2023 resale price speculation

[sndral]

Riviera is a new resort. Might not go that low. Maybe 125 would be a good buy

On p. 51 of the ROFR thread there’s a Riv resale contract awaiting ROFR @ $115, maybe it’s an outlier & we won’t see that price again or maybe it’s a harbinger of Riv’s resale value .

 

[AstroBlasters]

Riviera is a new resort. Might not go that low. Maybe 125 would be a good buy

You can get a fully loaded contract through Fidelity right now for $113.

 

[Nursemanit]

You can get a fully loaded contract through Fidelity right now for $113.

No that is a BRV contract - Fidelity is known for their record-keeping accuracy.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

No that is a BRV contract - Fidelity is known for their record-keeping accuracy.

Lol…notwithstanding that, Fidelity seems a good bit cheaper on average.
Maybe if the board sponsor’s commissions weren’t a % of sales price…

 

[Sandisw]

Lol…notwithstanding that, Fidelity seems a good bit cheaper on average.
Maybe if the board sponsor’s commissions weren’t a % of sales price…

As far as I am aware, Fidelity, as well as other brokers also charges sellers a % of sale price.

I have sold through different brokers and paid the % of sale each time

 

[Samfar]

You can get a fully loaded contract through Fidelity right now for $113.

Yes that’s a BRV contract

 

[Cfabar1]

As far as I am aware, Fidelity, as well as other brokers also charges sellers a % of sale price.

I have sold through different brokers and paid the % of sale each time

I think all brokers work that way as well. I suppose the board sponsor, as well as other Disney centric resale firms have a vested interest in prices for DVC staying higher, unlike Fidelity or RedWeek which function as ”general” timeshare brokers and are not DVC-exclusive. Perhaps this could explain the price discrepancy. It could also just be coincidental, that their sellers are picking them because they know they will get top dollar, and fight for them as sellers.

It is funny how gleeful everyone is about prices dropping, given today’s buyer, statistically anyways, will be tomorrow’s seller.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

As far as I am aware, Fidelity, as well as other brokers also charges sellers a % of sale price.

I have sold through different brokers and paid the % of sale each time

Oh ok - thought it was a flat commission.

 

[heynowirv]

Oh ok - thought it was a flat commission.

No as far as I know they all work for a certain percentage of the sale price. It can fluctuate from company to company and time of year.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

It is funny how gleeful everyone is about prices dropping, given today’s buyer, statistically anyways, will be tomorrow’s seller.

You are talking to a group of people who want to add on more points. Of course we are gleeful that it is getting cheaper to do so.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

It is funny how gleeful everyone is about prices dropping, given today’s buyer, statistically anyways, will be tomorrow’s seller.

I believe less than 1 in 4 OKW contracts has been resold even once in 30 years. So I'm not sure what statistics you're referencing.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I am hoping prices will fall, btw, because I would like to buy a contract next year, and want to pay very little money for it. I feel that is a fairly normal human desire?

 

[Sandisw]

I think all brokers work that way as well. I suppose the board sponsor, as well as other Disney centric resale firms have a vested interest in prices for DVC staying higher, unlike Fidelity or RedWeek which function as ”general” timeshare brokers and are not DVC-exclusive. Perhaps this could explain the price discrepancy. It could also just be coincidental, that their sellers are picking them because they know they will get top dollar, and fight for them as sellers.

It is funny how gleeful everyone is about prices dropping, given today’s buyer, statistically anyways, will be tomorrow’s seller.

Fidelty, at one point, was the recommended resale broker by DVC. So, I am not sure that is why they are on the lower side.

I wonder If people use them when they want a quicker sale and lower gets you there. Once a buyer offers and you accept, your contract is sold either to them or DVD..

The dropping prices is one of the reasons why my advice is and always will be that resale value should not be part of equation and always seems as a bonus if you have to sell.

Way too many variables, and ROFR in the hands of DVD, plays a big role in it.

The other piece is not every seller is losing money on these low prices. I would only need to sell my SSR contract for $81/pt, and get all my purchase price back…since I bought it for $73/pt just 5 years ago.

 

[Nabas]

To be clear, this is exactly the opposite of how they handled the drops in prices in 2009-11 and summer 2020. They suspended ROFR entirely and let absolute nonsense firesales go through. Some posters on this board bought at unimaginably low prices. The 2020 posts are still in the ROFR threads, and you can check the county’s sales database yourself to verify (I did).

Yes! People who think DVC resale prices never drop were not watching the market in 2009-11.

 

[RoseGold]

It is funny how gleeful everyone is about prices dropping, given today’s buyer, statistically anyways, will be tomorrow’s seller.

Plenty of us own a lot of this, so we care about the value, and we monitor the value. Its not "gleeful" to pay attention to value.

And I'm not gleeful. I'm feeling like I should have sold some last year. Now, I'm going to be stuck a while.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

You are talking to a group of people who want to add on more points. Of course we are gleeful that it is getting cheaper to do so.

yes, and who most likely already qualify for member benefits, hence are more likely to buy resale at this point.

But as RoseGold said, it’s not gleeful to pay attention and comment on the market. Next 6-9 months are going to be extremely bumpy IMO.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I bought SSR at 69 a point in 2006
BLT at about 100 when it opened….

I could (but won’t) give it away and be ahead of the game…..

That being said the value in DVC has slipped in the Chapek rein. Chapek saw DVC as another source of one time income. He didn’t think of building a 50 year relationship with his “guests”….
One and done doesn’t work for the long term success of any corporation.

Wishful thinking say, that things will get better under the “new“ leadership….
Iger has proven he understand guests relationships.
will he undue chapel’s mess over night….. No

until them people will find better places to vacation DVC prices will fall….. Maybe on the Direct side too…. Maybe not because until the units are sold Disney rents them as cash hotel rooms…

if the prices continue to fall, and i was thinking DVC was on my like to have it list I would consider buying it, IF I was ok going to Disney without annual passes and without Dinning plans…..

i.e. if you are going to go anyway…. buying DVC when the prices are down is a no brainer…

From what I have seen over the last 15 years is Disney finances DVC controls as a service, yes 9.9 percent isn’t great, but it also has not changed….

If the prices get attractive enough I may consider purchasing resale 9don’t tell anyone ) just to rent it….

However, whether or not someone buy DVC or not needs to be a decision they are comfortable with…

what make perfect sense for one person maybe a horrible decision for another…. Or the other way around

 

[HIRyeDVC]

If the prices get attractive enough I may consider purchasing resale 9don’t tell anyone ) just to rent it….

The rental market might get bumpy too. The rental market might also be flooded with owners. I think the problem with DVC is that there are way too many members and points in the system and not enough buyers and renters. By the looks of the board sponsors rental site, the only resort people are looking to rent is Beach Club.

 

[Bearval]

To be clear, this is exactly the opposite of how they handled the drops in prices in 2009-11 and summer 2020. They suspended ROFR entirely and let absolute nonsense firesales go through. Some posters on this board bought at unimaginably low prices. The 2020 posts are still in the ROFR threads, and you can check the county’s sales database yourself to verify (I did).

You cannot compare 2009-2011 to summer 2020 they were driven by two complete different situations. In 2009-2011 the bottom dropped out of tourism due to the affects recession and WDW was even giving free dining to attract guests. Disney stopped ROFR because they didn't want to get stuck having to pay maintenance fees on rooms they could not fill. In summer 2020 people WANTED to travel but could not due to restrictions, DVD knew this would end and pent up demand would create buyers.

 

[Bearval]

1) You didn't respond to me and as I don't always go fully through every thread every time I did not see it.
2) Why yes it did back up my point of "who cares" as it wouldn't be of any relevance to DVC as a whole.

In case you missed it this is where that specific comment line came from:


They would not be surprised for Vero Beach/HH to surpass $18/point in MFs within 2-3 years. To hit that they would need record increases every single of the next 3 years surpassing 11.85% on VB and 18.85% on HH.

VB's largest increase was 11.1% ever (7.6% this year) and HH's largest increase was 14.7% back in 2007 (6.5% this year).

So yes when I saw your link it backs up that there is no factual information to insurance driving a large enough increase to really impact DVC in a material way regarding resale value.

I think the real rise in maintenance fees for both Vero Beach/HH will be actual maintenance/repair of the buildings and infrastructure as they age due to the locations (beach/ocean) of these resorts. It is amazing the damage salt air/water and blowing sand can due to a structure that is not from a storm just normal wear an tear.