare sales in general, I would respectfully disagree with your assertion that most people consider their options before making a purchasing decision. It sounds like you did, but I would suggest that you are actually in the minority.
Ben, I think that your analysis here is missing something. The nature of DVC has changed. Without turning this into a statistical circus, DVC is more expensive now than it was in the earlier years. I'm not only talking about real dollars here, but relative dollars based on historical inflation rates. At it's inception DVC was an unknown and DVD needed to heavily incentivize people to purchase. People who bought OKW or BWV during the early years can very easily make a significant profit on their purchase if they were to sell now. People who bought BCV, VWL or BLT at inception can pretty much break even. However, people who bought BLT after year one or bought SSR or AKV at any point in time are in the red on their purchase. Same can be said for anybody who has bought and tried to sell VGF. Will that change in time? Perhaps. A case can be made that in five years VGF will be on the resale market for either more or less than its initial offering price. There is plenty of evidence to support either hypothesis. However, neither is guaranteed and I think it is risky to make buying decisions now based on predictions of what will happen with something as risky as timeshare pricing in the future.
Bringing it back to the main point, the analysis one should consider using when asking whether or not something is worth it involves looking at the cost of the alternatives and determining if the value of those alternatives plus the monetary differential are less than, equal to or more than the item you are considering purchasing. The short answer is that if you plan on staying at the Grand Floridian every year or every other year for the reasonable future, purchasing DVC may very well be the most economical way to do so. But one should be aware that there are many variables and pitfalls that can compromise the integrity of this analysis. The more one avoids them, the truer the results will be.
I know this was long. Thanks to anyone who read all (or even part) of it.![]()
Nope... A newbie I can agree with... Nothing wrong with that... We all were at some point. I own two Disney DVC's and two non-Disney timeshares. Most people I talk to tell the same story... "We were on vacation... Champaign bottles were popping... We bought in." So... I'm of the opinion, and I have only experience to back up my claim, that the majority of direct buyers buy primarily on emotion and not research... They do little or no research on their $30,000 or more purchase. As crazy as it sounds... I believe it to be true. If you did your due diligence and came to the conclusion that it was right for you, congrats... You're much farther ahead than most.
To get a better idea, head over to the TUG boards... Horror stories galore!
Sent from my iPad using DISBoards
I can't speak for others but personally I believe many buy in either on the hype or without sufficient information among other mistakes, I haven't said most, I don't have the %. I'm quite certain I've never told a specific person THEY made a mistake in this area unless they asked. As I quoted earlier, I think it was in this thread, I have a friend that bought another timeshare when I gave him a trip there. I didn't warn him before the fact but did give him the info afterwards that he had paid significant dollars for something he could get essentially free resale. He was within the cancelation period. It was his choice but there really was no reason to keep the purchase as he did. I've seen this scenario happen over and over again in timeshares as well as people who bought and later found out how much they'd overpaid. Fortunately for DVC the difference is not as great % wise as for some timeshares but the sheer dollars are as much or more in many cases. We've seen a number of examples here over the years of people who wished they hadn't bought or they'd made a different purchase. I've formulated my opinion on 20 years of owning DVC going back to the days of the Prodigy Board before the internet, 16 yrs here (really started 98 not 99 due to BBS issue), plus extensive timeshare experience with almost 10 years of TUG, almost 10 years of Timesharing Today not to mention other email lists related to Marriott, Bluegreen and Wyndham. That doesn't make me right necessarily but does give me accumulated experience.
I've also owned at one time of another maybe 60-70 different timeshare weeks/contracts. A max of 885 DVC points, down to 433 but really should go down to 100 or even 25. And in spite of the mantra that "Timeshare are not an investment", I've made quite a few $$$ by selling the ones I have. More importantly I've used them for the benefit of my family and others. We've done family trips of Nashville, Gatlinburg, Hilton Head, and Disney over the past 6 years (to narrow it) with up to 9 DVC units on exchange at one time, and 6-9 mostly two BR units for the rest of the trips. We've had up to 40 people, the low was 26 I believe.
Thisdman, you'd think no one would make such a purchase on site but with timeshares this happens a lot. But even when they investigate for DVC, many can't seem to get away from the hype and emotion.
And that is the main goal. Remember these thread's influence the posters but also those reading now and in the future. IF we help one person to make a better decision for them, all the effort and back and forth is worth it.
Look, I'm not valuing VGF because I like orange and you like Green and I say I win because it's orange. People HAVE BEEN PAYING MORE MONEY for decades to stay at the Grand, Disney's flagship resort. There's a reason for this. Is it because they liked the theming?....well, partly....is it because they like the colors?....well, maybe... It's because it's the highest end deluxe resort on premises....unquestionably....that is the part that it astounds me that NONE OF YOU care to include in your analysis. And, to me, it is the MOST IMPORTANT POINT. The VGF and the Poly will ALWAYS sit at least a step above the other DVC's because of WHERE THEY ARE. This point cannot be overstated....
You know what I think is funny? No, strike that....HILARIOUS. ...is that the very people poking fun at buyers of DVC or timeshares....have like FOUR OF THEM! lol...you guys kill me....The contention that most direct purchasers haven't researched or thought through their purchase is absolute rubbish. They may not have thought it through in the same way you did, but they ALSO may have thought it out BETTER than you did.....I'd vote for the latter.... As for TUG, DVC is not your ordinary timeshare which drops in value like a rock. We all know that....that's why we're here....right? Lets move on from that nicely placed diversion....
I used $1 difference because VGF dues are artificially low right now, the same happened for BLT and it's caught up somewhat. The nature of VGF make it a high maint location, likely rivaling AKV and possibly VB long term. The higher points to spread those costs to will help some on a pp point basis but not a lot. SSR is inherently a low maint property comparatively speaking. Personally I'm just as happy to stay at SSR or any of the other resorts at the costs I incur than to pay for retail VGF. I guess I'll just have to suffer in my $600 per 1 & 2 BR week exchanges and get into VGF when I chose to and can. I would have this morning for 5 nights had I chosen to for a 1 BR, our preferred option.You used $1 which you think will be conservative long term, even though SSR is older than VGF, more sprawling, and in more need of repair than VGF...even though they are 50 cents apart now....you think VGF is just gonna make a sudden leap from the pack and SSR is going to remain cheap for all you resale people? lol
We included cash for your VGF stays because that was your contention....buy at SSR and pay cash for VGF stays and you're better off. Stay with the program. You set the program Dean...
You forgot one factor in your analysis...you're staying at SSR and I'm staying at VGF....end of game. I could also forgo the whole thing and stay at the All star and save money...right? Of course, it isn't comparable....we all know that...but if we're only talking about $, that's where we should all be, right? Otherwise, we've made a poor financial decision. See where I'm going Dean?
For someone who wants to buy at VGF, SSR isn't the next best thing....
Again, let me be clear. I have not suggested that the majority will trade out and lose value only that a significant number will for various reasons. For those that get roped in off the street and buy, it likely is a significant majority. For those that have not been members and are fairly new to the game or have only looked at DVC casually over the years that buy only or mainly at VGF, it still is likely the majority though maybe less so. For those of us that are experienced, knowledgeable and have other options, I'd hope and expect it would not happen very often. However, there are several factors that might affect those choices even for the most experienced. Say you can't get anything that fits for you or you have to cancel then reschedule within the UY or holding account points for any one of a number of reasons. The other issue is that many tend to look at the points as found money once they own and worry less about the cost/value of those points. They choice of course but their choices will deterring the value they receive, which is essentially the subject we've been discussing the last few pages.Dean I believe you're truly trying to help others and your incite and experience is invaluable. After reading your posts people will surely dig deeper and ponder further their decisions which I think is your goal. Here is where I think you have it wrong. It seems to me you have your assumptions wrong. You are basing your opinions as if VGF is comparable to SSR and the like. This seems to lead you to believe the majority of the VGF owners will trade out of their home resort just like the SSR people do. I don't think you stated this specifically but it's the impression I'm getting. I might be wrong but I don't think this is the case. I think VGF owners will stay at VGF(not all of course). Once you change this assumption then everything else changes. Resort availability, demand, value both present and future, you see where I'm going.
To a degree likely so as is staying on property in general for the most part. So when I say emotion and hype, I'm suggesting that those buyers are letting those emotions overshadow reality and their best long term choices to a degree.One other thing. I'm willing to stipulate that ALL dvc purchases are emotional. People wouldn't be buying if they didn't like it and I also understand that your concern is the priority of this emotion in their decision. Very important stuff.
Ben, all this talk about "value" is just making me cringe. Maybe resale advocates come off holier than thou but for the most part I find posters like Dean just try to provide a sober dose of fiscal prudence which for a luxury timeshare purchase like DVC seems counterintuitive, but I digress.
I bought SSR points at 40% of the cost of VGF price per point. With just the differential in the purchase price, I could invest in a savings fund and pay for two years of tuition for my kids when they go to university. To me, that better represents value.
True, I will likely be unable to ever book VGF studios at peak DVC times with my SSR points but that doesn't mean that I can't stay at VGF whenever I want. I could rent out my SSR points and rent VGF points. With a delta of $3-5 per point for the rental, I'm still almost $90 ahead per point overall. Plus, I would imagine that at a small resort like VGF, maintenance fees are subject to greater fluctuations in the future due to unforeseen costs, renos, etc. There are not enough owners to stabilize the spikes but perhaps I will be proven wrong.
Now, I differ from many posters in that I am happy to try every resort at WDW. My kids are very young so our current favourite is AKV. In a few years, they may prefer BCV. When they are older, we might want to stay at OKW or SSR for Downtown Disney. So for us, SSR points are perfect. If there is ever a resort that we HAD to stay at to make our vacation truly magical, then we might purchase a small resale there in the future (like the Poly).
Anyways, this is DVC and Disney! There's no need to get your panties in a bunch and come off looking like a dick. I don't agree with your opinion but to each their own. So congratulations for purchasing at the VGF and I'm glad that you are happy with your purchase and feel as though you made the right choice.
I think an efficient way to own and use VGF is to split your points owning at least a second contract at a cheapier resort. That way you can use VGF exclusively for VGF stays, and your other contract for any other non-VGF stays you'll need to make.
From what I've seen around here that's actually what most older/experienced owners are doing anyway, by buying smaller VGF contracts or fixed week that can provide them just exactly what they need at VGF without many left over expensive points. For anything else they keep using cheapier non premium contracts.
This thread has been a very good read for me. Lots to learn!