DanCali
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 9, 2023
- Messages
- 883
Tbf, the product is already intentionally being devalued if you’re only looking at it from its resale value.
And you’d pay up because most aren’t buying with the intent that their timeshare has investment value. Most are buying for better accommodations and regular stays at Disney. As it’s been said plenty, we here aren’t the regular DVC member. Resale savvy owners are the minority, probably by significant margin.
You have VGF and Poly that are selling resale at $150 and you have Riviera (a highly comparable resort in many ways) that is nearing $100 and trending down. The Riviera-style resale restrictions are what will cause the greater future disparity in resale/direct prices.
If the sales strategy relies mostly on uneducated buyers, then the product can't possibly be a good investment for the educated ones. Personally, I kind of feel obligated to explore better alternatives given the realities set by restrictions I don't control.
For me, it’ll be less so an issue about resale restrictions and what is better: direct or resale for long term; it’ll be more about owning where you want to stay. I think as time passes and the restrictions become more prevalent and 2042 looms closer and passes, 7mo availability will be much tighter so you better be happy with your home resorts (with an edge to direct/grandfathered points since they’ll have the most flexibility and options).
Of course an unrestricted, fully functional product is "better" and easier to use. But at what cost? How many 5-figure products are out there where you lose 50%, 60% or 70% of what you paid upfront after 10 days? A car costs about the same but doesn't even come close in terms of depreciation with all the talk of "drive it off the lot". Rationalizing things with "I plan to hold it for 50 years" maybe sweetens the blow but doesn't change that reality.
A timeshare may not be the best "investment" but it doesn't have to be a terrible one either. In a futuristic hypothetical world where resale contracts are 1-resort only and, consequently, resale prices are in the gutter, I would much rather use my available capital to buy 300 points (100 at 3 separate resorts where I'd want to stay) than buy just 100 points direct for the same price:
(i) I can use 150 points to vacation (the comparable direct buyer has only 100)
(ii) I can rent out the remaining 150 points to cover all my dues on 300 points (the direct buyer pays dues for the life of the contract)
(iii) If I ever sell my purchase(s) a couple of decades before expiration, I can recover much of what I paid upfront (the direct buyer is guaranteed a huge capital loss in that world)
In sum, with that strategy I have the same upfront cost, and I get 50% more vacation, I don't pay any dues for what I own (which are the majority of the ownership cost), and I reduce the risk of a capital loss substantially. What is "better" is totally in the eye of the beholder! But from a financial perspective only, it's not hard to see what's better.
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