Poly Tower Speculation

[Genie+]

Buy where you want to stay, stay where you want to eat.

That’s funny

I was always sympathetic to RIV guests unable to get Topolino’s adr. Even if they allowed one reservation per stay before opening to the public I’d think fair to all.

 

[Nursemanit]

Well, but isn't "you won't be able to stay at any new resorts" the same thing?

Poly is not a new resort

 

[KimMcGowan]

If that slide ar DVC meeting was not a mistake, I guess we will find out in a few months at this years meeting.

But, as I have mentioned before, every mention since that slide has avoided the connection to PVB. If that was meant to be a clue, we’d have a few more on purpose slip ups.

I have read all your responses since you said this, and, as usual, I think you are pretty much spot on. However, what if it was actually a mistake? What if they accidentally forgot to erase the part they were trying to keep secret?
Having said that, I have said all along, that slide was in the presentation for a reason, I don’t think it was an accident. Why did they do it? No freaking clue.
Sandi, I think I am right beside you at around 50/50. (Actually I am at 55/45 - which number represents what changes almost daily.)

 

[Sandisw]

Poly is not a new resort

Poly Village Resort is not a new resort location, but Poly tower is new DVC build being added on the property of the Poly Village Resort, and not being built in the current boundaries of PVB.

So, saying that you may be locked out of future DVC resorts and implying that may include the new tower is accurate at this point in time.

Again, they have built two DVCs at the same hotel location…CCV and BRV…so there is no reason to assume they can’t or won’t do it with the tower if they want to do so….

By your logic, CCV should have never been allowed since WL was not a new resort?

I guess I am just curious why you believe it’s an impossibility?

Regardless, would not market something as true until they make it official and no matter what any of us think, they have purposefully chosen not to declare the decision…which means it can go either way.

They certainly didn’t keep us guessing with VGF and didn’t seem to care that people knew resale points would work there.

 

[Sandisw]

I have read all your responses since you said this, and, as usual, I think you are pretty much spot on. However, what if it was actually a mistake? What if they accidentally forgot to erase the part they were trying to keep secret?
Having said that, I have said all along, that slide was in the presentation for a reason, I don’t think it was an accident. Why did they do it? No freaking clue.
Sandi, I think I am right beside you at around 50/50. (Actually I am at 55/45 - which number represents what changes almost daily.)

It is very possible it was just a mistake and someone put it up and should not have…and have worked hard not to make it again. But that still shows they don’t want anyone to know yet.

Personally I think they just like reading the DiS, seeing how much many of us are invested in the discussion, and laughing at us over Mickey bars! Lol

 

[Nursemanit]

Poly Village Resort is not a new resort location, but Poly tower is new DVC build being added on the property of the Poly Village Resort, and not being built in the current boundaries of PVB.

So, saying that you may be locked out of future DVC resorts and implying that may include the new tower is accurate at this point in time.

Again, they have built two DVCs at the same hotel location…CCV and BRV…so there is no reason to assume they can’t or won’t do it with the tower if they want to do so….

By your logic, CCV should have never been allowed since WL was not a new resort?

I guess I am just curious why you believe it’s an impossibility?

Regardless, would not market something as true until they make it official and no matter what any of us think, they have purposefully chosen not to declare the decision…which means it can go either way.

They certainly didn’t keep us guessing with VGF and didn’t seem to care that people knew resale points would work there.

I only comment since you keep jumping in and making your opinion the only one allowed- but there are two possible ways this could go.

You are ignoring that CCV could not legally been combined with BRV due to being less than 40 years.

 

[Sandisw]

I only comment since you keep jumping in and making your opinion the only one allowed- but there are two possible ways this could go.

You are ignoring that CCV could not legally been combined with BRV due to being less than 40 years.

I have always said that being part of the same association is a possibility, regardless of my personal opinion.

Your comment said they can’t call Poly Tower a new resort because Poly isn’t a new resort,

Simply pointing out that there is precedence that it’s been done.

Of course I know that was their only option legally, 40 year minimum, but they still chose to put two resorts at the same location vs choosing a new location that did not have a DVC already

If that wasn’t what you meant, then i misunderstood.

 

[Nursemanit]

Your comment said they can’t call Poly Tower a new resort because Poly isn’t a new resort,

My comment was to someone else’s comment that asking if “ you won’t be able to stay at any new resorts “ means the same as you won’t be able to stay at poly tower- it does not mean the same if they are combining they you would.

And you added words and changed the meaning - adding the words “ they can’t call” to my very short and easy to understand comment to again push your groupthink view.

 

[Sandisw]

My comment was to someone else’s comment that asking if “ you won’t be able to stay at any new resorts “ means the same as you won’t be able to stay at poly tower- it does not mean the same if they are combining they you would.

And you added words and changed the meaning - adding the words “ they can’t call” to my very short and easy to understand comment to again push your groupthink view.

As I just posted, I obviously misunderstood your point. I agree that if it ends up being part of PvB, that statement ends up not being accurate.

But, if it ends up new it is…probably why guides don’t discuss resale in sales pitches unless the buyer brings it up.

And, why this topic is still being discussed because DVD has kept it secret.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

It's funny how WDW is loaded down these days with things that got fixed that weren't broken.

It makes you wonder who thought it was a good idea to roll that snowball to the edge of that huge valley it sat in for 50 years, not bothering anybody, and just push it off the side of the mountain for fun.

"Hey ya'll! Watch this!"

 

[hockeydad21]

The data here from April through now seems to show several contracts being sold in the $130s and $140s…and why I used the figures I did.

There are always going to be contracts that sell for more, and contracts that sell for less....which is why you take the average rather than just the outlying low number. The average resale contract at Poly has consistently been between 155-165 for the past 12 months. There were only 2 months where the average dipped below $153 per point.

 

[Sandisw]

There are always going to be contracts that sell for more, and contracts that sell for less....which is why you take the average rather than just the outlying low number. The average resale contract at Poly has consistently been between 155-165 for the past 12 months. There were only 2 months where the average dipped below $153 per point.

Just wanted to clarify where I got the numbers and since quite a few had been posted, it didn’t appear to be outliers.

But to be fair, I haven’t looked thst close..although a quick look at Fidelity average sales seems to put in in the $140s lately..a big drop from where is was a year ago.

But , even at $150s average amongst all brokers. it’s at least $20 to $30 less than where VGF was averaging when BPK was announced…

DVD will have a bigger hill to climb in pricing for Poly tower, if it’s part of PVB to make people swing to direct like they finally have with VGF.

It’s why i think if we see some ROFR for it, it could be an indication they want to get PVB to get higher so the direct pricing with incentives can overcome the shorter contract and the ability to get it resale, if being part of PVB is what is going to happen.

The other interesting piece is that VDH got a base price of $230 with RIV, AUL and VGF staying at $217. Initially, I figured it was because they would simply do the yearly increase this fall and by time the tower went on sale, all would be in that range.

But, given the earnings call, and the lower price they have had to go with right now to raise direct sales it now seems raising base might not be wise.

Maybe the new incentives in September will give us insight into strategy.

ETA: You also have to wonder if FW cabins being part of the mix now will be playing any role in what is done with Poly tower.

 

[MartyParty]

Just wanted to clarify where I got the numbers and since quite a few had been posted, it didn’t appear to be outliers.

But to be fair, I haven’t looked thst close..although a quick look at Fidelity average sales seems to put in in the $140s lately..a big drop from where is was a year ago.

But , even at $150s average amongst all brokers. it’s at least $20 to $30 less than where VGF was averaging when BPK was announced…

DVD will have a bigger hill to climb in pricing for Poly tower, if it’s part of PVB to make people swing to direct like they finally have with VGF.

It’s why i think if we see some ROFR for it, it could be an indication they want to get PVB to get higher so the direct pricing with incentives can overcome the shorter contract and the ability to get it resale, if being part of PVB is what is going to happen.

The other interesting piece is that VDH got a base price of $230 with RIV, AUL and VGF staying at $217. Initially, I figured it was because they would simply do the yearly increase this fall and by time the tower went on sale, all would be in that range.

But, given the earnings call, and the lower price they have had to go with right now to raise direct sales it now seems raising base might not be wise.

Maybe the new incentives in September will give us insight into strategy.

ETA: You also have to wonder if FW cabins being part of the mix now will be playing any role in what is done with Poly tower.

Being both a Poly and VDH owner, I kinda figured that VDH pricing was mostly based on what the California market demanded. More specifically, no direct VGC for sale, VGC resale ~$300, and no new California DVC options for many years.

Little higher VDH price in the beginning and no need to sell out quickly as DVD would want some type of DVC product on the West Coast for a few years. But all sales marketing speculation on mine and everyone else's part. Fun to do!

 

[Sandisw]

Being both a Poly and VDH owner, I kinda figured that VDH pricing was mostly based on what the California market demanded. More specifically, no direct VGC for sale, VGC resale ~$300, and now new California DVC options for many years.

Little higher VDH price in the beginning and no need to sell out quickly as DVD would want some type of DVC product on the West Coast for a few years. But all sales marketing speculation on mine and everyone else's part. Fun to do!

I bet that definitely played a role. It was just different than previous strategy which priced new resorts base with active selling resorts during the overlap.

But, then again, it just goes to show with DVD, you simply can find the other side of the coin for every decision they make!

 

[maui22]

Being both a Poly and VDH owner, I kinda figured that VDH pricing was mostly based on what the California market demanded. More specifically, no direct VGC for sale, VGC resale ~$300, and now new California DVC options for many years.

Little higher VDH price in the beginning and no need to sell out quickly as DVD would want some type of DVC product on the West Coast for a few years. But all sales marketing speculation on mine and everyone else's part. Fun to do!

VGC success compared to all other DVC made a lot of sense for VDH to be priced higher.

 

[Jwaire]

VGC success compared to all other DVC made a lot of sense for VDH to be priced higher.

Success? They couldn't give that resort away. The incentives were insane. It took it over 18 months to sell out and it's only 50 villas. It's only become a phenomenon in the last few years (likely due to Star Wars, a reimagined DCA and Avenger's Campus).

Fun fact, I remember touring BLT and they offered me VGC as a drop product. It was like ~$90 a point or something crazy. I want to say BLT at the time was like $115 or $120.

VDH is the brainchild of former DVC General Manager and Vice President Ken Potrock. He got that tower built and it's probably the only other DVC going to ever be built at DLR, so better capitalize on it.

 

[maui22]

Success? They couldn't give that resort away. The incentives were insane. It took it over 18 months to sell out and it's only 50 villas. It's only become a phenomenon in the last few years (likely due to Star Wars, a reimagined DCA and Avenger's Campus).

Fun fact, I remember touring BLT and they offered me VGC as a drop product. It was like ~$90 a point or something crazy. I want to say BLT at the time was like $115 or $120.

VDH is the brainchild of former DVC General Manager and Vice President Ken Potrock. He got that tower built and it's probably the only other DVC going to ever be built at DLR, so better capitalize on it.

Resort was a huge success, look at resale price today and difficulty in booking.

If you want to talk about the terrible decision to add over 10 million points to sell at the worst economic time most of us have lived through, that is a failure of DVC in over building without realizing the Great Recession would almost put DVD out of business We were offered that huge deal in 2009 for VGC.

Green lighting over 10 million in new points for sale (AKV Kidani, SSR THV, BLT, and VGC) when some people (even on these boards) bragged about buying SSR points with free points. They went on trip and bragged about saving money on trip and letting Disney foreclose on them.

For those who don’t know the history, DVD used to (not sure anymore) finance all loans through another company. The Great Recession resulted in so many contracts coming back that company stopped financing DVD directly purchased contracts and Disney had to do their own financing.

 

[hockeydad21]

But , even at $150s average amongst all brokers. it’s at least $20 to $30 less than where VGF was averaging when BPK was announced…

You're very much cherry picking data to fit your narrative. VGF was at it's peak in 2021 shortly after the expansion was announced and before direct pricing was announced. People were buying resale in the 190s thinking they were getting a bargain under the assumption that direct pricing would start around 220-230. At that same time Poly was going for $173-183 resale. You keep acting like VGF was in the 190s while Poly was living in the 160s. That couldn't be further from the the truth when you look beyond your cherry picked numbers. VGF's spike to the 190s was due to a combo of a strong market overall (affecting an increase across all DVC properties) and people majorly overplaying their betting hand with VGF's future pricing. Nothing more and nothing less.

Once the direct pricing for VGF came out, the market quickly corrected itself and dropped the monthly average 22 points. VGF hasn't sniffed $180 per point since. That's a market correction if I've ever seen one. Poly's resale has been within 5 or 10 points for most months ever since March 2022.

Note that I don't feel strongly either way. I'm about 60/40 split same association vs new association. I recognize the historical arguments for why this fits into the VGF expansion bucket vs the more recent arguments of bucketing it into the Riviera and VDH camp. I'm just trying to provide data where you're being a little misleading.

 

[Genie+]

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You're very much cherry picking data to fit your narrative. VGF was at it's peak in 2021 shortly after the expansion was announced and before direct pricing was announced. People were buying resale in the 190s thinking they were getting a bargain under the assumption that direct pricing would start around 220-230. At that same time Poly was going for $173-183 resale. You keep acting like VGF was in the 190s while Poly was living in the 160s. That couldn't be further from the the truth when you look beyond your cherry picked numbers. VGF's spike to the 190s was due to a combo of a strong market overall (affecting an increase across all DVC properties) and people majorly overplaying their betting hand with VGF's future pricing. Nothing more and nothing less.

Once the direct pricing for VGF came out, the market quickly corrected itself and dropped the monthly average 22 points. VGF hasn't sniffed $180 per point since. That's a market correction if I've ever seen one. Poly's resale has been within 5 or 10 points for most months ever since March 2022.

Note that I don't feel strongly either way. I'm about 60/40 split same association vs new association. I recognize the historical arguments for why this fits into the VGF expansion bucket vs the more recent arguments of bucketing it into the Riviera and VDH camp. I'm just trying to provide data where you're being a little misleading.

That surprises me. I had been watching resale on and off since before covid. Then I started watching very closely as inventory built up late last year (with an aggregator that tracks 13 brokers). Early this year we zoned in on Poly and VGF intending to buy resale. In my mind I had the spread between $15-20pp. We were trying to get contract size/UY $135-140 Poly or $150-155 VGF. Those values are just what I came up with between the rofr thread and watching the aggregator.

$20 or $30 is a bit of a stretch but honestly I can understand why there seems a gap. I’m not saying I’m right or my methods were correct, just that if felt like $15-$20 difference was there.

Pulling up the aggregator today with Poly and VGF, there are 14 Poly contracts between $135 and $149 and VGF starts at $150 and only goes up.

The rofr thread is quiet this quarter. Last quarter:

VGF: (7 out of 9 are $150 or more, 2/9 are less)
jkmdds4osu---$150-$15803-100-VGF-Aug-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24- sent 3/29, passed 4/12

JZ_LBNY---$155-$17040-100-VGF-Oct-77/22, 200/23, 100/24- sent 3/29, passed 4/13

Kayaddict---$140-$23290-160-VGF-Apr-0/22, 160/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 3/31, passed 4/14

Chirpee---$151-$25059-160-VGF-Aug-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 160/24- sent 4/10, passed 4/27

mlittig---$160-$10800-60-VGF-Dec-60/22, 60/23, 60/24- sent 4/11, passed 4/28

Rbjfamily---$127.77-$23865-180-VGF-Feb-0/22, 29/23, 180/24, 180/25-seller pays MF '23- sent 4/10, passed 4/27

HyperspaceMountainPilot---$150-$20252-125-VGF-Jun-0/22, 201/23, 125/24, 125/25- sent 4/21, passed 5/12

disnid---$165-$16139-90-VGF-Apr-0/22, 177/23, 90/24- sent 5/1, passed 5/23

buzzandzurg---$150-$29071-180-VGF-Jun-0/22, 263/23, 180/24- sent 5/19, passed 6/7

PVB: (7 out of 16 are $135 or less)
RichDVC---$135-$17710-120-PVB-Jun-0/22, 188/23, 19/24- sent 3/23, passed 4/4

hockeymomnh---$150-$23114-150-PVB-Aug-0/22, 150/23, 150/24-Delayed Closing 6/16- sent 3/23, passed 4/4

ccv_fam---$130-$22036-150-PVB-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 150/23, 150/24- sent 4/3, passed 4/12

pkrieger2287---$130-$23635-175-PVB-Feb-0/22, 175/23, 175/24, 175/25- sent 3/28, passed 4/12

BellePoly---$135-$23747-160-PVB-Aug-0/22, 165/23, 160/24- sent 4/7, passed 4/25

Ineedavacation33---$139-$14894-100-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24-$199 closing special- sent 4/3, passed 4/27

Rocky092---$130-$24198-169-PVB-Mar-0/22, 169/23, 169/24- sent 4/12, passed 4/28

sevargas---$130-$18228-135-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 116/23, 135/24-seller pays MF '23- sent 4/3, passed 4/14

Sleighbelle---$135-$34839-250-PVB-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 250/24- sent 4/25, passed 5/16

Galactic Reversal---$150-$21922-135-PVB-Dec-135/22, 135/23, 135/24- sent 4/13, passed 5/23

klutzyjo---$145-$7945-50-PVB-Jun-0/22, 23/23, 50/24, 50/25-delayed closing- sent 4/27, passed 5/23

TikiRoomMania---$164-$8869-50-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 25/23, 50/24- sent 5/4, passed 5/30

oldmanjames---$158-$10882-60-PVB-Mar-0/22, 120/23, 60/24- sent 5/12, passed 6/1

jlnten17---$135-$61895-425-PVB Fixed Week-Dec-0/21, 225/22, 425/23, 425/24-weeks 32&33- sent 5/5, passed 5/30

momomaya---$145-$31189-200-PVB-Jun-0/22, 400/23, 200/24- sent 5/17, passed 6/7

mkatsy---$156-$8726-50-PVB-Dec-8/21, 18/22, 50/23, 50/24- sent 5/28, passed 6/16

 

[Genie+]

I just want to add that I figured Poly resale value suffers a little because folks feel they can get in at 7 months, which might soften demand to affect the pricing slightly.