Poll: Your Riviera Resale price

[stewart715]

I still see nothing wrong with buying Riviera right now, despite the results of this poll or the restrictions; so long as you plan on keeping it. If you get your money's worth out of it (7 years or so), then even the "low" resale purchase price is profit. It still works financially and is a beautiful resort.

Besides, with all of these new points being added to the system, resorts outside of the SSR/OKW are going to become that much harder to book at 7 months. So, depending on what time of year you travel, 7 months may not be much of an option anyways.

Also, I still argue that this poll is meaningless until the resort opens. If the Skyliner offers incredibly access to Epcot and Hollywood Studios and the resort itself is a major hit all around, resale prices might not be as low as you think. People who buy BWV or BCV now aren't buying to stay anywhere else, so what's the difference? It certainly will take something off the price but if it's a smash success, it might not be much.

 

[ELMC]

Also, I still argue that this poll is meaningless until the resort opens. If the Skyliner offers incredibly access to Epcot and Hollywood Studios and the resort itself is a major hit all around, resale prices might not be as low as you think. People who buy BWV or BCV now aren't buying to stay anywhere else, so what's the difference? It certainly will take something off the price but if it's a smash success, it might not be much.

I see what you're saying here about the resort not being open yet. That said, much of what we discuss on here is trying to be predictive, so in that light I wouldn't quite classify the poll as meaningless.

I would like to add to your comments the fact that if one wants to analyze the Riviera in a meaningful way then it is important to bifurcate the resort itself from the structures behind ownership. I am fairly certain that I will love everything about the resort. Feel, ambiance, room categories, views, location, and yes, even transportation. But it is the structures behind the contracts (both in restrictions, resale implications, and costs) that will ultimately prevent me from owning there. I think that's what this poll is trying to get at.

 

[stewart715]

I see what you're saying here about the resort not being open yet. That said, much of what we discuss on here is trying to be predictive, so in that light I wouldn't quite classify the poll as meaningless.

I would like to add to your comments the fact that if one wants to analyze the Riviera in a meaningful way then it is important to bifurcate the resort itself from the structures behind ownership. I am fairly certain that I will love everything about the resort. Feel, ambiance, room categories, views, location, and yes, even transportation. But it is the structures behind the contracts (both in restrictions, resale implications, and costs) that will ultimately prevent me from owning there. I think that's what this poll is trying to get at.

Fair points. And while trading may not mean much to me, it may mean a lot to most buyers. And ultimately that’s what will decide the price. Even if you don’t use trading personally, it is still built into the value of your contract.

 

[jarestel]

I think Riviera will sell and resell without any major problems. The resort and grounds, from what we see and hear, will be a cut above the existing Epcot resorts and the Skyliner will provide quick and easy access to 2 parks. The resort will be more of a positive than the restrictions are a negative, IMO. Most folks will buy Riviera because they want to stay at Riviera and the contract length is certainly more appealing than the diminishing years left at BWV and BCV.

 

[stewart715]

The resort and grounds, from what we see and hear, will be a cut above the existing Epcot resorts

Resort yes. Grounds no. At least location wise. The Epcot resorts have immediate access to shops, restaurants and entertainment. Riviera will be an island with or without the Skyliner. Will it sell fine? Maybe, but certainly not a matter of fact that it’s going to become a premium DVC resort like BCV. And if it’s not, resale values have a big problem.

 

[stewart715]

There’s also another factor that’s not being considered very much: the point charts. They are quite expensive. You’ll need upwards of 50% more points to stay there over BCV/BWV. That alone will keep pricing competitive. I still don’t think contract length plays a huge role (yet). 24 years is still a long time and I’m not sure it’s a factor yet in everyone’s decision to purchase (hence continually rising BCV/BWV resale values).

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I would be willing to bet that Disney will help keep the resale value inflated. They don't want a newer property to significantly decrease on the resale market and if it is too low, I foresee them buying it back to be sold to direct buyers, thus eliminating the resale restrictions. Sure, in a few years, the point value might go down from current rates (and isn't that a risk with any property in all honestly-vacations and rental are always the first and hardest hit in a recession) but I don't think that Disney would allow the sales price to hit bargain basement pricing at a fairly new resort.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in order for ROFR to come into affect, there has to be a willing buyer. You can't just go to Disney and offer to sell your contract. First you have to put it up for sale, and someone has to be willing to buy it at that price. If your price is worth more than anyone would buy it for, Disney won't be able to scoop it up at bargain prices.

 

[stewart715]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but in order for ROFR to come into affect, there has to be a willing buyer. You can't just go to Disney and offer to sell your contract. First you have to put it up for sale, and someone has to be willing to buy it at that price. If your price is worth more than anyone would buy it for, Disney won't be able to scoop it up at bargain prices.

You can sell directly to DVC at an extraordinarily low price. Though I’m not sure if that would trigger ROFR paperwork to be filed.

 

[GGGT]

..............................Once I heard about the restrictions I had no interest in buying. ...................................... I don't like what DVC is doing with the restrictions and allowing it to be part of the club as if there's no difference and I'm certainly not endorsing it with a purchase............

This, exactly.

 

[CanadaDisney05]

You can sell directly to DVC at an extraordinarily low price. Though I’m not sure if that would trigger ROFR paperwork to be filed.

So if the true market price of Riviera is really low, in order for Disney to bump it up, they would have to offer above market pricing.

 

[kanerf]

So I went ahead and plunked down for 50 points at Riviera. I know it is expensive, but location, location, etc., so I will deal with that. As for resale, can't wait to see em. Probably start seeing them late next year. I would not mind plunking down for another 50 points or so at a good price. Not worried about the restriction as I have over 300 points elsewhere anyway, both retail and resale (mostly resale).

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

So if the true market price of Riviera is really low, in order for Disney to bump it up, they would have to offer above market pricing.

If DVC were to buy back every contract below a certain price it could raise the price as long as a decent number of people did want it and would offer to pay the sellers more to clear ROFR vs crossing fingers DVC would let a lower price go thru. But DVC really has never shown a tendency to buy back everything so in good part it will depend on the number of contracts on the market, what point DVC will look at buying back and the patience or demand of the buyers in the market.

 

[AvidDisReader]

The pictures on this resort are really impressive. We were thinking of trying to book this in the future, until I looked at the point chart. This plus the high maintenance fees makes me hesitant to get fully on board with ever buying there, the restrictions just nails the decision. Just wish I was in a different economic situation so I did not need to worry about such things, but it is what it is.

 

[skier_pete]

There’s also another factor that’s not being considered very much: the point charts. They are quite expensive. You’ll need upwards of 50% more points to stay there over BCV/BWV. That alone will keep pricing competitive. I still don’t think contract length plays a huge role (yet). 24 years is still a long time and I’m not sure it’s a factor yet in everyone’s decision to purchase (hence continually rising BCV/BWV resale values).

Actually - it's the points charts that loses me interest in buying there versus elsewhere - moreso than the resale restrictions alone. I would maybe consider a low point resale buy there - but if I have to have more points - and with it more maintenance fees - to own there, I'm just not interested. Way rather trade in occasionally.

 

[rongarbutt]

I think that the point of these restrictions is to push down the resale values to a number that Disney is more comfortable paying through ROFR and then can turn around a resell them at their higher price point. They are trying to get a bigger piece of the resale market and this is how they are going to do it. Disney is currently buying SSR at $100 per point through ROFR and selling at $160. Buying BLT at $135 and selling at $225. They are making a lot of money by selling the points again. Resale restrictions will cause the price to be less had there not been restrictions, and Disney can use ROFR to get the points back a little cheaper.

 

[skier_pete]

I think that the point of these restrictions is to push down the resale values to a number that Disney is more comfortable paying through ROFR and then can turn around a resell them at their higher price point. They are trying to get a bigger piece of the resale market and this is how they are going to do it. Disney is currently buying SSR at $100 per point through ROFR and selling at $160. Buying BLT at $135 and selling at $225. They are making a lot of money by selling the points again. Resale restrictions will cause the price to be less had there not been restrictions, and Disney can use ROFR to get the points back a little cheaper.

This has occurred to me - the only flaw to this is historically Disney does not really like reselling old resorts, because it simply takes away from their quotas for the current resort - which is a much higher priority. Sure as you say they make $60 a point reselling SSR - but if that takes away from a Riviera sales that makes them $150+ a point then they are losing out. This is why they spend so much time discouraging customers from buying at the older resorts.

In addition - Disney historically doesn't ROFR actively selling resorts for this same reason - let's say Riviera drops to $100 a point on the resale market. Well, reselling a Riviera contract makes them $88 versus again the $150 they make on a new contract - this just isn't the business they want to be in typically.

Now you may be right that potentially they are changing this policy and how they are doing things, but the only reason I doubt this is the case is that they've already announced a DVC resort opening in 2021. (Reflections.) They are being very ambitious to sell Riviera out in 2 years, and buying back contract will only slow sales.

The final thing is that in Disney's ideal world - they would want to see resale contract values remain HIGH - while seeing a differential in benefits. They are a lot better off with Ploy reselling at $150 a point when they can argue "sure you could buy resale there, but buy Riviera for only $38 more per point and look at all this extra stuff you get." This is why they recently raised many of the older resorts direct prices up, not to make more money off them - but to in fact drive the resale value for those resorts up.

Where I personally think they are going is Disney may start offering "make even" deals where you pay them say $30-50 a point to take your resale contract and convert it to a full member contract. This way Disney can make money from the resale market without having to actually do anything.

 

[stewart715]

So if the true market price of Riviera is really low, in order for Disney to bump it up, they would have to offer above market pricing.

Yup. I think that's also part of their plan though. Make it really hard to sell on the resale at a price that they wouldn't take at ROFR until they inevitably come down in price and they can flip the points from $90 to $180 overnight. They will let a few squeak by so that offers are still made. My guess is that it's going to be really hard to even buy a resale contract for Riviera unless you're willing to pay more than the contract is worth.

 

[TexasChick123]

Where I personally think they are going is Disney may start offering "make even" deals where you pay them say $30-50 a point to take your resale contract and convert it to a full member contract. This way Disney can make money from the resale market without having to actually do anything.

I think so too. This is the “smart play” for them. They can charge for something we used to get for free. They’d be capturing some profit from resale without actually having to resell anything. Other timeshares do this very thing already. I don’t like it, but I think it’s whats coming too.

 

[CarolMN]

I think it is simpler. They just want to make trading (the Club), a perk attached to direct purchases. They'll eventually get there. The profit margin on direct is so much larger than reselling buybacks.

Not sure they care all that much about resale values unless it starts to impact direct sales. Having to use resale points only at one resort would be a powerful incentive for many to buy direct.

 

[Matty B13]

I think so too. This is the “smart play” for them. They can charge for something we used to get for free. They’d be capturing some profit from resale without actually having to resell anything. Other timeshares do this very thing already. I don’t like it, but I think it’s whats coming too.

Probably takes a lot of the administrative & lawyer overhead out of the profit equation.