Future resale value on restricted resorts?

[DVChris]

Theoretically, but actually has never happened. Will depend on if Disney lets the contracts expire. In fact, DVCs have historically appreciated as they age.

No contract has yet ended which is why it has never happened. I don’t disagree about price appreciation thus far but we are starting to see declines for most of the 2042 resorts.

 

[Cubbiefan1734]

I have both direct and resale points at multiple resorts. I'm pretty confident I would have bought RIV direct by now if it weren't for the restrictions. I would also add that I don't view DVC as an investment and I don't have any plans to sell my contracts in the future. That being said, I still won't buy RIV or any other restricted resort.

I've always been very skeptical of timeshares due to the fact so many people get "stuck" and couldn't get out of them. For me, buying in to DVC was different because of the resale market...there would always be an out just in case something unpredictable happens. If restrictions cause the resale market to eventually tank, there will no longer be that safety net of "you can always just sell your contract".

 

[DVCanadian]

It’s an investment whether you want it to be or not. I may want to die in my house, but that doesn’t mean I’m ok with it losing all of its value.

It’s an “investment” the same way buying a car is an “investment”.
Long term it is a depreciating asset headed to zero.
Use it before you lose it!

 

[Jlo85]

It’s an “investment” the same way buying a car is an “investment”.
Long term it is a depreciating asset headed to zero.
Use it before you lose it!

Agree - though some resorts appreciate more akin to classic cars (BWV, BCV) some are more of a Camry (OKW, SSR). What RIV will be is a little bit of guessing game.

 

[long_n_wrong]

Recently purchased a resale OKW 2057 extended contract and accepted being locked out of RIV. But this thread has me thinking about what 2042 to 2057 will look like after the the 2042 resorts cease to exist.
The EPCOT resorts will be unavailable (BWV, RIV, BCV) along with BRV, HH, Vero and anything DVC brings to the market in the next 20 years.
No buyer’s remorse, but sad to see the old DVC program dismantled.

 

[havoc315]

Important to note that ALL resorts are restricted resale, not just Riviera.
If you buy SSR resale -- It's also restricted. Under its restrictions, you can't stay at Riviera.

For right now, the restrictions on non-RIV resale can be perceived as "minor" while the restrictions on Riv may be perceived as "major" but that will likely change significantly over the next several years.

Imagine it's 2027.. just 5 years from now... Your SSR re-sale points can't be used at RIV, POLY Tower, or at the new Disneyland Villas. That's a pretty right restriction on those SSR re-sale points -- they can't be used at the 3 newest resorts.
Then, move forward to 2042...
At that point, those SSR points are only value at 8 out of 15-20 DVC resorts. They aren't valid at any Epcot area resorts. They aren't valid at any of the newer resorts. Only valid at about 30-50% of DVCs.

And that's why I'm not super concerned about the re-sale value at Riviera. EVERY resort is restricted in the long term. And I'd even say that I'm optimistic about the medium-term re-sale value of Riviera for a simple reason: In 2032, 10 years from now.... RIV may be the ONLY realistic option for people who want to buy long term re-sale in the Epcot area. BWV and BCV will have a mere 9 years left. So while RIV re-sale may be only valid at Riviera.... If you want that skyliner to Epcot for festivals, etc.... Riviera may be the best and only long term choice on the market.

 

[havoc315]

An important question also -- If we assume the restrictions do hurt re-sale value, HOW much will it impact re-sale value.

DVC should not be considered an investment.

Most recent resale prices -- AKL was $133 per point, RIV was $144 per point.
Let's assume that re-sale restrictions do hurt the re-sale value of RIV...

So over the next 5 years, the "less restricted AKL points" appreciate by 10%... but those RIV points are weighed down and only appreciate by 5%..
So in 5 years.. AKL is $146 per point and RIV is $151 per point.

So you purchased 100 points of AKL for $13,300 and you resold them for $14,400..
Or, you purchased 100 RIV points for $14,400 and then resold it for $15,100...

Is that enough to really drive a purchase decision? If you prefer RIV over AKL, should you pick AKL because it will do a few hundred dollars better on the resale market?

There is no evidence that the re-sale restrictions will decimate the value of RIV re-sale compared to other resorts. So ok, maybe the points appreciate a tiny bit worse than the other resorts.... That's not really going to make a big $$$$ difference. Not big enough to override "buy where you want to stay."

 

[Ruttangel]

Important to note that ALL resorts are restricted resale, not just Riviera.

I get what you are saying but on the flip side you used to be hard pushed to book anything at VGF but with 200 new studios it is now fairly open at 7 months.

 

[Sandisw]

I get what you are saying but on the flip side you used to be hard pushed to book anything at VGF but with 200 new studios it is now fairly open at 7 months.

That is true but it will still get to the point where resale points will slowly lose choices..

So, the big unknown becomes how that change to the program impacts what happens with resale value over time for the product.

So, while DVC has enjoyed healthy resale market, all these changes could change things

And, let’s not forget that DVD could always abandon the whole restrictions piece..not that I think they will..and all of a sudden RIV resale is the same as all the other resorts.

 

[Jlo85]

So, the big unknown becomes how that change to the program impacts what happens with resale value over time for the product.

We still have 20 years of the old DVC model for the legacy resorts. I don't think it's fair to fear monger like there is some looming change that's going to impact that.

 

[hglenn]

We still have 20 years of the old DVC model for the legacy resorts. I don't think it's fair to fear monger like there is some looming change that's going to impact that.

That's not fear mongering... that's reality. And that's exactly why some folks on here are very much against the resale restrictions. The resale restrictions changes the product today... not in 20 years. By simply having resale restrictions on one resort in the DVC program is a big change and is altering the way buyers look at buying points there both direct and resale. As has been said many times, how DVD decides to sell Poly2 and DLT (or whatever it's called) will likely be an indicator if these resale restrictions are going to stick - which will further change the original program.

 

[Jlo85]

That's not fear mongering... that's reality. And that's exactly why some folks on here are very much against the resale restrictions. The resale restrictions changes the product today... not in 20 years. By simply having resale restrictions on one resort in the DVC program is a big change and is altering the way buyers look at buying points there both direct and resale. As has been said many times, how DVD decides to sell Poly2 and DLT (or whatever it's called) will likely be an indicator if these resale restrictions are going to stick - which will further change the original program.

I don't like the restrictions either. But if we're talking about resale value, these program changes don't impact that. I think people in this thread assume they know more than today's resale buyers. And that there is some bogeyman that will diminish the value of their contracts. And that's not fair at all. in my mind.

You may feel that Riviera is underpriced and the legacy resorts are overpriced. That's fair of you to feel. But it doesn't change the fact that I can sell VGF on the market for $174/point and RIV for only $144.

 

[havoc315]

I don't like the restrictions either. But if we're talking about resale value, these program changes don't impact that. I think people in this thread assume they know more than today's resale buyers. And that there is some bogeyman that will diminish the value of their contracts. And that's not fair at all. in my mind.

You may feel that Riviera is underpriced and the legacy resorts are overpriced. That's fair of you to feel. But it doesn't change the fact that I can sell VGF on the market for $174/point and RIV for only $144.

Doesn't change the fact that RIV direct is also about $20 cheaper than GFV direct.
So both resorts are behaving similarly. GFV holding value slightly better than RIV, while RIV holding value better than most other resorts.
GFV is a bit unique.... it's the only resort to go from being sold-out to re-opening significant sales.

 

[havoc315]

We still have 20 years of the old DVC model for the legacy resorts. I don't think it's fair to fear monger like there is some looming change that's going to impact that.

I didn't see any fear mongering. Just an honest assessment about the unknowns of the future.

Here is fear mongering (but honest fear mongering):
Re-sale value of ALL DVC will plummet in the next 20 years, as global warming makes central Florida totally unlivable for 3 months of the year. Disney parks possibly even having to close over the summer.

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/new...0220815-ygdjwdwvczhezotgdoux3xy4yi-story.html

Now that's fear mongering.

 

[Ruttangel]

I didn't see any fear mongering. Just an honest assessment about the unknowns of the future.

political decisions about Disney have already resulted in Reedy Creek being dissolved next year, what will be the impact on dues? Who’s to say that’s the end of politicians interfering with Disney plans in the future

 

[Stargazer65]

I predict that Riviera will become worthless to current owners trying to sell by 2070.

 

[Jlo85]

RIV holding value better than most other resorts.

I mean, Copper Creek was reselling at $151 two years after its opening. So, not sure I agree.

Now that's fear mongering.

I do agree with you that climate change is more a real risk than any DVD rule changes impacting the value of resale contract. Actually maybe an argument for a shorter-term contract.

 

[havoc315]

I mean, Copper Creek was reselling at $151 two years after its opening. So, not sure I agree.

August 2022:
Copper Creek direct: $240. Copper Creek resale -- $166. Re-sale results in 31% loss of value
Riviera direct: About $190 per point with incentives. Resale: $144. Loss of 24% of value.

So yeah... Riviera is currently holding its resale value better than Copper Creek. Can't predict the future, but as of now, Riviera holds its value better than most resorts.

 

[havoc315]

political decisions about Disney have already resulted in Reedy Creek being dissolved next year, what will be the impact on dues?

If it actually does get dissolved (doubt it will actually happen), then dues will come actually come down a bit. (Disney's services will have to get subsidized by the county and state, as opposed to paying for everything themselves).

Who’s to say that’s the end of politicians interfering with Disney plans in the future

 

[Jlo85]

August 2022:
Copper Creek direct: $240. Copper Creek resale -- $166. Re-sale results in 31% loss of value
Riviera direct: About $190 per point with incentives. Resale: $144. Loss of 24% of value.

So yeah... Riviera is currently holding its resale value better than Copper Creek. Can't predict the future, but as of now, Riviera holds its value better than most resorts.

Copper Creek was selling for $176/point direct originally.