The perfect scenario for number 2 would be.
Apply for no fee card
After one year upgrade offer to the $95 Ascend pops up
Apply for Ascend
After approval, take upgrade offer from no fee card to a second Ascend.
One year later upgrade offer pops up on one of the Ascend cards for the Aspire.
Apply for the Aspire.
After approval, take upgrade offer from Ascend card to the Aspire.
Cancel the other Ascend card.
After one year cancel or downgrade your second Aspire.
Unless you are me. In that case, keep both Aspire cards.

Seriously though, there are a number of travel hackers with 2 Aspire cards or trying to upgrade their way to two like I am.