Poly Tower Speculation

[BamaGuy44]

But do they want to "fire-sale" a prime location like Poly? I suspect that if they were considering this, they'd get aggressive on RIV and use it like the old SSR fall-back purchase.

"Can't buy shiny new (but expensive) Poly?, well we've got a great deal over here at RIV..."

I don't think they want initial sales to be seen as a fire sale. Disney has always leaned heavily into the concept of perceived value. They want the product to be seen as world class. Fire sale prices on a brand new MK-adjacent resort would not be a good look. There will be some decent incentives, but nothing crazy IMO. Hope I'm wrong though!

RIV will definitely be the fall back though. Wouldn't surprise me to see some good incentives on it as well when Poly2 goes on sale. RIV direct is definitely my backup plan if Poly2 is the same association or I end up not wanting it for whatever reason.

 

[hockeydad21]

So... I am not so convinced that this is going to be the "slam-dunk" sales event for DVC. It took PVB1 over 2.5 years to sell out and I don't see this selling any faster. Look at how VDH has really slowed down over the past few weeks (there is a thread in the resorts section), and I would wager that property was even more anticipated than this one (acknowledged caveat: I do believe that one of the biggest issues facing VDH is the TAT, and hopefully, that will not be an issue in FL).

Isn't 2.5 years pretty quick when talking about selling 4 million points? That's 1.6 million points being sold per year at PVB vs VGF's 1.1 million per year and Riviera's 935k per year? Granted I haven't done the math for the other resort's points sold per year, but those original PVB sales numbers are strong compared to the current DVC resorts being actively sold.

 

[hockeydad21]

RIV direct is definitely my backup plan if Poly2 is the same association or I end up not wanting it for whatever reason.

Just curious...why would the tower being the same association as PVB prevent you from buying? I can understand people not wanting to buy if it's separate associations, but haven't really heard it from the other perspective. Is there a particular room style you do or do not want? Just sort of thinking that if it's the same association then you theoretically could get exactly what you want every time you book as long as it's being done at the 11 month mark. Of course there could be outliers if you're talking peak holiday weekends, but otherwise you'd have your choice of anything from studios to 1&2 bedrooms to grand villas and even bungalows.

 

[RoseGold]

Just curious...why would the tower being the same association as PVB prevent you from buying?

Obvious downside would be contract length. It would be down to 40 years by then. But DVC has used so many tricks that I can picture it launching at 40 years, even if it's a new association.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Isn't 2.5 years pretty quick when talking about selling 4 million points? That's 1.6 million points being sold per year at PVB vs VGF's 1.1 million per year and Riviera's 935k per year? Granted I haven't done the math for the other resort's points sold per year, but those original PVB sales numbers are strong compared to the current DVC resorts being actively sold.

If my math (and Aulani sales estimate) is right, they’ve sold roughly 75 million points in 30 years. So about 2.5 million per year, give or take. but when Poly 1.1/2.0 goes on sale that could be across as many as 6 resorts initially, VGF (maybe), Aulani, Riviera, and VDH (definitely), plus PVB and FW. Poly 1.1/2.0 will probably sell slowly no matter what just because of the competition internally.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Just curious...why would the tower being the same association as PVB prevent you from buying? I can understand people not wanting to buy if it's separate associations, but haven't really heard it from the other perspective. Is there a particular room style you do or do not want? Just sort of thinking that if it's the same association then you theoretically could get exactly what you want every time you book as long as it's being done at the 11 month mark. Of course there could be outliers if you're talking peak holiday weekends, but otherwise you'd have your choice of anything from studios to 1&2 bedrooms to grand villas and even bungalows.

I wouldn't say I definitely won't buy if it's the same, I'll have to look at pricing, chart, the resort as a whole package and decide. It would be a big negative though IMO. My thinking is I don't want to be competing with all the ridiculous bungalow points at 11 months. For years to come the tower will only be partially allocated to be bookable with points. And all those millions of points will be immediately able to book the tower. Plus the length of contract will be shorter.

Maybe it's not an issue, since PVB owners don't have any trouble booking studios, even though all those points assigned to the bungalows were sold, even though most owners will never book one.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

But do they want to "fire-sale" a prime location like Poly? I suspect that if they were considering this, they'd get aggressive on RIV and use it like the old SSR fall-back purchase.

"Can't buy shiny new (but expensive) Poly?, well we've got a great deal over here at RIV..."

I don't think they want initial sales to be seen as a fire sale. Disney has always leaned heavily into the concept of perceived value. They want the product to be seen as world class. Fire sale prices on a brand new MK-adjacent resort would not be a good look. There will be some decent incentives, but nothing crazy IMO. Hope I'm wrong though!

RIV will definitely be the fall back though. Wouldn't surprise me to see some good incentives on it as well when Poly2 goes on sale. RIV direct is definitely my backup plan if Poly2 is the same association or I end up not wanting it for whatever reason.

The only reason I'm thinking this way is again what I consider the perfect storm of economic slowdown plus Disney brass under pressure...which they are. Even their staunchest apologists have started turning on them. They may not be in a position to snub their noses and say "pay me what I think this shiny new tower is worth." A lot of job security is hanging in the balance the next year or two. And don't underestimate Iger's ego to end his reign on huge profits. That's why he's not leaving now. He needs to give himself some time to end off on a positive note instead of a Hall of Famer that has stayed one season passed his prime.

And DVC is a small cog in the machine but it has been a significant part of their fiscal success traditionally. Let's be real part of my speculation is my own desire to own Poly 2 at a reasonable price! I may be out to lunch on this one. Maybe they start direct at $250 with almost no incentives! But if there was a bet available I would take the Under on 200 after incentives.

 

[hockeydad21]

I wouldn't say I definitely won't buy if it's the same, I'll have to look at pricing, chart, the resort as a whole package and decide. It would be a big negative though IMO. My thinking is I don't want to be competing with all the ridiculous bungalow points at 11 months. For years to come the tower will only be partially allocated to be bookable with points. And all those millions of points will be immediately able to book the tower. Plus the length of contract will be shorter.

Maybe it's not an issue, since PVB owners don't have any trouble booking studios, even though all those points assigned to the bungalows were sold, even though most owners will never book one.

Fair enough. I definitely agree with your last point though. My original thinking after reading your post was 'even with no one ever booking the bungalows, it's still really easy to get studios at poly at 7 months for non-PVB owners.' Which means all of those PVB owners who want something larger than a studio are using their points at other DVC resorts. I would think studios should be pretty safe regardless of association.

Now with that being said, if you're the type of family who always books a 1 or 2 bedroom and are looking to buy into the new tower, then it being the same association would definitely give me some hesitation. I could see that becoming somewhat difficult to secure at the 11 month mark depending on how the new tower is broken down by room categories. You may need some quick fingers at 8am EST!

 

[Sandisw]

Agreed. It's a very nice looking resort, but it just doesn't work. The issue is its drastic deviation from the original buildings. People would love the design of this building as a stand alone resort if it were pretty much anywhere else on Disney property. Sadly it just doesn't fit next to the small tiki-hut-like longhouses. The Imagineers mailed it in on this one.

I too would expect the points chart to be on par with VGF or just ever so slightly lower. I'd be shocked if they made the poly tower's points chart higher than their flagship resort's points chart. I guess you never know though.

I have not studied but some have said there are times when the PVB cost is more? Not by much but enough to start that VGF can be had for less, especially now with resort studios.

 

[Sandisw]

Much agreed and the reason I think they come out with Black Friday style blow it out sales to start. And yes it's fun to watch unfold.

Here is one thing to consider. Thst the rooms will be popular with cash guests…enough so that DVD wont care how long it takes to sell as long as they have that.

IMO, it’s why they have not been that aggressive with RIV incentives, even given the current numbers. The undeclared inventory is popular with cash guests. Why rush?

Look what just happened with July sales for VGF with the offering of the MB program. That extra $22/point to sell back year one points was a win:win. Doesn’t really cost DVD that much to do it either as it’s simply lowering the price but getting inventory back.

It think they will be able to price Poly tower around the $200/point level and it will sell at a decent rate

The other part that is fairly new strategy for them is to have more than one main resort for sale…previously one was almost sold out before a new one came on line.

I think we may be seeing adjustments in the strategy moving forward.

 

[Sandisw]

Just curious...why would the tower being the same association as PVB prevent you from buying? I can understand people not wanting to buy if it's separate associations, but haven't really heard it from the other perspective. Is there a particular room style you do or do not want? Just sort of thinking that if it's the same association then you theoretically could get exactly what you want every time you book as long as it's being done at the 11 month mark. Of course there could be outliers if you're talking peak holiday weekends, but otherwise you'd have your choice of anything from studios to 1&2 bedrooms to grand villas and even bungalows.

For us, we don’t like the current set up at PVB…so, if I am investing in the tower, I don’t want to compete with another 4 million points for whatever rooms are built at 11 months since the inventory tied to those points doesn’t appeal to us.

If it’s rolled in, I will take my chances at 7 months. If I can’t get in as a non owner, then I’ll keep staying at VGF.

For VGF, it was the opposite. I bought in because we had access to the original building. I know that decision has not made some original VGF owners happy knowing that some of woild have never bought had BPK been it’s own association.

I think no matter which way it goes, there are going to be people like me who won’t add on if it’s the same and current owners who won’t add on if it’s new.

For the new buyer, I’d predict the access to the new tower and not the original PVB until 7 months (or vice versa) won’t matter as much to them as it does to us as current owners.

 

[SL6827]

I just don't think that Riviera will be the only DW DVC to get the restrictions.

 

[hockeydad21]

I have not studied but some have said there are times when the PVB cost is more? Not by much but enough to start that VGF can be had for less, especially now with resort studios.

Yeah, this is pretty accurate. The points for studios are pretty much identical for standard view and lake view. There are some months where PVB may be slightly more expensive and then there are other months where VGF is more expensive, so it's sort of a wash. The real difference is in the theme park view resort studios. Those are significantly higher in points, and PVB doesn't have that category even though their lake views are of magic kingdom.

For us, we don’t like the current set up at PVB…so, if I am investing in the tower, I don’t want to compete with another 4 million points for whatever rooms are built at 11 months since the inventory tied to those points doesn’t appeal to us.

That's fair. It's definitely not for everyone as we all have our likes and dislikes, so I can appreciate that. I am curious though if there is something specific you don't like about PVB's current long houses/studios. Is it because they only have studios or is it something else?

 

[Jwaire]

Obvious downside would be contract length. It would be down to 40 years by then. But DVC has used so many tricks that I can picture it launching at 40 years, even if it's a new association.

Vero, Boardwalk, Beach Club, Hilton Head and Boulder Ridge all had less than 50 year leases.

So I'm not surprised either. It used to be par for the course.

 

[Jwaire]

I just don't think that Riviera will be the only DW DVC to get the restrictions.

It won't be either way. Fort Wilderness will be next, followed by whatever they do after. (Yacht Club?)

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah, this is pretty accurate. The points for studios are pretty much identical for standard view and lake view. There are some months where PVB may be slightly more expensive and then there are other months where VGF is more expensive, so it's sort of a wash. The real difference is in the theme park view resort studios. Those are significantly higher in points, and PVB doesn't have that category even though their lake views are of magic kingdom.

That's fair. It's definitely not for everyone as we all have our likes and dislikes, so I can appreciate that. I am curious though if there is something specific you don't like about PVB's current long houses/studios. Is it because they only have studios or is it something else?

We are not big studios people…I have stayed in 1 bedrooms solo..but I don’t like how they are all separate buildings and a walk to the GCH is all outdoors.

We much prefer the tower style and knowing that there will be dining in there is a plus. VGF isn’t a tower but you can get there under a covered walkway which we really like. Of course, like I said, we bought for original building and not resort studios.

Now, we did like the easy walk to TTC…but then again, we split stay and do VGF usually for just MK…and then move to RIV for the rest.

Just not enough there to make it choice…but with the tower having the larger units it will definitely be something we consider,

 

[hockeydad21]

We are not big studios people…I have stayed in 1 bedrooms solo..but I don’t like how they are all separate buildings and a walk to the GCH is all outdoors.

We much prefer the tower style and knowing that there will be dining in there is a plus. VGF isn’t a tower but you can get there under a covered walkway which we really like. Of course, like I said, we bought for original building and not resort studios.

Now, we did like the easy walk to TTC…but then again, we split stay and do VGF usually for just MK…and then move to RIV for the rest.

Just not enough there to make it choice…but with the tower having the larger units it will definitely be something we consider,

That makes sense. PVB is definitely not perfect that's for sure. While my family can definitely make a poly studio work today if we have to, we prefer a 1 bedroom. We'll definitely need a 1 or 2 bedroom (or 2 poly studios) without question in like 3-5 years when kids are a little older.

The compact nature of a tower can definitely be nice if you take your vacations in the summer or rainy season. We tend to go in the winter time, so the elements don't affect us as much. I can definitely appreciate resorts where there's' only 1 bus stop, and you're a quick elevator ride up to your room vs what can seem like a 10-15 minute walk at a resort like Kidani.

 

[RuntheMouse]

RIV will definitely be the fall back though. Wouldn't surprise me to see some good incentives on it as well when Poly2 goes on sale. RIV direct is definitely my backup plan if Poly2 is the same association or I end up not wanting it for whatever reason.

This is our plan as well. Holding out for Poly2 but if the association is the same, we’re adding on more RIV.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I just don't think that Riviera will be the only DW DVC to get the restrictions.

FW will get the restrictions next year, I think no one contests that. And everything thereafter. I still don’t see why they’d handle this differently than they handled VGF.

 

[Jwaire]

The Imagineers mailed it in on this one.

The design firm WATG designed the upcoming Polynesian Tower, not Imagineering.