Cruise and Theme Park Operational Updates due to Coronavirus

[mshanson3121]

IMHO they will also find out that large gatherings, concerts, sports, parks are not as much of a super spreader contagious concern as they are being made out to be. Most cases will come from close and sustained exposure to the infected person, own household, caregivers etc. Otherwise we would see reports of large #'s of cases traced from the parks and sports events and we have not seen anything of the sort.

The case and sadly death of the man that was in Disney World while highly contagious, going by some of the guidelines, should have infected tens if not hundreds of people in Disney and there is no evidence to say that happened.

Yes, you can still get infected from brief exposure but those will be the outliers and rarer.

This will also allow the parks to open sooner.

This is just wishful thinking, since it just isn't how this virus works at all. It spreads incredibly easily. Most transmission cases are community transmission, which means from being in public. Running errands here and there. Not prolonged contact with someone contagious. Factor in that most contagious people don't know they're contagious.

As far as not hearing reports traced back to Disney, that's just common sense. This virus is very easily transmitted in public and has been spreading rapidly. Except for rare cases (such as the sick doctor who knowingly went to a party) there is absolutely no way to trace back community acquired cases to the source with any amount of certainty.

The reason we have these social distancing in the first place is because of how easily this is picked up out in the public, and how dangerous they know large gatherings are.

 

[xuxa777]

Yes as I said IMHO, but not wishful thinking, just looking at the latest data trends. First there is no proof that it is spread mostly by community transmission, everyone is still trying to figure it out. Tracing can absolutely be traced back to to Disney, plenty of proof of that happening with this and other viral outbreaks in the past.

The reason we have social distancing is as the CDC says is an overabundance of caution. That overabundance of caution was based on very icoorect data models.

I am only sharing that opinion as it pertains to Disney opening sooner than later. No need to debate it any more as it will go off topic, and you might be right , as no one knows for sure either way currently.

 

[Redhead5]

Frankly, my husband and I are waiting for the antibody test. We were at Disney Feb 10 - Feb 15. When we got back there was something strange that tried to get us but went away after 3 or 4 days. I remember our meal at Liberty Tavern and the family seated behind us coughing most of the time. It wasn't like a cold and we wonder if it was covid-19. If we knew we'd had it we'd be more likely to go to Disney earlier rather than later when it reopens. I believe Disney won't be opening anytime soon but I enjoy reading everyone's opinion.

 

[KBoopaloo]

IMHO they will also find out that large gatherings, concerts, sports, parks are not as much of a super spreader contagious concern as they are being made out to be. Most cases will come from close and sustained exposure to the infected person, own household, caregivers etc. Otherwise we would see reports of large #'s of cases traced from the parks and sports events and we have not seen anything of the sort.

The case and sadly death of the man that was in Disney World while highly contagious, going by some of the guidelines, should have infected tens if not hundreds of people in Disney and there is no evidence to say that happened.

Yes, you can still get infected from brief exposure but those will be the outliers and rarer. Which mean people at high risk should be careful until vaccine.

This will also allow the parks to open sooner.

The CDC is only now coming out with various reports about superspread incidents. The common denominator in more than a few of them is sharing communal food at a party which will certainly have some implications for buffets especially at the parks and resorts. But even beyond the types of events where people had closer physical contact than one would normally have with strangers at the parks (funerals have been an issue where people hug), there are other cases like the church choir in Washington state where the people attending said they used hand sanitizer, avoided handshakes and hugs and didn't touch each other's music and 45 of them still came down with the virus and two died. I also personally know of someone who caught the virus after attending a funeral where at least 5 others became ill (one died). I wont't get into detail but my own personal experience with the tracing that you would expect to be happening to find the origin of cases is that it is often not happening at all so it would not surprise me if there are other clusters of infection that originated at sporting events or theme parks and we just don't know about them because no one is really doing the tracing work.

I think the issue is that we still don't know enough about this virus to truly understand how it spreads and why some people seem to be superspreaders and others do not and why some people seem to be more susceptible than others and this will be the main issue for places like sporting arenas, movie theaters and theme parks in deciding their path forward. I would love to think that we'll be back to some semblance of regular life by summer but every time I picture the way people move through Disney World - the turnstiles, the transportation, the queues, I can't imagine a scenario that would make it safe anytime very soon.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/us/coronavirus-westport-connecticut-party-zero.html
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/loc...rty-super-spread-covid-19-in-chicago/2253006/
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-funeral-albany-georgia.html
https://www.kut.org/post/44-70-aust...pring-break-have-now-tested-positive-covid-19

 

[mshanson3121]

Tracing can absolutely be traced back to to Disney, plenty of proof of that happening with this and other viral outbreaks in the past.

Outside of early on, with international travel (ex. cases coming from China, Italy etc...) confirmed community tracing has only happened in very few instances with Covid. The incubation period for this virus is 1-14 days, which makes it incredibly difficult to narrow down. And since it does spread so easily, almost impossible to prove it was caught at Disney versus the airplane, the gas station, the grocery store etc...

 

[mshanson3121]

Frankly, my husband and I are waiting for the antibody test. We were at Disney Feb 10 - Feb 15. When we got back there was something strange that tried to get us but went away after 3 or 4 days. I remember our meal at Liberty Tavern and the family seated behind us coughing most of the time. It wasn't like a cold and we wonder if it was covid-19. If we knew we'd had it we'd be more likely to go to Disney earlier rather than later when it reopens. I believe Disney won't be opening anytime soon but I enjoy reading everyone's opinion.

Same. DD and I were VERY sick in late Feb/early March. I was the first to get it and DH took me to ER about 4 days in. The doctor asked if I had traveled, but I hadn't, so I wasn't tested. Ultimately they diagnosed me with a sinus infection - but I have to tell you, I get sinus infections every year, bad ones, and I have NEVER been as sick with them, as I was with this one. Even the doctor said I seemed to be far sicker than is normal for a sinus infection. DD picked it up about a week after me, and while not as sick as me, it definitely was hard on her. It took both of us almost 3 weeks to be back to normal.

 

[Spridell]

IMHO they will also find out that large gatherings, concerts, sports, parks are not as much of a super spreader contagious concern as they are being made out to be. Most cases will come from close and sustained exposure to the infected person, own household, caregivers etc. Otherwise we would see reports of large #'s of cases traced from the parks and sports events and we have not seen anything of the sort.

The case and sadly death of the man that was in Disney World while highly contagious, going by some of the guidelines, should have infected tens if not hundreds of people in Disney and there is no evidence to say that happened.

Yes, you can still get infected from brief exposure but those will be the outliers and rarer. Which mean people at high risk should be careful until vaccine.

This will also allow the parks to open sooner.

This has me thinking too. Here in Florida we had hundreds of Spring Training Games in Feb and beginning of March with NO mass outbreaks. Here in Palm Beach we had a major Golf Tournament first week of March with 200,000 people attending with NO mass outbreaks. Daytona 500 NO mass outbreaks.

All outdoor events.

 

[mi*vida*loca]

Same. DD and I were VERY sick in late Feb/early March. I was the first to get it and DH took me to ER about 4 days in. The doctor asked if I had traveled, but I hadn't, so I wasn't tested. Ultimately they diagnosed me with a sinus infection - but I have to tell you, I get sinus infections every year, bad ones, and I have NEVER been as sick with them, as I was with this one. Even the doctor said I seemed to be far sicker than is normal for a sinus infection. DD picked it up about a week after me, and while not as sick as me, it definitely was hard on her. It took both of us almost 3 weeks to be back to normal.

Same thing happened to me in early March. They also told me I had a cold and sinus infection. I also had a horrible dry cough which exhausted me and one night I woke up completely soaked in sweat so I know I had to have had a fever during the night. It wasn't until a week or two later that I found out a dry cough is a big symptom of Covid. It took me about 3 weeks to feel normal again. No one else in my family caught it but some of my coworkers had a weird cough but none of us were tested because it was "just a cold."

 

[osufeth24]

I will say it does surprise me Florida hasn't become the hot bed of mass outbreak that everyone was predicting 2 to 3 weeks ago.

 

[Jrb1979]

I will say it does surprise me Florida hasn't become the hot bed of mass outbreak that everyone was predicting 2 to 3 weeks ago.

Its in other places instead cause of all the spring breakers took it with them. There is probably a lot of people that have this that don't know it so it keeps numbers artificially lower. I just don't see how they can open up everything back to normal so quickly. IMO its a big mistake opening Disney and other parks already. I'm afraid of the amount of cases that will come from this.

What they should be doing is opening up things slowly. Start with bars, restaurants and regular stores first with limited capacity. If cases stay low after a few weeks then open up places that involve mass gatherings. That is the plan here in Canada. Our Prime Minister has come out the last few days saying this is going to last til there is a vaccine.

 

[wdw_dine_junkie]

I'd be perfectly happy to camp at Fort Wilderness and social distance if they would let me. Just came home with a new travel trailer ordered before this mess and nowhere to take it. I'll be making Mickey waffles in the driveway soon.

 

[Spridell]

Seeing everything continue to decline, even in the hardest hit state of NY, summer is looking good still for Disney. You will see some extensions and stricter lockdowns rules in the next few days but they will be outliers and just lagging from last week from the sheer momentum of the government.

Already some state leaders are calling for the lifting of stay at home orders and that will only increase next week. Florida will be one of the first to start to open. It looks like Florida peaked 4/3 in new cases and possibly earlier with the lag of test results taking 5-7 days. May 1st might be the easiest to lift stay at home but it might be a week sooner. South Florida might be a bit longer because that is where the majority of cases are. Also the a studies going on in California theorizing that we are in the second wave already, first wave was back in November 19 and German studies are saying Europe might be closer to herd immunity than previously thought. Typically 2500-2800 people in Florida die annual of the flu. Current "models" say it will be 4300 due to covid, but that will be lowered this week, I imagine to about 2500-3000. The real amount after all said and done will be less than that.

All that said, once the data trends get even clearer next week you will see Disney start making more moves around 4/15, maybe not public but insde announcements and rumors, dates, when they will begin to unfurlough CM's (most likely in early May). Honestly there is no reason not to start bringing them back , especially non high risk people at this point. They can't and won't at this time but it will be sooner than later.

At the earliest you will see Disney Springs open mid May (maybe may 1st but that is an outside shot), if that happens July 1st open at latest for the parks. There will be some social distancing elements in place but they will be open.

FWIW Florida's new numbers just came out.

Peak pushed back a little until 26th BUT.... Hospital beds, ICU Beds, and Deaths all DROPPED also.

 

[xuxa777]

FWIW Florida's new numbers just came out.

Peak pushed back a little until 26th BUT.... Hospital beds, ICU Beds, and Deaths all DROPPED also.

And it will continue to fall as real data comes in, as it appears the new cases in Florida have already peaked back on 4/3. Good news all around for Disney opening sooner.

 

[Sarah_Rose]

I'd be perfectly happy to camp at Fort Wilderness and social distance if they would let me. Just came home with a new travel trailer ordered before this mess and nowhere to take it. I'll be making Mickey waffles in the driveway soon.

I'm right here, as well. We bought our trailer in October and have only taken it for one night to try it out before the season ended here. We were supposed to camp at Fort Wilderness in mid-March and debated hard whether we should go just to camp even after the parks were announced closed. In the end, I'm glad we didn't because it would have been too nerve-wracking, but we considered it for a few hours... Right now we're booked for the end of August/early September and I said I'd never do Disney or FW in the summer (especially peak hurricane season) but I have the bug so badly.... We'll see.

 

[yankeesfan123]

This has me thinking too. Here in Florida we had hundreds of Spring Training Games in Feb and beginning of March with NO mass outbreaks. Here in Palm Beach we had a major Golf Tournament first week of March with 200,000 people attending with NO mass outbreaks. Daytona 500 NO mass outbreaks.

All outdoor events.

Right. Same with Mardis Gras.

 

[Spridell]

Right. Same with Mardis Gras.

Inside bars and nightclubs. Much different

 

[Runnsally]

IMHO they will also find out that large gatherings, concerts, sports, parks are not as much of a super spreader contagious concern as they are being made out to be. Most cases will come from close and sustained exposure to the infected person, own household, caregivers etc. Otherwise we would see reports of large #'s of cases traced from the parks and sports events and we have not seen anything of the sort.

The case and sadly death of the man that was in Disney World while highly contagious, going by some of the guidelines, should have infected tens if not hundreds of people in Disney and there is no evidence to say that happened.

Yes, you can still get infected from brief exposure but those will be the outliers and rarer. Which mean people at high risk should be careful until vaccine.

This will also allow the parks to open sooner.

IMHO’s should be reserved for thoughts on the best ride at Disney, not a once-a-century pandemic

Let’s defer to the experts...

 

[yankeesfan123]

FWIW Florida's new numbers just came out.

Peak pushed back a little until 26th BUT.... Hospital beds, ICU Beds, and Deaths all DROPPED also.

There is literally nothing stopping this immediately growing if we get lax on the restrictions. This is only working because of the stay at home orders and social distancing.

Until there’s widespread antibody testing, a real treatment, and/or a vaccine, Disney will remain closed.

And just imagine how widespread the testing is going to be. You’re talking hundreds of millions of tests.

 

[mshanson3121]

This has me thinking too. Here in Florida we had hundreds of Spring Training Games in Feb and beginning of March with NO mass outbreaks. Here in Palm Beach we had a major Golf Tournament first week of March with 200,000 people attending with NO mass outbreaks. Daytona 500 NO mass outbreaks.

All outdoor events.

So many factors here:

1. The US was still fairly early on at that time, so, there wasn't nearly as much community transmission happening in general.

2. However, considering how many people catch Covid but remain asymptomatic, or have very mild, typical cold symptoms, you have absolutely no way of saying how many did/didn't catch Covid at those events. Thousands could have, but we have no way of knowing. I mean, let's call a spade a spade, back then, certain people and media were still dismissing Covid as a media ploy. Americans as a whole were very slow to realize the seriousness of Covid and to start taking action. I'm sure that many a mild "cold" was brushed off as just that - a cold.

3. And of course, you have to remember that symptoms can take two weeks to develop... March 1st there were 75 confirmed cases. Just two weeks later there were 3600. That's a 4700% increase. It stands to reason that it's possible some of those were caught at those events.

 

[yankeesfan123]

Inside bars and nightclubs. Much different

No. It’s not. Disney also has indoor environments. So do sporting venues.

Also, the events you listed were all in February and early March. Why would there have been a mass outbreak if there were only a handful of cases in the entire state of Florida? Only 1 case in all of Florida as of 3/1. Of course there wasn’t any mass outbreak.