Just to give everyone some math to bolster the idea that things could very possibly start returning at the beginning of the summer...
There are approximately 209 million adults over 18 in the US.
Roughly 40% of the adult population says they won't get the vaccine. That is about the same number that do not get the flu shot.
That leaves roughly 125,475,000 adults who want to get vaccinated.
As of 1/23/2021: 40 million doses have been distributed with 20,500,000 administered.
Biden has set a goal of 150,000,000 doses administered in his first 100 days, which is April 30.
Together, with what has already been distributed, this would equate to 95,500,000 adults receiving 2 doses by April 30.
That's 76% of the adults wanting to get vaccinated by April 30.
Now, with the J&J vaccine coming, if Biden can purchase and get delivered 30 million doses of this vaccine by April 1, then all Americans would theoretically be vaccinated by the end of April, since this is a single dose vaccine. And, I can see the J&J vaccine being distributed to doctor's offices and pharmacies for general vaccination since the efficacy is about the same as the flu shot. This will go to those who are the healthiest and at the lowest risk of serious complications.
We all know that stuff happens. So it is possible that complications arise such issues in the manufacturing process or even batches of the vaccine that need to be discarded for some reason. But... Even if that mark is missed, if we indeed get to 1,500,000 vaccines administered per day, that means another 45,000,000 vaccines administered by the end of May.
The Biden Administration does not want to over promise and under deliver but the numbers are very promising to have all Americans who want it to be vaccinated by the end of May.
From a business perspective, Disney is going to want to get back to normal operations for summer so they can attract the crowds. Once people are vaccinated, they will want to travel. Everyone is tired of being pent up. Heck, look at everyone who travelled over the holidays. But to attract people back, Disney is going to need to offer as much of the normal operations as possible or people will spend their vacations/money elsewhere.
So, I think the target should be mid May to get back to full operations with possibly the mask mandate in place, but ask that all guests provide proof of vaccination.
