Newbie Considering DVC

[havoc315]

Some thoughts in reply to your situation:

The 2042 contracts are a no-go for me at this point. I'm about the same age as you. So it's not about whether I plan on using a contract for 30+ years. While I don't advocate trying to calculate DVC down to the penny for best value, it's just so obvious that the 2042 Beach Club contracts are bad values. It's a question of having something worthless in 20 years, versus having a contract that you can still re-sale for thousands of dollars. And when you factor that into your purchase -- Basically, it makes it very hard to even break even on a Beach Club contract. If you don't hate renting points, renting points would ultimately be cheaper than buying a Beach Club contract. Especially if you're not 100% sure if you want to go every single year for the next 20 years...

And that brings me to your comment about other vacations you want to take: We did not buy DVC when our kids were young, because it would have eaten so much of our vacation budget, that it would limit non-Disney vacation. We did buy more recently with our kids as teens -- Because your vacation budget has grown so that we could afford DVC and non-Disney vacations. I would recommend against buying DVC unless either -- You're comfortable committing to primarily/only vacationing at Disney for the foreseeable future, OR, you can afford to take the non-Disney vacations you want, even while tying up so much money in DVC. If buying DVC means giving up your dream vacation to Europe, and giving up your other summer weekend trips, I wouldn't do it.

Poly is a good value. Long contract, reasonable dues. They really aren't ROFRing Poly right now, so you should be able to get a decent price. The studios are huge. While it's not as optimal for F&W as Boardwalk and Beach Club, it is a short walk to the Epcot monorail. So arguably, it's the best non-Epcot resort for F&W.

 

[LilyJC]

Thoughts please?

Love the consideration you’re taking in approaching this purchase. DVC is certainly a luxury purchase, and I personally don’t recommend putting that type of money out there unless you’ll be 100% happy with your home resort. I’m definitely team buy where you want to stay. I just turned 41, but BCV is our top pick at WDW (we own at a couple others) and we always spend part of our trips there. 19 years is still a looooong time, and IMO it’s silly to go on about the value long term. Even with 5/10 years left on the contract, people will still want to stay at BCV. The last time I added points to our BCV stash in 2020, I cringed at the price per point I was paying but I have no regrets; especially now that prices are even higher. All that to say a small BCV contract is a great place to start (IMO of course )!

 

[shreddedshoe]

I wish you best of luck as you consider this purchase. You mentioned in your OP about your husband not being 100% on board. Seems like he likes some aspects about Disney and the trips, but if he will share in the effort to pay the dues and the purchase price (with the dues likely the longer term concern) then I would make sure he is excited about this purchase before making the jump. For my wife and I, we both are super excited about going down this path (just got our first points in the past few months). She even has agreed to go back to work part time (the kiddos are growing up so now is a good time to do so too) to help pay for some of this madness. Sounds like you are already factoring in dues and increases (they could double in the next 10 to 15 years). Unless the purchase and the dues are trivial for your budget/plans in the near and long future, I'd make sure all who are making the commitment are excited before doing so.

Yes, definitely a consideration as he likes to focus more on Epcot and the food festivals than the other parks. This recent trip, his favorite days were our World Showcase day and our resort day/Disney Springs for Cirque du Soleil and dinner afterwards. We may start to do adult trips in the fall that focus on F&W and then in Spring or Summer with our daughter for everything else or possibly even just mom/daughter trips...which we already do quite a bit of. I'm the planner, so he just wants me to tell him what, when and where...he get's into it at the last minute. But this is why I would consider a BCV contract to make sure we have a better chance of securing a reservation in the fall for F&W. He would be definitely be on board with that. But, yes, I'm still debating all this and considering all options. Thank you for your thoughts...everyone's comments are so helpful!

 

[shreddedshoe]

Some thoughts in reply to your situation:

The 2042 contracts are a no-go for me at this point. I'm about the same age as you. So it's not about whether I plan on using a contract for 30+ years. While I don't advocate trying to calculate DVC down to the penny for best value, it's just so obvious that the 2042 Beach Club contracts are bad values. It's a question of having something worthless in 20 years, versus having a contract that you can still re-sale for thousands of dollars. And when you factor that into your purchase -- Basically, it makes it very hard to even break even on a Beach Club contract. If you don't hate renting points, renting points would ultimately be cheaper than buying a Beach Club contract. Especially if you're not 100% sure if you want to go every single year for the next 20 years...

And that brings me to your comment about other vacations you want to take: We did not buy DVC when our kids were young, because it would have eaten so much of our vacation budget, that it would limit non-Disney vacation. We did buy more recently with our kids as teens -- Because your vacation budget has grown so that we could afford DVC and non-Disney vacations. I would recommend against buying DVC unless either -- You're comfortable committing to primarily/only vacationing at Disney for the foreseeable future, OR, you can afford to take the non-Disney vacations you want, even while tying up so much money in DVC. If buying DVC means giving up your dream vacation to Europe, and giving up your other summer weekend trips, I wouldn't do it.

Poly is a good value. Long contract, reasonable dues. They really aren't ROFRing Poly right now, so you should be able to get a decent price. The studios are huge. While it's not as optimal for F&W as Boardwalk and Beach Club, it is a short walk to the Epcot monorail. So arguably, it's the best non-Epcot resort for F&W.

You make very good points and it's exactly what gives me pause about BC. We would however definitely like to stay there if we are going to F&W in the fall and therefore why I would consider a contract there. After just staying at the Poly and experiencing the monorail to Epcot, my husband preferred the access from BC as well as the skyliner and ferry to HS. If it were just up to him, he would probably only stay at BC and just go to Epcot every time...that's really his thing. I can go either way. I do like the Epcot access from BC, but I loved the Poly. And the more I consider my options and read all the comments here, I have to say, I may be leaning more towards Poly over BC...and for the reasons you mention. I would be lying if I said the 2042 expiration doesn't bother me at all. And yeah, you're right, I don't know if we will go every year for the next 20 years...it's where we are at right now...but I can't predict what will happen 5 or 10 years from now. And that was my main con with BC...if we find we just aren't really doing Disney anymore in 10 years am I really going to be able to unload a contract with 10 years left on it...probably not.

As far as our other vacations, trips I was taking before we had our daughter were heavy on hiking/active, outdoor stuff. We still do that, but not as intense..closer to home stuff at the moment. We boat/kayak/hike/camp, but more day trips or overnighters and honestly, my husband isn't as into that stuff anymore as much as I am. As our daughter get's older, I can see going back to doing more of that type of trip...even if it's just her and myself...but I honestly don't know if she will be into that. It's my hope, but who knows. Disney is a recent endeavor for us and one that I hadn't counted on being so into. I do believe it will become a regular part of our vacation habit, but as you said, "tying up so much money in DVC" is a concern for sure.

I agree with you that the Poly is a great alternative to an Epcot resort if we couldn't get something in that area...some would say Riviera would be better...but I really like the Poly and it meets our needs pretty well. I don't know if all three of us would be ok in a studio elsewhere though...Poly studios are big. We were very comfortable there, but I do want to try a 1 bedroom. I'm just not sure how much it bothers me if I were to buy there and those points end up being restricted.

Still much to think about. I appreciate your view points, thank you.

 

[shreddedshoe]

Love the consideration you’re taking in approaching this purchase. DVC is certainly a luxury purchase, and I personally don’t recommend putting that type of money out there unless you’ll be 100% happy with your home resort. I’m definitely team buy where you want to stay. I just turned 41, but BCV is our top pick at WDW (we own at a couple others) and we always spend part of our trips there. 19 years is still a looooong time, and IMO it’s silly to go on about the value long term. Even with 5/10 years left on the contract, people will still want to stay at BCV. The last time I added points to our BCV stash in 2020, I cringed at the price per point I was paying but I have no regrets; especially now that prices are even higher. All that to say a small BCV contract is a great place to start (IMO of course )!

This is all starting to make my brain hurt, lol! I think 19 yrs is a long time too and I know my husband would be disappointed if we couldn't stay at BC if we were going in the fall for F&W. Especially since a fall F&W trip would potentially be an adult only trip and only for a couple of days. I don't want to do have to do a split stay when we are only there for 2 nights...hence why I would consider BC to give me that 11 mos advantage. I know PVB would give me the biggest bang for the buck, but I'm not really sure how I feel about buying in there and ending up having my points restricted. I love PVB as it is now, so the new tower isn't necessarily a con..there's not enough information about it to know if I would like it...but it would be nice to be able to have access to a one bedroom there since I do love the rest of the resort and the location. I don't know. It's not like we're never going to Disney again if we don't buy into DVC. But now that we have experienced staying in a villa, we really don't want to stay anywhere else. I wouldn't book a villa directly through Disney, and while I had a good experience renting points, it's not what I really want to keep doing. I want control over my reservation. If only I had unlimited $$$! Thank you for giving me more to think about...I really do value all these opinions and responses!

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I think you should look for a small BC resale contract and then add on Poly 2.0 if and when the restrictions are announced. You may not be able to SELL your BC points in the next 20 years, but you certainly will be able to RENT those points out at a nice profit every year until they expire. I don't think that's a detriment at all! People will always want BC for F&W and race events. You could rent the points to cover dues or fund splurge trips somewhere else. Then you're not locked into WDW for all vacation needs to be met, and you don't have to sweat the contract losing value.

 

[havoc315]

You make very good points and it's exactly what gives me pause about BC. We would however definitely like to stay there if we are going to F&W in the fall and therefore why I would consider a contract there. After just staying at the Poly and experiencing the monorail to Epcot, my husband preferred the access from BC as well as the skyliner and ferry to HS. If it were just up to him, he would probably only stay at BC and just go to Epcot every time...that's really his thing. I can go either way. I do like the Epcot access from BC, but I loved the Poly. And the more I consider my options and read all the comments here, I have to say, I may be leaning more towards Poly over BC...and for the reasons you mention. I would be lying if I said the 2042 expiration doesn't bother me at all. And yeah, you're right, I don't know if we will go every year for the next 20 years...it's where we are at right now...but I can't predict what will happen 5 or 10 years from now. And that was my main con with BC...if we find we just aren't really doing Disney anymore in 10 years am I really going to be able to unload a contract with 10 years left on it...probably not.

As far as our other vacations, trips I was taking before we had our daughter were heavy on hiking/active, outdoor stuff. We still do that, but not as intense..closer to home stuff at the moment. We boat/kayak/hike/camp, but more day trips or overnighters and honestly, my husband isn't as into that stuff anymore as much as I am. As our daughter get's older, I can see going back to doing more of that type of trip...even if it's just her and myself...but I honestly don't know if she will be into that. It's my hope, but who knows. Disney is a recent endeavor for us and one that I hadn't counted on being so into. I do believe it will become a regular part of our vacation habit, but as you said, "tying up so much money in DVC" is a concern for sure.

I agree with you that the Poly is a great alternative to an Epcot resort if we couldn't get something in that area...some would say Riviera would be better...but I really like the Poly and it meets our needs pretty well. I don't know if all three of us would be ok in a studio elsewhere though...Poly studios are big. We were very comfortable there, but I do want to try a 1 bedroom. I'm just not sure how much it bothers me if I were to buy there and those points end up being restricted.

Still much to think about. I appreciate your view points, thank you.

Based on your reply, I'd make 2 recommendations:

1 -- If Beach Club is truly your first choice, and especially if you're not 99.99% sure you want to go every year for the next 20 years, then consider just renting points. Renting points will ultimately be cheaper than buying Beach Club, even resale.
2 -- If you do want to own, strongly consider Riviera direct. The studios are second largest on property -- just slightly smaller than Poly, much bigger than Beach Club. Direct pricing, with incentives, is just slightly higher than buying Poly re-sale. Your direct points are unrestricted. Considering the length of the contract, there will be retained re-sale value for a long time. Meaning, RIV ultimately would be much cheaper than Beach Club. (After 20 years, Beach Club will be worthless. After 20 years, Riv can still give you another 28 years of vacations OR can be re-sold probably for close to what you paid for it, in the first place). We have stayed at RIV for Food and Wine -- The skyliner makes access during the day and evening a pleasure 98% of the time. Yes, a large thunderstorm can shut down the skyliner. And the skyliner can be a mess 5 minutes after fireworks end. (Good strategy is to skip the last 5 minutes of fireworks, at which point the skyliner is still a pleasure). But Riviera is my favorite Epcot/DHS area resort for a long list of reasons. And financially, it makes the most sense.

So if Beach Club is your first choice -- I do believe in staying where you want to stay, but renting points may be better than buying. If owning in the Epcot area is your first choice, I'd urge you to look at RIviera.

 

[Nursemanit]

Your not risk free with buying BC now- your kinda in the yellow zone ( but closer to green than red)

1. Forget booking BC at 7 months - that may happen some years but the odds of a week at BC @7 months are poor. This should simplify the equation.

2. You only have 18 use years ( not 19) at BC left ( 2022 is booked and there are no 2042 points)

3. Assuming a 1 week November stay in a 1 br each year, you need 250 points BC. so 45 k is the buy in or $10 per point (4500 points) then add maintenance you are just under $18 per point. So you come in under renting by about $750 to 1k a year.

4. Stop worrying about the end date if you are saving $750 to 1k each year. You could save up to 15k vs. renting points over the life of this contract. Also the value will not likely not drop to zero as long as there are points left.

5. if you wanted to skip years you will not break even renting when taxes are considered ( hense the risk)

The math is tight - so if that is too much risk consider BW since it is cheaper - or for the lowest risk RR Direct ( PVB unlike BC can be usually be rented at 7 months )

 

[havoc315]

3. Assuming a 1 week November stay in a 1 br each year, you need 250 points BC. so 45 k is the buy in or $10 per point (4500 points) then add maintenance you are just under $18 per point. So you come in under renting by about $750 to 1k a year.

Ahh... But that ignores the fact that you had to commit $45k up front as opposed to over time. Paying $2,500 per year isn't the same as paying $45,000 up front.
In fact, if you simply put that $45,000 in a safe investment with a 3% return, and then withdrew $2,500 per year: Then after 18 years, you would STILL have $18,000 in the bank. Now, since renting points may cost a bit more, you may have to withdraw more than $2500 per month. More below:

So the cost of buying: $45,000 + $36,000 in maintenance fees = $81,000
Cost of renting 250 points, every year for 18 years, at $21 per point, with simply saving that initial $45,000 -- So -- We withdraw $3250 per year, then pay another $2,000 per year, for $5250 in rental costs. (As opposed to simply paying $2,000 in MF per year) --- Total cost -- $44,500 (you would still have $500 left, after 18 years of withdrawals. If you invested more aggressively for a 5% return, you would have $17,000 left after 18 years). So total cost at 3% return rate, by renting: $80,500 (slightly cheaper than buying).
Total cost at 5$ return rate: $64,000 ($17,000 cheaper than buying!)

Now, that assumes you go EVERY Year, using ALL 250 points every year. But say you skip a couple of the years.... Then renting becomes even cheaper.

So basically, best case scenario of buying -- It's about the same cost as renting.
Worst case of buying -- Renting points is MASSIVELY cheaper.

4. Stop worrying about the end date if you are saving $750 to 1k each year. You could save up to 15k vs. renting points over the life of this contract. Also the value will not likely not drop to zero as long as there are points left.

5. if you wanted to skip years you will not break even renting when taxes are considered ( hense the risk)

The math is tight - so if that is too much risk consider BW since it is cheaper - or for the lowest risk RR Direct ( PVB unlike BC can be usually be rented at 7 months )

 

[Princess Merida]

I had not thought about suggesting BWV as @Nursemanit did. What is it that your husband loves about BCV? If it's the proximity to Epcot and being on crescent lake then Boardwalk may work for you guys. If it's stormalong bay there's no match, though I do personally like Boardwalk's slide better than any other I've been on at any Disney resort including Beach Club's. Boardwalk is due for a full refurb in 2023 so they will likely be getting the murphy beds and the rooms will be all new. (Can't wait for this!) Boardwalk also has bookable views, which is important to me because I like AM coffee and PM wine on the balcony. The point chart for a 1BR Boardwalk view is similar to Beach Club's 1BR, but if you go standard view 1BR at Boardwalk you could save a ton of points and likely end up with the same kind of view you would have had at Beach Club. A 1BR standard view at Boardwalk is less than 170 points for a week in November assuming it's not Thanksgiving week, but even that is only 176 points. Standard 1 Bedrooms are pretty easy to grab at 11 months at BWV because a lot of people go for the super low point studios and the Boardwalk rooms are all lock offs.

 

[Nursemanit]

Ahh... But that ignores the fact that you had to commit $45k up front as opposed to over time. Paying $2,500 per year isn't the same as paying $45,000 up front.
In fact, if you simply put that $45,000 in a safe investment with a 3% return, and then withdrew $2,500 per year: Then after 18 years, you would STILL have $18,000 in the bank. Now, since renting points may cost a bit more, you may have to withdraw more than $2500 per month. More below:

So the cost of buying: $45,000 + $36,000 in maintenance fees = $81,000
Cost of renting 250 points, every year for 18 years, at $21 per point, with simply saving that initial $45,000 -- So -- We withdraw $3250 per year, then pay another $2,000 per year, for $5250 in rental costs. (As opposed to simply paying $2,000 in MF per year) --- Total cost -- $44,500 (you would still have $500 left, after 18 years of withdrawals. If you invested more aggressively for a 5% return, you would have $17,000 left after 18 years). So total cost at 3% return rate, by renting: $80,500 (slightly cheaper than buying).
Total cost at 5$ return rate: $64,000 ($17,000 cheaper than buying!)

Now, that assumes you go EVERY Year, using ALL 250 points every year. But say you skip a couple of the years.... Then renting becomes even cheaper.

So basically, best case scenario of buying -- It's about the same cost as renting.
Worst case of buying -- Renting points is MASSIVELY cheaper.

45k invested at 3% - withdrawing $5250 each year for the 1 br rental has you broke in 10 years

edit - yeah adding in the maintenance will put you $590 or so ahead renting. Plus the additional flexibility So that would win.

 

[havoc315]

45k invested at 3% - withdrawing $5250 each year for the 1 br rental has you broke in 10 years

You don't withdraw $5250 per year. You make it equal to if you owned DVC. If you owned DVC, you would be paying $2,000 per year out of your annual income not out of investment.

In other words-
If you own DVC, you put down $45,000, and then "come up" with an additional $2,000 per year out of your annual income
Renting points -- You invest that initial $45,000, and then also "come up" with an additional $2,000 per year out of your annual income.

That makes it an equal comparison. If you calculate it as withdrawing $5250 per year, then you are ignoring the fact that you are paying $2000 in MFs as an owner.

 

[Nursemanit]

You don't withdraw $5250 per year. You make it equal to if you owned DVC. If you owned DVC, you would be paying $2,000 per year out of your annual income not out of investment.

In other words-
If you own DVC, you put down $45,000, and then "come up" with an additional $2,000 per year out of your annual income
Renting points -- You invest that initial $45,000, and then also "come up" with an additional $2,000 per year out of your annual income.

That makes it an equal comparison. If you calculate it as withdrawing $5250 per year, then you are ignoring the fact that you are paying $2000 in MFs as an owner.

Yup Hit me after I posted-

 

[havoc315]

Yup Hit me after I posted-

Yup.... it's why the pricing at the 2042 is starting to enter the economically irrational zone. If you put a significant premium on owning your points versus renting them, sure it could be worth buying. But we are starting to enter the phase of how much is that premium worth. We are getting to the point where renting points is slightly cheaper than buying them. Either re-sale prices will start dropping soon, or people will be paying significantly more for the "pride of ownership" versus just renting.

 

[Nursemanit]

Yup.... it's why the pricing at the 2042 is starting to enter the economically irrational zone. If you put a significant premium on owning your points versus renting them, sure it could be worth buying. But we are starting to enter the phase of how much is that premium worth. We are getting to the point where renting points is slightly cheaper than buying them. Either re-sale prices will start dropping soon, or people will be paying significantly more for the "pride of ownership" versus just renting.

I have a contract in ROFR now for BW at 140 for 100 - but that was after not being able to rent my week ( again)

Of course on average Swolfin is cheaper but the non disney bus plus resort fees taxes and parking make it annoying.

 

[havoc315]

I have a contract in ROFR now for BW at 140 for 100 - but that was after not being able to rent my week ( again)

Of course on average Swolfin is cheaper but the non disney bus plus resort fees taxes and parking make it annoying.

$140 isn't a bad price. It's BC contracts still getting $160-$170+ that are insane.

At $140, you're saving a little bit versus renting, and you have the piece of mind of control over your own points, which should make it easier to get your week.

And, Swolfin might be cheaper. And AOA or off-site would be even cheaper than that. But none of those are the Boardwalk.

 

[pianomanzano]

Ahh... But that ignores the fact that you had to commit $45k up front as opposed to over time. Paying $2,500 per year isn't the same as paying $45,000 up front.
In fact, if you simply put that $45,000 in a safe investment with a 3% return, and then withdrew $2,500 per year: Then after 18 years, you would STILL have $18,000 in the bank. Now, since renting points may cost a bit more, you may have to withdraw more than $2500 per month. More below:

So the cost of buying: $45,000 + $36,000 in maintenance fees = $81,000
Cost of renting 250 points, every year for 18 years, at $21 per point, with simply saving that initial $45,000 -- So -- We withdraw $3250 per year, then pay another $2,000 per year, for $5250 in rental costs. (As opposed to simply paying $2,000 in MF per year) --- Total cost -- $44,500 (you would still have $500 left, after 18 years of withdrawals. If you invested more aggressively for a 5% return, you would have $17,000 left after 18 years). So total cost at 3% return rate, by renting: $80,500 (slightly cheaper than buying).
Total cost at 5$ return rate: $64,000 ($17,000 cheaper than buying!)

Now, that assumes you go EVERY Year, using ALL 250 points every year. But say you skip a couple of the years.... Then renting becomes even cheaper.

So basically, best case scenario of buying -- It's about the same cost as renting.
Worst case of buying -- Renting points is MASSIVELY cheaper.

On paper the math mostly checks out and renting seems like the way to go. However, some of the private rentals for BCV are already up to $23-25/point (and brokers charge even higher). And then there's the issue of having available points up for rental. Brokers continually put prospective BCV renters on waitlists because of the high demand and not enough points available to rent.

 

[Nursemanit]

On paper the math mostly checks out and renting seems like the way to go. However, some of the private rentals for BCV are already up to $23-25/point (and brokers charge even higher). And then there's the issue of having available points up for rental. Brokers continually put prospective BCV renters on waitlists because of the high demand and not enough points available to rent.

I have even hit that with BWV if you want F&W

 

[havoc315]

On paper the math mostly checks out and renting seems like the way to go. However, some of the private rentals for BCV are already up to $23-25/point (and brokers charge even higher). And then there's the issue of having available points up for rental. Brokers continually put prospective BCV renters on waitlists because of the high demand and not enough points available to rent.

All true. The question is, how much of a premium is that ownership worth to you. Willing to pay a little more to guarantee you will get that exact week you want. Or willing to be a little flexible, maybe shift your dates, or switch to a regular cash room. Or accept that maybe one year you might have to just shrug and rent Swolphin instead.

Typically, we talk about "buying DVC in order to save versus cash rooms, and we are willing to live with things like having to pre-plan long in advance to save"
With 2042 contracts, the conversation switches to, "is it worth spending MORE on DVC, in order to get the certainty and avoid the uncertainty of point rentals"

 

[pianomanzano]

All true. The question is, how much of a premium is that ownership worth to you. Willing to pay a little more to guarantee you will get that exact week you want. Or willing to be a little flexible, maybe shift your dates, or switch to a regular cash room. Or accept that maybe one year you might have to just shrug and rent Swolphin instead.

Typically, we talk about "buying DVC in order to save versus cash rooms, and we are willing to live with things like having to pre-plan long in advance to save"
With 2042 contracts, the conversation switches to, "is it worth spending MORE on DVC, in order to get the certainty and avoid the uncertainty of point rentals"

Agreed, all good considerations. Just pointing these out for OP as they're considering a potential BCV purchase/rental strategy for the future. Luckily BCV is low on my priority unless, that is until the little ones are old enough to enjoy Stormalong Bay!