It'll be closer to mid October until you start to hear about deals and the beginning of November until you start to see the ads for the bigger stores.
I think this is the first year I don't care about black friday. I used to love running around bright and early getting deals but the last few years have just been blah. There are too many people and I can often get the same deal or better either before or after black friday.
Plus we're doing a smaller Christmas this year as we're moving next June, and my son is at the age where he just doesn't need/want a lot, so I think maybe that's playing into it as well.
I think it'll be the first year I just grab a few things online and don't go out at all.