2023 resale price speculation

[Bearval]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

AKV I already passing at 115 I see it closer to what it went for in 2017 in the 80s. Very few people are going to finance a timeshare in a recession.

 

[Sandisw]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

BCV and Poly 130, VGF 145

 

[heynowirv]

There are a lot of timeshares out there that you can buy for $1 on eBay. DVC wasn't like this. The product was easy to resell, it was a totally different thing. IMO, the resale restrictions are a big reversal, and they staffed up the kiosks for a reason.

The modern park experience, no FP, G+ at 7AM is completely different. The 7AM part in particular is painful for me. Heck, I'd rather do it at midnight.

Blue Card benefits have changed over time. When I bought, there was a mediocre AP discount of a few hundred bucks. These boards were full of decades of this math to justify buying direct. During Covid, there were very few Blue Card benefits. Now they have a few events, and they've added some innovative paid stuff, which I think is great. But not ticket discounts, doesn't match the current Disney price squeeze.

No APs is gamechanging IMO. Lots of sports teams sell PSLs, which are the right to buy season tickets. It's a structure that makes sense to me if they want to limit APs and sell direct DVC. But I don't see it happening, because the APs bringing a sandwich are the undesirables.

The impact of all of this will be more DVC resale on the market and lower prices, as direct continues to go up.

We paid our PSL . We bought into our resorts, that should give us the "Right" to buy AP's when they go back online.

 

[heynowirv]

This is primarily an effect of Disney's Reality Distortion Field. That part won't go away even if the resale market tanks.

For example, Marriott has more in common with DVC than with Westgate, but most DVCers will be hard pressed to believe it.

Brian,
Would you please explain the similarities?

 

[Cfabar1]

$145 for resale VGF is about what it would take for me to consider that over a direct VGF purchase. The older resorts resale is the only way that makes sense, but the newer ones, the math heavily skews in favor of direct in my opinion. More years to amortize the cost, fewer unknowns about future resort availability, and more years of member benefits.

 

[Brian Noble]

In response to @heynowirv:

It is probably fair to start with the differences between Marriott and DVC.

Marriott is a first-class hotelier. It is their primary line of business and they know what they are doing. Marriott's units are typically larger and better appointed. Marriott has many (many) more locations, domestic and international. They are somewhat late to the points game (maybe a decade or so), so the system is a little more convoluted between legacy weeks, points, etc., but they do not distinguish between retail and resale in their points system. (If you buy resale you pay an "education fee" to bring the points back into the system.) Marriott is generally less expensive to buy resale, which is good for resale buyers, but bad for developer-purchased owners. Marriott does not have the draw of privileged theme park access.

The similarities: they are both focused on customer service. They both have very low-pressure sales operations. They both have very flexible point-based systems. They are both positioned as luxury brands. They are both expensive. They both have exit paths for current owners that recovers some (but not all) of the purchase price by selling on the open market. They both have active rental markets.

Westgate, in contrast, is absolutely rapacious. They have the reputation as being the absolute worst in terms of sales pressure. They are typically worth zero dollars on the resale market, or worse. They charge owners low-four-figures to get out of their ownership--if they even give an owner that option. They sometimes do not, leaving default as the only way out. Resale owners are basically pariahs. No one is clamoring to rent Westgate timeshares. Their resorts have that gilded faux-luxury feel that is barely skin-deep. I wouldn't wish a Westgate tour (let alone ownership) on my worst enemy.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Well, it is probably fair to start with the differences between Marriott and DVC.

Marriott is a first-class hotelier. It is their primary line of business and they know what they are doing. Marriott's units are typically larger and better appointed. Marriott has many (many) more locations, domestic and international. They are somewhat late to the points game (maybe a decade or so), so the system is a little more convoluted between legacy weeks, points, etc., but they do not distinguish between retail and resale in their points system. (If you buy resale you pay an "education fee" to bring the points back into the system.) Marriott is generally less expensive to buy resale, which is good for resale buyers, but bad for developer-purchased owners. Marriott does not have the draw of privileged theme park access.

The similarities: they are both focused on customer service. They both have very low-pressure sales operations. They both have very flexible point-based systems. They are both positioned as luxury brands. They are both expensive. They both have exit paths for current owners that recovers some (but not all) of the purchase price by selling on the open market. They both have active rental markets.

Westgate, in contrast, is absolutely rapacious. They have the reputation as being the absolute worst in terms of sales pressure. They are typically worth zero dollars on the resale market, and charge owners low-four-figures to get out of their ownership--if they even give an owner that option. They sometimes do not, leaving default as the only way out. Resale owners are basically pariahs. No one is clamoring to rent Westgate timeshares. Their resorts have that gilded faux-luxury feel that is barely skin-deep. I wouldn't wish a Westgate tour (let alone ownership) on my worst enemy.

I like the MVC and DVC comparison. Both have pros and cons but they cater to similar and yet different people. I think maybe where DVC started to decline was when it grew too big too fast, diluting the perks and benefits of the program. And its growing even more. What was once a boutique and exclusive membership experience is now shared by the masses? Disney’s staffing and IT did not adjust proportionately to the growth in membership. Though I don’t know how it can as the product and annual dues are already so expensive as it is. Are MVC dues as expensive as DVC’s? Don’t get me wrong. DVC is still a great product IMO. Just not as good as it used to be. Not that I know from experience. Just what I’ve been hearing,

Speaking of MVC. I’d love to learn more about it. But I get so confused with the different systems you mentioned like legacy weeks and points. Any good YouTube videos you can recommend?

 

[Cfabar1]

My understanding with Marriott resale is that you can only stay at the Marriott Vacation Club property you purchased your points at. Perhaps that is resale of their “old” system? I have found that to be an eliminating factor for me.

I did a Marriott virtual tour once, and it was done in a very shady way. Additionally, I was offered Marriott points in exchange for the tour. What was not shared with me was that my wife had to attend the virtual tour to get the points. They knew I was interested in the points, and knew that she was not available. After the tour they informed me there would be no points solely since she wasn’t there. Poor salesmanship, in my view, and it made me wonder “what else aren’t they telling me about this product”. That small amount of points promotion (Maybe worth $80 or so) and that experience has made me feel highly uncomfortable about ever buying a MVC product, and seriously question buying some of their acquired timeshares like Vistana, Westin, and even Hyatt, which currently I think is the best system. To be honest, the tour felt highly disingenuous as well, due to a badly working “fake office background” they were overlaying onto the Teams meeting.

I do know a DVC members also like HIlton Grand Vacations. Might be willing to give them a try. I think the best system is Hyatt Residence Club, if you want to stay where they have resorts And aren’t too worried about MVC.

 

[sethschroeder]

I provided a link in my earlier response you missed ? Obviously your only point was to make your point.

1) You didn't respond to me and as I don't always go fully through every thread every time I did not see it.
2) Why yes it did back up my point of "who cares" as it wouldn't be of any relevance to DVC as a whole.

In case you missed it this is where that specific comment line came from:

We don’t know how long little to no ROFR is going to last, however, I do think sales prices for the resale resorts are going to have to continue to drop, especially with maintenance fees inevitable rise. People and businesses throughout Florida are in for a major awakening after the hurricanes this past year. Several companies and individuals I know are seeing their property insurance premiums double in the coming year. Those realities are going to hit DVC as well, and I would not be surprised to see Vero Beach or HH have dues around $18 in a couple years. Orlando will definitely feel this impact in some way or another as well.

They would not be surprised for Vero Beach/HH to surpass $18/point in MFs within 2-3 years. To hit that they would need record increases every single of the next 3 years surpassing 11.85% on VB and 18.85% on HH.

VB's largest increase was 11.1% ever (7.6% this year) and HH's largest increase was 14.7% back in 2007 (6.5% this year).

So yes when I saw your link it backs up that there is no factual information to insurance driving a large enough increase to really impact DVC in a material way regarding resale value.

 

[E2ME2]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

Interesting-
I picked up some SSR for ~$88 and AKV for ~$125 mid-COVID, and a small BCV for $140
BCV has already dipped below $140 recently, and I'm hoping it's price stays depressed for awhile, until I can afford to buy some more
I think Feb. 2023 may provide some resale opportunities, as Feb. prices are usually pretty good due to folks wanting to get out from under MFs.
Add a recession/economic downturn, and maybe it will be a great President's Day Sale for DVC-Resale

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

Aulani: $80pp
Aul subsidized: $100pp

 

[Brian Noble]

My understanding with Marriott resale is that you can only stay at the Marriott Vacation Club property you purchased your points at.

Not so.

If you buy a week, your options are to stay at that resort, or use Interval International to exchange. Marriott owners have priority over non-Marriott owners to exchange into other Marriott resorts. These are true whether you buy resale or retail. There may be other advantages that apply to both resale and retail buyers, but I do not know what they are, or whether they are differentiated.

If you buy points, you have to pay the "education fee" mentioned above. This is not optional, but after doing so, points are points no matter how you bought them. The cost on the resale market plus the education fee is still quite a bit less than buying from Marriott directly.

You may be thinking of Diamond, which does work in the way you describe.

 

[Brian Noble]

Speaking of MVC. I’d love to learn more about it. But I get so confused with the different systems you mentioned like legacy weeks and points.

If you want to make timesharing a hobby, then it might be worth going down the weeks road. Otherwise, just buy points and forget about it. It's much simpler and more familiar. I don't own with them, so can't comment on the ongoing costs, but figure they will be comparable to DVC.

 

[Samfar]

I’m gonna make some guesses.

June 2023 lowest price available (excluding auctions):
SSR: 88
OKW: 80
AKV: 110
VGC: 220
RVA: 110
BLT: 135
BWV:108
BRV: 90

Poly, VGF, and Beach Club seam hard to guess for me so I’m not gonna and I don’t follow the prices of the ones not near parks.

Anyone else want to make some guesses?

Riviera is a new resort. Might not go that low. Maybe 125 would be a good buy

 

[DVCsloth]

BCV has already dipped below $140 recently, and I'm hoping it's price stays depressed for awhile, until I can afford to buy some more

We were thinking of adding on at BCV, but now our travel times have changed, and it looks like 1br's are regularly available, so we'll just use some of our resale points for it.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

Riviera is a new resort. Might not go that low. Maybe 125 would be a good buy

Perhaps, but I’m guessing resale restrictions will matter more and more as time passes, at least for the next several years. The oddball contract has already sold below $125 this year. I haven’t seen any under $120 yet but I think it’s very very in play for the next few months.

 

[DVCsloth]

Perhaps, but I’m guessing resale restrictions will matter more and more as time passes, at least for the next several years. The oddball contract has already sold below $125 this year. I haven’t seen any under $120 yet but I think it’s very very in play for the next few months.

I think the restrictions are lowering the resale value, but once Riviera sells out it should rebound pretty well. Especially as we get closer to 2042 BCV/BWV expiration. All bets off if the economy doesn't recover obviously.

 

[Samfar]

I think the restrictions are lowering the resale value, but once Riviera sells out it should rebound pretty well. Especially as we get closer to 2042 BCV/BWV expiration. All bets off if the economy doesn't recover obviously.

You just never know Riviera gets some special incentive to give it the boost to the price it’s worth of. Pure speculation though

 

[AC168]

Just my viewpoint on Marriott as I've owned it for 20+ years and have owned DVC for just a few years -- they are what I would call both reasonably high-end products. The big difference in favor of Marriott is that there are a lot of locations to use your MVC points. DVC basically has five locations - WDW, Disneyland/VGC, HHI, VB, and AUL. Marriott has 50+ places where I might want to visit. If you have young kids and plan to visit WDW or Disnelyand, I think DVC is great. Marriott is more flexible.

Having stayed in a lot of timeshares through the years, I have to say the one I'd like to own at most is Hyatt Kaanapali Beach. One day, I'll get a floating week there and then stop buying any more timeshares.

I do have to say I've been happy with my Marriott purchase and my DVC purchase and am looking to add more DVC points as I do have a young one and the stays on Disney Campus are worth it to me. And this may sound strange, but I do view our MVC and DVC purchases as "money savers" in the long run. For our last Ko Olina Marriott trip, I paid the equivalent of $2,700 in dues for $7,000-ish worth of room, and for our last VGC trip, I paid the equivalent of $2,200 in dues for $6,000-ish worth of rooms. Even if you add in an amount for the initial purchase prices, we still saved money so to speak.

 

[Cfabar1]

You just never know Riviera gets some special incentive to give it the boost to the price it’s worth of. Pure speculation though

The time we will truly learn how the restrictions affect resale value is in about 10-12 years. Right now people are enchanted by the beauty of the resort.