VGF worth the Money ? Why I think YES!!!

[VGF Ben]

I think an efficient way to own and use VGF is to split your points owning at least a second contract at a cheapier resort. That way you can use VGF exclusively for VGF stays, and your other contract for any other non-VGF stays you'll need to make.

From what I've seen around here that's actually what most older/experienced owners are doing anyway, by buying smaller VGF contracts or fixed week that can provide them just exactly what they need at VGF without many left over expensive points. For anything else they keep using cheapier non premium contracts.

This thread has been a very good read for me. Lots to learn!

That might work for you, Paco....you want to stay at multiple places. But lets not all be so blind as to tell people where they are going to want to stay. I and many others want to stay at VGF....Not SSR....not AKL....not OKW....not that there is anything at all wrong with those DVC's....they're great. They just aren't the Grand. The only way into the Grand regularly is to pay for it. It's going to be that way for a long time. Don't confuse your ability to get in there in the first year with sales very low with your ability to get in there once it's sold and they've moved on to Poly sales.

That's all we are saying. We are not criticizing your way of DVC'ing...we are asking you to respect our decision....which most of you are not doing and have no basis for it...

 

[ELMC]

You used $1 which you think will be conservative long term, even though SSR is older than VGF, more sprawling, and in more need of repair than VGF...even though they are 50 cents apart now....you think VGF is just gonna make a sudden leap from the pack and SSR is going to remain cheap for all you resale people? lol

This statement does not accurately reflect what drives maintenance fee increases at DVC resorts. The fact that Saratoga Springs is more sprawling is a benefit, not a detriment to owners there. Maintenance costs are amortized over a much larger point base, meaning that the incremental cost per point is often lower. As for SSR being more in need of repair than VGF, that remains to be seen but recent history suggests that statement might not play out. One of the more recent DVC construction projects (BLT) was done on the cheap and owners there are seeing significant maintenance fee increases in the very early years of the resort. Only time will tell how well VGF holds up. But the fact that it is so small will most likely not be an advantage.

You forgot one factor in your analysis...you're staying at SSR and I'm staying at VGF....end of game. I could also forgo the whole thing and stay at the All star and save money...right? Of course, it isn't comparable....we all know that...but if we're only talking about $, that's where we should all be, right? Otherwise, we've made a poor financial decision. See where I'm going Dean?

For someone who wants to buy at VGF, SSR isn't the next best thing....

I believe that Dean's point was that one needs to consider the fact that it is theoretically possible to stay at the VGF using much less expensive SSR points. Anecdotal evidence would suggest that it is realistically possible as well.

To this point, we like to stay at VGC every so often. However, we go during such off peak times, that we bought resale at SSR and have successfully used the points to stay at VGC. So while I gave up certain advantages like the 11 month booking window and the ability to nearly guarantee a reservation during my desired times, I still accomplished the same thing as someone who paid $150 for their VGC points using my $57 resale SSR points. I stayed at the VGC.

Look, I'm not valuing VGF because I like orange and you like Green and I say I win because it's orange. People HAVE BEEN PAYING MORE MONEY for decades to stay at the Grand, Disney's flagship resort. There's a reason for this. Is it because they liked the theming?....well, partly....is it because they like the colors?....well, maybe... It's because it's the highest end deluxe resort on premises....unquestionably....that is the part that it astounds me that NONE OF YOU care to include in your analysis. And, to me, it is the MOST IMPORTANT POINT. The VGF and the Poly will ALWAYS sit at least a step above the other DVC's because of WHERE THEY ARE. This point cannot be overstated....

I believe that I (and others) have conceded this point. Forgive me, but I don't see the relevance. You are saying that VGF is nicer and more expensive. SSR is less fancy and less expensive. But if the delta between the two is the same, where is the value?

You know what I think is funny? No, strike that....HILARIOUS. ...is that the very people poking fun at buyers of DVC or timeshares....have like FOUR OF THEM!

lol...you guys kill me....

The contention that most direct purchasers haven't researched or thought through their purchase is absolute rubbish. They may not have thought it through in the same way you did, but they ALSO may have thought it out BETTER than you did.....I'd vote for the latter....

As for TUG, DVC is not your ordinary timeshare which drops in value like a rock. We all know that....that's why we're here....right? Lets move on from that nicely placed diversion....

The data would suggest otherwise. AKV started in the neighborhood of $90 per point (including incentives). It is now in the neighborhood of $145 per point (also including incentives). The current selling price of AKV resales is in the neighborhood of $80-85 per point but at one time was as low as $60 per point. BLT has experienced similar but less pronounced drops for anyone who has purchased in year two or beyond. I understand that the VGF has location and status in its favor. But working against it is the fact that even with that, it is still a timeshare, and the nature of timeshares would suggest that their value lies in their use, and not their cash value.

Dean I believe you're truly trying to help others and your incite and experience is invaluable. After reading your posts people will surely dig deeper and ponder further their decisions which I think is your goal. Here is where I think you have it wrong. It seems to me you have your assumptions wrong. You are basing your opinions as if VGF is comparable to SSR and the like. This seems to lead you to believe the majority of the VGF owners will trade out of their home resort just like the SSR people do. I don't think you stated this specifically but it's the impression I'm getting. I might be wrong but I don't think this is the case. I think VGF owners will stay at VGF(not all of course). Once you change this assumption then everything else changes. Resort availability, demand, value both present and future, you see where I'm going.

One other thing. I'm willing to stipulate that ALL dvc purchases are emotional. People wouldn't be buying if they didn't like it and I also understand that your concern is the priority of this emotion in their decision. Very important stuff.

Again, I think Dean's point is not that SSR is comparable to VGF, but that SSR owners will be able to stay at VGF using less expensive points. The main issue I'm seeing with this thread is that some have projected their plans, desires, motivations, etc. onto the DVC population at large. However, I would suggest that not only are DIS members more sophisticated than the typical DVC owner but they are also a very small percentage of DVC owners. To you it seems unfathomable that someone would buy VGF without researching, or without knowing about resale, or to use the points for cruises or to stay at other resorts, or any number of options other than staying at VGF. I agree with your feelings here. I own at BLT and do not use those points for anything but. However, time and experience would suggest that we are in the minority here. Although he doesn't put footnotes on every statement he makes, Dean has decades of timeshare experience and data to support what he says. I have learned to weigh his comments more heavily than others, including my own, on matters such as these.

 

[chukdotcom]

That might work for you, Paco....you want to stay at multiple places. But lets not all be so blind as to tell people where they are going to want to stay. I and many others want to stay at VGF....Not SSR....not AKL....not OKW....not that there is anything at all wrong with those DVC's....they're great. They just aren't the Grand. The only way into the Grand regularly is to pay for it. It's going to be that way for a long time. Don't confuse your ability to get in there in the first year with sales very low with your ability to get in there once it's sold and they've moved on to Poly sales.

That's all we are saying. We are not criticizing your way of DVC'ing...we are asking you to respect our decision....which most of you are not doing and have no basis for it...

I look forward to having this same exact discussion with "Poly Ben" in 2 years.

 

[VGF Ben]

BTW, here is my math on this:

Rent 215 VGF points at $15 per point = $3225 year
Buy 200 points at $150 per point and use 215 points per year for 10 years = $3482 per year

Is the $250 per year premium worth the ability to control all your own reservations? Probably is for me.

But at the end of those 10 years, I actually have residual value in the form of a salable asset. You have nothing.

Also, you have no knowledge whether you'll even be able to rent those points...forget when you need to go.

You don't think paying a 6.5% premium for the control of your reservations, plus residual value for up to 40 years after is worth it?

I'll take that every time.

That equation doesn't work for you....it works against you....

 

[PacoDF]

That might work for you, Paco....you want to stay at multiple places. But lets not all be so blind as to tell people where they are going to want to stay. I and many others want to stay at VGF....Not SSR....not AKL....not OKW....not that there is anything at all wrong with those DVC's....they're great. They just aren't the Grand. The only way into the Grand regularly is to pay for it. It's going to be that way for a long time. Don't confuse your ability to get in there in the first year with sales very low with your ability to get in there once it's sold and they've moved on to Poly sales.

That's all we are saying. We are not criticizing your way of DVC'ing...we are asking you to respect our decision....which most of you are not doing and have no basis for it...

I do respect your decision. Of course I do!! I even agree with you that if you can stay always at VGF your decision is totally right!! What I'm saying is that as soon as you need to stay elsewhere (due to availability or personal choice because you can eventually need more nights or space) you'd be better with two contracts as my previous post. And more every time you stay off VGF.

 

[Johnny D]

Spoke to Daves rental the other day. Said there is a huge demand for vgf and blt point rentals and they don't have the inventory to rent right now. So is renting vgf or poly going to be reliable or even possible on any type of basis in the future?

 

[chukdotcom]

But at the end of those 10 years, I actually have residual value in the form of a salable asset. You have nothing.

Also, you have no knowledge whether you'll even be able to rent those points...forget when you need to go.

You don't think paying a 6.5% premium for the control of your reservations, plus residual value for up to 40 years after is worth it?

I'll take that every time.

That equation doesn't work for you....it works against you....

Let me make it easy for you:

Initial Cost = $30,000 ($150x200)

Annual Costs:
Maintenance Fees: $1082
Op Cost/Interest (6%) = $1800
straight line depreciation = $600 ($30,000 / 50)
--------------------------------
Total Annual cost = $3482.

= 17.41 per point

The above assumes you will be able to sell your contract for $120 in 10 years. The good thing for you is, only the $1082 portion of the $3482 will rise over time. So, as time goes on, the cost differential will grow in your favor.

$17.41 per point is a reasonable price to pay for VGF points. But you are paying that for all points, even if you stay at AKV or anywhere else. Now you are paying a 50% premium.

 

[chukdotcom]

Spoke to Daves rental the other day. Said there is a huge demand for vgf and blt point rentals and they don't have the inventory to rent right now. So is renting vgf or poly going to be reliable or even possible on any type of basis in the future?

Dave's is not a good gauge for the ability to rent VGF points. He pays $11 for SSR points or VGF points. No one in their right mind would rent their VGF points for $11.

 

[Johnny D]

So how does one plan to rent vgf when they want to stay there? Also, what rental price per point will the market set?

 

[chukdotcom]

So how does one plan to rent vgf when they want to stay there? Also, what rental price per point will the market set?

I have seen some on the Rent board for $14 per point. That is too low IMO. If I owned them, I would not rent them for less than $18-20 per point. My guess is that David will have to pay a higher price for VGF points if he wants to be in the VGF rental biz.

 

[chukdotcom]

So how does one plan to rent vgf when they want to stay there? Also, what rental price per point will the market set?

Here are 500+ points for rent at $14 pp from just a couple of weeks ago. This is a screaming bargain IMO:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3244443&highlight=vgf

This person rented 200 for $15:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3199297&highlight=vgf

$17:

http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=3235641&highlight=vgf

You get the idea...

 

[Johnny D]

2 things..

Does renting those points get you in vgf when you want?

The straight line depreciation you used, I respectfully don't think will apply. It definitely hasn't to my bwv contract. I would use half that...but don't want to get into number estimating again. Time will bare out the facts.

 

[Thisdman]

Again, I think Dean's point is not that SSR is comparable to VGF, but that SSR owners will be able to stay at VGF using less expensive points. The main issue I'm seeing with this thread is that some have projected their plans, desires, motivations, etc. onto the DVC population at large. However, I would suggest that not only are DIS members more sophisticated than the typical DVC owner but they are also a very small percentage of DVC owners. To you it seems unfathomable that someone would buy VGF without researching, or without knowing about resale, or to use the points for cruises or to stay at other resorts, or any number of options other than staying at VGF. I agree with your feelings here. I own at BLT and do not use those points for anything but. However, time and experience would suggest that we are in the minority here. Although he doesn't put footnotes on every statement he makes, Dean has decades of timeshare experience and data to support what he says. I have learned to weigh his comments more heavily than others, including my own, on matters such as these.[/QUOTE]

And this is where I stated he is going wrong in my opinion. I don't think SSR points will be able to be used at VGF in anything other then 1 or 2 nights and even that will be very scarce. If his initial assumptions are incorrect then so will his conclusions.

Maybe we can attack this another way. It would help me if someone would answer these questions. I'm going to use BCV as an example because I believe it is currently selling resale for more then it was offered as an initial direct buy.
1. Do you all agree that the initial BCV owners are essentially the same as the current new VGF owners in that they bought for all the wrong reasons too? Emotion, impulse, drunkenness, etc. and they have acted the same in that many owners actually stay at other resorts?
2. How do you explain that BCV is selling for more now resale then it did when it first opened direct?
3. Why wouldn't VGF follow the path of BCV and even exceed it?

I hope I'm right about this. I'm new and apparently to lazy to look it up.

 

[PacoDF]

The straight line depreciation you used, I respectfully don't think will apply. It definitely hasn't to my bwv contract. I would use half that...but don't want to get into number estimating again. Time will bare out the facts.

IMHO most resorts contracts will hold their market value (not their direct retail price) almost flat during the first 30 or even more years (corrected by inflation of course). Only during the final 10-15 years the market price should drop lower. Of course the market value can and sure will change due to market changes: new resorts, new retail prices, external crisis, changes in the demand due to Disney new parks/atractions/events, etc.

Why I think this? Because most potential resale buyers do, as they should, evaluate DVC with a 8-10 years term in the future. So as long as the contract have more than 10-15 years remaining, the value should be lower but not as lower as a lineal depreciation..

 

[Dean]

Maybe we can attack this another way. It would help me if someone would answer these questions. I'm going to use BCV as an example because I believe it is currently selling resale for more then it was offered as an initial direct buy.
1. Do you all agree that the initial BCV owners are essentially the same as the current new VGF owners in that they bought for all the wrong reasons too? Emotion, impulse, drunkenness, etc. and they have acted the same in that many owners actually stay at other resorts?
2. How do you explain that BCV is selling for more now resale then it did when it first opened direct?
3. Why wouldn't VGF follow the path of BCV and even exceed it?

I hope I'm right about this. I'm new and apparently to lazy to look it up.

I believe some resorts will hold their value better than others and I think that's true for VGF more than most. I think there are several issues with prices. Personally I think they are at a high blip right now due to the VGF hype but time will tell. In general older resorts at WDW are in the ballpark to their original sale price. OKW was $48 and I believe BCV was $75. However, I think the retail price has escalated more than demand in general across DVC and thus it's more difficult for a new resort to retain it's value. For resale there really must either be a spread or lack of ANY availability resale due to the resale limitations. Even when VGF is sold out, there will likely be a new kid on the block (Poly) so many buyers will move on rather than pay a super premium for a given resort. Of course if there are additional resale restrictions, this could further affect resale price for all resorts but the newer more expensive resorts are more likely to be affected due to the higher buy in price.

 

[hcortesis]

VGF Ben. I don't know who you are.......but I like you!!!

 

[ELMC]

And this is where I stated he is going wrong in my opinion. I don't think SSR points will be able to be used at VGF in anything other then 1 or 2 nights and even that will be very scarce. If his initial assumptions are incorrect then so will his conclusions.

I certainly respect your opinion and your right to disagree, but I'm wondering what you are basing this prediction on.

I think the closest comparison to VGF would be VGC and as I posted earlier, I have had success multiple times booking 5-6 nights in a row in any room I wanted (using SSR points). Granted they were in lower demand times, but one was MLK weekend which isn't altogether a low low time. Time will prove which theory is correct, but based on the known history of DVC and the patterns that have been observed over many years, I can say with relative confidence that VGF will be available to non owners during low and even medium demand times.

Maybe we can attack this another way. It would help me if someone would answer these questions. I'm going to use BCV as an example because I believe it is currently selling resale for more then it was offered as an initial direct buy.
1. Do you all agree that the initial BCV owners are essentially the same as the current new VGF owners in that they bought for all the wrong reasons too? Emotion, impulse, drunkenness, etc. and they have acted the same in that many owners actually stay at other resorts?

I don't think it is fair to make sweeping generalizations like this. Everybody is different and some people research their purchases and some buy while they're immersed in the magic only to regret it shortly thereafter. BLT has been on the market for less than four years and look at how many resales there have been in that time. The majority of those people lost money when they went to resell. Now that doesn't mean that they're ignorant, but it does support the argument that not every purchase is as well thought out as some would have us believe.

2. How do you explain that BCV is selling for more now resale then it did when it first opened direct?

Simple, it's not. $80 ten years ago is not the same as $80 now. Additionally, the increase in initial pricing of new resorts has significantly outpaced inflation over time, which suggests that not only are the newer resorts more expensive in terms of real dollars, but they are also relatively more expensive as well. Based on this and other evidence in the current market, I feel that a repeat of what happened with the earlier resorts is highly unlikely.

There's something else at work here, too. Last spring, at a time where people were complaining about direct prices, DVD announced a massive impending price increase. All of a sudden the current prices looked like a deal relatively speaking. People raced to call their salespeople in an effort to lock in those "savings". Demand for the "sold out" resorts far exceeded supply, and DVD increased ROFR activity significantly. This led to a price increase in resales as people continued to lose contracts and tried to buy "insurance" against ROFR in the form of increased purchase prices. All this for resorts with roughly half of their life left.

The point is, this has created a bubble of sorts with respect to resale pricing, one that is not likely to continue forever due to the nature of RTU timeshares. VGF came on board after this bubble. The likelihood that it will experience a similar bump in resale prices is not as likely.

That being said, I believe that VGF will track similar to BLT and VGC and less like AKV and SSR. This means that people who buy in initially are likely to be able to get back a large portion of their money should they choose to sell. Of course, a new round of restrictions could change this drastically.

3. Why wouldn't VGF follow the path of BCV and even exceed it?

I hope I'm right about this. I'm new and apparently to lazy to look it up.

I think I addressed this above. But your last statement makes me think that you have been offended by this thread. Please don't be. New members are valuable because they bring a fresh perspective. However, sometimes their ideas reflect a lack of history. It's all good. We were all new once.

 

[Thisdman]

I certainly respect your opinion and your right to disagree, but I'm wondering what you are basing this prediction on.

I think the closest comparison to VGF would be VGC and as I posted earlier, I have had success multiple times booking 5-6 nights in a row in any room I wanted (using SSR points). Granted they were in lower demand times, but one was MLK weekend which isn't altogether a low low time. Time will prove which theory is correct, but based on the known history of DVC and the patterns that have been observed over many years, I can say with relative confidence that VGF will be available to non owners during low and even medium demand times.




I don't think it is fair to make sweeping generalizations like this. Everybody is different and some people research their purchases and some buy while they're immersed in the magic only to regret it shortly thereafter. BLT has been on the market for less than four years and look at how many resales there have been in that time. The majority of those people lost money when they went to resell. Now that doesn't mean that they're ignorant, but it does support the argument that not every purchase is as well thought out as some would have us believe.




Simple, it's not. $80 ten years ago is not the same as $80 now. Additionally, the increase in initial pricing of new resorts has significantly outpaced inflation over time, which suggests that not only are the newer resorts more expensive in terms of real dollars, but they are also relatively more expensive as well. Based on this and other evidence in the current market, I feel that a repeat of what happened with the earlier resorts is highly unlikely.

There's something else at work here, too. Last spring, at a time where people were complaining about direct prices, DVD announced a massive impending price increase. All of a sudden the current prices looked like a deal relatively speaking. People raced to call their salespeople in an effort to lock in those "savings". Demand for the "sold out" resorts far exceeded supply, and DVD increased ROFR activity significantly. This led to a price increase in resales as people continued to lose contracts and tried to buy "insurance" against ROFR in the form of increased purchase prices. All this for resorts with roughly half of their life left.

The point is, this has created a bubble of sorts with respect to resale pricing, one that is not likely to continue forever due to the nature of RTU timeshares. VGF came on board after this bubble. The likelihood that it will experience a similar bump in resale prices is not as likely.

That being said, I believe that VGF will track similar to BLT and VGC and less like AKV and SSR. This means that people who buy in initially are likely to be able to get back a large portion of their money should they choose to sell. Of course, a new round of restrictions could change this drastically.





I think I addressed this above. But your last statement makes me think that you have been offended by this thread. Please don't be. New members are valuable because they bring a fresh perspective. However, sometimes their ideas reflect a lack of history. It's all good. We were all new once.

Thank you for the reply and a thanks to Dean for his too. Things are becoming much clearer. First off I'm basing my prediction on the current rental situation for the studios at VGF. I know it is already very difficult to rent one at 7 months and we are less then 40% sold. It follows then that it would be next to impossible to rent one at 90% sold. It hard to get around this logic and see what others are saying about the reason for this and how it will be available later on(you know a novelty and such). That all makes sense but what makes more sense to me is the additional owners not yet on board, they should overwhelm any vacancies that might exist at 7 months. Now that being said I find it very difficult to argue your own experience at VGC. That is also highly sought after and smaller. So I don't know what to think about future availability but your evidence seems more solid.
Point 2. You are right about my generalizations. Not good. As you pointed out earlier its difficult for me to think about people being careless as I see it with this kind of investment.
Point 3. I know money value changes over time but I can tell you I would be one happy camper if VGF is reselling at $180/ pt in 10 years from now.
Point 4. Your analysis is great. Sounds to me like I paid a premium.
Point 5. I can assure you I have never once been offended by anything in this thread. I think people have been very patient with me and I appreciate it. My last comment was simple a joke, a bad one I know.
Lastly I still have no regrets for buying. One of the big factors we considered was the risk we were incurring. I never thought we could expect to get all of our money back if we decided to sell but I certainly did want to know how much we were risking. I set the estimated property value at $120/ pt in 10 years. I guessed. I think I will be pretty close. That still makes it worth it to us. Thanks again.

 

[Dean]

Thank you for the reply and a thanks to Dean for his too. Things are becoming much clearer. First off I'm basing my prediction on the current rental situation for the studios at VGF. I know it is already very difficult to rent one at 7 months and we are less then 40% sold. It follows then that it would be next to impossible to rent one at 90% sold. It hard to get around this logic and see what others are saying about the reason for this and how it will be available later on(you know a novelty and such). That all makes sense but what makes more sense to me is the additional owners not yet on board, they should overwhelm any vacancies that might exist at 7 months. Now that being said I find it very difficult to argue your own experience at VGC. That is also highly sought after and smaller. So I don't know what to think about future availability but your evidence seems more solid.

It's all good, our goal really is to help even if the wording doesn't portray that very well at times. I think the info you're basing this on is in part hype and in part is far too limited a timeframe to make sweeping judgements/predictions. We've seen the new never get into resort before and while there are some differences for VGF, there are FAR more similarities. The reason I believe it will get easier (just not easy) long term and not more difficult is that currently you've got all the owners there wanting to use their points there and they got extra points on the buy in if they bought mid UY. This will happen for a couple of years, basically a couple of years (3 years for the time reserved) after sell out because there will be new owners along. You've also got all the current owners looking to get in and try it, as those that really want to do so either are continually unsuccessfully, or get to try it, they will lose interest to a degree. Things will settle out about 3 years after sell out, same as it did for SSR which is when it's maximum impact on the 7 month window occurred from what I could tell. And I do believe SSR's demand experience is very applicable but in reverse.

While I don't normally spend a lot of time with DVC trying to get elusive options that I can't access at 11 months out, I do consistently and repeatedly with timeshare exchanges. I learn the system, plan far in advance and I'm willing to get up early every morning in many cases. I've snagged a silk purse with a sow's ear many times usually trading up in resort qualify, unit size and season all. There are ways for those in the know to be successful though in the know also adds reality to the equation.

One thing that really hasn't been brought up, unless I missed it, is that really the only way to be consistently successful renting is to reserve first at 11 months out then offer as a rental. Even if it's only as difficult as I think it will be and a little less than some do, this will still be needed to use these points in rental for VGF consistently. And while I have no problem with that, some members do.

 

[ELMC]

Dean,

We've seen a lot of comments in this thread about the demand for VGF as it relates to the percentage of units sold. Can you please talk a little about how DVD makes units available for rental as the resort continues to sell? I know you'll do a much better job at it than I will, and I think it's an important point. Thanks!