(When) will DVC go “negative”?

[Cfabar1]

Disney is not a luxury hotelier... That's why they offloaded that type of business to the Four Seasons...

The Grand Floridian is themed as a luxury hotel. It is kind of funny if you think about it objectively. That said, the amenities available at the Grand Floridian are quite robust including the quick service options and many restaurants and bars.

When I go on vacation, I am looking for amenities. Dining, Pools, Hot Tubs, etc. DVC does pretty well on that front for a timeshare actually, but it isn't the same as staying at a true "resort property" somewhere else, and you are definitely paying for the location nd Disney legacy.

For a while, Disney's competitors were the Orlando World Center Marriott and the Hyatt Regency Grand Cypress. Now with Bonnett Creek for example having the JW Marriott, Waldorf Astoria, and also with 4 seasons being just down the road, the luxury traveler is likely not staying on property. Then there's also the new Evermore resort as well...

I'm a little surprised they didn't try to market LSL in that direction... It tells me Disney knows their strengths....

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I have a theory on this.

Back in the days of Pool Hopping, Stormalong Bay was the OG "you cannot hop there" pool. It was also the first (and for quite a while the only) pool that checked room keys and issued wristbands, and they did it every single day. As a result, SB had an air of exclusivity. The only way to set foot within the Friendly Confines was to stay at BC, YC, or BCV, and the privileged few would never have to rub shoulders with the hoi polloi from those other, lesser resorts.

DVC's langauge of Membership already feeds into the "I'm better than those people" vibe that can sometimes take hold with folks, and BCV ups the ante.

What's amusing about all of this is that---in the context of some of the other high-end resorts in Orlando---SB is good-but-not-great. I mean the "lazy river" is more or less a lazy donut. There is sand. The slide is a tallish mostly straight shot. It was fine, but I found it anticipointing when I finally stayed there. I'm also a bit of a contrarian, so YMMV.

While the pool IS a major selling point for the resort, you're obviously not wrong, you have overlooked probably the one thing that makes this resort, especially the DVC side of it, so appealing...

I roll out of bed and I land in World Showcase. Or vice versa...I watch say the 4th of July show and roll right into my room as the line for the skyliner literally stretches PAST said room. No other resort gives that kind of proximity save maybe BLT and let's be real when comparing the two resorts now we can bring the pools into play and I'll take that lazy donut over a "cement pond" any day.

But to be fair as much I am a fan of my home resort I can also agree the rooms and resort don't do as much for me as say the Poly, CCV/BRV, or even an AKV in terms of theming and ambience.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Members aren't trying to get the most cash value for their points.

I am! lol

I think I'm reading your post correctly you're talking about bang for your buck for points? If so then I for sure look to maximize whenever I can. Especially to make sense of the dues I'm paying on my OKW contract and to a lesser extent the AKV contract too. I often trade at 7 months to best available and that best available is usually in line with the higher end of cash rates. We also stay in studios to maximize point value (and to stay more often). I have to obviously like the resort as well but I use my three contracts in very specific ways:

BCV - Will almost always be used at BC...random exceptions.
AKV - 50% of time I'm trading out to a Poly or VGF or CCV/BR depending on season and 50% of the time trying for Value and Club Level stays
OKW - 100% trade at 7 months...again usually to one of the higher rack rate resorts while trying to stay in standard studios. This really is the only way I could justify having the OKW with the dues...knowing the points are used for maximum value when compared to cash. Also a reason I went with a 2042 non extended...I want it to finish before things really get out of hand between the years 2043 and 2057.

 

[maui22]

I miss being able to order room service at PVB. When staying LV in the longhouse, we ordered the Ohana Feast for one but plates for two. We timed it perfectly. Everything arrived a couple minutes before the fireworks.

Sitting on our private balcony watching fireworks eating the Ohana noodles, wings, and more. It still rates as the best meal/experience we have had at WDW/DL/Aulani/VB. It was MNSSHP fireworks when they launched them from all around MK to make it even better.

One of those Covid casualties that has never returned.

 

[Chili327]

I'm sorry but most of this is just nostalgia-fueled nonsense.

The stretch from Tangled, Wreck-It Ralph, Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia, and Moana was every bit as good creatively and commercially as Lion King, Aladdin, Mermaid, and Beauty and the Beast. Then COVID hit and everything went to hell.

Pandora and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge are better themed than every single inch of Walt's original Disneyland, by miles and miles, you just don't like the IP. And that's fine, you don't have to like the IP. But they're deeply immersive and every bit as good as Harry Potter. Then COVID hit and again, everything went to hell.

And oh by the way, the business which has had the least corner-cutting has been Cruise Line, and Disney's CFO is in love with the cruise business and wants Disney to keep pouring money into fleet expansion. They're investing like crazy in their most outstanding product.

IMO, Cars Land at Disneyland ushered in this age of New Imagineering. That place is amazing. I also think New Fantasyland deserves more credit than it gets.

I’m glad someone said it. lol

I roll out of bed and I land in World Showcase. Or vice versa...I watch say the 4th of July show and roll right into my room as the line for the skyliner literally stretches PAST said room. No other resort gives that kind of proximity save maybe BLT and let's be real when comparing the two resorts now we can bring the pools into play and I'll take that lazy donut over a "cement pond" any day.

I just wanted to say… VGC.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I just wanted to say… VGC.

Haha yes yes...guilty of being Florida centric here!

 

[eticketplease]

I just wanted to say… VGC.

I’m pretty sure it is the quickest way to get from room to park. It’s even faster if the pool is open and you cut through there to change out of your swimsuit after getting off of GRR

 

[Judique]

I can say having room service at VGC and VDH is amazing. I think the food is pretty decent too.

I can remember when we could get room service at Boardwalk Villas. There was a limited menu in the room.

 

[Judique]

I miss being able to order room service at PVB. When staying LV in the longhouse, we ordered the Ohana Feast for one but plates for two. We timed it perfectly. Everything arrived a couple minutes before the fireworks.

Sitting on our private balcony watching fireworks eating the Ohana noodles, wings, and more. It still rates as the best meal/experience we have had at WDW/DL/Aulani/VB. It was MNSSHP fireworks when they launched them from all around MK to make it even better.

One of those Covid casualties that has never returned.

I remember that also, except we ordered for two and had too much food! Still, it was somewhere around $100 but I don't remember if that included tip.

 

[WinterSolider]

I roll out of bed and I land in World Showcase. Or vice versa...I watch say the 4th of July show and roll right into my room as the line for the skyliner literally stretches PAST said room. No other resort gives that kind of proximity save maybe BLT and let's be real when comparing the two resorts now we can bring the pools into play and I'll take that lazy donut over a "cement pond" any day.

That's a big part of my original point though. You can walk right to the World Showcase. Okay? That's a huge benefit if and only if you really love the World Showcase.

Walt Disney World is huge and spread out, nothing is close to EVERYTHING. On a typical week long vacation, the average person probably spends half a day in the World Showcase. I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to pick where you're going to stay based on the half of a park you'll be in for like 10% of your vacation at best.

 

[WinterSolider]

I am! lol

I think I'm reading your post correctly you're talking about bang for your buck for points? If so then I for sure look to maximize whenever I can. Especially to make sense of the dues I'm paying on my OKW contract and to a lesser extent the AKV contract too. I often trade at 7 months to best available and that best available is usually in line with the higher end of cash rates. We also stay in studios to maximize point value (and to stay more often). I have to obviously like the resort as well but I use my three contracts in very specific ways:

BCV - Will almost always be used at BC...random exceptions.
AKV - 50% of time I'm trading out to a Poly or VGF or CCV/BR depending on season and 50% of the time trying for Value and Club Level stays
OKW - 100% trade at 7 months...again usually to one of the higher rack rate resorts while trying to stay in standard studios. This really is the only way I could justify having the OKW with the dues...knowing the points are used for maximum value when compared to cash. Also a reason I went with a 2042 non extended...I want it to finish before things really get out of hand between the years 2043 and 2057.

You're contradicting yourself in this post.

Old Key West is the best bang for your buck by a mile if you were actually trying to get the most dollars worth for each point spent. It's not even close.

I don't have the points charts in front of me, but as a rough example...

Old Key West might have a room for 10 points that would be $450 cash rate, $45 of cash value per point spent. That same night at Beach Club might be 15 points and $600 cash rate, only $40 of cash value per point spent.

Beach Club 50% more expensive in points but only 33% more expensive in cash, making it a worse redemption of points in dollars-of-rack-rate-per-point terms.

Owning a high dues resort like Old Key West to redeem them at a points-heavy resort is quite literally the worst financial way to own DVC. You would be much better off owning more points at a lower dues resort. If you were actually maximizing your points value, you would ALWAYS stay at OKW (or Boardwalk Standard View if you can get it, as it's another outlier).

 

[samsp99]

I don't think that the on-property Disney resorts will ever go negative. We're in a weird period right now, with lower demand because neither Disney World nor Disneyland has new attractions of size that will be attendance drivers for the parks. That problem "should" fix itself in two or three years. Also, if one on-property resort were to go negative I don't think it would be OWK, it'd be AKV. Cash room rates there are far lower than those at OWK and point rates are higher. But still, I feel DVC is going to be fine for the rest of my life, maybe longer.

People do come and go from the Disney sphere. Some get irritated, age out, or simply move on--and others come in and replace them. Also, there are lifers in the Disney sphere as well--probably most everyone on this board. But I've seen endless waves of "I'm quitting Disney because of X" since the 1990s, and aside from minor dips and swells in overall park attendance (dip 2008, swell 2016), nothing much really changes on that front.

Wild thought - if Disney built a second skyliner route: AKV - AK - Blizzard Beach - Coronado Springs - Speedway - Hollywood, what would that do for the economics of colorado springs and AKV?

 

[Judique]

That's a big part of my original point though. You can walk right to the World Showcase. Okay? That's a huge benefit if and only if you really love the World Showcase.

Walt Disney World is huge and spread out, nothing is close to EVERYTHING. On a typical week long vacation, the average person probably spends half a day in the World Showcase. I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to pick where you're going to stay based on the half of a park you'll be in for like 10% of your vacation at best.

That's speaking from your perspective. You can't really say typical or average unless you have the data.

I think demographics come into play here. On a 17 day trip in February of 2024, a week of which was spent on Crescent Lake, to include BCV for 2 nights, Swan - 1 or 2 nights depending on the party and BWV for 5 nights and then offsite, with one under 30, 2 in the 40ish range and 3 'up there', only the 2 in the 40plus range ventured to parks other than Epcot. We all went into Epcot for dinners as well as to other resorts and the Crescent lake area. Older set were not focused on rides. Most did some Epcot attractions. I went there a number of mornings as well as evening stroll and some meals. Younger guy preferred golfing as well as eating at some Epcot restaurants.

Annual pass here. I do mostly Epcot, half days in MK and Studios, a couple of mornings in AK. I walk from mostly BWV or BCV as I own at both and also stay at all 3 Crescent Lake Marriotts as I have points and status. I also visit 2-4 times a year.

 

[BeachClub2014]

That's a big part of my original point though. You can walk right to the World Showcase. Okay? That's a huge benefit if and only if you really love the World Showcase.

Walt Disney World is huge and spread out, nothing is close to EVERYTHING. On a typical week long vacation, the average person probably spends half a day in the World Showcase. I don't think it makes a whole lot of sense to pick where you're going to stay based on the half of a park you'll be in for like 10% of your vacation at best.

I think you may be underestimating this a bit. I can only speak for ourselves, and we are pretty average in all respects, but we go into the World Showcase every night of our vacation while staying at Beach Club. That's one of the many things that make BCV so awesome.

 

[WinterSolider]

I think you may be underestimating this a bit. I can only speak for ourselves, and we are pretty average in all respects, but we go into the World Showcase every night of our vacation while staying at Beach Club. That's one of the many things that make BCV so awesome.

That was exactly my original point, we agree.

I'm not saying Beach Club sucks for everybody. I'm saying Beach Club people are atypical in their touring patterns, making them uniquely dedicated to their home resort when compared to other owners.

Other owners are more likely to say "we have our favorites, but we also tend to try different places and enjoy the variety of resorts that DVC and WDW offer." While Beach Club owners are more likely to say "we eat in the World Showcase 9 times on a week-long trip, we plan our vacations around the Epcot festivals, and Stormalong Bay is Paradise on Earth, only Beach Club will do."

 

[Cfabar1]

You're contradicting yourself in this post.

Old Key West is the best bang for your buck by a mile if you were actually trying to get the most dollars worth for each point spent. It's not even close.

I don't have the points charts in front of me, but as a rough example...

Old Key West might have a room for 10 points that would be $450 cash rate, $45 of cash value per point spent. That same night at Beach Club might be 15 points and $600 cash rate, only $40 of cash value per point spent.

Beach Club 50% more expensive in points but only 33% more expensive in cash, making it a worse redemption of points in dollars-of-rack-rate-per-point terms.

Owning a high dues resort like Old Key West to redeem them at a points-heavy resort is quite literally the worst financial way to own DVC. You would be much better off owning more points at a lower dues resort. If you were actually maximizing your points value, you would ALWAYS stay at OKW (or Boardwalk Standard View if you can get it, as it's another outlier).

But Old Key West is more akin in amenities, distance from parks, dining options, etc. to staying off-site than it is to staying at Beach Club. You are comparing two very different products...

Some of those things make OKW even more attractive... say the larger kitchen, more square footage, etc.
Some of them make it much less attractive.... Limited dining options on property, you have to have a rental car for it to work well for you, etc.

And OKW cash rates compared to off-property villas say at World Center Marriott... Wow! It's amazing how much more expensive OKW is...

 

[Cfabar1]

That was exactly my original point, we agree.

I'm not saying Beach Club sucks for everybody. I'm saying Beach Club people are atypical in their touring patterns, making them uniquely dedicated to their home resort when compared to other owners.

Other owners are more likely to say "we have our favorites, but we also tend to try different places and enjoy the variety of resorts that DVC and WDW offer." While Beach Club owners are more likely to say "we eat in the World Showcase 9 times on a week-long trip, we plan our vacations around the Epcot festivals, and Stormalong Bay is Paradise on Earth, only Beach Club will do."

There is an innate pride that BCV owners have...

Compared to say, VGF owners who say "We Own at the Grand Floridian, now let me tell you all the downsides."

 

[WinterSolider]

But Old Key West is more akin in amenities, distance from parks, dining options, etc. to staying off-site than it is to staying at Beach Club. You are comparing two very different products...

Some of those things make OKW even more attractive... say the larger kitchen, more square footage, etc.
Some of them make it much less attractive.... Limited dining options on property, you have to have a rental car for it to work well for you, etc.

And OKW cash rates compared to off-property villas... Wow! It's amazing how much more expensive OKW is...

Cool, absolutely none of that has anything to do with what I said.

I'm not comparing the products at all.

The previous poster claimed that the were trying to get the most dollars of cash value for each of their points. They're not.

The ONLY thing we're comparing is cash prices to points prices. The list of amenities has nothing to do with it.

If you don't want to spend your points at Old Key West because you don't like Old Key West, perfect! I don't either. I use almost all of my points at Aulani so I have dog in this fight of one WDW resort versus another. But if you want to claim your strategy in redeeming points is to get the most dollars of value out of each point, you'd be staying at Old Key West every time. If you're not staying at Old Key West, that's fine too, but then you can't claim that's your strategy.

 

[BeachClub2014]

That was exactly my original point, we agree.

I'm not saying Beach Club sucks for everybody. I'm saying Beach Club people are atypical in their touring patterns, making them uniquely dedicated to their home resort when compared to other owners.

Other owners are more likely to say "we have our favorites, but we also tend to try different places and enjoy the variety of resorts that DVC and WDW offer." While Beach Club owners are more likely to say "we eat in the World Showcase 9 times on a week-long trip, we plan our vacations around the Epcot festivals, and Stormalong Bay is Paradise on Earth, only Beach Club will do."

No, we don't really agree. I disagree with your premise that the "average person" only spends a little time at World Showcase or that Beach Club people are atypical within the DVC landscape.

We are also ambivalent about Stormalong Bay and definitely don't plan our vacations around it. We love BCV for numerous reasons, but we also appreciate staying at other resorts.

 

[WinterSolider]

No, we don't really agree. I disagree with your premise that the "average person" only spends a little time at World Showcase or that Beach Club people are atypical within the DVC landscape.

We are also ambivalent about Stormalong Bay and definitely don't plan our vacations around it. We love BCV for numerous reasons, but we also appreciate staying at other resorts.

The average person only spends a little time in World Showcase. They do one single loop per trip. That's just a fact.