Poly Tower Speculation

[BamaGuy44]

You don’t think it would “sell like hot cakes” if it was priced in the $180s but in the same association? With all of the existing PVB owners whose families have outgrown studios eagerly adding on to gain access to the 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms in the tower?

If it's in the 180's it will sell like crazy regardless of the association. It will sell just fine at current direct price either way too, IMO. It will be a brand new resort, on the monorail, with great views of MK. Unless there's some crazy flaw we don't know about yet, or the economy really nosedives worse than it has, I don't see why it wouldn't sell well.

If it's anything close to the 180's direct, my money will leave my bank account so fast it will leave skid marks.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

You don’t think it would “sell like hot cakes” if it was priced in the $180s but in the same association? With all of the existing PVB owners whose families have outgrown studios eagerly adding on to gain access to the 1, 2, and 3 bedrooms in the tower?

It may be tempting for me just to have a larger amount of direct points but if it's the same association I'll likely just end up buying resale and potentially save the money for a different contract down the line whether that's resale/direct. I guess it depends on how much the delta is. If it's the same association I also won't feel pressured to buy in at this time because I can always pick up resale down the road. It is kind of interesting that they were selling PVB not that long ago in March of this year when I was on a trip and they were trying to get me to buy in before my UY.

When they announced CCV, does anyone know if they immediately said it was a different association? I mean I'm sure it was pretty much all but guaranteed given how many years are left on BRV now. I know they immediately announced the same association with VGF.

If it's in the 180's it will sell like crazy regardless of the association. It will sell just fine at current direct price either way too, IMO. It will be a brand new resort, on the monorail, with great views of MK. Unless there's some crazy flaw we don't know about yet, or the economy really nosedives worse than it has, I don't see why it wouldn't sell well.

If it's anything close to the 180's direct, my money will leave my bank account so fast it will leave skid marks.

I think with aggressive enough pricing it doesn't matter which way they go but I think it would make the most sense to go separate IF they want to price it aggressively as well. And at this point I don't see why they would slow play it. We know executives at Disney right now are short sighted and care only about immediate monetary gratification...they need to show the money now. Slow playing the pricing doesn't help them. So if the Poly2 is priced right then they can go separate and not have to deal with any of the resale headache and still move product. Pricing is everything. In terms of restricting points who knows. If the price is right as @Sandisw always says then restrictions don't seem to matter. IF they wanted to really push product then I can see them pausing restrictions. In the current fiscal environment I don't think opening sales of Poly 2 at say 189pp is out of bounds. I think it would behoove them to start hot and then see where it goes from there. They're still going to have a ton of points to sell regardless. And yes at those prices I'm finding any loose change in my sofa to throw at them.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I think with aggressive enough pricing it doesn't matter which way they go but I think it would make the most sense to go separate IF they want to price it aggressively as well. And at this point I don't see why they would slow play it. We know executives at Disney right now are short sighted and care only about immediate monetary gratification...they need to show the money now. Slow playing the pricing doesn't help them. So if the Poly2 is priced right then they can go separate and not have to deal with any of the resale headache and still move product. Pricing is everything. In terms of restricting points who knows. If the price is right as @Sandisw always says then restrictions don't seem to matter. IF they wanted to really push product then I can see them pausing restrictions. In the current fiscal environment I don't think opening sales of Poly 2 at say 189pp is out of bounds. I think it would behoove them to start hot and then see where it goes from there. They're still going to have a ton of points to sell regardless. And yes at those prices I'm finding any loose change in my sofa to throw at them.

Maybe, but in the past DVD has shown they're playing the long game. They're making 40-50 year decisions here, that will affect the product as a whole. I'm not saying they're above a quick money grab (I'm looking at you, VGF2), but in general I don't think pushing points super quick at opening sale in the current economy will move the needle that much on these decisions. I'm sure there will be some nice incentives to start, but they have no reason to give it away or abandon restrictions. It will take 5+ years to sell out, they know that.

My position from the beginning has been: If they feel like restrictions are the path forward for the product, and they clearly do, I don't see how they could pass up the chance to add all these restricted points to the system.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Maybe, but in the past DVD has shown they're playing the long game. They're making 40-50 year decisions here, that will affect the product as a whole. I'm not saying they're above a quick money grab (I'm looking at you, VGF2), but in general I don't think pushing points super quick at opening sale in the current economy will move the needle that much on these decisions. I'm sure there will be some nice incentives to start, but they have no reason to give it away or abandon restrictions. It will take 5+ years to sell out, they know that.

My position from the beginning has been: If they feel like restrictions are the path forward for the product, and they clearly do, I don't see how they could pass up the chance to add all these restricted points to the system.

I agree about the restricted points. They suck but I definitely see the benefit to DVD going forward. I still maintain that current leadership is in a bit of a squeeze though more than ever before. They're feeling it from more and more outlets and that's why I think they come out like gang busters with the pricing. I think all divisions are on high alert to add as much to the coffers as possible. And Poly 2 will be for next fiscal year but I think Disney has basically abandoned any hope for FY23 anyway since we have two months left. I think FY24 is going to be a make or break for them especially like someone said if the economy nose dives...and honestly who the hell knows how the economy plays out at this point. Also this could all be wishful thinking to be able to get Poly2 at a decent price! If pricing comes out at $250 pp I'll just nod and move along.

 

[KimMcGowan]

Similar in configuration maybe. Unfortunately, it doesn't look anything like the original tower design, which actually fit in with theme.

View attachment 787362

I don’t hate the new design like many others- but I LOVE this one!

 

[Jwaire]

I don’t hate the new design like many others- but I LOVE this one!

Back when Disney still had Imagineers working on resorts.



It was originally going where Pago Pago is now. It had its own lobby and bell services. Notice it doesn’t block any existing longhouse’s view either.

It was supposed to come with a lazy river too where Tangaroa Terrace/Kid’s Club is now.

Instead we got 20th Century Fox, which has obviously been a huge success , and an over budget Shanghai Disney.

 

[Sandisw]

It may be tempting for me just to have a larger amount of direct points but if it's the same association I'll likely just end up buying resale and potentially save the money for a different contract down the line whether that's resale/direct. I guess it depends on how much the delta is. If it's the same association I also won't feel pressured to buy in at this time because I can always pick up resale down the road. It is kind of interesting that they were selling PVB not that long ago in March of this year when I was on a trip and they were trying to get me to buy in before my UY.

When they announced CCV, does anyone know if they immediately said it was a different association? I mean I'm sure it was pretty much all but guaranteed given how many years are left on BRV now. I know they immediately announced the same association with VGF.

No, they did not. It was a few months later

 

[hcortesis]

If it's anything close to the 180's direct, my money will leave my bank account so fast it will leave skid marks.

Serious question and not doubting your plan at all. But if a studio rents for 45 pts/night. Or a 1 bedroom for 90 pts. Or a 2 bed for 120. Would you still feel the same?

I always get a little confused when there are discussions on prices per point when there isn't further discussion on points per night.

 

[intamin]

Serious question and not doubting your plan at all. But if a studio rents for 45 pts/night. Or a 1 bedroom for 90 pts. Or a 2 bed for 120. Would you still feel the same?

I always get a little confused when there are discussions on prices per point when there isn't further discussion on points per night.

I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the points can be used anywhere so you have places like SSR in the system that have some cheap point charts but yes, the point chart should be taken into account. Pretty much a given that Poly tower’s point chart is going to be on par with Grand Flos.. or worse so this will be interesting.

 

[Stargazer65]

Serious question and not doubting your plan at all. But if a studio rents for 45 pts/night. Or a 1 bedroom for 90 pts. Or a 2 bed for 120. Would you still feel the same?

I always get a little confused when there are discussions on prices per point when there isn't further discussion on points per night.

Those are really high point costs, higher than VGF on Christmas week. So if it was that high it would give me some pause.

OTOH, I bought VGF direct knowing full well I don't plan to use the points there all the time. I just wanted the flexibility to use at every resort (including restricted) with the VGF priority being a frequent benefit.

 

[CraigInPA]

If DVC was to do a $180pp resort, it'll be the Fort Wilderness project, with restrictions. They don't need to heavily discount a monorail resort in order to sell it, whether it's one association with PVB1 or a separate association.

 

[hockeydad21]

I don’t hate the new design like many others- but I LOVE this one!

Agreed. It's a very nice looking resort, but it just doesn't work. The issue is its drastic deviation from the original buildings. People would love the design of this building as a stand alone resort if it were pretty much anywhere else on Disney property. Sadly it just doesn't fit next to the small tiki-hut-like longhouses. The Imagineers mailed it in on this one.

I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that the points can be used anywhere so you have places like SSR in the system that have some cheap point charts but yes, the point chart should be taken into account. Pretty much a given that Poly tower’s point chart is going to be on par with Grand Flos.. or worse so this will be interesting.

I too would expect the points chart to be on par with VGF or just ever so slightly lower. I'd be shocked if they made the poly tower's points chart higher than their flagship resort's points chart. I guess you never know though.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Serious question and not doubting your plan at all. But if a studio rents for 45 pts/night. Or a 1 bedroom for 90 pts. Or a 2 bed for 120. Would you still feel the same?

I always get a little confused when there are discussions on prices per point when there isn't further discussion on points per night.

Haven't considered it because I don't see that as a reasonable possibility. PVB studio rates are already established. And the standard pattern at the other resorts is a 1 BR is roughly double the points of a studio, and a 2 BR is 30-40% more than a 1BR. If they broke that pattern and gave it some crazy unheard of point chart, I'd have to reevaluate. But it's extremely unlikely, IMO.

They might invent some new Theme Park View concierge platinum catgeory for some of the rooms, but as long as I'd have access to the normally priced rooms at 11 months I'm good.

 

[intamin]

Agreed. It's a very nice looking resort, but it just doesn't work. The issue is its drastic deviation from the original buildings. People would love the design of this building as a stand alone resort if it were pretty much anywhere else on Disney property. Sadly it just doesn't fit next to the small tiki-hut-like longhouses. The Imagineers mailed it in on this one.

I too would expect the points chart to be on par with VGF or just ever so slightly lower. I'd be shocked if they made the poly tower's points chart higher than their flagship resort's points chart. I guess you never know though.

If VGF and Poly 2 came out at the same time I would agree, VGF’s point chart would be worse; however, VGF has been open for the past 10 years or so so I expect the point chart inflation to be worse if its a new association, if it’s the same probably closer to VGF.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I agree about the restricted points. They suck but I definitely see the benefit to DVD going forward. I still maintain that current leadership is in a bit of a squeeze though more than ever before. They're feeling it from more and more outlets and that's why I think they come out like gang busters with the pricing. I think all divisions are on high alert to add as much to the coffers as possible. And Poly 2 will be for next fiscal year but I think Disney has basically abandoned any hope for FY23 anyway since we have two months left. I think FY24 is going to be a make or break for them especially like someone said if the economy nose dives...and honestly who the hell knows how the economy plays out at this point. Also this could all be wishful thinking to be able to get Poly2 at a decent price! If pricing comes out at $250 pp I'll just nod and move along.

Base price will be in line with the other WDW resorts currently on sale, which is 217 right now, probably a bit higher by the time it goes on sale. Then it will be down to how good the incentives are. I've been hoping for around 200, but let's hope you're right and they give it some crazy incentives to bring in some fast cash

 

[tidefan]

So... I am not so convinced that this is going to be the "slam-dunk" sales event for DVC. It took PVB1 over 2.5 years to sell out and I don't see this selling any faster. Look at how VDH has really slowed down over the past few weeks (there is a thread in the resorts section), and I would wager that property was even more anticipated than this one (acknowledged caveat: I do believe that one of the biggest issues facing VDH is the TAT, and hopefully, that will not be an issue in FL).

Usually, when a new resort goes on sale, the initial offering is to existing members. I remember when VGF1 went on sale, they had it for $145/pt for existing members for a few weeks prior to the general offering, which was $150/pt. I believe that VDH had a similar promotion for existing members as well. However, the shape of this resort is really going to affect sales. If it is mainly 1/2/3 Bedroom, you are probably looking at 300 points per week to stay.

Another question is association. If it is a new association, you are going to cut out all of the 50-100 point add-on's that they could easily make from existing members as it won't make sense for them to add on if you can't combine with your existing points. I would speculate that would be a lot of upfront sales that could be lost. Now if it's the same association, do you have as much interest from those that aren't existing PVB1 members? However, how many of those folks are willing to purchase 150 point contracts? How many people are willing to invest that? Sales were high for VGF and PVB1 because people can easily get into studios. Yes, I know that everyone begrudges staying in studios, but that is what is in-demand by owners. Will there be enough studios at PVB2 to satisfy demand, or would it be a CCV situation where they are all gone at 8am at 11 months?

However, the biggest thing is probably just the financial headwinds that DVD is rolling this resort out in. It's not like people just have discretionary cash laying around these days. Interest rates are high and inflation is still taking a bite out of the economy. Luxury purchases (like timeshares) are usually the first thing to go (and this may have more to do with the sales slowdowns at RIV and VDH, etc. more than anything else).

It will come down to price and point chart. I'll have my popcorn ready...

 

[TheDailyMoo]

If DVC was to do a $180pp resort, it'll be the Fort Wilderness project, with restrictions. They don't need to heavily discount a monorail resort in order to sell it, whether it's one association with PVB1 or a separate association.

I would say under any normal circumstances no but if there's ever a perfect storm brewing to get them to want to move it fast it could well be approaching as Poly 2 goes on sale. Now we could have a miraculous global economic turnaround and Disney starts falling into favor again and prints money hand over fist. But that just doesn't feel like it's going to happen in the relatively short time before Poly 2 sales begin. I think if there's ever going to be what would amount to economic panic from the C-Suite it's going to be happening as Poly 2 is about to go on sale and I can see pressure being put on all divisions of the company to "do whatever you can". Of course this is all speculation but isn't this the fun part while we wait!

 

[TheDailyMoo]

However, the biggest thing is probably just the financial headwinds that DVD is rolling this resort out in. It's not like people just have discretionary cash laying around these days. Interest rates are high and inflation is still taking a bite out of the economy. Luxury purchases (like timeshares) are usually the first thing to go (and this may have more to do with the sales slowdowns at RIV and VDH, etc. more than anything else).

Much agreed and the reason I think they come out with Black Friday style blow it out sales to start. And yes it's fun to watch unfold.

 

[tidefan]

Much agreed and the reason I think they come out with Black Friday style blow it out sales to start. And yes it's fun to watch unfold.

But do they want to "fire-sale" a prime location like Poly? I suspect that if they were considering this, they'd get aggressive on RIV and use it like the old SSR fall-back purchase.

"Can't buy shiny new (but expensive) Poly?, well we've got a great deal over here at RIV..."

 

[BamaGuy44]

So... I am not so convinced that this is going to be the "slam-dunk" sales event for DVC. It took PVB1 over 2.5 years to sell out and I don't see this selling any faster. Look at how VDH has really slowed down over the past few weeks (there is a thread in the resorts section), and I would wager that property was even more anticipated than this one (acknowledged caveat: I do believe that one of the biggest issues facing VDH is the TAT, and hopefully, that will not be an issue in FL).

Usually, when a new resort goes on sale, the initial offering is to existing members. I remember when VGF1 went on sale, they had it for $145/pt for existing members for a few weeks prior to the general offering, which was $150/pt. I believe that VDH had a similar promotion for existing members as well. However, the shape of this resort is really going to affect sales. If it is mainly 1/2/3 Bedroom, you are probably looking at 300 points per week to stay.

Another question is association. If it is a new association, you are going to cut out all of the 50-100 point add-on's that they could easily make from existing members as it won't make sense for them to add on if you can't combine with your existing points. I would speculate that would be a lot of upfront sales that could be lost. Now if it's the same association, do you have as much interest from those that aren't existing PVB1 members? However, how many of those folks are willing to purchase 150 point contracts? How many people are willing to invest that? Sales were high for VGF and PVB1 because people can easily get into studios. Yes, I know that everyone begrudges staying in studios, but that is what is in-demand by owners. Will there be enough studios at PVB2 to satisfy demand, or would it be a CCV situation where they are all gone at 8am at 11 months?

However, the biggest thing is probably just the financial headwinds that DVD is rolling this resort out in. It's not like people just have discretionary cash laying around these days. Interest rates are high and inflation is still taking a bite out of the economy. Luxury purchases (like timeshares) are usually the first thing to go (and this may have more to do with the sales slowdowns at RIV and VDH, etc. more than anything else).

It will come down to price and point chart. I'll have my popcorn ready...

I'd be curious to know what they would consider a successful first year of sales. And what their high end and low end projections are for how fast it should sell out. Of course we'd never be able to get those answers. I assume they would fully expect a new resort to start out fast, and then slow down, taking multiple years to completely sell out. As long as they can get the eye popping cash rates people seem to be willing to pay for the unsold rooms, they can play the long game. No need to price it to sell out in a year or 2. And the timing of initial sales looks like it may fall into high interest rates and less than favorable economy. So that will affect projections too I'm sure.

What will be fun for me to watch is the board dynamics when the sales numbers start coming in. Whatever they are, the faction of the board rooting for it to fail will claim the numbers are disastrous, proving what a terrible mistake DVC made with the resort, etc etc.