Poly Tower Speculation

[Sandisw]

How did DVC talk about VGF2 association prior to sale of points?

The initial announcement was clear that BPK was to be a new phase for VGF. So, they did not wait to announce the decision.

They announced the project in May 2021 and it went for sale March 2022. With Poly tower, we are 17 months since they announced, and they are still keeping it a big secret.

Which is why it leads me to thinking new association….I just don’t see a good reason, at this point, not to share.

Point charts for 2025 should be out in November/December…if this is going to be rolled into PVB, I would think we will see new rooms on those charts…

One thing is certain…they do not want the decision to be known yet, even with it as far along as it is, But, it took a long time, as someone else mentioned, for them to admit BLT was DVC!

 

[hockeydad21]

That is the thing,,,we have no idea…and they probably don’t either…how they will handle that with the 2042 resorts.

So, why create that same situation again…which is why I see having both expire at the same time as a con for DVD financially.

It could be why they changed the model to 50 year contracts all those years ago to prevent that from happening any more.

Yeah, but adding the tower to PVB, giving them both the same association and deed expiration year, wouldn't be on the same level as the 2042 resorts. You're talking about 20 million points vs a potential 9-10 million points. That's not exactly apples to apples.

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah, but adding the tower to PVB, giving them both the same association and deed expiration year, wouldn't be on the same level as the 2042 resorts. You're talking about 20 million points vs a potential 9-10 million points. That's not exactly apples to apples.

I agree it’s not same number of points but take out the off site for a moment.

You have BCV and BWV going which are extremely popular resorts due to location to Epcot.

Do you really not think DVD wishes one of those was not ending in 2042?

I do. With BRV, they still have CCV rooms for people at that location.

OKW has 2057 contracts so all those are not coming off line.

My opinion is that it’s better for them to have staggered expirations at Poly.

I will go so far as to predict that whatever replaces BCV and BWV will not expire at the same time.

While different resorts, the distance between them is not hugely different than longhouse and tower.

So, as I said, I think selling it as a 50 year to stagger expiration is a much better move for them for not only current sales but for replacement later.

And, while the OKW extension was a mess, there is nothing to prevent them in 30 years to extend the ground lease of PVB to March a new date for the tower and offer owners a chance. Unlikely, but still an option to weigh their decision.

ETA: BCV and BWV represent about 7.8 million points which would be pretty close to what PVB and Poly tower would be having expiring at the same time.

 

[Sandisw]

Another thought in terms of potential timing. Someone has mentioned that DVD might have regretted the timing of VGF being announced from the start as same association was a mistake as it drove people to resale.

It could be a reason to have held off for Poly tower.

But that announcement when it came did raise the resale price which allowed the direct prices to start much closer to resale. And of course, once DVD priced VGF where they did, resale prices took a dive about $20 to $30/point.

PVB resale has now gone down quite a bit since last year. It’s $130 to $140s average.

If, DVD is making this part of PVB, I’d think we should see the announcement soon so that they can get the resale market back up so their price is much closer.

If we see some RoFR with PVB, my confidence with it being new goes to 50/50.

 

[SPLzero]

I would say DVC was keeping it a big secret if they have released a bunch of info about the new tower. I feel like we have seen more info and photos from reflection than this new tower and its already taking shape.

 

[MartyParty]

Out of Poly thread lurking mode to use a work quote of mine for the Poly 1/2 convo:

Consider what is logical, factor in the opposite, and that is what DVD will do.

Ok, back to lurking. Enjoying the banter.

 

[Nursemanit]

If it was going to be separate-I would have every guide mention it in every presentation to sell more direct “ you won’t be able to stay at the new poly with resale”

If it was going to be the same I would keep people in the dark

 

[hockeydad21]

Another thought in terms of potential timing. Someone has mentioned that DVD might have regretted the timing of VGF being announced from the start as same association was a mistake as it drove people to resale.

It could be a reason to have held off for Poly tower.

But that announcement when it came did raise the resale price which allowed the direct prices to start much closer to resale. And of course, once DVD priced VGF where they did, resale prices took a dive about $20 to $30/point.

PVB resale has now gone down quite a bit since last year. It’s $130 to $140s average.

If, DVD is making this part of PVB, I’d think we should see the announcement soon so that they can get the resale market back up so their price is much closer.

If we see some RoFR with PVB, my confidence with it being new goes to 50/50.

PVB resale is not that low. PVB's average low over the last 12 months was $150, while GFV's average low over that same time period was $155. Both coincidentally occurred in March '23. See attached chart.

VGF's resale prices rose rather quickly prior to BPK going on sale because everyone expected the initial direct pricing to be far higher than it actually was. Those people who bought VGF resale at $185+ early on really ended up with egg on their face because shortly after the direct pricing announcement, resale prices corrected themselves accordingly. I doubt we'll see the same number of interested buyers make that same mistake again if they do decide to go resale prior to direct pricing being announced. No reason for someone to buy Poly above $175 resale when the early direct pricing with incentives will probably get you close to that number in spring 2024. This is all assuming they are part of the same associations. If they're different, then it's an entirely different conversation as PVB resale pricing probably stays very flat...which isn't a horrible thing either.

 

[Sandisw]

If it was going to be separate-I would have every guide mention it in every presentation to sell more direct “ you won’t be able to stay at the new poly with resale”

If it was going to be the same I would keep people in the dark

Which is why this makes things all the more weird….but, they never announced resale restrictions were going to be part of VDH…they slipped it in unknown and it was discovered.

So, they have been known to keep things quiet….but who knows…

 

[Sandisw]

PVB resale is not that low. PVB's average low over the last 12 months was $150, while GFV's average low over that same time period was $155. Both coincidentally occurred in March '23. See attached chart.

VGF's resale prices rose rather quickly prior to BPK going on sale because everyone expected the initial direct pricing to be far higher than it actually was. Those people who bought VGF resale at $185+ early on really ended up with egg on their face because shortly after the direct pricing announcement, resale prices corrected themselves accordingly. I doubt we'll see the same number of interested buyers make that same mistake again if they do decide to go resale prior to direct pricing being announced. No reason for someone to buy Poly above $175 resale when the early direct pricing with incentives will probably get you close to that number in spring 2024. This is all assuming they are part of the same associations. If they're different, then it's an entire different conversation as PVB resale pricing probably stays very flat...which isn't a horrible thing either.

View attachment 786206

The data here from April through now seems to show several contracts being sold in the $130s and $140s…and why I used the figures I did.

But, it has always been lower than VGF which means the spread between resale and direct is larger.

That is why I would think that at this point, if they want to be able to complete with the resale market, assuming same association, they would be doing things soon to get that price up so the spread up so that new pricing next year can be close like it was for VGF.

And, maybe that is playing a role in why ROFR is coming back? All we know is that they have not shared and there is a reason they don’t want to. It could be because they don’t want people to know they are going to be inconsistent with the restrictions, like mentioned,

However, it still makes no sense to roll it in…at least for me and if I was part of a team deciding, it’s a no brainer to make it new, stay the course, price it well, and drive more people to direct when you can show you have four resorts with restrictions….but alas, I am not.

I still think that DVD loses its ability to be believed that resale will be restricted from future resorts if Poly tower doesn’t become a new resort. Then again, the topic of resale restrictions is not a big selling point and only discussed when someone mentions resale. Matter of fact, guides don’t discuss the resale market at all unless a buyer brings up the topic.

So, again, some of us will be right and some wrong. Just like the pricing of VGF, many here knew it would start base at $207 yet some were convinced it would be much higher.

 

[Roughians_satchel]

The initial announcement was clear that BPK was to be a new phase for VGF. So, they did not wait to announce the decision.

They announced the project in May 2021 and it went for sale March 2022. With Poly tower, we are 17 months since they announced, and they are still keeping it a big secret.

So Poly2 was announced in March 2022 - just as they were selling BPK. Maybe they left Poly details vague at the time as to not distract from the monorail resort next door where they needed to sell millions of points. If people had more information about the Poly - they might decide to wait for the new tower.

Then, it sounds to me like the FWCabins kind of fell in their lap...that it wasn't in the works when they announced the Poly. So, whatever their initial plans for the Poly were (in regards to association) may be changing as part of an overall strategy.

In terms of "big picture" - I really don't think they're worried about 40 or 50 years from now, making existing members happy, or making every expansion shoe horn in the restrictions. I think "big picture" has to do with maxing current sales, and what would be the most attractive to different consumers. BPK has proven that they can expand an existing, unrestricted, shorter contract resort (on the monorail) and have it sell well.

 

[Sandisw]

So Poly2 was announced in March 2022 - just as they were selling BPK. Maybe they left Poly details vague at the time as to not distract from the monorail resort next door where they needed to sell millions of points. If people had more information about the Poly - they might decide to wait for the new tower.

Then, it sounds to me like the FWCabins kind of fell in their lap...that it wasn't in the works when they announced the Poly. So, whatever their initial plans for the Poly were (in regards to association) may be changing as part of an overall strategy.

In terms of "big picture" - I really don't think they're worried about 40 or 50 years from now, making existing members happy, or making every expansion shoe horn in the restrictions. I think "big picture" has to do with maxing current sales, and what would be the most attractive to different consumers. BPK has proven that they can expand an existing, unrestricted, shorter contract resort (on the monorail) and have it sell well.

Except it didnt sell well, outside of initial months, until they made it less expensive than RIV and most recently, brought back the MB program.

A lower price is what has caused the sales to rise recently because fewer people choose it when they could get RIV for less.

And, my thought is it will be the same for Poly tower, regardless of association decision.

While I personally think sales will be better as a new resort, DVD could decide the opposite.

All we know is that to sell, DVD has to price it to sell.

If VDH, RIV and Poly tower, along with FW cabins. all have restrictions, and priced to account for that, sales will be just as good.

Price Poly tower more than RIV, especially as a shorter contract, and they might end up in the same situation they did last year with VGF and be forced to flip things to make it cheaper.

Another big piece is the ability to sell those villas for cash while sales are going on. Those might be pretty popular as a monorail resort.

Could they decide that the slower than average sales model of RIV and AUL would be okay if they have a cash base??

 

[SPLzero]

Which is why this makes things all the more weird….but, they never announced resale restrictions were going to be part of VDH…they slipped it in unknown and it was discovered.

So, they have been known to keep things quiet….but who knows…

I dont know why they would ever announce resale restrictions? why shine light on resale when they want everyone to buy direct?

 

[Sandisw]

I dont know why they would ever announce resale restrictions? why shine light on resale when they want everyone to buy direct?

I agree but it was more for the point that they may not make an announcement about Poly tower in terms of association and just update documents, like the point charts, or POS
and we all discover that way.

That’s also why I don’t think they use the decision in a sales pitch either, even if it is going to be new.

I really believe we will find out the decision by someone finding documents filed with OCC or when points charts come out vs being told outright. It’s why keeping an eye on those is so important.

It will get posted here when it comes to light and DVD won’t need to do a thing.

 

[SPLzero]

Now can we get more info on maybe a bar and restaurant coming!

 

[CarolynFH]

If it was going to be separate-I would have every guide mention it in every presentation to sell more direct “ you won’t be able to stay at the new poly with resale”

If it was going to be the same I would keep people in the dark

Well, but isn't "you won't be able to stay at any new resorts" the same thing?

 

[Sandisw]

Well, but isn't "you won't be able to stay at any new resorts" the same thing?

Actually, good point that’s better to just keep it unknown since it allows those who might ask to be told “ there is no decision yet” but no matter which way it goes, direct gives you access!

 

[maui22]

Now can we get more info on maybe a bar and restaurant coming!

Both of the existing Polynesian pools have bars and they both serve food. Artist renderings that Disney release sure look like a bar area close to the pool. (With the tower being compared to hotel chains, it would also make sense for the bar to be accessible from the lobby).

Polynesian restaurants (QS and TS) are already extremely busy. Not sure how Polynesian hotel guests would feel about 1000-2000 more Polynesian guests competing for the already overly busy restaurants.

 

[Genie+]

When restrictions were announced with RIV the negatives drove discussions. Then it opened, people started staying there, eventually resale contracts popped up, and through that timeline conversations grew more positive.

Not announcing Poly restrictions sooner than necessary keeps the topic from getting bogged down in negativity. Leaving the question unanswered increases intrigue. I can see it making sense to keep shtum until the actual realities of Poly Tower are revealed (no longer abstract). Here are the views! The dining options! The pool! The rooms! The decor!

Go back to 2019 negatives of RIV: Informed people won’t buy with restrictions. It’s part of a moderate. Resale will lose greater than 50%. Point charts ridiculous. Looks like HoJo. Skyliner a heat trap. Much of that quieted down once it was in play and the positives offset the grumbling.

This transition into DVC2.0 with restrictions is a challenge. But important if they want protect the future of direct from resale. If a new buyer thinks the most worthwhile part of direct is APs and they’re not interested, why not save thousands by buying resale? If a direct member is adding on, why buy more direct if resale saves 30%? With restrictions they’d no longer get the full product. Contracts cover alot of the time where the differences only grow bigger.

 

[aka Charles]

Polynesian restaurants (QS and TS) are already extremely busy. Not sure how Polynesian hotel guests would feel about 1000-2000 more Polynesian guests competing for the already overly busy restaurants.

Always a concern.

Makes me wonder if WDW might change the dining reservation policies in the future.
Maybe allowing resort guests (DVC and cash alike) to book dining reservations, at the resort they are staying at, a week or two earlier than other guests.
So if your stay is booked at the Poly, you have the best chance at getting reservations at the Poly restaurants you want, on the days and times you want, during your stay.

Buy where you want to stay, stay where you want to eat.
.