Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[sachilles]

AS IS, how do you rank the moderates?

I've stayed in CBR and POR. Preferred CBR. However, I get the impression that CBR is the weakest of the moderates.

 

[rteetz]

AS IS, how do you rank the moderates?

I've stayed in CBR and POR. Preferred CBR. However, I get the impression that CBR is the weakest of the moderates.

I've only stayed in Riverside and French Quarter.

Coronado is a convention resort so impression of that one fluctuate. Personally I like POR the best. Yes it's spread out but I really enjoy the atmosphere.

 

[skier_pete]

So the potential scenarios I see.

Scenario 1: Build on DVC there with some amount of added amenities (pool/QS restaurant) but no park access, but sell it like a regular DVC, similar to SSR, at full buy-in price and similar nightly point value.
Problem: It likely becomes a hard sell, and also undesirable with owners.
Positive: Almost none.

Scenario 2: Build on DVC there with some amount of added amenities (pool/QS restaurant) but no park access, but sell it like a "moderate" DVC, at full/slightly lower buy-in price and lower nightly point value. (More like an OKW.)
Problem: Because the rooms are worth less points, makes the units less profitable, OR the units are built smaller, not as nice.
Positive: Lower point value property would actually be a draw for a portion of DVC owners. Similar to the lower point rooms at AKV, BWV, and BLT. So demand stays high.

Scenario 3: Build on DVC with some sort of direct park access (Epcot and/or DHS) and top line amenities (pool/TS restaurant/Fireworks view lounge). Be able to charge a typical premium buy-in price and point value to BLT. Keep mostly independent from CBR.
Problem: Cost to build and staff direct park access system for a single (small) resort or for two resorts (maybe CBR is included in this) is cost prohibitive.
Positive: Direct park access and amenities would allow sales to remain brisk and resort would be reasonably popular. If CBR itself is allowed to access park - it lifts the pricing for the resort rooms as well, helping to offset the cost of direct access.

I really think Scenario 1 is too risky for them to take on...the prospect of devaluing the overall DVC value and sales is too much. Of the two remaining, I think the third makes the most sense. I considered a fourth scenario where they set up a new true moderate DVC system independent of the existing system, but I just don't know if they would want to do that. I really think it's between Scenario 2 or 3.

 

[jade1]

???

1) I see the EPCOT resorts (including S&D) as direct access to DHS

2) S&D is often similar in price as a moderate

3) So a DVC section (like BWV...BLT) at CBR is somewhat similar IMO, The "DVC" section (BWV), and the Moderate (S&D) section.

4) No chance I would buy there (CBR DVC) without direct access though, might stay in a tower view once to check it out though

 

[crazy4wdw]

Wonder what's next after CBR is finished? The proposed Fort Wilderness DVC or maybe Bay Lake Tower 2?

Seems like Disney would be getting close to the saturation point with DVC.

 

[jade1]

So the potential scenarios I see.

Scenario 1: Build on DVC there with some amount of added amenities (pool/QS restaurant) but no park access, but sell it like a regular DVC, similar to SSR, at full buy-in price and similar nightly point value.
Problem: It likely becomes a hard sell, and also undesirable with owners.
Positive: Almost none.

Scenario 2: Build on DVC there with some amount of added amenities (pool/QS restaurant) but no park access, but sell it like a "moderate" DVC, at full/slightly lower buy-in price and lower nightly point value. (More like an OKW.)
Problem: Because the rooms are worth less points, makes the units less profitable, OR the units are built smaller, not as nice.
Positive: Lower point value property would actually be a draw for a portion of DVC owners. Similar to the lower point rooms at AKV, BWV, and BLT. So demand stays high.

Scenario 3: Build on DVC with some sort of direct park access (Epcot and/or DHS) and top line amenities (pool/TS restaurant/Fireworks view lounge). Be able to charge a typical premium buy-in price and point value to BLT. Keep mostly independent from CBR.
Problem: Cost to build and staff direct park access system for a single (small) resort or for two resorts (maybe CBR is included in this) is cost prohibitive.
Positive: Direct park access and amenities would allow sales to remain brisk and resort would be reasonably popular. If CBR itself is allowed to access park - it lifts the pricing for the resort rooms as well, helping to offset the cost of direct access.

I really think Scenario 1 is too risky for them to take on...the prospect of devaluing the overall DVC value and sales is too much. Of the two remaining, I think the third makes the most sense. I considered a fourth scenario where they set up a new true moderate DVC system independent of the existing system, but I just don't know if they would want to do that. I really think it's between Scenario 2 or 3.

Very good.

 

[sachilles]

We've wondered what the express bus transportation might lead to. Wonder if you could have a resort direct to back of the house bus stops that skip security(security would be at the CBR bus stop). That would be a perk that might sell.
You then man one security checkpoint, and effectively give access to all 4 parks on a preferential basis. If you want to go to the front gate of the park, you just go via traditional transport.

 

[skier_pete]

AS IS, how do you rank the moderates?

I've stayed in CBR and POR. Preferred CBR. However, I get the impression that CBR is the weakest of the moderates.

I've never stayed at Coronado. Stayed at POFQ and CBR and spent some time at POR. I would rank them POFQ, CBR, then POR - but they are all very close to each other and to me it's more a matter of style as to what is prefered. They don't even really compare to a DVC resort. We haven't stayed at OKW, but have stayed at SSR, and while I've called SSR "close to a moderate" DVC, it is still definitely a step above all the moderate resorts in terms of amenities and services. It's just spread out as hell like a moderate.

Call me crazy, but is there any circumstance in which Disney "improves" the overall area to a point where the resort as a whole jumps up to a quasi-Deluxe or even full-on Deluxe, justifying the DVC expenditure and not unbalancing the status quo with other DVC locations?

Not crazy - but I think this is very difficult to do. The resort is too spread out and too designed for moderate resort living. Even if you provide some sort of direct access to a park, there's parts of the resort that are going to be 20 minutes away. In additon, the rooms are all sized for moderate - you can't suddenly make all the rooms bigger. Plus, Disney is finding that it can't sell it's deluxe resorts at current pricing, which is why it keeps converting portions of them to DVC. Meanwhile the moderate resorts stay at 90-95% capacity. I just think this is extremely unlikely.

Getting superb access to Star Wars land might be just the ticket to get those DVC prices up. There are DVC resorts with pretty great access to everything BUT the Studios right now, so it makes sense if the Studios are going to be the next big thing you'd want to be putting some higher end lodging closer to it.

The problem is that it really isn't that close from CBR to DHS. Especially the end of CBR where this is being built. You are probably talking 500-1000 feet to get inside Epcot, while you would measure close to a mile to get into DHS. To give you an idea - CBR is a little further from DHS than Wilderness Lodge is from MK. While Wilderness lodge technically has "direct access" to MK, there was an existing "path" (the lake) to build the resort on - and still it takes a 15 minute boat ride. They'd have to build a mile of waterway to link to DHS. (While Epcot they might get away with a walking path, DHS they could never do that.)

 

[lockedoutlogic]

1) I see the EPCOT resorts (including S&D) as direct access to DHS

2) S&D is often similar in price as a moderate

3) So a DVC section (like BWV...BLT) at CBR is somewhat similar IMO, The "DVC" section (BWV), and the Moderate (S&D) section.

4) No chance I would buy there (CBR DVC) without direct access though, might stay in a tower view once to check it out though

Ok...I didn't get "s&d"

...but you can't use the third party hotels as a price model comparison. Disney won't do it...you shouldn't.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Wonder what's next after CBR is finished? The proposed Fort Wilderness DVC or maybe Bay Lake Tower 2?

Seems like Disney would be getting close to the saturation point with DVC.

Conversion at grand Floridian or the "poly tower" would be the smart bets

 

[skier_pete]

Wonder what's next after CBR is finished? The proposed Fort Wilderness DVC or maybe Bay Lake Tower 2?

Seems like Disney would be getting close to the saturation point with DVC.

BLT2 is I think most likely. I've heard rumor that the convention center would be taken out, and a new tower put in it's place as it would give more firework/MK view rooms. Obviously this is likely 4-5 years away. Part of the reason this can't be "next" is because dates are booked 2 years in advance. This CBR resort is at least 2 years out.

Disney will stop building DVC when people stop buying it. I am an owner (through resale) but am not fooling myself with how DVC works. Disney pockets 50 years of profit on a resort in the 2-3 years it takes to sell it out. Then the expenses of maintaining the resort are paid completely through the owner's annual dues. This is a huge profit margin for Disney, and only pays off for new owners after 10+ years of visits. They aren't going to stop until no-one buys it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I've only stayed in Riverside and French Quarter.

Coronado is a convention resort so impression of that one fluctuate. Personally I like POR the best. Yes it's spread out but I really enjoy the atmosphere.

All 3 of those have a better design to house a DVC than Caribbean.

This whole idea seems "lipstick on a pig" at first glance

 

[wilkeliza]

Ok not sure if someone brought this up but I keep seeing speculation of the "3rd entrance". Being very familiar with the back stage areas of Epcot I can be pretty confident they won't add a water way entry or even a foot entry there. The biggest reason being that the water way they would connect is where the fireworks storage building is. There is a ton of backstage work that happens there and would be difficult to put somewhere else. Techs are out in that open space for hours loading the barges and getting the fireworks show ready. That backstage route also is used to get World Showcase CMs from location to location behind the scenes so a cast shuttle goes through there. It would require a lot of extra reworking and potentially an addition of a bridge for what would probably be lack luster gains to attendance of Epcot.

 

[Moliphino]

AS IS, how do you rank the moderates?

I've stayed in CBR and POR. Preferred CBR. However, I get the impression that CBR is the weakest of the moderates.

I've stayed at all of them (though I haven't been to POFQ for at least 10 years). CBR would be my least favorite, mostly based on sheer size. There are far too many bus stops. The lack of elevators was also annoying when hauling luggage up to a second floor room.
We choose CSR most trips, though that's at least in part because POFQ and POR are usually not included with free dining. I would love to get back to POFQ sometime, it was the first place we ever stayed and we loved it.

 

[jade1]

Ok...I didn't get "s&d"

...but you can't use the third party hotels as a price model comparison. Disney won't do it...you shouldn't.

I shouldn't? I do it all the time. Direct access isn't always $400 a night was my point.

If S&D is $199, then the EPCOT DVC models have to deal with that, same as at CBR. That is all.

Like others have said-they could limit CBR DVC to direct access.

By "price" issue...I mean that the current starting hotel rate for "direct" or "exclusive" access to a park is $400.00 a night....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Ok not sure if someone brought this up but I keep seeing speculation of the "3rd entrance". Being very familiar with the back stage areas of Epcot I can be pretty confident they won't add a water way entry or even a foot entry there. The biggest reason being that the water way they would connect is where the fireworks storage building is. There is a ton of backstage work that happens there and would be difficult to put somewhere else. Techs are out in that open space for hours loading the barges and getting the fireworks show ready. That backstage route also is used to get World Showcase CMs from location to location behind the scenes so a cast shuttle goes through there. It would require a lot of extra reworking and potentially an addition of a bridge for what would probably be lack luster gains to attendance of Epcot.

Agree...the only way "direct access" would work is if it ties into the "crescent lake" canal area...thereby combing all the hotels and using the existing gates/access points".

They can't just dredge a canal and have you popup in Italy. That doesn't work logistically work for 1000 reasons.

I think we need to accept what this is: them attempting to slap another add on at what they consider to be the "most attractive spot" and then trying to convince us that Caribbean is "deluxe" or "deluxe lite"...no direct access. Maybe a "quick shuttle bus" or some other headfake.

 

[Joben]

I really think it's between Scenario 2 or 3.

So I'm thinking they don't go the cheap route and instead try to squeeze every dollar out they can.

I'm thinking they take it even further and theme the new tower with a Pirates of the Caribbean theme. This would be visible from Epcot and they mix it in by expanding with a Caribbean land between China and Germany.

They bring in the high end draws such as the TS, Fireworks viewing, Storm along Bay level pool, and most importantly direct access to Epcot.

I'm on the fence about whether they allow the CBR guests access to Epcot. It makes sense if they want to increase the prices at CBR, but it devalues the uniqueness of being a DVC member there. The more I think about it though the more I think they do allow it. They can raise the prices and desirability of staying there.

 

[zemra406]

The problem is that it really isn't that close from CBR to DHS. Especially the end of CBR where this is being built. You are probably talking 500-1000 feet to get inside Epcot, while you would measure close to a mile to get into DHS.

Agreed it would be a long walk to DHS. However, call me crazy but if you zoom in on Google maps Earth view there is what appears to be a walking path through the woods there today that connects Victory Way near CBR to the DHS parking lot. Would be a long walk but doesn't seem too much further than current walk from Beach Club to the studios.

 

[dlavender]

The interesting thing to see for me will be what they do with amenities. CBR has the best pool area out of all of the mods. If they are taking rooms out to put DVC in, they wouldn't need another signature pool. It's not like they are doubling resort capacity. But they have to offer DVC something extra, is a new room enough? Or a new room plus rooftop firework viewing? If they can get by with spending the least bit of CapEx, they will. The least expensive route is to not add any amenities and just lower point total per week to 60. That's only 16 less than OKW. Not too far out to tilt the scales, and it keeps the margins.

 

[rteetz]

The interesting thing to see for me will be what they do with amenities. CBR has the best pool area out of all of the mods. If they are taking rooms out to put DVC in, they wouldn't need another signature pool. It's not like they are doubling resort capacity. But they have to offer DVC something extra, is a new room enough? Or a new room plus rooftop firework viewing? If they can get by with spending the least bit of CapEx, they will. The least expensive route is to not add any amenities and just lower point total per week to 60. That's only 16 less than OKW. Not too far out to tilt the scales, and it keeps the margins.

My guess is the DVC area gets at least a quiet pool.