Poly Tower Speculation

[aka Charles]

Once the direct pricing for VGF came out, the market quickly corrected itself and dropped the monthly average 22 points. VGF hasn't sniffed $180 per point since. That's a market correction if I've ever seen one. Poly's resale has been within 5 or 10 points for most months ever since March 2022.

When VGF2 pricing came out, the drop in resale prices was not a market correction, it was a market adjustment.
This market adjustment is due to the new active direct sales pricing/incentives, and is temporary in nature.
The incentives have made direct prices available in the $170's, and sometimes in the $160's.
The fact that resale prices have held up in the $155-170's range during this time is amazing.
Once VGF goes back to "Sold Out" status in the coming months, then we will see a market correction, as resale pricing will slowly go back to where the market dictates it should be.
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[hockeydad21]

 

[hockeydad21]

When VGF2 pricing came out, the drop in resale prices was not a market correction, it was a market adjustment.
This market adjustment is due to the new active direct sales pricing/incentives, and is temporary in nature.
The incentives have made direct prices available in the $170's, and sometimes in the $160's.
The fact that resale prices have held up in the $155-170's range during this time is amazing.
Once VGF goes back to "Sold Out" status in the coming months, then we will see a market correction, as resale pricing will slowly go back to where the market dictates it should be.
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I love how out of all the information I put out there, you decided to focus on my choice of the word “correction” vs “adjustment”. Talk about picking pepper out of fly sh*t

 

[aka Charles]

I love how out of all the information I put out there, you decided to focus on my choice of the word “correction” vs “adjustment”. Talk about picking pepper out of fly sh*t

You really missed the point.

My "focus" was on one of the points that you brought up.
I wanted to expand on it for those on this board, and to give everyone a heads up on how VGF resale pricing may be changing soon.
I tried to be clear in what I was saying by being a bit more specific in what has been happening and why, but apparently I fell short of the mark.

I meant no offense, as my comment had nothing to do with you specifically, or your choice of words.
My comment was only about VGF resale pricing changes, and meant for everyone here to consider.
.

 

[Genie+]

I looked back through rofr threads. Here’s one quarter from when it picked back up after the covid dip. The Poly’s were getting through at $130-$135 and just one taken at $117. VGF had many taken starting from $150, and up.

I started there because that was prior to VGF2 being announced. The next quarter had Poly taken up to $140, VGF $160. Basically the same thing next quarter.

After that neither taken the next 6+ quarters (on the rofr thread record).

This is another place the perception of a sizable gap could be formed. It is DVC’s own actions.

 

[hockeydad21]

You really missed the point.

My "focus" was on one of the points that you brought up.
I wanted to expand on it for those on this board, and to give everyone a heads up on how VGF resale pricing may be changing soon.
I tried to be clear in what I was saying by being a bit more specific in what has been happening and why, but apparently I fell short of the mark.

I meant no offense, as my comment had nothing to do with you specifically, or your choice of words.
My comment was only about VGF resale pricing changes, and meant for everyone here to consider.
.

I agree with your point about VGF probably seeing a small uptick in price per point once it sells out. I really just wanted to highlight how ridiculous it is for you to correct someone’s choice of vocabulary even though we’re essentially saying the same thing

 

[Sandisw]

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You're very much cherry picking data to fit your narrative. VGF was at it's peak in 2021 shortly after the expansion was announced and before direct pricing was announced. People were buying resale in the 190s thinking they were getting a bargain under the assumption that direct pricing would start around 220-230. At that same time Poly was going for $173-183 resale. You keep acting like VGF was in the 190s while Poly was living in the 160s. That couldn't be further from the the truth when you look beyond your cherry picked numbers. VGF's spike to the 190s was due to a combo of a strong market overall (affecting an increase across all DVC properties) and people majorly overplaying their betting hand with VGF's future pricing. Nothing more and nothing less.

Once the direct pricing for VGF came out, the market quickly corrected itself and dropped the monthly average 22 points. VGF hasn't sniffed $180 per point since. That's a market correction if I've ever seen one. Poly's resale has been within 5 or 10 points for most months ever since March 2022.

Note that I don't feel strongly either way. I'm about 60/40 split same association vs new association. I recognize the historical arguments for why this fits into the VGF expansion bucket vs the more recent arguments of bucketing it into the Riviera and VDH camp. I'm just trying to provide data where you're being a little misleading.

Maybe I am not explaining myself well, I am looking at what was happening with VGF price when the announcement came through and what some were paying for it when the pricing for direct came out.

The price went up after the announcement and many were paying in the $180s to $190s for it because they were convinced it would be higher priced. Many of us here, including me, did not and predicted it would have the same price as RIV.

What we didn't quite expect is the incentives bringing it down even further. As you mention, the resale market corrected it self when direct could be had for less…I got it for $179.

I am looking at the average price of PVB now…not what it was when VGF went on sale…or what is was last year, or the year before….that is not relevant. It’s about what people are paying today.

Right now, PvB is averaging, even by your numbers, in the $$150s and base price for RIV and AUL is $217 and VDH $230. And, Fidelity seems to have different averages than DVC Resale Market which is all you have posted..IMO, both are valid examples of average pricing happening.

My point is that the current gap between PVB average and direct is larger than the price gap between VGF and direct was at the time initial sales pricing was being determined.

So, if Poly tower is going to be part of PVB, it is going to be tougher for DVd to determine competitive pricing since that gap a be a bigger hill for them to deal with than what DVD had to when VGF went back on sale..due to the high price of VGF resale.

Easier for a buyer to choose direct when it’s only $10 or so cheaper, but not as easy when it’s $40…

Not sure what it is you are taking issue with at this point. To compete with current resale prices, unless DVD does something to influence the market ahead of time, it’s going to be a challenge to price it competitively, which was not the situation they had with VGF when pricing got announced. Because VGF resale was where it was, it was easy for DVD.

This has nothing to do with my opinion about which way it goes either. Just the pieces of the puzzle that I am confident DVD is playing with…or did…when making its decision. And, IMO, to add it to PVB could very well require them to price it lower than making it new and selling it as a new resort.

So, not sure what numbers I am misrepresenting, but as I said, the averages I used for PVB came from our board and Fidelity…but I also conceded that your average in the $150s might be more accurate..

 

[Sandisw]

That surprises me. I had been watching resale on and off since before covid. Then I started watching very closely as inventory built up late last year (with an aggregator that tracks 13 brokers). Early this year we zoned in on Poly and VGF intending to buy resale. In my mind I had the spread between $15-20pp. We were trying to get contract size/UY $135-140 Poly or $150-155 VGF. Those values are just what I came up with between the rofr thread and watching the aggregator.

$20 or $30 is a bit of a stretch but honestly I can understand why there seems a gap. I’m not saying I’m right or my methods were correct, just that if felt like $15-$20 difference was there.

Pulling up the aggregator today with Poly and VGF, there are 14 Poly contracts between $135 and $149 and VGF starts at $150 and only goes up.

The rofr thread is quiet this quarter. Last quarter:

VGF: (7 out of 9 are $150 or more, 2/9 are less)
jkmdds4osu---$150-$15803-100-VGF-Aug-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24- sent 3/29, passed 4/12

JZ_LBNY---$155-$17040-100-VGF-Oct-77/22, 200/23, 100/24- sent 3/29, passed 4/13

Kayaddict---$140-$23290-160-VGF-Apr-0/22, 160/23, 160/24, 160/25- sent 3/31, passed 4/14

Chirpee---$151-$25059-160-VGF-Aug-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 160/24- sent 4/10, passed 4/27

mlittig---$160-$10800-60-VGF-Dec-60/22, 60/23, 60/24- sent 4/11, passed 4/28

Rbjfamily---$127.77-$23865-180-VGF-Feb-0/22, 29/23, 180/24, 180/25-seller pays MF '23- sent 4/10, passed 4/27

HyperspaceMountainPilot---$150-$20252-125-VGF-Jun-0/22, 201/23, 125/24, 125/25- sent 4/21, passed 5/12

disnid---$165-$16139-90-VGF-Apr-0/22, 177/23, 90/24- sent 5/1, passed 5/23

buzzandzurg---$150-$29071-180-VGF-Jun-0/22, 263/23, 180/24- sent 5/19, passed 6/7

PVB: (7 out of 16 are $135 or less)
RichDVC---$135-$17710-120-PVB-Jun-0/22, 188/23, 19/24- sent 3/23, passed 4/4

hockeymomnh---$150-$23114-150-PVB-Aug-0/22, 150/23, 150/24-Delayed Closing 6/16- sent 3/23, passed 4/4

ccv_fam---$130-$22036-150-PVB-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 150/23, 150/24- sent 4/3, passed 4/12

pkrieger2287---$130-$23635-175-PVB-Feb-0/22, 175/23, 175/24, 175/25- sent 3/28, passed 4/12

BellePoly---$135-$23747-160-PVB-Aug-0/22, 165/23, 160/24- sent 4/7, passed 4/25

Ineedavacation33---$139-$14894-100-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 100/23, 100/24-$199 closing special- sent 4/3, passed 4/27

Rocky092---$130-$24198-169-PVB-Mar-0/22, 169/23, 169/24- sent 4/12, passed 4/28

sevargas---$130-$18228-135-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 116/23, 135/24-seller pays MF '23- sent 4/3, passed 4/14

Sleighbelle---$135-$34839-250-PVB-Jun-0/21, 0/22, 0/23, 250/24- sent 4/25, passed 5/16

Galactic Reversal---$150-$21922-135-PVB-Dec-135/22, 135/23, 135/24- sent 4/13, passed 5/23

klutzyjo---$145-$7945-50-PVB-Jun-0/22, 23/23, 50/24, 50/25-delayed closing- sent 4/27, passed 5/23

TikiRoomMania---$164-$8869-50-PVB-Dec-0/21, 0/22, 25/23, 50/24- sent 5/4, passed 5/30

oldmanjames---$158-$10882-60-PVB-Mar-0/22, 120/23, 60/24- sent 5/12, passed 6/1

jlnten17---$135-$61895-425-PVB Fixed Week-Dec-0/21, 225/22, 425/23, 425/24-weeks 32&33- sent 5/5, passed 5/30

momomaya---$145-$31189-200-PVB-Jun-0/22, 400/23, 200/24- sent 5/17, passed 6/7

mkatsy---$156-$8726-50-PVB-Dec-8/21, 18/22, 50/23, 50/24- sent 5/28, passed 6/16

Thank you for doing the hard work! At least I don’t feel crazy that I imagined that quite a few PVBs are going in the $130s!

It’s why I have mentioned that if we see ROFR on some of these lower priced contracts, it might be DVds way of getting that price up higher so the direct pricing when sales start is much closer to sway people to direct, especially if it is part of PVB.

And, I think we all can agree that sales for BPK haven’t been what many would consider incredible, outside of the first few months and last month. It has taken pretty aggressive incentives to get people to buy it.

So, selling Poly tower and FW cabins, along with RIV and VDH, no matter what is going to be tough and require creative moves by DVD.

 

[Genie+]

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Thank you for doing the hard work! At least I don’t feel crazy that I imagined that quite a few PVBs are going in the $130s!

It’s why I have mentioned that if we see ROFR on some of these lower priced contracts, it might be DVds way of getting that price up higher so the direct pricing when sales start is much closer to sway people to direct, especially if it is part of PVB.

And, I think we all can agree that sales for BPK haven’t been what many would consider incredible, outside of the first few months and last month. It has taken pretty aggressive incentives to get people to buy it.

So, selling Poly tower and FW cabins, along with RIV and VDH, no matter what is going to be tough and require creative moves by DVD.

I’m still tempted to buy some Poly resale lol. I’m holding off though. Don’t really need more points the next couple years so waiting is best.

 

[Sandisw]

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I’m still tempted to buy some Poly resale lol. I’m holding off though. Don’t really need more points the next couple years so waiting is best.

If you like the long houses, then it’s a great time! We did consider it in 2021…it’s not our favorite but prices were good…and I would have bought had I gotten it for $125.

Even had six different owners counter and willing to go between $132 and $135, but we passed and ended up with resale RIV instead because, in the end, we bought where we wanted to be.

 

[GoingSince1990]

If it's the same association, Disney will not be competing with PVB resales in the $150s as the resale market prices will immediately increase to reflect the added value of the new tower.

If it's a different association, then "oh we love this resort, but wouldn't we save a huge amount of money by buying resale if we are happy to stay in the older studios?" becomes another awkward question for the DVC guides who are selling the new tower, along with "wow, those bungalows look amazing, if we buy will we be able to book them at 11 months out?" I imagine the DVD guides are rooting like anything for the new tower to be in the same association.

 

[PolyRob]

If it's a different association, then "oh we love this resort, but wouldn't we save a huge amount of money by buying resale if we are happy to stay in the older studios?" becomes another awkward question for the DVC guides, along with "wow, those bungalows look amazing, if we buy will we be able to book them at 11 months out?"

But how many people truly purchased PVB and an appropriate contract size with the intentions of booking a bungalow in the 11-month window? They're wide open in the 7-month window across the board.

I feel like the typical DVC sales pitch is you can buy what we're actively selling and book ANY of our accommodations. Guides would say you could book VGC when in reality it's extremely difficult. Saying you could book PVB1 if PVB2 is a new association won't actually be a lie outside of spotty availability between Thanksgiving and NYE in the studios.

 

[Sandisw]

If it's the same association, Disney will not be competing with PVB resales in the $150s as the resale market prices will immediately increase to reflect the added value of the new tower.

If it's a different association, then "oh we love this resort, but wouldn't we save a huge amount of money by buying resale if we are happy to stay in the older studios?" becomes another awkward question for the DVC guides who are selling the new tower, along with "wow, those bungalows look amazing, if we buy will we be able to book them at 11 months out?" I imagine the DVD guides are rooting like anything for the new tower to be in the same association.

My guess is that when PVB was selling, the bungalows were not a major part of buyers decisions given the high point requirement so I am not sure how many buyers bow would be disappointed to not have home resort advantage for them.

Very possible that PVB raises in price with an announcement that it’s the same…but, it still could mean needing to lower direct sales price to compete…which is what had to happen with VGF.

The question is do they want to have compete with resale or try to make it something exclusive for those who buy from them?

Maybe if they want it to be new, they will decide to put in CL rooms? Family suites? King bed studios? Things that might be seen as more attractive than the bungalows to drive sales?

But I do agree that there could be plenty of guides who prefer things to be easier to explain and sell!

 

[emchen]

If it's the same association, Disney will not be competing with PVB resales in the $150s as the resale market prices will immediately increase to reflect the added value of the new tower.

If it's a different association, then "oh we love this resort, but wouldn't we save a huge amount of money by buying resale if we are happy to stay in the older studios?" becomes another awkward question for the DVC guides who are selling the new tower, along with "wow, those bungalows look amazing, if we buy will we be able to book them at 11 months out?" I imagine the DVD guides are rooting like anything for the new tower to be in the same association.

From the perspective of DVD self-interest:

Same association- "freebie new tower" with new pool, new restaurant, new room-types to existing PVB owners. Potentially book out declared rooms from day one of booking. Screws "new" purchasers of direct points...unhappy "new" owners. DVD gets increased goodwill among existing owners. Debatable whether it will sell out faster, debatable sells for higher short-term profit, debatable sells for higher long-term profit.

Different association- "New" owners get what they paid for including preferred booking, hence happier customers.
Debatable whether it will sell out faster, debatable sells for higher short-term profit, debatable sells for higher long-term profit.

All things being equal, go with the happy "new" owners.

99% Towers at Polynesian Village Resort will be a new and separate association. 1% it will be part of old association.

 

[zavandor]

One of the reasons PVB is not selling as high as VGF was before VGF2 is because people feel they don't need the 11 months advantage most fo the year to book there.
What if adding the new tower causes those people who were switching at 7 months to book 1BR elsewhere to book their favorite resort (since they've bought it) instead? If PVB1+2 becomes more difficult to book at 7 months more people will buy there increasing the resale price, lowering the gap with direct and making sales easier as a result.
This is not a prediction, it's just a way of saying it's difficult to predict the market and/or try to guess what DVD will do based on potential effect on the resale prices.

 

[Sandisw]

One of the reasons PVB is not selling as high as VGF was before VGF2 is because people feel they don't need the 11 months advantage most fo the year to book there.
What if adding the new tower causes those people who were switching at 7 months to book 1BR elsewhere to book their favorite resort (since they've bought it) instead? If PVB1+2 becomes more difficult to book at 7 months more people will buy there increasing the resale price, lowering the gap with direct and making sales easier as a result.
This is not a prediction, it's just a way of saying it's difficult to predict the market and/or try to guess what DVD will do based on potential effect on the resale prices.

I agree it may have that impact and thus would close the gap some…but how does DVD account for that ahead of time?

I bet that is one of the elements that they have had to discuss as the decision was made…and I do believe at this point it is…they just don’t want to share..

 

[CraigInPA]

If it's the same association, Disney will not be competing with PVB resales in the $150s as the resale market prices will immediately increase to reflect the added value of the new tower.

If it's a different association, then "oh we love this resort, but wouldn't we save a huge amount of money by buying resale if we are happy to stay in the older studios?" becomes another awkward question for the DVC guides who are selling the new tower, along with "wow, those bungalows look amazing, if we buy will we be able to book them at 11 months out?" I imagine the DVD guides are rooting like anything for the new tower to be in the same association.

Except that the number of resale buyers is actually a very small number compared to the direct purchasers. People go on vacation, see a DVC booth, walk up and are shuttled to a sales presentation in exchange for some free ride passes. They typically don't even know resale exists.

DISBoards members, as a rule, are much more educated about DVC than the rest of the population.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I think the one thing everyone can agree on is that this board has given more thought to this than the actual executives in charge of the decision.

 

[cdirazonian]

Same association- "freebie new tower" with new pool, new restaurant, new room-types to existing PVB owners. Potentially book out declared rooms from day one of booking.

I was wondering how many contracts were sold over 150 pts, 200 pts? Not being sarcastic just wonderin.

How many PVB owners currently have enough pts to stay in the 1 & 2 bedrooms if they’re priced pt wise the same as VGF, 150 - 200 pts isn’t going to get you many days there, even every other year that amount doesn’t even get you a week some seasons.

Not disagreeing that it’s a possibility just was wondering if anyone knows the percentage of larger contracts to the smaller ones as PVB being only studios people didn’t really need huge contracts.
I know bungalows but how many people bought enough for a week there? i might be surprised but I’m thinking thats not the normal contract size sold there.

 

[CarolynFH]

How many PVB owners currently have enough pts to stay in the 1 & 2 bedrooms if they’re priced pt wise the same as VGF,

That's my thought too. And would DVD sell more direct points for Poly2 if current Poly 1 owners only needed to buy enough to make up the difference between what they own for their Poly1 studio and what they need for a Poly2 1/2BR, or would DVD sell more direct points for Poly2 if current Poly1 owners were just like the rest of us and needed to buy the full amount of points required for a 1/2BR?

I think the one thing everyone can agree on is that this board has given more thought to this than the actual executives in charge of the decision.

We know DVC/DVD read these boards, so all they need to do is give us a tiny bit of info and let us do the analysis for them.