VGF worth the Money ? Why I think YES!!!

[VGF Ben]

Remember what I said about people not doing their due diligence?

TVM doesn't exactly work that way, chuck....FYI...plus you used half of that surplus to rent at VGF in Dean's example.

Somebody's not paying attention.....

 

[Dean]

You see, Dean, here's the real kicker....If I buy 100 points at VGF for $15k and you buy 100 points at SSR for $6500, in 20 years, You've paid $8500 less than I have...a drop in the bucket compared to the total of vacation costs for those 20 years, but you've paid ADDITIONAL CASH to stay at the VGF a couple of times, whereas I've been staying every year, or every other year, at the Grand! Oh, and how much were your VGF rental stays costing you? $3000?....that difference gets smaller all the time.....

That's the value, my friend. See I don't want to waste my time farting around with schemes to find availability at better resorts, having to rent a car for every trip because that's the only efficient way to get around....all so I can save what in the grand scheme of even HALF the length of this 50 year contract, a pittance of money...by buying cheap and trying to trade up.

In 20 years that $8500 is worth somewhere in the range of $40K or more total and maybe $20K adjust for inflation. All of those dollars not spent can be looked at for long term investment purposes in this scenario. Plus another maybe $4.5K in maint fee differences or $2200 after inflation (the spread currently will not remain), I used $1 per point difference which is clearly a guess but I believe is a valid amount to look at. Plus one may not not need as many SSR points to accomplish the same LOS at other resorts. I don't think anyone would buy SSR expecting to use those points consistently at VGF, at least I hope not.

 

[VGF Ben]

chuck....I'm not getting your math either. What's the riddle?

Chuck thinks he's smarter than everyone else....not really, Chuck...

TVM is a silly argument when a week staying cash discounted at VGF for my upcoming stay was close to $9k....how much was SSR?

Should we go there?

 

[VGF Ben]

In 20 years that $8500 is worth somewhere in the range of $40K or more total and maybe $20K adjust for inflation. All of those dollars not spent can be looked at for long term investment purposes in this scenario. Plus another maybe $4.5K in maint fee differences or $2200 after inflation (the spread currently will not remain), I used $1 per point difference which is clearly a guess but I believe is a valid amount to look at. Plus one may not not need as many SSR points to accomplish the same LOS at other resorts. I don't think anyone would buy SSR expecting to use those points consistently at VGF, at least I hope not.

Dean? $4.5k in maint fee differences? Care to elaborate? You like chuck failed to factor in the CASH purchased VGF like you suggested....

Then shall we factor in the savings vs. cash to stay at our respective resorts? You can't have it all ways Dean....Bottom line, there is very little cash difference in the end. Paying cash for stays, neither the 6500 nor the 15000 would make it past year 6, so TVM can't be continued....

 

[chukdotcom]

TVM doesn't exactly work that way, chuck....FYI...plus you used half of that surplus to rent at VGF in Dean's example.

Somebody's not paying attention.....

Now you are double counting Dean's cash purchases. Remember, you listed those separately.

 

[VGF Ben]

I'm going to bed.

I know this....I'm staying at VGF for a week in April during premium season. It would have cost me about $5k cash discounted....typo earlier. So I'm 10k in the hole...that starts to go down very quickly at that rate....

But I'm staying there....and each time I stay after this, I'll be staying there....and that's my value....and beyond a shadow of a doubt, it is saving me money...and will be tangible value down the road if I choose to rent for several years in a row, then sell....if I ever came to that point.

It's a complete no brainer....

 

[VGF Ben]

Now you are double counting Dean's cash purchases. Remember, you listed those separately.

I don't have an inclination to walk you through this, Chuck....

 

[chukdotcom]

I'm going to bed.

I know this....I'm staying at VGF for a week in April during premium season. It would have cost me about $5k cash discounted....typo earlier. So I'm 10k in the hole...that starts to go down very quickly at that rate....

But I'm staying there....and each time I stay after this, I'll be staying there....and that's my value....and beyond a shadow of a doubt, it is saving me money...and will be tangible value down the road if I choose to rent for several years in a row, then sell....if I ever came to that point.

It's a complete no brainer....

You appear to have outsmarted Disney.

 

[chukdotcom]

I don't have an inclination to walk you through this, Chuck....

I'm sure you don't...

 

[chukdotcom]

It's a complete no brainer....

Then why is Disney selling it? Kindness of their heart? Or do they have no brains?

 

[Dean]

Dean? $4.5k in maint fee differences? Care to elaborate? You like chuck failed to factor in the CASH purchased VGF like you suggested....

Then shall we factor in the savings vs. cash to stay at our respective resorts? You can't have it all ways Dean....Bottom line, there is very little cash difference in the end. Paying cash for stays, neither the 6500 nor the 15000 would make it past year 6, so TVM can't be continued....

I used $1 difference in fees which I think will be conservative long term, invested the difference at 8% and used 4% inflation, conservative numbers in my book. I didn't factor in paying cash for an occasional VGF trip, didn't know that'w where we were going. 100 points at VGF will get you between 3-5 days per year with one weekend day with maybe 1 extra day every 2-3 years only if you go low season. You'd only need maybe 60 SSR points if you wanted to get the same number of days but rent VGF every 4 years. You can run the match on the TVM differences from the 100 vs 100 comparison above. Rental of VGF at say $1400-1500 each time, still far less than the difference if you invested the differences, even if you took the VGF rental out of the same pool. I realize you can spin these type of numbers about any way you want but it gives you an idea of the relative costs of each depending on how an individual would use it. This comparison also assumes that one always used the points at VGF, any variation from that assumption quickly removed value in favor of the SSR purchase.

Worst case scenario is I'm completely wrong and now one gets into VGF ever. In that case I'll just have to console myself with my many exchanges in to DVC, HI OF trips, Aruba OF trips, HHI OF trips and our Summer Gatlinburg options just to name a few of my failures to understand the process.

 

[ELMC]

Even better....VGF is SMALLER than VGC...and the flagship of WDW...unquestionably....

The information on the DVC Resource Center thread would suggest otherwise.

http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2823943 Post #3

VGF has size, reputation, amenities, accommodations, transportation....all in its favor....that contributes to its value equation. And that is something that most of you are not taking into account. You're treating it like it were just any other resort and it clearly isn't....not because I own there, but because it's the truth. It's why I bought there. Its a great value proposition.

As VGF fills and its difficulty to book becomes more known, its value will rise even more.

I'm not sure how you are defining value here. I think most would agree that VGF are the most luxurious villas in the DVC system and the location has at least as much and sometimes much more to offer than other DVC locations. But the price of entry is roughly double the price of resale at other resorts and the point requirements to stay there more or less follow that ratio as well. So yes, I agree, that the VGF are amazing, but I'm not sure that there is any value in staying there. To me it seems like a "you get what you pay for" proposition.

That being said, I think you're being taken down a road that you don't need to go down, and in the process missing the opportunity to make a convincing argument that I have not seen on this thread (I apologize if it's been posted and I missed it). The value of owning at VGF is not just the ability to book at the 11 month window. It's the security one gets from having that ability. I typically plan my Disney vacations a year in advance and I almost always stay at BLT standard view and/or BWV BW view (two very high demand booking categories). I own at both resorts. So I know that barring extreme circumstances, I will be able to stay there almost any time I want to vacation there (given my planning practices). That in and of itself has value, regardless of whether or not I actually book the room.

Going back to the original question of whether or not VGF is worth it, I can clearly see that you think it is, Ben. The only argument you need to make is that if you compare the purchase of VGF to any other reliable option of staying there, you will be saving money by purchasing. Everything else is speculative and anecdotal. The fact is that there will be many people for whom purchasing VGF is not worth it. They will trade the points in exchanges, use them to stay at other resorts, rent them out at market rates and not a premium and even let them expire. All these things do happen, and I think it's a bit unwise to assume that VGF will be any different.

The problem I'm seeing is that you are projecting your experience and desires onto all other purchasers. Yes, you researched your purchase. Yes, it made sense to you. Yes, you are going to extract every bit of value from every point by staying at the VGF and booking at the 11 month window to insure that you will get what you want. But based on what I know about timeshares in general and DVC specifically, not everyone will behave in such a fashion.

Ok I get it. As a VGF owner I stand to lose more then non VGF owners would lose. The caveat here is this only applies if I can't get into my home resort. Which brings me to the meat of the question. Can I expect not to get in? My question was specific "at 11 months". I mean to the day not in your qualifier of months 7-11. Do you still think more then half get turned away on that day? Anyone who waits past that day has a lot less to complain about since they waited and were beat out by other owners. It seems to me that if this number truly is over 50% disney would have a heck of a time trying to sell to people who are locked into vacationing at the busy times and can use their investment less then half the time.

What you suggest here is not out of the realm of possibility. Savvy owners stepped in and bought the fixed week option for the high demand weeks very early in the offering period. On top of that, there will be a higher number of people trying to book those weeks and many will walk reservations. The DVC system is structured so that every owner of a home resort can have nights at that resort equal to their point ownership every year. Unfortunately, it's not that clean and we know that certain weeks are in higher demand. Because of this, many people will be shut out during the first week of December. I don't think it's a problem that DVD is particularly worried about.

Again people, please quantify. What exactly do you mean by "a very large portion"? I agree that there are people out there that buy for all kinds of lousy reasons but I also think that MOST consider all options before making such decisions.

If you look at the number of registered members here on the DIS and compare that to the number of DVC owners at large, you will find that we here on the DIS comprise a very small percentage of DVC owners. And even here you see people with wildly differing opinions and levels of research or planning regarding their DVC purchase. Given the nature of timeshare sales in general, I would respectfully disagree with your assertion that most people consider their options before making a purchasing decision. It sounds like you did, but I would suggest that you are actually in the minority.

Right, Chuck....well, thank you for deigning to grace us with your elusive magical "knowledge".....we'll see how it shakes out. Talk to me in 4 years.....

This isn't rocket science, my friend.... it's simple supply and demand. If you understand those concepts, it's not too hard to figure out the rest. The history of DVC pricing is a matter of public record. There's no secret keys to the knowledge....it's all out there for us to see....

Beach Club right now is climbing in price, more each week....why? Because people can't stay there when they want....

BLT is still selling resale for at or near where it was originally offered (mid 90's with incentives)...and that is a much more available DVC property.....

Ben, I think that your analysis here is missing something. The nature of DVC has changed. Without turning this into a statistical circus, DVC is more expensive now than it was in the earlier years. I'm not only talking about real dollars here, but relative dollars based on historical inflation rates. At it's inception DVC was an unknown and DVD needed to heavily incentivize people to purchase. People who bought OKW or BWV during the early years can very easily make a significant profit on their purchase if they were to sell now. People who bought BCV, VWL or BLT at inception can pretty much break even. However, people who bought BLT after year one or bought SSR or AKV at any point in time are in the red on their purchase. Same can be said for anybody who has bought and tried to sell VGF. Will that change in time? Perhaps. A case can be made that in five years VGF will be on the resale market for either more or less than its initial offering price. There is plenty of evidence to support either hypothesis. However, neither is guaranteed and I think it is risky to make buying decisions now based on predictions of what will happen with something as risky as timeshare pricing in the future.

Bringing it back to the main point, the analysis one should consider using when asking whether or not something is worth it involves looking at the cost of the alternatives and determining if the value of those alternatives plus the monetary differential are less than, equal to or more than the item you are considering purchasing. The short answer is that if you plan on staying at the Grand Floridian every year or every other year for the reasonable future, purchasing DVC may very well be the most economical way to do so. But one should be aware that there are many variables and pitfalls that can compromise the integrity of this analysis. The more one avoids them, the truer the results will be.

I know this was long. Thanks to anyone who read all (or even part) of it.

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

I have to agree with Ben that- I don't feel that MOST people who buy in direct are stupid or ignorant...

Reasons why:

1. we live in a world people can google DVC on their cell phones.. Thus pulling up the resale market..

2. I believe The lower 99% of people are much more careful with their money since 2009..
And would at least a little research before dropping $15k on anything..

3. I really doubt that when people buy in, that was the 1st time they have heard about DVC..

4. We all get the 10 day window to cancel our purchase.. A type of cool off period.. Everyone has this chance..

5. I think people value things differently...
The full 50 years means a lot to us.. Not so much to others..
If I was ok with staying at SSR every time, than I would have bought there..
We waited 5-6 years to buy in b/c we didn't like the other DVC resort.. And I knew I would regret not buy into VGF why we had the chance..


I think the reasons why we see people regret their purchase is
1. They fall on hard times.. It now has become a burden
2. Didn't use it like they thought they would.. Not even the best planner can plan 50 years out

Both these are not b/c they were stupid or ignorant.. Just facts of life..

 

[chukdotcom]

The information on the DVC Resource Center thread would suggest otherwise.

http://disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2823943 Post #3



I'm not sure how you are defining value here. I think most would agree that VGF are the most luxurious villas in the DVC system and the location has at least as much and sometimes much more to offer than other DVC locations. But the price of entry is roughly double the price of resale at other resorts and the point requirements to stay there more or less follow that ratio as well. So yes, I agree, that the VGF are amazing, but I'm not sure that there is any value in staying there. To me it seems like a "you get what you pay for" proposition.

That being said, I think you're being taken down a road that you don't need to go down, and in the process missing the opportunity to make a convincing argument that I have not seen on this thread (I apologize if it's been posted and I missed it). The value of owning at VGF is not just the ability to book at the 11 month window. It's the security one gets from having that ability. I typically plan my Disney vacations a year in advance and I almost always stay at BLT standard view and/or BWV BW view (two very high demand booking categories). I own at both resorts. So I know that barring extreme circumstances, I will be able to stay there almost any time I want to vacation there (given my planning practices). That in and of itself has value, regardless of whether or not I actually book the room.

Going back to the original question of whether or not VGF is worth it, I can clearly see that you think it is, Ben. The only argument you need to make is that if you compare the purchase of VGF to any other reliable option of staying there, you will be saving money by purchasing. Everything else is speculative and anecdotal. The fact is that there will be many people for whom purchasing VGF is not worth it. They will trade the points in exchanges, use them to stay at other resorts, rent them out at market rates and not a premium and even let them expire. All these things do happen, and I think it's a bit unwise to assume that VGF will be any different.

The problem I'm seeing is that you are projecting your experience and desires onto all other purchasers. Yes, you researched your purchase. Yes, it made sense to you. Yes, you are going to extract every bit of value from every point by staying at the VGF and booking at the 11 month window to insure that you will get what you want. But based on what I know about timeshares in general and DVC specifically, not everyone will behave in such a fashion.



What you suggest here is not out of the realm of possibility. Savvy owners stepped in and bought the fixed week option for the high demand weeks very early in the offering period. On top of that, there will be a higher number of people trying to book those weeks and many will walk reservations. The DVC system is structured so that every owner of a home resort can have nights at that resort equal to their point ownership every year. Unfortunately, it's not that clean and we know that certain weeks are in higher demand. Because of this, many people will be shut out during the first week of December. I don't think it's a problem that DVD is particularly worried about.



If you look at the number of registered members here on the DIS and compare that to the number of DVC owners at large, you will find that we here on the DIS comprise a very small percentage of DVC owners. And even here you see people with wildly differing opinions and levels of research or planning regarding their DVC purchase. Given the nature of timeshare sales in general, I would respectfully disagree with your assertion that most people consider their options before making a purchasing decision. It sounds like you did, but I would suggest that you are actually in the minority.



Ben, I think that your analysis here is missing something. The nature of DVC has changed. Without turning this into a statistical circus, DVC is more expensive now than it was in the earlier years. I'm not only talking about real dollars here, but relative dollars based on historical inflation rates. At it's inception DVC was an unknown and DVD needed to heavily incentivize people to purchase. People who bought OKW or BWV during the early years can very easily make a significant profit on their purchase if they were to sell now. People who bought BCV, VWL or BLT at inception can pretty much break even. However, people who bought BLT after year one or bought SSR or AKV at any point in time are in the red on their purchase. Same can be said for anybody who has bought and tried to sell VGF. Will that change in time? Perhaps. A case can be made that in five years VGF will be on the resale market for either more or less than its initial offering price. There is plenty of evidence to support either hypothesis. However, neither is guaranteed and I think it is risky to make buying decisions now based on predictions of what will happen with something as risky as timeshare pricing in the future.

Bringing it back to the main point, the analysis one should consider using when asking whether or not something is worth it involves looking at the cost of the alternatives and determining if the value of those alternatives plus the monetary differential are less than, equal to or more than the item you are considering purchasing. The short answer is that if you plan on staying at the Grand Floridian every year or every other year for the reasonable future, purchasing DVC may very well be the most economical way to do so. But one should be aware that there are many variables and pitfalls that can compromise the integrity of this analysis. The more one avoids them, the truer the results will be.

I know this was long. Thanks to anyone who read all (or even part) of it.

Thanks for the well thought out post.

 

[Thisdman]

Most? Most people can't even find their way to this board. And many of those who do come on saying "I just bought DVC on a cruise I was on. I was told all resorts are sold out and only VGF is available".

There is a reason why timeshares have the stigma that they do.

And by "very large portion", I mean "almost everyone". You can't take the people here as a representative sample. They are a tiny fraction of DVC buyers. For the people that do make it here (and other places likes this), I DO think many of them do their due diligence.

We could not disagree more on this. I find it illogical to assume most people impulse buy a $30000 purchase in some cases and more. You seem far to smart to believe such nonsense. The internet has been around now for more then a few days and almost everyone knows how to do a simple search. People are not going to buy this drivel.

 

[Thisdman]

Some were stupid. Some were smart.
Some knew what they were doing. Some did not.

Wait a second. Didn't you just say that most people, almost all of them I think you said, are uninformed impulse buyers?

 

[gray52]

We could not disagree more on this. I find it illogical to assume most people impulse buy a $30000 purchase in some cases and more. You seem far to smart to believe such nonsense. The internet has been around now for more then a few days and almost everyone knows how to do a simple search. People are not going to buy this drivel.

Thisdman... I'll have to assume by this response that DVC is your only timeshare?

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[Thisdman]

Thisdman... I'll have to assume by this response that DVC is your only timeshare?

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

Yes. Our first and only. I know I'm a newbie idiot. There I just saved you a reply.

 

[gray52]

Yes. Our first and only. I know I'm a newbie idiot. There I just saved you a reply.

Nope... A newbie I can agree with... Nothing wrong with that... We all were at some point. I own two Disney DVC's and two non-Disney timeshares. Most people I talk to tell the same story... "We were on vacation... Champaign bottles were popping... We bought in." So... I'm of the opinion, and I have only experience to back up my claim, that the majority of direct buyers buy primarily on emotion and not research... They do little or no research on their $30,000 or more purchase. As crazy as it sounds... I believe it to be true. If you did your due diligence and came to the conclusion that it was right for you, congrats... You're much farther ahead than most.
To get a better idea, head over to the TUG boards... Horror stories galore!

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

 

[Thisdman]

Nope... A newbie I can agree with... Nothing wrong with that... We all were at some point. I own two Disney DVC's and two non-Disney timeshares. Most people I talk to tell the same story... "We were on vacation... Champaign bottles were popping... We bought in." So... I'm of the opinion, and I have only experience to back up my claim, that the majority of direct buyers buy primarily on emotion and not research... They do little or no research on their $30,000 or more purchase. As crazy as it sounds... I believe it to be true. If you did your due diligence and came to the conclusion that it was right for you, congrats... You're much farther ahead than most.
To get a better idea, head over to the TUG boards... Horror stories galore!

Sent from my iPad using DISBoards

Ok thanks. I'll look at those boards tomorrow. This wouldn't be the first time I was wrong. I can't buy a $30 watch without finding out if it's a good deal. We researched and questioned for months. We really have no plan to ever stay anywhere else and we never go at peak season. To be honest there will be times we go and never even go into the parks. We're resort people and this is where we want to stay.