Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[jade1]

When they put in the application for a permit such as this, it is a modification of the "master permit" issued by the South Florida Water Management District which covers stormwater and wetlands for the entire development (all the property they own). It is not a building permit or anything like that. All of the canals, 'lakes', and ponds are part of the existing permit controlling drainage and stormwater for the entirety of the WDW property, so when a new project proposes additional construction (new roads, new buildings, new parking - anything that is considered new "impervious" area), they have to modify or provide new drainage ponds to treat and store the run-off water from rain events. The Water Management Districts frown on the dredging of new canals or waterways to connect existing waterways as these result in degradation of water quality, not to mention that it would alter the existing master stormwater system that is in place. Disney's drainage system outflows across I-4 and is part of the drainage basin that ultimately flows into the everglades, so it is subject to stringent water quality standards, which they take very seriously. Disney has been able to make some water modifications for some boat use in the past, but those are pretty much only in closed loop areas that do not have a positive outflow from the system.

So a bridge then.

 

[dlavender]

Right - there's the issue. However, if it sells DVC points, then maybe. Realizing the DVC dues would essentially have to pay for it. Nothing DVC does comes back to the resort, everything after the initial construction is paid by the annual dues. That's the reason the resorts are often piggybacked onto the existing resorts - it reduces the cost of infrastructure. Things such as housekeeping/laundry instead of having to have their own they can share facilities with the resorts. The owners then pay for their portion of the operation. It actually is a win for the resorts too as it likely reduces expenses.

If a third entrance was for the DVC resort only, it would have to be fully funded by DVC. If they allowed CBR guests to use it, then it would be partly DVC funded, and partly resort funded.

Disney is in an interesting position with DVC. The last non-monorail resort to go on sale was Animal Kingdom Villas - which opened around $104 a point in 2007. BLT opened at $112 a point in 2009. Between 2009 and 2014 (6 years) DVC prices skyrocketed from $112 to $160 per point (a 43 % increase in 6 years). Put in that time they are primarily selling BLT, VGF and then the Poly, which are extremely desirable locations. (Probably most desirable.) In addition, they make the rooms more expensive (# of points per night) making the costs much, much higher, and of course the profits.

Even so, the Poly has sold somewhat slower than expected. Not badly, just not as fast as they thought.

Now they are moving to a less desirable location - Wilderness Lodge. Sure it is fairly easy access to MK, but it's not a monorail resort. Will they lower the price? Unlikely. However, they will likely have to have a lower point per night number, making it less profitable.

Then we come to CBR. With no entrance to Epcot - CBR is not much different than SSR or OKW or AKV. No direct park access. By 2019 you are likely looking at a $190 per point price point. How do you sell that to people? At the Poly you can say "Look at what you are saving versus a $700 a night hotel room." Building next to CBR, suddenly you are comparing to a $200 per night hotel room? So, do you make the resort cheaper? Or do you add perceived value to the resort in some way to make it better than CBR? This can be done but only in two ways (1) improved amenities or (2) direct access to park. Without these two things - selling this resort will be a quite difficult sell, UNLESS Disney decides to start a new 2nd tier DVC - a complicated decision.

Sorry to go on so long, but I find this whole thing very fascinating with exactly what's going to happen.

I think the only way to make this work and uphold the DVC concept is to lower point totals at this location. But they would have to drastically do so.
The closest comparison, IMO, is OKW. Looking at a value week, you need 76 points. Rough math, using 40 years as the term, and $160/point, factoring in a $6 maint per point, you are paying very roughly $760 for that week. Thats $127/night for 6 nights. Right now if you book that same week, its $231/night. About $100/night in savings.
Assuming they would want to keep the savings close, at least in a presentation, you would want to show that CBR DVC saved you something. Let's go with $70/night. That same week at CBR costs $169/night. The math would have to work out to $100/night using a DVC week. That would mean, with a $6 pp maintanence fee, if the point total was the same, 76, the buy in would need to be $5760/76 = $76 per point. No way could they devalue the system like that. Instead, they would have to make the week 60 points. This assumes a $6 pp maint fee.
So the question is do they want to have the sub category resort as it is and charge 60 points a week for the new tower, or upgrade it and charge OKW rates? The more I look at it, the more the whole idea really makes a lot of sense. You would pay $24000 for a 40 year term of 60 points per year. Or go OKW for $30,400. Not too far off, and opens up a new segment.
That was way too much analytics....

 

[jade1]

I think the only way to make this work and uphold the DVC concept is to lower point totals at this location. But they would have to drastically do so.
The closest comparison, IMO, is OKW. Looking at a value week, you need 76 points. Rough math, using 40 years as the term, and $160/point, factoring in a $6 maint per point, you are paying very roughly $760 for that week. Thats $127/night for 6 nights. Right now if you book that same week, its $231/night. About $100/night in savings.
Assuming they would want to keep the savings close, at least in a presentation, you would want to show that CBR DVC saved you something. Let's go with $70/night. That same week at CBR costs $169/night. The math would have to work out to $100/night using a DVC week. That would mean, with a $6 pp maintanence fee, if the point total was the same, 76, the buy in would need to be $5760/76 = $76 per point. No way could they devalue the system like that. Instead, they would have to make the week 60 points. This assumes a $6 pp maint fee.
So the question is do they want to have the sub category resort as it is and charge 60 points a week for the new tower, or upgrade it and charge OKW rates? The more I look at it, the more the whole idea really makes a lot of sense. You would pay $24000 for a 40 year term of 60 points per year. Or go OKW for $30,400. Not too far off, and opens up a new segment.
That was way too much analytics....

Some kind of entrance to EPCOT yes, otherwise a Moderate DVC IMO. A tower looking into EPCOT sounds great, but from EPCOT might look odd. I would prefer "access" over height.

 

[LaidBackDad]

I think I should get a cookie or something for my prediction in the: Happy Disney 2017 thread:

Happy Disney 2017

 

[Missyrose]

But doesn't this present a similar problem as SSR? You create a resort where there's little demand during the home resort booking period (sure, some people will want to own there for "cheaper" trips), but it creates a flood of points that people will use to book at other resorts, making it that much harder to switch resorts at seven months.

 

[sachilles]

I think I should get a cookie or something for my prediction in the: Happy Disney 2017 thread:

Happy Disney 2017

I think I need a cookie as well
http://www.disboards.com/threads/happy-disney-2017.3568431/page-2#post-56920902

 

[dlavender]

But doesn't this present a similar problem as SSR? You create a resort where there's little demand during the home resort booking period (sure, some people will want to own there for "cheaper" trips), but it creates a flood of points that people will use to book at other resorts, making it that much harder to switch resorts at seven months.

Good point....

I also wonder if having a lower point tier for CBR will lead to a lot of 2-3 day stays from people looking to extend their vacation, or save some points for another year?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

The Rubicon is Right this way, General Caesar

 

[LaidBackDad]

But doesn't this present a similar problem as SSR? You create a resort where there's little demand during the home resort booking period (sure, some people will want to own there for "cheaper" trips), but it creates a flood of points that people will use to book at other resorts, making it that much harder to switch resorts at seven months.

Not anymore than another new DVC built at any other location. If there is new or easier access with a canal / bridge / light rail / new entrance it will be hugely popular home resort with the F&W crowd. It may actually be the other way around with other resort members flooding CBR DVC.

 

[jade1]

But doesn't this present a similar problem as SSR? You create a resort where there's little demand during the home resort booking period (sure, some people will want to own there for "cheaper" trips), but it creates a flood of points that people will use to book at other resorts, making it that much harder to switch resorts at seven months.

If in the program as a mod, there may be point "saving" interest from others. Depending on the points chart of course.

But yes, own DVC resorts you want to stay at and preplan-then move if available to others at 7 months if desired/available, but be happy with what you have in case.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think I should get a cookie or something for my prediction in the: Happy Disney 2017 thread:

Happy Disney 2017

I ate your cookie...

...this falls under the "bad news is not good news" category.

 

[Golfjbc89]

At the Poly you can say "Look at what you are saving versus a $700 a night hotel room." Building next to CBR, suddenly you are comparing to a $200 per night hotel room? So, do you make the resort cheaper? Or do you add perceived value to the resort in some way to make it better than CBR?

They can't lower the price of the hotel, because it doesn't affect just this 1 hotel, it affects all moderates. Also the Values aren't that much different in price point at $100-110/night, so there isn't the amount of wiggle room vs a deluxe. It seems to me they will try and keep the price point about on par with where it is, MAYBE willing to drop it a few points and then having lower points for stays.

Its also interesting that they will have multi-floor buildings. from everything ive seen CBR is mostly 2 story buildings would they go higher for the DVC section? they could make a cool rooftop bar for fireworks viewing that is DVC only like they did at BLT. Also if they have larger rooms (3 plus bedrooms) at a reasonable point price, i think that would help them sell out quickly.

 

[skier_pete]

They can't lower the price of the hotel, because it doesn't affect just this 1 hotel, it affects all moderates. Also the Values aren't that much different in price point at $100-110/night, so there isn't the amount of wiggle room vs a deluxe. It seems to me they will try and keep the price point about on par with where it is, MAYBE willing to drop it a few points and then having lower points for stays. .

That's what I meant by make the resort cheaper...they have to make the DVC resort cheaper.

I think the only way to make this work and uphold the DVC concept is to lower point totals at this location. But they would have to drastically do so.
The closest comparison, IMO, is OKW. Looking at a value week, you need 76 points. Rough math, using 40 years as the term, and $160/point, factoring in a $6 maint per point, you are paying very roughly $760 for that week. Thats $127/night for 6 nights. Right now if you book that same week, its $231/night. About $100/night in savings.
Assuming they would want to keep the savings close, at least in a presentation, you would want to show that CBR DVC saved you something. Let's go with $70/night. That same week at CBR costs $169/night. The math would have to work out to $100/night using a DVC week. That would mean, with a $6 pp maintanence fee, if the point total was the same, 76, the buy in would need to be $5760/76 = $76 per point. No way could they devalue the system like that. Instead, they would have to make the week 60 points. This assumes a $6 pp maint fee.
So the question is do they want to have the sub category resort as it is and charge 60 points a week for the new tower, or upgrade it and charge OKW rates? The more I look at it, the more the whole idea really makes a lot of sense. You would pay $24000 for a 40 year term of 60 points per year. Or go OKW for $30,400. Not too far off, and opens up a new segment.
That was way too much analytics....

Yes, I agree. They would have to essentially make the rooms the lowest point rooms in the DVC system. Probably starting out at 7 or 8 points a night. The problem is construction costs remain the same, so unless they shrink the room sizes as well and pack more rooms in the same footprint...and that's a whole nother problem.

But doesn't this present a similar problem as SSR? You create a resort where there's little demand during the home resort booking period (sure, some people will want to own there for "cheaper" trips), but it creates a flood of points that people will use to book at other resorts, making it that much harder to switch resorts at seven months.

This is olny a problem if they make the point totals high like SSR. If the point totals are low, you'll get the opposite effect. DVC members looking for a cheaper nights stay will be flocking there. Not everyone, but people that can't afford a 1 or 2 bedroom unit normally will flock there. Why I am so curious to see what they do.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Caribbean is all 2 story buildings...64 rooms in a "figure 8" pattern... 33 buildings

 

[lockedoutlogic]

First:

IF they're gonna go "direct access"...which I think is a fool's bet...tunneling onto mgm near pop would be the way to go...not onto Epcot.

Second...the only way this flys without blowing the whole model up is if they go cheap point chart...6 a night. Which means it will be mobbed by point shavers.

And old key west was 8 for years...and even though it was prototype/stripped its far better than Caribbean from a number of angles.

Did I ever mention I worked the operations center at Caribbean and could walk the whole grounds blindfolded? Funny how that changes your outlook

 

[Dean Marino]

As a DVC owner I find this entirely fascinating as to how this gets handled. Do we get the rumored "moderate DVC"? (There was much discussion of how this could possibly work.) Or do they build a normal "Deluxe" DVC at an existing moderate property providing extra amenities exclusive to the DVC guests. Some suggested (myself included) a lower per point DVC resort could be used to offset the excessively high prices that DVC now charges.



This IS the most interesting part - the replacement of the Barbados section - this is the closest section to the main entrance to the resort and as such is the closest to Epcot. Some rumors early on said that they were going to connect the new DVC resort through a back entrance to Epcot via canal - though more recent rumors said this was false. Expect those rumors to return now! Either way, a tower building located here could also provide fantastic view of Illuminations on the upper floors. I would not be surprised by this at all - and for it to be a selling point in the future, even if they don't build the "3rd entrance".

See your "property description" a part of your CONTRACT. If it's not part of your property description? You are responsible for shared facility costs.... nothing else.
We just went through all of this at WL.

 

[rteetz]

Caribbean is all 2 story buildings...64 rooms in a "figure 8" pattern... 33 buildings

The new big building will be a tower. We are probably looking at 5+ stories. Several buildings are being taken out during the expansion as well.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Lol!!!

Barbados is awful!!! "For your $25,000 minimum upfront purchase...it's only a "brisk" 15 minute walk to your food court and it's salty patrons..."

This is like an April fools joke. Caribbean was an Awful - granted prototype - design...building a tower in the front sinkhole makes no damn sense...the only way it does is if you build a standalone "compound" with dedicated facilities to the south/west.


Oh I can't wait...for the "we love it there and feel it's well worth the $180 pp..."

Roll it up and burn it. They can't build a tower smacked in the original footprint without decreasing the quality of the whole program.

 

[momandmousefan]

Here's a REALLY crazy thought. Could they potentially be thinking of connecting it more easily to the STUDIOS? With the expansion of Star Wars on that side and the revamping of the entry to the Studios being done to move it to Osceola Parkway/Victory Way, perhaps they are working on ways to connect Caribbean Beach and Art of Animation. I thought there were plans to fill in wetlands between the park and those resorts (and move some to the other side of the park) The potential view of Star Wars fireworks is even better than Epcot depending on location in the resort.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Here's a REALLY crazy thought. Could they potentially be thinking of connecting it more easily to the STUDIOS? With the expansion of Star Wars on that side and the revamping of the entry to the Studios being done to move it to Osceola Parkway/Victory Way, perhaps they are working on ways to connect Caribbean Beach and Art of Animation. I thought there were plans to fill in wetlands between the park and those resorts (and move some to the other side of the park) The potential view of Star Wars fireworks is even better than Epcot depending on location in the resort.

That's not crazy...that makes the most sense...you connect the canals...or a rail to the canals at the entrance to mgm...that's all being reworked anyway.

But...there is the "price" issue...