TSM standby-less test Oct. 6-9

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:lmao:
It's a wonder Roy outlived his brother, considering how many sleepless nights he probably had trying to figure out where to find the money for Pinocchio and Fantasia.


Wait times at TSM look to be about 75 minutes, instead of the very efficient 55 minutes FP+ only netted, so I think it's over.

Thanks for the wait times. 75 minutes for SB doesn't sound all that out of the ordinary for TSMM. But at least people have the choice again to wait it out.

Yes, Roy seemed to be the one to live with the stress of obtaining and also making payments on the massive (for those days) loans, while Walt played with his toy trains and dreamed. I can't remember if it was mentioned that Roy smoked, but Walt was definitely a chain-smoker for much of his life.
 
Unfortunately, the more they do that, the more onsite will pay, probably via reductions in discounts, which we know is one of the goals as well.

Starting discounts was a terrible decision for long term. Once you start, it's very difficult to take away. I remember back in the day- you called, you made your reservations and if you were lucky you got a AAA discount or a discount from your ---ack!! ***what was the name of that club you could join???*** The memory sucks...

At any rate- there were virtually no discounts. I understand why they started it, but pretty sure they'd love to do away with them now. Honestly, I liked it better.

They either reduce rates or they increase incentives at least for the high $$$ resorts. They want more on site guests, they're going to have to give more. I don't think prices are going to get cut, I think they're going to increase incentives.

They could increase emh- an hour in the morning is pitiful. They could include anytime fp+- wouldn't have to give many- 1 from each park is decent enough. There are lots of things they could give that wouldn't take away from off site guests. It would probably still tick some off site guests off, but you get what you pay for. Off site gets a home for $1500 a week, on site gets a single room for 3 times that or more. It's not balanced.

I simply disagree that everyone's park experience is guaranteed to be, or should be, the same. You get what you pay for.
 
First of all, yes they are releasing more FP+'s. From a mathematical perspective taken to the extreme, if the park handed out 100% of the rides capacity in FP+ and the ride ran at 100% of capacity, with a one hour return window, one would expect an average wait of a half an hour with a variance equal to the variance of the arrival rate. The trouble is variances in the capacity wouldn't average out they would be additive. If the load time slows because some needs a little extra time the line would get a little longer and stay a little longer on average. If a seat went empty, the same thing. The load crew is running a little slow. You get the picture. So you can't run at 100%. But, the further you get away from 100% the greater the risk you'll have the ride running empty (assuming the goal is all FP+ no SB).

Early on in the test there was talk of people basically walking through an empty queue. With the hourly dumps of FP+'s into the pool they could have experimenting with managing those forces. Dumping this many FP+'s does what to the return line. With the goal of managing either an all FP+ attraction or at least an all FP+ side of an attraction with a semi-predictable return time. For example they could have the goal of releasing 70% of capacity in FP+ in advance, 20% day of + or - 5% depending on operations. If the return line is getting to long the hourly dumps would be smaller. If the return line is short or non existent they could release more. With the goal of trying to maintain an average 10 minute return line.

FP+ is geared for micro managing the queues and they could get very predictable wait times but you still need guest participation to make it work. Dumping FP+ into the pool every hour does no good if people aren't or can't grab them. Hopefully they are realizing that SB is still a great option.
 

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Starting discounts was a terrible decision for long term........They either reduce rates or they increase incentives at least for the high $$$ resorts. They want more on site guests, they're going to have to give more. I don't think prices are going to get cut, I think they're going to increase incentives.

Very true. In the absence of tangible value, discounts are necessary to create the illusion.
 
Starting discounts was a terrible decision for long term. Once you start, it's very difficult to take away. I remember back in the day- you called, you made your reservations and if you were lucky you got a AAA discount or a discount from your ---ack!! ***what was the name of that club you could join???*** The memory sucks...

At any rate- there were virtually no discounts. I understand why they started it, but pretty sure they'd love to do away with them now. Honestly, I liked it better.

They either reduce rates or they increase incentives at least for the high $$$ resorts. They want more on site guests, they're going to have to give more. I don't think prices are going to get cut, I think they're going to increase incentives.

They could increase emh- an hour in the morning is pitiful. They could include anytime fp+- wouldn't have to give many- 1 from each park is decent enough. There are lots of things they could give that wouldn't take away from off site guests. It would probably still tick some off site guests off, but you get what you pay for. Off site gets a home for $1500 a week, on site gets a single room for 3 times that or more. It's not balanced.

I simply disagree that everyone's park experience is guaranteed to be, or should be, the same. You get what you pay for.

I agree with you. I think having the experience in the parks be equal for everyone was better for everyone, but whatever makes the most profit will win. Ah well, it was a good run having every ticket be equal.

The one point I would add is that the more they differentiate the onsite park experience from the offsite experience, the more onsite is going to pay (even via a reduction of discounts).

So maybe people who stay onsite should be careful what they wish for ;)
 
Very true. In the absence of tangible value, discounts are necessary to create the illusion.

Instead, looks like they're picking Option C - converting a measurable portion of deluxe rooms to DVC units for sale.

Decrease inventory in order to keep rates up while (corporately) reaping the short term benefits of cash up front, lower inventory for occ rate, the reduction in expense, etc.

Much more in line with their corporate M.O., unfortunately.....
 
Hey guys. I've been getting audited all week; did well but stayed busy. What did I miss? I see the metro caveman doing math, that can't be good. :teacher:
 
FP+ is geared for micro managing the queues and they could get very predictable wait times but you still need guest participation to make it work. Dumping FP+ into the pool every hour does no good if people aren't or can't grab them. Hopefully they are realizing that SB is still a great option.

That being said, I'm not convinced TSMM or Soarin' is the final home for this. I'm wondering if the final home might be in Norway and the new Frozen ride. If Disney keeps the Maelstrom ride system and queue line, the current queue won't hold the current Frozen frenzy. I could see Disney initially attempting to operating the ride as FP+ only until the frenzy died down. The article earlier talked about 6 hours lines. At Disney only A&E in Norway has hit that level outside of NYE. They tested the Virtual queue concept for Dumbo that opening in 2012 on RnR in 2009. So, it's not unheard of to test concepts years before their final implementation and to have them happen somewhere else.
 
That being said, I'm not convinced TSMM or Soarin' is the final home for this. I'm wondering if the final home might be in Norway and the new Frozen ride. If Disney keeps the Maelstrom ride system and queue line, the current queue won't hold the current Frozen frenzy. I could see Disney initially attempting to operating the ride as FP+ only until the frenzy died down. The article earlier talked about 6 hours lines. At Disney only A&E in Norway has hit that level outside of NYE. They tested the Virtual queue concept for Dumbo that opening in 2012 on RnR in 2009. So, it's not unheard of to test concepts years before their final implementation and to have them happen somewhere else.

I have thought this all along. And they would need to know early in the planning stages how much queue space to make, so I think the timing works.

He can work it off by scheduling his FP+ at Splash, followed by Space Mtn, followed by Big Thunder. :)

We might all need to do that to work off our churros and pi now that we don't need fastpass runners. ;)
 
He can work it off by scheduling his FP+ at Splash, followed by Space Mtn, followed by Big Thunder. :)

Legacy FP was inarguably better for this. You had to "run" everywhere! Uphill! Both ways! In the snow! While fighting off a (country) bear!
 
We had dinner with four other families last night (here for a family wedding) and compared notes on our experiences this past week.

1. PP is entirely correct, the churros are better and easier to find at DL. I suspect DW knows that their churros are inferior, and that is why they hide them so well. Another family reported that they received free popcorn at EPCOT one afternoon, in the same way (answer a trivia question correctly, get free item). Maybe it's a new thing?

2. I'm comfortable with asking the CM to explain the TSMM mess to my kids. I'm the bad guy with them all the time, but this one wasn't on me. I spent a TON of time, like an embarrassing amount of time, planning this vacation. I read Mesaboy's threads from beginning to end. I stalked cancellation threads here. I read blog post after blog post. I'm NOT going to take the fall with my kids for something DISNEY messed up. If a CM can apologize to me for the inconvenience, he can for darn sure apologize and explain things to my kids. They are his customers as well. And they aren't preschoolers. Mine are 6, 8, and 9 (now 10, birthday girl!). They are more than capable of hearing his explanation and accepting his apology (or refusing to accept it) without throwing a tantrum at him. Being SAD about something is not the same as screaming and behaving badly. These kids are one of Disney's target markets. My kids saved their very stingy allowance for more than two months to have extra Mickey Money for this trip. If they are going to pull this crap, they should be prepared to explain themselves to many different demographic groups, not just put up a sign and shrug their shoulders while yelling at people to move along.

3. I didn't expect to ride TSMM 3 times SB. I expected to ride it ONCE SB, maybe twice if we got lucky. Then to use a FP later that day. I think that's a reasonable expectation. I can't believe anyone thinks otherwise. If the ride breaks down, that's a different thing. This was a planned outage by Disney. They probably knew about it for weeks ahead of time. If they had announced it, I would have changed my touring plans. It comes down to them treating ME like I'm lucky to be there and should take whatever they give me. Like I should thank them for taking my money. Not like a customer that THEY are lucky to have. It's customer service turned on it's head, it's arrogant. And absolutely not fair.

4. My children will be attending Cal like their Mama, or perhaps talking their grandfather into paying for Notre Dame, so your hypothetical Princeton admissions officer is safe from my wrath. But it wouldn't surprise me if one of them wanted to go to UCLA, for easy access to those wonderful, warm churros in DL. I will of course disown them if they choose Stanford or USC.

5. FP+ worked pretty well in MK for everyone in our large group. We had all done our homework, and stayed onsite, though. There are enough FP attractions to spread out the demand. I am cautiously optimistic that once they allow you to book additional FP from your phone, and perhaps more than one at a time, it will work. The kiosks are so clunky, I just don't believe they intend to keep them there for long. It has to be temporary. That's why they aren't on the map. (think positively, dreams do come true)
In addition to the Rider Switch passes we were given, a few of our families saw CMs at SDMT writing out paper tickets for people. We think they were for other rides, not SDMT? Some kind of ride ticket? It happened often enough that several different groups saw it. Not sure what that was about, replacing a FP, maybe?

6. FP for the parade was a bit odd for me. We used a FP for MSEP on Saturday, Oct 4. CROWDED day, which I expected. There was a ton of open space around us in the FP area. It was less than 30% full. I felt weird sitting there and watching this press of people up against the ropes. I also felt it put the CMs in a bad position to constantly 'bounce' people who came under the ropes. It was a great place to view the parade, though.

7. FP+ does not work well in any other park. Legacy FP was much much much better at EPCOT. I think it's a wash (stupid TSMM test aside) at DHS. The rush at rope drop can be avoided now, if you book FP later in the day, so that's a positive. But the line for Star Tours was longer than I've seen it (this was on the test day). It definitely pushed the crowd over there. Now, it was never longer than a 15-20 minute line, but for a ride that's normally under 10, it was noticeable. They need a few more attractions to make it work better.

8. LOTs of training everywhere. We encountered a trainee group on the tea cups one morning (which resulted in a lot of empty cups each go-round). Part of our family also stayed at FW and there were trainee bus drivers. One of them blew through an intersection, had to throw the bus in reverse and back up down the road to make his left turn. There were trainees in almost every restaurant we went into in MK.

9. Much more crowded than we expected. I knew Saturday the 4th would be packed, but we were caught off guard by how crowded MK was on the 5th. I expected it to be a down day because of the party. I'm glad Disney extended hours in the MK for the week, it was crazy packed. I don't think I've ever seen it like that, even in the summer. It was difficult getting around with the kids. October is definitely not a slow month anymore. If it ever was.

10. Liked the Magic Bands. Easier than the cards, IMO. They do make it frighteningly easy to spend money, which I think is the point. The younger kids did not like them, though. Too sweaty.

11. Food and Wine really IS that crowded on weekend nights. Holy cow. But Starship was worth it. :)

Sorry for the novel. Just wanting to share our experience because you all helped me SO MUCH with this trip. Off to watch a wedding for a few days. :flower3:
 
Making off site guests happy doesn't have a thing to do with making off site businesses happy. I don't think Disney has any concern for what happens to off site businesses- other than to cut into their take as much as they possibly can.

It was someone else that said something about off-site businesses. I've only talked about Disney trying to keep off-site guest happy too because they need their money also.
 
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