Poll: Your Riviera Resale price

[skier_pete]

The question is what I would pay. Myself it would have to be less than SSR to even consider it. Not just the resale restrictions, but the MF and the # of points it costs for a night there, the resale price would need to be bottom of the barrel. Now if you ask me what i think it will actually be, I'd pick a different number.

 

[bethifoody]

I would have to see it and likely even stay there first. As it stands today, because of the resale restrictions, I wouldn't even consider it - not direct and not resale. Maybe staying there would change my mind, but I doubt it.

 

[skier_pete]

I just wanted to say this is a very interesting poll and thnks @Drewferin for starting it. I always assume that when resale contracts first come out, they start out higher than they really should only because there are so few available. However, this very small sample size poll says there is not a lot of support for a high price point on Riviera.

I always say Disney's Ideal is that they want resale prices high while what you get for resale to be much less than what you get direct. They are probably very happy that they've been able to drive resale to $140-150 at many resorts while still putting in place lots of restrictions. However, I do not think Disney will be very happy if Riviera comes out of the gate selling for $100 a point on resale market.

 

[jerseyduke]

The big question is how hard will it be to book at 7 months.

If it is hard, then owning there becomes that much more important. If it is on the easier side, then not so much.

Hard to book at 7 months = resale will hold strong. "Easy" = price < 90.

Take BCV and BWV - very popular during F&W. Like everywhere else, popular in December. That right there is 4 months where you need to own to stay there. That drives the price up some.

As it was stated, every contract that gets resold can not swap out, so that will make it harder. It was stated that 3 of a resort gets sold a year, wonder how much of that is resale of a resale. Guess it raises over time, and not going into differential equations.

Other point that I have not seen made, although a small one, if you buy resale at Riviera, and your points go into holding, they are probably all but gone. I have only had to use holding points once, and I was able to find something that worked, going across all the resorts. I think it will be very hard to get something at RRV 60 days out. Hello breakage!

 

[Arthur2990]

$150. Resale restriction is overstated. You always hear buy where you want to own. Many people on this board have not seen the rooms at the preview center in person. I bet if they did, even though the resort is not finished yet, some opinionS would change. Skyliner, restaurants, amenities, 50 year life span, 5 different room types (with studios sleeping 5). There will be plenty of people that will want to own here.

I am probably in the minority, but the rooms at Riv are not my style. I prefer the style of the rooms of BWV, BCV and BLT. Plus the resale options would prevent me from every wanting to buy at Riv.

 

[DisFanDad]

The big question is how hard will it be to book at 7 months.

If it is hard, then owning there becomes that much more important. If it is on the easier side, then not so much.

Hard to book at 7 months = resale will hold strong. "Easy" = price < 90.

Take BCV and BWV - very popular during F&W. Like everywhere else, popular in December. That right there is 4 months where you need to own to stay there. That drives the price up some.

As it was stated, every contract that gets resold can not swap out, so that will make it harder. It was stated that 3 of a resort gets sold a year, wonder how much of that is resale of a resale. Guess it raises over time, and not going into differential equations.

Other point that I have not seen made, although a small one, if you buy resale at Riviera, and your points go into holding, they are probably all but gone. I have only had to use holding points once, and I was able to find something that worked, going across all the resorts. I think it will be very hard to get something at RRV 60 days out. Hello breakage!

I think your easy / hard proposition only works at the L14 resorts. The problem with Riviera, as you do acknowledge, is that you can ONLY use those points at Riviera. So while difficulty of booking at a L14 resort becomes a reason to buy there, at Riviera I think it becomes a reason NOT to buy there because if you can't book there your points are worthless.

 

[DisFanDad]

I responded 90 ... Because that's probably what I'd pay. The restrictions have so damn many downsides, I'd rather buy AKV SSR or BLT. If length of contract is really that important Poly, GF, CCV will be available, you need to undercut those by a huge margin (based on their market rates,) for me to consider Riviera. So if Poly is selling at 65% of their direct price (which it is). Rivieras got to be like ... Less than 50% of its direct cost ...

 

[Arthur2990]

I would take that bet. Historically, Disney has not bought back a property it is actively marketing (Riviera and Aulani now); if you found an owner willing to sell AUL for $40/point, I would bet Disney doesn't touch it.

The flaw with expecting low Riviera resale prices is that owners will not want to lose their shirts on an elective sale. So if an owner chooses to sell, they could probably afford to be patient. If, on the other hand, they HAVE TO sell (because of financing, maybe), they probably can't afford to go too low without needing to bring money to the table. If anything, a desperate owner will just foreclose and walk away.

Barring larger macro-economic factors, dirt-cheap Riviera resale in the near term is a pipe dream. And in a few years, $175/point for a Disney timeshare may be what's considered dirt-cheap.

Who knows following this line of thinking we might see a much larger number of contracts in the foreclosure market. People who hit hard times, can't make enough money from resale may choose just to walk away from their contract.

 

[katandmouse]

When I first looked at the poll results I thought, wow that is a huge difference in what the first RIV selling price will probably be and the price most people (in this very small sample) are saying they’d pay. How long will that sit on the market!

Then I thought, I wonder how many people who responded Under $90 (myself included) really have any intention of buying RIV resale? Honestly I don’t.

One more thing that I haven't heard anyone mention. It may be true that Disney will initially be selling Riviera to a bunch of inexperienced DVC Newbs, with pixie dust in their eyes, but that isn't what is going to happen on the resale market. The resale market is much heavier in the savvy, experienced DVC owners. No pixie dust allowed. And they won't be rushing to grab it, considering the restrictions, unless the price drops enough to warrant it.

Sure, there will ALWAYS be some people who are going to buy it, regardless of the resale price, because they will just want to stay there. But an awful lot of the experienced DVC Owners just won't be interested, because they like the benefits of more options from resale purchase of the L14.

I think @Frederic Civish makes a good point about resale buyers. I think the pool will be smaller - people just buying RIV to add to other contracts where they have other options.

I think the Tower studios will be like AKV Value/Club, and the RIV Standard studios like BLT Standard, so you will need to own RIV to book those.

I really think the RIV Preferred will shake out somewhere between AKV Savanna and BLT Lake View. So if you have enough points to book those rooms, you won’t necessarily need to own there. (That is, once the resort is fully declared; right now there’s so few rooms available they all go fast.)

As for the percentage of resale, when we looked into it a month or two ago, it seems like it’s somewhere more in the 1% range a year, not 3%, and yes even some of that is resale to resale — so it looks like it’ll take much longer for restricted resale to impact availability.

 

[katandmouse]

I think your easy / hard proposition only works at the L14 resorts. The problem with Riviera, as you do acknowledge, is that you can ONLY use those points at Riviera. So while difficulty of booking at a L14 resort becomes a reason to buy there, at Riviera I think it becomes a reason NOT to buy there because if you can't book there your points are worthless.

That’s a good point; I didn’t even think of it that way.

 

[jerseyduke]

I think your easy / hard proposition only works at the L14 resorts. The problem with Riviera, as you do acknowledge, is that you can ONLY use those points at Riviera. So while difficulty of booking at a L14 resort becomes a reason to buy there, at Riviera I think it becomes a reason NOT to buy there because if you can't book there your points are worthless.

I get that, but I was referring to difficulty at 7 months.

I understand your point, but with Riviera's sheer size, I can not see it being hard to get at 11 months(except the tower studios - I would only buy a fixed week if those were my target). I always book at 11 months. If you do not, I think what you are saying is totally true. But if you book at 11 months, the resale restriction will not be an issue, at least as I see it, if you have some flexibility with your travel. Also I go multiple times a year, so if something is not available trip A, I use it trip B. If you have rigid vacation times, then the restrictions get magnified

I for one, think they will be cheap. It is a big resort, and with some flexibility, I think 7 months should be doable. And if you can get in their at 7 months, the points have to be cheaper than SSR

I love my home resorts, but I love some other resorts too, and the option to switch out, if only occasionally, is of value to me, since i can not afford to buy at every one i like!

 

[Frederic Civish]

Other point that I have not seen made, although a small one, if you buy resale at Riviera, and your points go into holding, they are probably all but gone. I have only had to use holding points once, and I was able to find something that worked, going across all the resorts. I think it will be very hard to get something at RRV 60 days out. Hello breakage!

The holding point problem is something I hadn't even considered. Holding points are difficult to use at other resorts, and so are worth less. But at Riviera, they will be almost impossible to use, and therefore worthless!

I wonder if Disney has even considered that Holding point problem. Though they probably don't care. Just STICK IT TO THOSE OWNERS! And THAT is what Disney really thinks of Riviera (resale) owners.

 

[DaveNan]

The holding point problem is something I hadn't even considered. Holding points are difficult to use at other resorts, and so are worth less. But at Riviera, they will be almost impossible to use, and therefore worthless!

I wonder if Disney has even considered that Holding point problem. Though they probably don't care. Just STICK IT TO THOSE OWNERS! And THAT is what Disney really thinks of Riviera (resale) owners.

It extends past the holding points to any points you missed the banking window on, or banked points as you near the end of the "next UY". In general, with the only option of Riviera, which I am guessing will have tight availability inside of 7 months, more owner's are going to find themselves losing points. Currently, you can spend points on less preferred options. For resale Riviera owners, if you don't have your room reserved 7 months out, you stand to lose those points. And to me it is even worse than "stick it to the resale owners", Disney actually benefits if that happens. As points go unused, Disney can now do cash reservations with that "unused inventory". Not sure how that would work just Riviera room specifically, but I am sure the mouse has.....

 

[jerseyduke]

It extends past the holding points to any points you missed the banking window on, or banked points as you near the end of the "next UY". In general, with the only option of Riviera, which I am guessing will have tight availability inside of 7 months, more owner's are going to find themselves losing points. Currently, you can spend points on less preferred options. For resale Riviera owners, if you don't have your room reserved 7 months out, you stand to lose those points. And to me it is even worse than "stick it to the resale owners", Disney actually benefits if that happens. As points go unused, Disney can now do cash reservations with that "unused inventory". Not sure how that would work just Riviera room specifically, but I am sure the mouse has.....

Another valid point. Breakage is a cash cow for DVC

I wonder if Disney has even considered that Holding point problem. Though they probably don't care. Just STICK IT TO THOSE OWNERS! And THAT is what Disney really thinks of Riviera (resale) owners.

I can only guess, but that guess is is that they sure as heck did, and chuckled the whole time.

 

[Sanwich]

I agree that the main factor that will affect resale prices is how hard it will be to book Riviera at 7 months (combined with whatever the point cost becomes for direct Riviera, especially when the resort becomes “sold out”).

I would hesitate to assume it will be easy to book at 7 months based on the fact that Riviera is pretty large. It is compared to some resorts, but at the same time (just like all of DVC) the points sold are based on full occupancy... so once it becomes sold out, you will still have the same proportion of owners trying to get rooms.

I would base my guess on other factors, particularly aesthetic appeal and location, which would in turn increase the amount of folks trying to get in. Nothing against SSR, but as an example, SSR is further from parks and (in the opinion of some) doesn’t have particularly “special” theming or aesthetics, which means you have a lot of people trading out to stay elsewhere... which leads to a lot more availability at 7 months.

In contrast, Riviera is in a pretty decent location, and many folks seem intrigued by the decor, etc. I think this will result in more owners actually using their points AT Riviera and not trading out, leaving more of a rush at 7 months for the leftovers (that I think will also be in demand). Then, if you want to stay there, your main options besides renting are to buy direct at what will likely be insane prices or snag a significantly cheaper (but maybe not dirt cheap?) resale contract.

Sort of veering off the point, I do think/hope studios will be more available to everyone vs, say, CCV... I don’t know the exact point breakdown but I assume the lack of cabins will help.

 

[Lumpy1106]

I wouldn't be interested at all >$75. Remember the due are really high for DRR too.

One other thing; I think the points for the tower rooms are sort-of a teaser rate right now. Yes the rooms are small, but for a couple it's a reasonably good value. 1BR points however are much too high. I could easily see the points getting re-distributed later as the demand shakes out.

 

[mustinjourney]

It extends past the holding points to any points you missed the banking window on, or banked points as you near the end of the "next UY". In general, with the only option of Riviera, which I am guessing will have tight availability inside of 7 months, more owner's are going to find themselves losing points. Currently, you can spend points on less preferred options. For resale Riviera owners, if you don't have your room reserved 7 months out, you stand to lose those points. And to me it is even worse than "stick it to the resale owners", Disney actually benefits if that happens. As points go unused, Disney can now do cash reservations with that "unused inventory". Not sure how that would work just Riviera room specifically, but I am sure the mouse has.....

OR maybe riviera resale members will all become pros at RCI exchanges. I'm pretty sure you can transfer points your points to RCI inside banking window, as well as points already banked...although I'm not sure if you can transfer points in holding. Once exchanged -- you get 2 years to use them in that system.

 

[jerseyduke]

so once it becomes sold out, you will still have the same proportion of owners trying to get rooms.
...
Sort of veering off the point, I do think/hope studios will be more available to everyone vs, say, CCV... I don’t know the exact point breakdown but I assume the lack of cabins will help.

Less of a population than CCV and PVB since 25+ % of its points werent sold for very expensive Bungalows or Cabins. (25% of PVB points are Bungalows, and I think someone said CCV was over 30)
Lack of Cabins sure wont hurt.

7 months, can only wait and see. New resorts have 2 factors (at least) that skew them
1. New resort fevor. A lot of ppl may want to 'check it out'
2. While in sales, DVC is always going to have a good deal of points declared into inventory that are not yet sold.

 

[Frederic Civish]

It extends past the holding points to any points you missed the banking window on, or banked points as you near the end of the "next UY". In general, with the only option of Riviera, which I am guessing will have tight availability inside of 7 months, more owner's are going to find themselves losing points. Currently, you can spend points on less preferred options. For resale Riviera owners, if you don't have your room reserved 7 months out, you stand to lose those points. And to me it is even worse than "stick it to the resale owners", Disney actually benefits if that happens. As points go unused, Disney can now do cash reservations with that "unused inventory". Not sure how that would work just Riviera room specifically, but I am sure the mouse has.....

Yes. I really have a bad feeling about the ability of the Riviera Resale owners to use their points. I think Riviera will be very popular, both with the owners and with people trading in. And that is why I expect that there will be almost nothing available in the 0 to 7 month window. If you are a Resale Owner, the only options that I think are viable will be to schedule something as early as possible in the 11 month window, and then just be ready to rent out your scheduled reservation if things change, since you won't be able to take your points and use them elsewhere.

I know that not a lot of Riviera points have been declared. But, even though there a lot of points that have been declared, have not yet sold, Tower Studios are booking up quickly at 11 months, Standard Studios are all gone by the 7 month window, and the Preferred View Studios are booking out instantly at the 7 month window. I don't expect any of these circumstances to improve once it has all been declared and then all sold. And they will only get worse once resales start.

I agree that the main factor that will affect resale prices is how hard it will be to book Riviera at 7 months (combined with whatever the point cost becomes for direct Riviera, especially when the resort becomes “sold out”).

I would hesitate to assume it will be easy to book at 7 months based on the fact that Riviera is pretty large. It is compared to some resorts, but at the same time (just like all of DVC) the points sold are based on full occupancy... so once it becomes sold out, you will still have the same proportion of owners trying to get rooms.

I would base my guess on other factors, particularly aesthetic appeal and location, which would in turn increase the amount of folks trying to get in. Nothing against SSR, but as an example, SSR is further from parks and (in the opinion of some) doesn’t have particularly “special” theming or aesthetics, which means you have a lot of people trading out to stay elsewhere... which leads to a lot more availability at 7 months.

In contrast, Riviera is in a pretty decent location, and many folks seem intrigued by the decor, etc. I think this will result in more owners actually using their points AT Riviera and not trading out, leaving more of a rush at 7 months for the leftovers (that I think will also be in demand). Then, if you want to stay there, your main options besides renting are to buy direct at what will likely be insane prices or snag a significantly cheaper (but maybe not dirt cheap?) resale contract.

Sort of veering off the point, I do think/hope studios will be more available to everyone vs, say, CCV... I don’t know the exact point breakdown but I assume the lack of cabins will help.

I think that, especially for its size, Riviera will always be one of the hardest to book. Once the Resale Market gets going, even the Direct Owners will find that they need to book early in the 11 month window, or have nothing. And, yes, the Direct owners will be able to trade out - to other places like SSR - but it won't be easy. They say to buy where you intend to stay, and I think that will apply especially to Riviera, but even then, it will be a rat race.

OR maybe riviera resale members will all become pros at RCI exchanges. I'm pretty sure you can transfer points your points to RCI inside banking window, as well as points already banked...although I'm not sure if you can transfer points in holding. Once exchanged -- you get 2 years to use them in that system.

Can Resale Owners use RCI? I thought that was one of the Perks that Disney took away from Resale.

ADDENDUM: Okay, I looked it up, and I guess they can still use RCI. But, keep in mind, RCI charges additional fees, which I think are on the order of $300 per exchange.

 

[zavandor]

I know that not a lot of Riviera points have been declared. But, even though there a lot of points that have been declared, have not yet sold, Tower Studios are booking up quickly at 11 months, Standard Studios are all gone by the 7 month window, and the Preferred View Studios are booking out instantly at the 7 month window. I don't expect any of these circumstances to improve once it has all been declared and then all sold. And they will only get worse once resales start.

I think long term what you say will be true for Tower and standard studios, regarding preferred I think it may be more open than it currently is. Many members are buying and getting basically double points (current UY points while the resort is not open yet) and they are all willing to book their home resort. In addition to that, at 7 months a lot of members want to check out the new shiny DVC resort.
Long term, I think the reality of the point charts will hit owners: from late January to early September getting a BWV garden view is not difficult at all and fewer points in a better location. Outside fall frenzy it will not be difficult at all to book DRR.