Poly Tower Speculation

[Genie+]

I was wondering how many contracts were sold over 150 pts, 200 pts? Not being sarcastic just wonderin.

How many PVB owners currently have enough pts to stay in the 1 & 2 bedrooms if they’re priced pt wise the same as VGF, 150 - 200 pts isn’t going to get you many days there, even every other year that amount doesn’t even get you a week some seasons.

Not disagreeing that it’s a possibility just was wondering if anyone knows the percentage of larger contracts to the smaller ones as PVB being only studios people didn’t really need huge contracts.
I know bungalows but how many people bought enough for a week there? i might be surprised but I’m thinking thats not the normal contract size sold there.

Poly might have lower average contract sizes due to that. Any difference in smaller average means larger pool of owners, who still have the ability to double up. That’s common. Alot of people add-on with smaller contracts with the intention of alternating home resort priorities.

 

[maui22]

I believe the average PVB contract sold back in the 2015-2017 timeframe was around 130 points per dded sold. That's not the median, just the average. Every large contract skewed that slightly higher. Of course, there were also people who split a larger purchase into smaller deeds for various reasons.

Pretty sure this was lower than most resorts.

Likely a number of significant percentage PVB owners would need to add-on if they want to stay in 1BR, 2BR, or GVs. Whether they will or not, Disney likely has a good idea of what PVB owners have told them over the years.

 

[Doberge]

How many PVB owners currently have enough pts to stay in the 1 & 2 bedrooms if they’re priced pt wise the same as VGF, 150 - 200 pts isn’t going to get you many days there, even every other year that amount doesn’t even get you a week some seasons.

Not many! And it's another reason why I can't see a new association. There are many people at Poly who would add-on to have more points to stay in larger units. It'd be a lot easier for Disney to sell a 100-150 point add-on than tell a Poly owner they'll need to sell their existing 100 point contract resale at $145 or whatever and then buy 200-250 points directly +$200.

Only way really around that is to offer existing Poly owners (or all owners) a bigger incentive to make the switch.

 

[cdirazonian]

I believe the average PVB contract sold back in the 2015-2017 timeframe was around 130 points per dded sold. That's not the median, just the average. Every large contract skewed that slightly higher. Of course, there were also people who split a larger purchase into smaller deeds for various reasons.

Pretty sure this was lower than most resorts.

Likely a number of significant percentage PVB owners would need to add-on if they want to stay in 1BR, 2BR, or GVs. Whether they will or not, Disney likely has a good idea of what PVB owners have told them over the years.

Yes definitely, I’d want to add on if it’s the same association.

130 pts & using banked so 260 pts still doesn’t even get me a SV 1 bedroom for a week (using VGF chart) except for in September. And definitely doesn’t get into a 2 bedroom, 130 doesn’t even get me 3 nights there.

I don’t mind using banked or borrowed pts just wouldn’t want to use 3 yrs worth all at once, I need to go more then every 3 yrs there, I’m gonna need more points…if it’s the same association.

 

[cdirazonian]

Not many! And it's another reason why I can't see a new association. There are many people at Poly who would add-on to have more points to stay in larger units. It'd be a lot easier for Disney to sell a 100-150 point add-on than tell a Poly owner they'll need to sell their existing 100 point contract resale at $145 or whatever and then buy 200-250 points directly +$200.

yea I can’t see it either, but who knows they did with WL. They must’ve thought the same thing.

 

[Doberge]

yea I can’t see it either, but who knows they did with WL. They must’ve thought the same thing.

BRV at least has one and two bedrooms. CCV added a few grand villas and cabins that fewer at BRV felt like they were missing out on considering the point requirements. Poly with only studios and bungalows feels incomplete for more people.

 

[Sandisw]

yea I can’t see it either, but who knows they did with WL. They must’ve thought the same thing.

They didn’t have a choice legally with CCV because there was less than 40 years before BRV expired and FL law requires that.

But, no matter the decision, it won’t be because they want to help out the PVB owners. It will be because the data and projections they have show that it will sell better that way.

If they decide that a new association hits all the correct targets, it won’t matter to them if the current PVB owners would not be able to combine new and current points until 7 month….

 

[RichVIII]

Let’s also not forget, when the Blue Card rules changed. Poly was selling 25 points to get the blue card. There could be a lot of folks who that 25 points at Poly 1 is their Blue Card benefit. That could drag that average down. And few folks were buying points for Bungalows.

We love Poly. I think it will be a new association. I know we won’t be in any position, or should I say - my wife won’t allow me to be anymore than 50 or so points. Which is pretty close to worthless and I won’t get any discounts. And by the time I could add on another 50 points, it will be priced much higher. So it makes me wonder if it is worth it.

 

[BamaGuy44]

They didn’t have a choice legally with CCV because there was less than 40 years before BRV expired and FL law requires that.

But, no matter the decision, it won’t be because they want to help out the PVB owners. It will be because the data and projections they have show that it will sell better that way.

If they decide that a new association hits all the correct targets, it won’t matter to them if the current PVB owners would not be able to combine new and current points until 7 month….

I always get a chuckle out of the theories that Poly2 will be the same association to "fix" the fact that PVB is only studios, or because current owners will be mad they won't have access to the tower at 11 months, or some other thing about keeping current owners happy. DVC already has their money. Sure they'd like current owners to add on, but I'd wager most of the points sold at a new resort are to new owners. Could be wrong about that, I wonder if that data is available for RIV.

It could end up being the same, but those definitely won't be the reasons.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

The Disney company needs to start bringing in more money. They are under pressure to get back to turning larger profits. Every little bit helps including DVC. And what would (in my opinion) bring in the max profit from Poly2…and probably all future projects…would be a separate association with extremely aggressive pricing. I think that would get the most cash infused as quickly as possible. They can probably price it somewhere in the 180s a point and based on the name and the presence of the building and sell it like hot cakes. And depending on the desperation, and I do think Disney is starting to get desperate, I can see them at least temporarily pausing the restricted points policy.

Poly2 separate association in the 180s and not restricted would sell that resort out faster than a Mickey bar melts on a hot July day in Hollywood Studios.

 

[KimMcGowan]

I mentioned this before and just found mention of it on another website:

“The original design called for two phases. A five-story building over near Luau Cove with bungalows and the second phase bring another five-story building.”

I do think it is possible that because they had originally planned it to be two phases that could play a pretty big role in the decision to make the new tower part of Poly 1. They probably won’t- but this could be part of the decision.

 

[Sandisw]

I mentioned this before and just found mention of it on another website:

“The original design called for two phases. A five-story building over near Luau Cove with bungalows and the second phase bring another five-story building.”

I do think it is possible that because they had originally planned it to be two phases that could play a pretty big role in the decision to make the new tower part of Poly 1. They probably won’t- but this could be part of the decision.

Yes, there was talk of it when it PVB was first being built. And I would not be surprised if this design isn’t the same or similar to what they discussed.

But so much has changed since then in terms of what DVD has done with the product

It still seems strange if this was to simply be the additional phase, it’s not been announced yet. I get last year.

Hopefully we get an idea soon!

 

[GoingSince1990]

I always get a chuckle out of the theories that Poly2 will be the same association to "fix" the fact that PVB is only studios, or because current owners will be mad they won't have access to the tower at 11 months, or some other thing about keeping current owners happy. DVC already has their money. Sure they'd like current owners to add on, but I'd wager most of the points sold at a new resort are to new owners. Could be wrong about that, I wonder if that data is available for RIV.

It could end up being the same, but those definitely won't be the reasons.

The Disney company needs to start bringing in more money. They are under pressure to get back to turning larger profits. Every little bit helps including DVC. And what would (in my opinion) bring in the max profit from Poly2…and probably all future projects…would be a separate association with extremely aggressive pricing. I think that would get the most cash infused as quickly as possible. They can probably price it somewhere in the 180s a point and based on the name and the presence of the building and sell it like hot cakes. And depending on the desperation, and I do think Disney is starting to get desperate, I can see them at least temporarily pausing the restricted points policy.

Poly2 separate association in the 180s and not restricted would sell that resort out faster than a Mickey bar melts on a hot July day in Hollywood Studios.

You don’t think it would “sell like hot cakes” if it was priced in the $180s but in the same association? With all of the existing PVB owners whose families have outgrown studios eagerly adding on to gain access to the 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms in the tower?

 

[GoingSince1990]

You don’t think it would “sell like hot cakes” if it was priced in the $180s but in the same association? With many of the existing PVB owners whose families have outgrown studios eagerly adding on to gain access to the 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms in the tower?

 

[Jwaire]

Yes, there was talk of it when it PVB was first being built. And I would not be surprised if this design isn’t the same or similar to what they discussed.

Similar in configuration maybe. Unfortunately, it doesn't look anything like the original tower design, which actually fit in with theme.

 

[Sandisw]

Similar in configuration maybe. Unfortunately, it doesn't look anything like the original tower design, which actually fit in with theme.

View attachment 787362

You are right! I didn’t remember it looking like that!

 

[Jwaire]

As I'm digging through Tikiman's Facebook group, I thought this was interesting.



Now, DVC had already announced PVB 1 when he posted this, but look at the order. They've had these planned all along, at least since 2015. The only one they skipped was YC. CBR, of course, became RIV. FW would have been Reflections, but they opted to take over the cabins instead, for now.

 

[intamin]

You don’t think it would “sell like hot cakes” if it was priced in the $180s but in the same association? With all of the existing PVB owners whose families have outgrown studios eagerly adding on to gain access to the 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms in the tower?

It may be tempting for me just to have a larger amount of direct points but if it's the same association I'll likely just end up buying resale and potentially save the money for a different contract down the line whether that's resale/direct. I guess it depends on how much the delta is. If it's the same association I also won't feel pressured to buy in at this time because I can always pick up resale down the road. It is kind of interesting that they were selling PVB not that long ago in March of this year when I was on a trip and they were trying to get me to buy in before my UY.

When they announced CCV, does anyone know if they immediately said it was a different association? I mean I'm sure it was pretty much all but guaranteed given how many years are left on BRV now. I know they immediately announced the same association with VGF.

 

[PolyRob]

As I'm digging through Tikiman's Facebook group, I thought this was interesting.

View attachment 787384

Now, DVC had already announced PVB 1 when he posted this, but look at the order. They've had these planned all along, at least since 2015. The only one they skipped was YC. CBR, of course, became RIV.

Tikiman has great information! I remember the tower render you shared and his map showing Pago Pago (then Rapa Nui) flattened for the additional tower with the lazy river. The original plans showed the pool over by TTC and not the tower replacing Luau Cove.





I wonder what he thinks about the association? OR if he knows from his sources and can't say?

 

[PolyRob]

It may be tempting for me just to have a larger amount of direct points but if it's the same association I'll likely just end up buying resale and potentially save the money for a different contract down the line whether that's resale/direct. I guess it depends on how much the delta is. If it's the same association I also won't feel pressured to buy in at this time because I can always pick up resale down the road. It is kind of interesting that they were selling PVB not that long ago in March of this year when I was on a trip and they were trying to get me to buy in before my UY.

When they announced CCV, does anyone know if they immediately said it was a different association? I mean I'm sure it was pretty much all but guaranteed given how many years are left on BRV now. I know they immediately announced the same association with VGF.

I believe this was the initial announcement? Looks like permits showing cabins popped up first, but I am not seeing an older announcement.

https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/vil...3091-wilderness-lodge-cabins-villas-confirmed